2024 Bullpen

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  • #239374
    858booyah
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    With TON off the books we should have enough coin to get Matsui and maybe a Phil Maton if payroll is rumored to be where it should be. Yankees may overpay for Matsui tho. Be nice to have him as insurance for Helsley.

    #239385
    LACardFan
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    The Cardinals have added “depth” to the bullpen.

    Now, they can trade for quality upgrades (Tyler Holton, Hunter Harvey).

    #239389
    jj-cf-stl
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    Are you trading prospects or lineup regulars LA?

    #239407
    gscottar
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    Paid - Annual

    Somoene like Clase or Hader would be great but I think we all know the Cardinals are going to do something less splashy. It is the Cardinal Way.

    #239418
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    I can already see they have tweeked their model. The Cardinal Way is evolving, because it had to.

    Have they ever spent 25mil AAV on a SP? 23mil COULD buy significant quality going forward. 75 days until ST.

    #239422
    gscottar
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    Paid - Annual

    Have they ever spent 25mil AAV on a SP? 23mil COULD buy significant quality going forward. 75 days until ST.

    The way they structured Gray’s contract is interesting and potentially foolish. Did they backload it in order to spend more this year to improve the club or to just save money this year? When his salary goes from $10M in 2024 to $25M in 2025 to $35M in 2026 are they going to say “see our yearly spending is going up so get off of our back” even though it won’t be on new players.

    I am skeptical of their motives and hope to be proven wrong.

    #239425
    Gagliano
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    Paid - Annual

    I’d guess that they figure at least one player from the minor playing at minimum takes the spot of a veteran in 2025. Then another from the minors takes a spot in the rotation in 2026. Those savings would cover the increase in Gray’s contract.

    #239430
    gscottar
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    Paid - Annual

    That is probably what they are thinking but it would be presumptuous to think they would get the same production from the current minor league player. If they don’t bring back Goldy in 2025 will they be able to replicate that production from a league minimum player? Maybe if it is Walker or Gorman.

    #239437
    LACardFan
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    Are you trading prospects or lineup regulars LA?

    For Holton, I would center a trade around Dylan Carlson. Tigers only had one good outfielder last year. They have since picked up Canha to fill the other corner. They need a CF.

    For Harvey, I would center a trade around Alec Burleson. The Nationals don’t have a 1B, the Cardinals have a 1B masquerading as an OF, because he is blocked at 1B.

    #239456
    Gagliano
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    Paid - Annual

    Hi gscott-

    I think of Lynn as the one to be replace next year. If we can’t get 5th starter production in 2025 from one or another of Hence, Roby, Graceffo, Hjerpe, Robberse, McGreevy, or Kloffenstein that is at least equal to what they get from Lynn this year, they’re in deep doodoo. And a second of them in 2026. And that doesn’t include Thompson. I think the bet on saved payroll is not unreasonable.

    #239463
    gscottar
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    It is certainly possible that one of those young guys asserts themself into a productive regular on a cheap salary but we won’t know until it happens.

    I also think it will be interesting to see who the starting 1B will be in 2025. Goldy’s $25M salary could potentially be replaced by a much cheaper player. That will probably depend on what kind of year Goldy has in 2024.

    #239470
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    LA – So you are along the Sosa for Romero, type of swaps. Was curious who was on the table for us.

    I’m all in on Harvey and willing to add.

    Holton: Seems like forcing Carlson on them, as maybe their 4th OF. STL should.

    I like 4 of our relievers. Those two would make 6, and still have budget room to add quality.

    #239474
    blingboy
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    Paid - Annual

    If Carlson is traded, who is our CF capable 4th OFer?

    #239475
    LACardFan
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    Free

    So you are along the Sosa for Romero, type of swaps

    Yes, but for these two, the Cardinals might need to add a prospect or reliever going back in addition to the core player.

    Both of them have ERAs that start with “2”.

    #239477
    LACardFan
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    If Carlson is traded, who is our CF capable 4th OFer?

    Pick up somebody like Adam Duvall on a one year deal.

    Or bring back Harrison Bader, or sign Kevin Kiermeier.

    But you have two ways of acquiring players – trading, or using cash. For some types of returns, trades are better.

    #239519
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    GS, I’m guessing they backloaded Gray to have more $ available this offseason.

    Maybe they are looking at Goldy coming off the books, or one of Lynn/Gibson declined as Gagliano suggested could happen.

    Even if the FO didn’t want to go “splashy” and long term on Hader, the Gray backloading could allow funds for a rent-a-closer like David Robertson, Will Smith, etc.

    #239531
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    GS, I’m guessing they backloaded Gray to have more $ available this offseason.

    That is the hope or maybe they are just penching pennies until the Bally Sports fiasco is resolved.

    #239534
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Of the 20 pitchers Brian lists as 40man members, half are either locked into a role on the active roster, or have no mlb experience at all. The rotation, Helsey & Gallegos; and Robberse / Kloffenstein / Fernandez (Rule5).

    Of the remaining 10 pitchers, half have over 60 career MLB IP, and the other five under 40 IP.

    The career 60+ IP group is Romero (age 27), Thompson (26), King (29), Liberatore (22) and Pallante (25).

    Under 40 career IP pitchers are Rom, Naile, Robertson, Zuniga and O’Brien.

    I’d be willing to expect (L) Romero and (L) Thompson have bullpen roles, with Helsley and Gallegos.

    #239569
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
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    Free

    jj:

    It’s tweak and not tweek and I can’t see where they have changed their model at all. If they truly were changing their model then they would have signed Gray, traded for Glasnow and traded for Cease. That is changing your model. So, far and they could still do something more, but so far it is buy cheap and rely on Memphis. That has not worked for a decade and will never work in today’s market. If they want to put a team on the field that can contend and not just compete they need to remove the word budget from their vocabulary. They need to spend up to about 250 million then they’ll be ready to play baseball.

    #239571
    blingboy
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    Paid - Annual

    I don’t necessarily agree with that Nathan. It is true that to contend, you have to have a team that can contend. But you do not have to have that team on opening day. We will not know if the model has changed until next year’s trade deadline.

    #239573
    KeepComingBack
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    Free

    If Carlson is traded, who is our CF capable 4th OFer

    Mo’s already got his lineup set. Carlson is your 4th outfielder. Until Scott is a major leaguer, Carlson is a Cardinal. Or Maybe Carlson is healthy and winds up back in the conversation as a regular. In which case there’s lots of options as to what happens. Especially If Winn can produce on offense.

    #239586
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    Nate, thanks for the differing opinion. I agree ownership hasn’t changed their model, by bumping the player budget to 250mil. It’s why I used “tweeking” the model, because Bill still has the budget constraints in place.

    Gray and Glasnow blows the budget for 2024. Or, if you can push O’Neill off on TBR, you have +5.5mil available.

    The prospect package for Cease spends a huge amount of prospect capital we need to have developing (which we are more capable of blocking now). You’re short maybe 3mil salary though, and the pen never got addressed.
    —–
    In short, your pen wrecks what you built, imo, and if Glasgow misses time….Thompson, Libby, Rom, etc.
    vs
    The FO now has a rotation built on IP, instead of hope, in place, and 23/24mil in hand to add however they see fit. That’s a major tweek from 23′
    —–
    I choose the 250mil plan first!

    Within their budget? I like the FO offseason better than yours, IF they continue to add pitchers up to the budget limits. I don’t expect as many of our GS to be blowouts, but the pen still needs quality arms added. I would like that combination of arms added to the staff, while keeping our farmhands. To be continued…

    #239592
    PadsFS
    Participant

    jj-cf-stl

    Gray and Glasnow blows the budget for 2024. Or, if you can push O’Neill off on TBR, you have +5.5mil available.

    Glasnow will not happen. Zero chance of that imo.

    But, what you’re saying is not true. With Gray’s backloaded deal, he is only getting $10M in 2024. Likewise, O’Neill is gone. That puts our current payroll at $165.5M and a 5% increase on last years’ payroll should have us around $184M.

    So that backloaded deal and the O’Neill savings gave Mozeliak a $20M reprieve. Glasnow is set to make $25M in arbitration, so that’s simply a matter of trading Edman or Matz to get under the likely budget of $184M (active roster payroll)

    Now, they won’t have anything for a reliever at that point but they may be fine with Robertson, Fernandez, O’Brien and the Memphis guys.

    #239596
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I sure hope we don’t pay Tyler Glasnow $25M to give us 100 innings. That would be a waste of money. If we are going to trade for another starter he would not be on my wish list.

    #239601
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    I agree Pads.
    Gray and Glasgow blow the original 50mil budget. Grays backloaded 10 pays for Cease, plus 2mil, and O’Neills 5.5, leaves 7.5mil available.

    Enough to at least have just signed Will Smith at his 1/5mil as closer. Thank you for the correction. Still payed the prospect package on Cease.
    —–
    Nate,
    The ceiling is higher with Cease and Glasnow, and Will Smith helps the pen with remaining funds (if I may). The floor has issues of durability (Glasnow) and effectiveness (Smith).

    Lynn / Gibson raises the floor of the rotation with 23/24mil available. If the FO were to add two David Robertson rentals, I would like their roster better, and that they found a way to keep the prospects spent on Cease.

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