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Thanks, all. I posted then promptly got COVID. Doing much better. I assume the Cards’ loss streak was due to their worries about my health and my improvement today brought them back.
Ideally the Rule 5 is cancelled before the Cards have to make the roster decisions. That would make this all much easier! But I believe they will have to set their rosters before Dec. 1, and the Rule 5 won’t be cancelled before then. Do you risk players by not rostering them, counting on a cancellation?
jnevel-
Interesting point re risk vs. protection. Thanks. As usual, you make good points.
Baez, Winquest (who has been added!) and Odle make sense. I think Ledbetter’s surge warrants addition. After that early August surge, Chase Davis is 1 of 22, so that drops both my interest and worry. Given the needs for bullpen arms, and the risk of being taken, I think I’d protect Rincon, Clemente. That would reduce the list to 6 and moot the rest of my discussion.
But following up on that discussion, glad to see Gorman back up in that I assume this is a last chance for him. Odds seem higher they will cut bait if it doesn’t work out.
I know the bullpen gets grief, and much is deserved. But Soriano is 7th in the NL in appearances, Bruihl 11th, Stanek 13th, and O’Brien 21st, per Fangraphs. How much of the meltdowns have been about overusage? Stanek looked pretty good to me for most of the season. I’d lean toward a bullpen with Libby and Bruihl left, O’Brien, Stanek, Winquest, Gastelum, righties, Graceffo as an inning eater, and more free agent to round things out. Hope that Libby/Winquest/Gastelum/new arm can do better than Romero/Svanson/Fernandez/scrum of this year. with Rincon, Clemente, Mautz, and Santana contenders to knock at the door. Really interested to see what Winquest does these next weeks.
I like jnevel’s list, with the addition of Clemente. I’d drop Henderson given the injuries this year. That gets us to 9 folks you’d like to add: Baez, Odle, Winquest, Cho, Davis, Lin, Rincon, Ledbetter, Clemente.
Including Rajcic, they have 40 on the 40 man, so you’d need to drop 9 guys. Probably 10 because I’d think they will add someone to a May-type contract again.
I get 7 fairly easy drops–Ferguson, Fernandez, Rajcic, Strzelski, Svanson, Prieto, Urias. But then it gets hard for me.
I think my last three adds would be Odle (far away from big leagues), Lin (less confidence he will make it) and Rincon. My next three drops/trades would be Scott, Gorman, and Pages. I think I keep the latter. Scott has shown signs on offense of late, an OPS of .851 for August. He’s still just 25. Pages is the safety blanket for the pitchers in case neither Crooks nor Bernal can handle MLB. Gorman has an OPS of .928 in August, and perhaps they can still fix him.They didn’t use Ferguson in Cincy despite a tired bullpen. Any bets on whether he is dropped today? Hjerpe last pitched 5 days ago and could give innings. Or Winquest or Rincon? I’d bet they are short a bunch of relievers today.
Wetherholt has walked 10 times (to 27 ABs) starting July 31. His previous 10 BB were over 88 ABs. I wonder if he felt the need to do more there for a too long stretch. I’d be curious about stats on the sorts of pitches he swung at and if he’s backed off of some of them.
Jordan hitting being unknown seems right. His last 30 days, his OPS is .704. Over a season that would be good for 5th on the team. I continue to be intrigued by the idea that he reverted when he first came to the big leagues, and I’d like to see if he can adjust. I’d rather see him (or possibly Gorman when they think he’s ready) rather than Urias.
Interesting that they’re getting all their lefties in the lineup. Except Torres. That AB yesterday where he couldn’t make contact when it was needed? He’s 3 for 20 this month.
Thanks, Keep. Where are you getting the metrics? I’d like to go look.
Small samples certainly are less reliable. I don’t expect Jordan’s numbers to hold up, but they’ve still been a pleasant surprised.
Din-din tonight was baked salmon, rice with some dill and parmesan, corn on the cob, washed down with some Irish stout and dessert of frozen Girl Scouts thin mints. I just yesterday started to cook fish. Maybe I’ll need to learn about fiddlers.
I liked Herrera’s HR in part because it was on two strikes and he’d fouled off a few. Here’s hoping it’s a sign of things to come.
8 strikeouts and no walks for Leahy through 5. Add me to the group pleasantly surprised by this rotation. They could use a top of the rotation ace or two, but they’ll keep you in most games. Problems are the bullpen and low production, especially CF, LF, and 3B.
Bling-
Agree re Henderson. I’m probably not fair to him. I’ve generally had him between Mautz and Hansen, with Mautz my favorite, then Henderson got hurt and we’ve not seen much, so I figure he’s likely drifted down the list just a little. But maybe. Clarke late in the year, yup. I don’t see a chance early in the year. He’s gonna get so little AA time and coming back from weird health problems…and with control that is only gonna hit the mascot by accident instead of intentionally. I look at the AA guys and figure none of them start above AAA, with Doyle or Franklin probably in the lead for that.
And just went to baseball savant to look at Outs Above Average. Jordan is +3 at 3rd. Tied with Arenado. Masyn is better on that, +10. I’m not great at understanding these stats, but my understanding is that range is more important for Outs Above Average. But I’d think both that and arm would be big Winn advantages.
Just went to the Fielding Bible, and they show the same, Jordan +5, Winn +3.
Hiya Keep-
Curious where you got that. I was surprised and perhaps I’m looking in the wrong place. I went to fangraphs Card stats and sorted on DRS to get the Jordan 5, Winn 3. Where are you finding the 16/2.5? Thanks. Stats lie, but I’d hope I at least got the right stats!
Cranny-
I’ve been wondering the same thing. I expect they’ll bring 6 starters to spring, the current 5 and Mathews, and let spring sort it out. Maybe an injury. Maybe they move Libby to the pen. Maybe they move Dobbins or Mathews back down to Memphis to be the 6th starter.
Hopefully Roby, Fitts, and Cijntje are all healthy and at AAA getting close to challenging for the big league squad. Henderson possibly, too, but I’m less sold on him. Maybe Mautz, at least till Roby, Fitts, or Cijntje clearly passes him as MLB ready.
But then I think…they want to do the May model. So what if they spot someone like May for next year’s rotation? Then it’s 7 starters at the beginning of spring. New buy, Pallante and Leahy get three of the spots. Libby most likely to the pen. Duel between McGreevy, Dobbins, and Mathews for the last two spots.
He definitely passes the eye test at 3B. I’m surprised, too. Fangraphs has him at +5DRS at 3B, second only to Wetherholt.
My bet is that Je Baez switches to 3B next year at Memphis, with Ortiz sticking at Springfield given his late start to the year. We’ll see.
I find the theory that he’s reverted to his old form as he tries to deal with MLB pitching interesting and plausible. If Memphis taught him something new, maybe he can use the offseason and spring to cement it.
Coming into tonight, we were 4 back in the playoff race and 3 ahead of the team with the 6th spot in the lottery. If Walker is out for significant time, we might just drift toward the latter pretty quickly.
Good night for Dobbins. Twice a runner at third with one out and they can’t get them home.
jnevel-
I was struck by the same thing. The Yanks had a lefty face him, presumably for a reason. Any sense of what has changed for Herrera?
He’s fanned 8 times in those 27 ABs, which is a lot. But before he struck out a remarkable 40 times in 73 ABs. Curious if we’ll hear about him on the podcast in the morning…
Maybe Hancel Rincon, though probably not. Or Randel Clemente. Since June 26, he’s fanned 30 in 15.2 ip at AA, giving up just 2 runs, both in the same outing. He’s walked 12, which is less than ideal. But that’s a lot of k’s.
Burly’s wRC+ is up to 129, and Walker’s is down to 130. Their OPS is .830 and .834, respectively. They both now have 2.4 bWAR, though Walker leads in fWAR 3.2 to 2.3.
Burly and Walker’s OPS is roughly 100 points better than the next on the team, Wetherholt at .738, followed by Herrera (.732) and (in many fewer ABs) Torres at .725.
Hah!
And it’s Mathews who gets sent down to make room for Ferguson. So looks like we will get run of Dobbins in the rotation. I had thought someone official said they wanted to keep Mathews up, but maybe the extensive use of relievers caused this move? Dunno.
Either more work for Baez or keeping his rookie eligibility for next year.
But I’m surprised it’s Prieto instead of Saggese. Saggese is more versatile defensively and seems to have been hitting better at Memphis. Saggese’s OPS was .808 in July to Prieto’s .681. Maybe they have Saggese working on something and want him to continue? Or they want him to play, but Prieto’s job will be to ride the bench? Or they’re hoping Prieto can show something so we can get something for him in the offseason when we need to clear roster space? Weird.
But yeah, I’d think of a lot of Torres and Fermin in LF, at least for the next 10 days or so.
In his last 7 outings, Mautz has given up 3, 0, 0, 2, 0, 3, and 3 runs. That’s 11 runs in 11.1 ip, with 12 walks. I’d guess they don’t think he’s ready, but think he has enough to offer that if they can let him develop more before throwing him to the wolves he might be ok.
Springfield has a 3 game lead in the 2nd half, and the 2nd place team doesn’t really count since they won the first half, so it’s really a 6 game lead.
Are they creating a core–Doyle, Franklin, Hjerpe, Eagen, Lin, Clarke when through rehab, maybe even bullpen guys like Santana and Clemente; position players Raniel, Je Baez, Ortiz, Ragsdale, Peete, Cho–to go for the Texas League championship this year and the International League championship next year, and then play in St. Louis as Memphis Mafia 2 in 2028?
