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Agree with jnevel re the soft sell, but I’d offer Fedde rather than Matz. Agreed that Matz would bring more, but Matz also seems harder to me to replace this year. If we can make it to the playoffs, he and Romero are the main two lefty relievers. I don’t see anyone on the farm ready to take that role. If everyone stays healthy, then McGreevy can replace Fedde. (Or maybe Matthews if he proves healthy and turns it on these next two months.
As a trivia point, Daniel Shoptaw, C70, got his start as a community member here (or perhaps on a precursor of this site?) many years back. Long enough that he got married and has had two kids, with one already in college.
Thanks again, Brian!
Did you think about ranking Pozo? Probably not as I think he might have just crossed over from rookie eligibility. He has 125 PA, so is under the limit there, barely. He’s only played in 36 games, so still is under the limit there. But looks like he was in the majors for 35 days in 2021. So he probably hit the limit for number of days on an active roster some time in April of this year. I’m curious where you would have placed him were he still rookie eligible. Mostly I’m trying to figure out what people think we have found in him. Thanks!
Thanks, Brian. Is Hansen pitching better than Mautz? I’ve only watched a couple innings of them, so can’t draw from that to talk about differences in stuff. Mautz’ ERA is clearly not as good as Hansen’s, and Hansen just got that 7 ip game, longer than anything from Mautz. But Mautz has struck out 30 (and walked only 8) in 24 ip whereas Hansen has K’d only 26 in 29.2 ip, while walking 13. They have similar 0.75 WHIPs against righties, but Mautz has a 1.38 WHIP vs. righties to 1.84 for Hansen. Mautz’s WHIP is down from last year in Peoria (1.45 last year to 1.17 this) whereas Hansen’s is flat in the 1.3 range in both places. And Mautz is almost exactly one year younger than Hansen.
Thanks for doing the re-rank, Brian. I’ve been looking forward to seeing it. I’ve two questions. First why does Rivas drop? His May has been rough, but his April suggested that his hit tool had improved. I don’t see him as a top prospect, but I figured he would move up a couple spots. Second, could you say more about the gap between Hansen and Mautz? I have them in a similar spot.
I’m happy to have done my part by attending the first two games of the DC series. Can’t make tomorrow, though. If the streak ends, it’s on me.
I guess this makes Donovan the utility guy who will play as much as the starters. One of Donovan, Noot, Scott, Walker, Arenado, Winn, and Gorman will sit most every night (save an occasional game with one as DH, but that forces Contreras, Herrera, or Burly to the bench…), with proportions of missing varying some. When Herrera, Contreras, or Burly sits, Pages starts. Baker and Siani starts are very, very rare. Baker serves as PH, Siani as PR and defensive sub late in the OF.
It will be interesting to see how the 6 man rotation goes. I’m glad Liberatore is getting one more shot at the rotation, and given that it makes sense to let McGreevy stay stretched out and ready to go when there’s an injury or trade.
Thanks for the shout out, Bling. I typed one thing too quickly in that last post. Gorman at 2B, then at 3B when Arenado rests No way is Gorman at SS and I didn’t mean to type that. I meant Donovan in LF but 2B when Gorman rests or is at 3B and maybe SS when Winn rests.
Now, though it looks like Barrero will be backup SS and will otherwise ride the bench as the emergency player, PR, late defensive sub. I think Scott supplants Siani and gets more starts in CF than Siani would have.
If everyone is healthy and doesn’t get traded (but someone will be hurt and/or traded) figure about like this (but I know it’s off a bit)
150 starts each for Arenado (3B) and Contreras (1B/DH)
140 starts each for Noot (around 60 at CF, 60 in LF, 20 in RF), Walker (RF), Donovan (around 100 in LF 40 at 2B), Winn (SS), Gorman (2B, 3B), Herrera (C, DH)
120 starts for Burly (DH/1B)
100 starts for Scott (CF)
70 starts for Pages (C)
20 starts for Barrero (SS)
0 starts for BakerKoperniak is in Memphis and gets the call if Noot, Walker, Arenado, Gorman, Burleson, Donovan, or Contreras gets hurt. Saggese gets the call if Winn gets hurt. Siani gets the call if Scott gets hurt.
I’d guess Gorman at 2B (and at 3B in games Arenado sits; possibly SS when Winn sits) and Donovan in LF (and 2B when Gorman or Arenado sits). Gorman rather than Koperniak on the 26-man. That gives little time for Saggese, so I’m guessing he’s at Memphis getting regular playing time. Helman gets Saggese’s spot. Mostly he gets late inning defensive time and rides the bench in case someone is hurt. Starting 9 of Donovan, Noot, Walker, Arenado, Winn, Gorman, Contreras, Herrera, Burly. Siani and Pages are the main two backups logging nearly all the starts when someone else rests, Baker for PH against lefties late. Saggese, Koperniak, and Scott are in Memphis awaiting the call if someone gets hurt.
I’m not sure Saggese has proved everything at AAA. He’s still working on swing decisions. The AFL likely helped, but would AAA time focused on that help more? I see Herrera as DH against lefties with Pages at C against them. Not sure Saggese gets bats there. Saggese could get starts at 2B against lefties, but I think they need to let Gorman start against lefties to see what he can do. That’s why I’d think Saggese’s only starts would be when Gorman, Winn, or Arenado would need to rest. If Arenado goes and Donovan is at 2nd then I’d think Saggese could not only back up the IF, but he could back up the OF by playing 2B and having Donovan then move to the OF. That would give him a lot of playing time.
I agree that Helman is likely to not see a ton of time, but with the DH, you can really specialize with the bench. If Helman is the “keep on the bench in case of emergencies” guy, and if Pages and Siani get enough starts to rest the main 9 (with Siani freeing Donovan to backup IF and Pages freeing Herrera to back up DH), then seems like the last bench spot could go to a specialist. Having someone who can crush a lefty pitcher late seems like it could be helpful.
Would that bench give Saggese enough playing time? I’d think he’d spell Gorman, Winn, and Arenado, but that’s not so many starts. I’d think they’d let him develop more at AAA with Siani and Helman getting a lot of CF starts with Donovan then backing up IF when not starting in LF. I could see Baker as the 4th bench guy instead of Saggese. His main role would be as a righty PH when the other side puts a southpaw in against Siani, Gorman, or Burly. If there’s an injury to a non-catcher, then Saggese, Koperniak, or Scott would get the call.
Blake-
Congratulations and best wishes for this new chapter of your life. I’m grateful for your contributions and will miss taking them in!
Thanks again for the thoughtful work, jnevel. I wonder if Noot is really set to be LF. Given injury history, I wonder if they make Noot the 4th OF, with Walker getting DH maybe 50 games, new RF and Noot also playing some DH. I suspect Siani stays as CF till Scott’s bat is more ready. His D helps protect against Walker’s weak D. We’re More likely to get a big bat in RF than CF, and they need a big bat. They have catchers with more on the way up so can afford to deal from that position. I wonder what Herrera and Gorman could bring in an RF. What would need to be added to get the bat they need?
jnevel–
Great work. I’m really grateful for it! Three quick thoughts.
1) I share your sense that Mikolas might not be as bad an option as imagined. Per Fangraphs, his xFIP and WAR are virtually identical to Gibson. But… (a) I’ve had some sense that he’s gotten worse as the season goes on and that Gibson hasn’t, and I wonder what that presages. My guts tell me that I’d rather have Gibson next year, but I’ve not put my head into it enough; (b) If it’s Gray, Pallante, Fedde, Mikolas, McGreevy, I’m less sure that I trust the 6th starter options. I’d really like to go into the spring with one more starter and let McGreevy lurk at Memphis for when he’s needed. Maybe later in the year someone else will be ready, but I hate counting on that early in the year. So I’m inclined to bring back both Mikolas and Gibson. But I don’t know how that would limit the rest of the budget.
2) I’m assuming they trade for an OF, and that this trade involves at couple folks on the 40-man. I’d think that Herrera would be attractive as trade bait, and perhaps Gorman, too. We have depth at catcher so can afford to trade Herrera. A two for one would free up another space.
3) I am drifting toward thinking about bringing back Goldy for one more year based on his second half work. Curious what you think about that. So I’d envision an OF of new guy, Siani, Noot. If Walker can hit the low outside pitch, Noot becomes 4th OF. IF of Arenado, Winn, Donovan, Goldy. Contreras at C. Burly/Baker at DH when Contreras isn’t there. Saggese as utility IF. Pages as backup C.
Thanks again. I love this kind of discussion.
Hi Brian-
Good to post. I think I was around more this year than last, and hope to be more in the future. That was an overly busy last decade, and I hope for this next stretch to be slower.
Agreed re Rom. With the shoulder surgery I think you take a chance on waivers.
I find myself second guessing on Goldie. I think he should go, but I wonder if they will work something out. And I especially wonder what has clicked with his bat and if that’s sustainable.
Thanks for doing this, jnevel. I found myself wondering about this very topic this morning.
The Cards now have 40 on the 40-man roster, including guys on the 60 day DL. I’d guess the following won’t be back:
Carpenter
Goldschmidt
Lynn
Rom
Kittredge
MiddletonI think I’d protect all of the six you flag except Granillo, and I’d leave one spot for a Fernandez-style pick of someone unprotected by other teams.
Agreed with jnevel on the Carlson trade. They could have optioned him, no? That likely would have increased his trade value. And maybe I’m missing something and the Cards will do a little tweak to make Armstrong solid, but on the face of it, I’d rather have Gallegos, Leahy, or Roycroft.
I’d think Pallante to Memphis to be the 6th starter. We get depth. If there are any more doubleheaders, better Pallante as the callup. I see Lynn as the 5th best starter right now rather than Mikolas. But hard to see either of those sitting.
Carlson to AAA to get some regular plate appearances, please?
The first stats I saw on Pham’s defense in CF this year are not good. Anyone know more? In principle he can platoon with Siani or come in to PH for him late in a game when Siani faces a lefty.
All of this for just Edman if reports are right? A source calculating value shows it as a plus $17 million deal for the Cards. Really amazing if they managed that.
They finally drafted someone over 6′! I’m trying to figure out why two of their first picks are catchers given that catching seems one of the positions they are relatively solid at and they seem to be going under slot?
My fault for going to the game, folks. I wonder if the Cards would pay for me to stay away in the future!
One other way of looking at the inning eaters is to think about whether they take the ball on their turn. So I took a look. Not sure after all the looking that this will add much.
Last year through the all-star break, 3 guys made at least 17 starts:
Mikolas 19 starts, 5.93 innings per start
Montgomery 18 starts 5.72 innings per start
Flaherty 17 starts 5.45 innings per startMatz and Waino both had 11 starts, with Matz 0-7 and never getting through the 6th, and Waino with a 7.66 ERA
Liberatore and Woodford were the other guys with starts, 14 combined by the break, and both had ERAs about 5.5
This year they have 4 guys with at least 16 starts, each of which should get at least one more before the break.
Mikolas 18 starts, 5.59 innings per start
Lynn 17 starts, 5.15 innings per start
Gibson and Gray both 16 starts, both 5.79 innings per startPerhaps a way of looking at it is that Lynn hasn’t eaten the innings they hoped, that Mikolas, a year older, isn’t going as deep, and that’s part of why the innings eaters haven’t actually eaten more innings. But having 4 guys who take regular turns means that they haven’t had to get past their 6th starter as much as last year. And as 6th starter, this year Pallante has done better as a fill-in starter than Liberatore or Woodford did last year.
