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Re the seek to trade list, I agree with it except for Knizner, whom I would keep unless a better catcher becomes available. I have a feeling Contreras is a serious injury waiting to happen.
the Indians have little to no production in the OF, would packaging a combination of the Yepez, Gomez and Baker group bring back Enyel De Los Santos for a random example?
Yepez and presumably Gomez would be just as unplayable for somebody else as they are for us. For everyday use I mean, which is what the Indians need. These are guys who couldn’t get on the field for a horrible last place team that was scraping up outfielders for a good part of the season.
I figure as soon as we move Baker, Goldy will go down long term and we’ll have to shift guys all around instead of just sticking Baker there. I have no idea what they think they have accomplished by running Goldy out there these last few weeks instead of finding out if Baker can hack it.
For example, the Indians have little to no production in the OF, would packaging a combination of the Yepez, Gomez and Baker group bring back Enyel De Los Santos for a random example?
Probably not. The Guardians probably want someone who is more likely to contribute to their big league roster for a reliever who has been decent over the past two seasons.
O’neill at $6+M next year needs to be dealt, even international money or something is better than nothing, and I’m sure some OF needy team would take a flyer at under $8M.
I think the Cardinals should try packaging O’Neill, Carlson, Dunn & Gallegos for Detroit’s two best relievers – Foley & Holton. Gives Detroit two outfielders capable of playing in MLB and a lesser relief pitcher back. Cardinals get two stud relievers and save $10 million.
Re the seek to trade list, I agree with it except for Knizner, whom I would keep unless a better catcher becomes available.
I think you can trade Knizner to Miami for Anthony Maldonado (AAA reliever with 1.62 ERA this season). Then promote Pedro Pages to the 40 man.
One of the things to be remembered when thinking about trades is it may not be enough to make a fair offer. We won’t be the only team in on anything that is both good and available, and the best offer will get the goods.
One of the things to be remembered when thinking about trades is it may not be enough to make a fair offer.
Agreed. That is why the trade I proposed for the Detroit relievers is an overpay according to BTV.
Detroit has two awesome relievers (one of whom was a waiver-wire claim), but great relievers don’t do you any good if you don’t have a lead.
Detroit needs OF, 2B & 3B. They have two top prospects at AAA – one is a 2B/3B, and one is an OF/3B.
BTV has it as an even trade as Carlson + O’Neill for Holton + Foley.
I once again assume the Cardinals would have to overpay to entice Detroit to make the trade. Including Gallegos is probably enough of a sweetener. Including a choice of Dunn or Prieto probably puts it over the top.
As far as trading Knizner to Miami, maybe that’s enough to get it done (Stallings has an OPS of .576 and Fortes has an OPS of .564). Maybe the Cardinals have to add a prospect, maybe they get one added…
I’m not as against trading Kniz CIF, IF he brings something decent back, even a decent non 40 man roster prospect. It is in no way because I don’t think he’s great, especially as a back up, but Herrera clearly has the higher ceiling and 6 years of control.
If Herrera essentially splits catching duties with Contreras(which would be great for him as well) with Contreras getting AB’s at DH and 1B etc it could be highly beneficial for his bat and staying on the field the next 4 years.
3.4 WAR out of Contreras is something we all would have taken in March and prolonging that is in the best interest of the organization and fans.
Herrera also has nothing else to prove in AAA and I don’t see them having 3 catchers on the 26 man, if one gets hurt, Pages is in the wings as a fill in (or some journeyman they sign to a Milb deal). I say Pages, because it would be foolish not to add him to the 40 man.
Question, is it possible to have a plan to drop someone off the 40 man, but basically sign them to a minors contract for close to the same money as a MLB player. Or are there stipulations regarding that, I’ve always assumed there were.
Herrera will be the one they want. We are probably not going to get by trading what we can do without.
CardsFanInChiTown – The answer is kind of. If they take someone off the 40-man, first other teams all get a chance to claim that player. Then, if they pass through waivers, a team could sign the player to a minor league deal if the team still has control of that player. If they don’t have control, then the player would have to choose to stay with the team. In the latter case, the contract could be essentially anything the team wanted to offer. So yes, it could in theory be at a major league salary. But it would be without earning major league service time or getting major league benefits.
L believe each level of minor leagues has its own pay thresholds. There are no doubt that exceptions to that rule, but I assume there are very few
Another related topic is that you can only outright a player once without the player having the option to take free agency. Also, another team can claim that player and put them on their 40 man roster. Pacheco and Robertson come to mind as examples of this.
After my last paragraph, I am wondering if the Cards lead MLB in outrights? Or they will after a 40 man purge soon to come.
As mentioned by others I suspect that Yepez, Gomez, and Baker have little trade value so the Guardians would want something more substantial in order to turn lose of anything of value. Even though he had some injury issues this year and only has one of year of control left I would probably take a run at trading for Bieber. Perhaps the asking price will be somewhat less due to the aforementioned issues.
I said I’d recap the 40-man situation at season’s end so now that we’re there, here we go. We’ll start with where we are at. There are 45 men on the 40-man roster today (because 5 of them are on the 60-day IL). We only get to have a total of 40 guys on there at some point after the World Series is up. At some point the 60-day IL goes away and all those guys have to be returned to the 40-man. So we start at 45.
2 contracts are expiring. That’s Wainwright and VerHagan. Wainwright is retiring and I highly doubt that they’ll offer a contract to VerHagan. So that’s now 43.
Now let’s cut some of the extra fluff from the roster that is easy to cut. Honestly, there’s a lot of AAAA guys that could be cut, but let’s just start with the ones that almost surely will be gone. That’s Casey Lawrence and Jacob Barnes due to age and ineffectiveness along with Irving Lopez who was really just called up because he was a good guy and in our system for a long time and was about to age out. Those 3 will almost assuredly be cut. That gets us to 40.
But that is definitely not going to be enough cutting because we have some Rule 5 Draft eligible guys who 100% need to be protected. Those are Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, and Cesar Prieto. I’ll talk about the other close calls on who else to protect in a moment. Now we’re back at 43.
We also need to add some starting pitchers. 3 is the number that Mozeliak says we’re getting. Now, 1 or more of those could come in a trade, but it’s hard to assume some of our guys will be traded away so I’ll just leave it as an add for now. Adding 3 to 43 makes 46. We also likely need to add at least one relief pitcher. I’ll just go with 1 for now. That makes 47. Note that some of these adds may not take place until Spring Training, but either way, there still has to be space. So 47.
Now let’s consider the other options of who we might want to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. I actually don’t think the Cardinals will protect anyone else. But there are 4 guys who could conceivably be taken – all of which I’d hate to lose. Those are Pedro Pages, Ian Bedell, Matt Koperniak, and Inohan Paniagua. Paniagua was hurt most of the season, was eligible last year and we didn’t protect him, and didn’t do anything too exciting when he did pitch this year. But he is headed off to the AFL so he could impress there. But I think he’s the least likely to be taken of this group. Koperniak is a good hitter, left handed, and had a solid year at AAA. But there’s really nothing that screams future all-star potential with him. He’s likely at best a quality major league back-up outfielder. But there’s still risk that he doesn’t make that. So I don’t think he is taken either. Bedell only pitched at High A after 2 injury filled seasons and was very successful. But he’s on the older side for High A and jumping to the MLB from High A would be a huge leap. So I’m guessing he isn’t taken either, but it’s possible that a team with no hope of being competitive like the A’s could scoop him up and put him in their bullpen next year just to steal him. Lastly, Pages is a risk. He’s a modestly decent hitting catcher with very good defensive skills who’s excellent at working with pitchers. He’s only reached AA, but he had a very good season there this year. I do think someone could make Pages their backup catcher. So I’ll be watching to see if the Cardinals do decide to protect him. I think it depends on where they see Pages, Herrera, and Knizner playing next year. So I’m going to say the Cardinals don’t protect anyone else and we stay at 47. But it could be 48 or even 49.
Next up, are there any Minor League Free Agents that the Cards want to protect? They already stuck Querecuto on their roster who would have been in consideration here. Brandon Komar is the only one I want to protect. But I don’t think they’ll add anyone despite my wishes (FYI – Moz doesn’t typically call me to ask my opinion). So I’m guessing that we’re staying at 47.
Now we need to get rid of at least 7 more players to make this work. I say at least 7 because they may want to add additional starters, relievers, or have a chance at taking someone in the Rule 5 Draft. But I don’t know any of those to be the case so let’s just stick with opening 7 spots. Here’s the candidates to drop: Suarez, Hudson, Naile, Woodford, Wilking Rodriguez, Zuniga, King, Naughton, Leahy, Thomas, Gomez, Siani, Knizner, Fermin, Querecuto, Yepez, and O’Neill. I think Suarez and Querecuto are the easiest two here. Consider them gone in the numbers crunch. They aren’t that good anyway. We can pick up other minor league free agents who are similar in the offseason. My next two to go are Naile and Wilking Rodriguez. Naile has been really bad at the MLB level, but had a good season at AAA. But he’s getting old now for a prospect. I think he’s done. Rodriguez was on the path back to actually pitch this season and they he got hurt again. He actually does have a fair amount of potential but he’s definitely old and now coming off a lost season with multiple injuries. I think the Cardinals will let him go. We still need 3 more. And I’m not sure who I’m picking. I guess for me, it would be Leahy, Thomas, and Woodford. There are lots of possibilities though. Some don’t think we’ll offer Hudson or O’Neill a contract to just save money. But neither is particularly expensive given the value they bring. I’m reasonably certain both will get a contract. I’m not so sure about Woodford or Knizner though. We’ll have to see.
Those are my best guesses. I hope that helps paint the picture of where we’re at. Sorry for the long post and all the information!
Thats a nice work up Jnevel. Hard to do without any idea what kind of trades will happen. I can’t argue with any of it, but I think that, after finishing 20 games under, we are going to see more turnover of the 40 man than we are used to.
Great work on that summary, Jnevel. I read that with interest, for sure. I would say of the guys on the “who do we cut” to get to 40, my choices would be your four plus Leahy, Fermin and Yepez. Juan hasn’t done enough with his chances to merit a longer run at this point, and maybe he can be useful on another club.
25 – yeah, I debated putting Yepez as well and keeping Thomas.
As for Fermin, I’ve done some rethinking on him since my original post that started this string. If the plan next year is for Winn to start at SS and Edman to start in CF (IF!), then Fermin is really the only true SS ready to be brought up from Memphis in case of injury with Kramer Robertson likely headed out as a minor league free agent. Plus, Fermin is a good defender and he’s still young. He just can’t hit. I think he adds a nice security blanket, which is why I believe he isn’t cut.
So my cuts are: Wainwright, VerHagan, Lawrence, Barnes, Lopez, Suarez, Querecuto, Naile, W Rodriguez – and then pick 3 of Leahy, Thomas, Woodford, Yepez, Zuniga, or Knizner.
Yeah, Firmin is worth some thought. Defensively, he is SS capable in the same sense that Donovan is SS capable. But, as noted, no bat.
I guess it depends upon what other roster moves are made, but in any case, a suitable replacement could probably be found right up into ST. It doesn’t seem essential to carry him on the 40 man all winter. An infield UT with enough bat to be payable regularly is a whole different thing.
Great work jnevel. There will undoubtedly be trades, but as you mentioned, it is hard to predict who it will be.
“I want a clubhouse full of guys that has one thing on their minds, and it’s not themselves. It’s winning a championship. So, you start out by weeding those out,” Marmol said
Those will be traded.
He didn’t say. But we will find out I guess as they are either traded or let go. For now is Marmol’s little secret.
Does Marmol expect he will be doing any of the weeding or just pushing the wheelbarrow for the weeder-in-chief?
Bumping this up. Thanks again for the good work, jnevel! Lawrence, Leahy, Lopez, Quercueto and Suarez dropped from the 40-man. Waino retired. Buddy Kennedy added. That gets them to 40 on the 40 man. The non-tender deadline is Nov. 17. 3 more to drop by then to create space for Robberse, Kloffenstein, and Prieto. Barnes, Naile, and Fermin? Then 4 more spaces need to be created by trade or release for the four pitchers…
I’m actually not so sure that Prieto is eligible for the Rule 5 anymore. I read somewhere that he was due to his professional time in Cuba and then I see other places where he’s not listed as being eligible. He may not need to be added. Bedell and Pages are the 2 that are borderline where they could be taken. I don’t think the Cardinals will add them.
Others will be jettisoned. VerHagan will automatically become a free agent 5 days after the World Series so that’s one. I believe Jacob Barnes will also not be tendered a deal as well. And I’d bet Woodford will be in the same boat as well. There are several others who are still on rookie deals that may not be offloaded until later when they need to be.
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