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The non-tender player I think the Cardinals should pursue is Andrew Vasquez from the Dodgers. 37.4% strikeout rate and 61.8% groundball rate in AAA.
And 6 BB/9, don’t forget that part.
They overpaid for Matz in my opinion. I would have been much happier with 3/27 than 4/44. But if Matz is costing 4/44 what’s Gray or Stroman going to cost? I’d rather have Matz at 4/44 than whatever either of them are going to cost. Those 2 could end up having better seasons than Matz, but I think Matz will be much more cost effective.
McHugh or Knebel over Melancon. And I’d rather just use the youth than spending on Miller’s, LeBlanc’s, and Kim’s of the world. Save the money for a potentially substantial mid-season acquisition rather than spending just to spend it.
I think they overpaid, but I don’t hate it. I like it more than signing Stroman. I’ve never been a fan and believe he’s going to be massively overpaid. If Matz can get 4/44 then I have no doubt Stroman will get a contract any team is going to regret soon.
As far as Scherzer. I never thought he’d come to STL, as much as I’d love it. But the absolute only way now is if they were to somehow find someone to take on Mikolas contract, and I don’t see that happening.
And I’ll agree, 1 year on Haney is better than 4 for Matz.I like it. I have friends that are big “Seinfeld” fans that call me “Maestro” every time they see me.
I’m glad you understand it. But I assumed it was a Seinfeld reference or if your name is Bob Cobb you’ve heard the reference at least 1000 times.
And the Cardinals generate a lot of revenue by filling the seats. With 2.1 million in attendance, 2021 was the lowest attendance (non “pandemic” or strike shortened year) since 1981, which attendance was barely over 1 million that year. 1982 attendance was 2.1 million. I wasn’t alive for either, so I’m not sure why 1981 was so low. 2021 was the first time since 2003 (2.9 million) attendance was under 3 million. If the DeWitt’s don’t find a way to start filling the seats and continuing to generate revenue don’t expect any sort of big contracts and the payroll will be dropping WAY down and the Cardinals budget is going to be way closer to the likes Cleveland, Colorado, Minnesota. Living in Southern Indiana, pretty much equal distance from St. Louis as to Cincinnati, there are MANY MANY more Cardinals fans, heck there are more Cubs, who are double the distance, fans than Reds fans. I also know quite a few people who can only afford to attend 1 or 2 games a year and they will chose to catch the Cardinals in Cincinnati for 1 of those games where the cost of attending a game is less than half of that in St. Louis…and Cincinnati still only draws about 1.5-1.9 million a year the last 30 years, outside of 2010-15 when they had some really good teams, and coming off those years, and still didn’t have outstanding attendance.
Maestro,
I’d agree the Cardinals aren’t a large market. When it comes to “market size” I think belive St. Louis ranks somewhere around 20th, but they are the 7th most valuable team. The major problem with the open market of MLB, and I’m 100% not against the open market system, is the New York and Los Angeles markets are so much bigger than the rest of the league the luxury tax almost doesn’t even effect them and other teams can’t get into bidding wars with them because they essentially have unlimited money. The market size drop down to Chicago and Philadelphia is substantial continues to drop quickly.
Edit:
Article from 2017 about market sizes and revenue. Specifically talking about the Cardinals. A little has changed in the 5 years, such as TV contracts and the Cardinals having one of the larger ones, but the LA teams have huge ones now too, but a lot of that is still relevant.As much as I would like Seager and think he fits many needs, he has the Dodgers and Yankees both bidding for his services. The Cardinals aren’t and don’t need to get into that fight. Correra is in the same boat. Story could be closer to the right price, but with a lot of questions about what he can do outside Colorado.
As far as O’Neill being an MVP candidate for 2022, I’m thinking the exact….opposite. I think he will have the biggest regression on the team by far. His K% doesn’t bode well for consistency and success and if he doesn’t get it headed in the right direction then Nootbaar, Yepez, Capel, Burleson, whoever better be ready to step up for a time share in LF.They could use him, but I think a higher quality starter could be needed. I don’t know that I like the 3 year $27 million he’s projected at, but it’s better than the 5 year $110 I’ve heard mentioned for Stroman, who I’ve never been a fan of anyway. If Matz is healthy and keeping the BB% down he can be very useful.
I was thinking more along the lines of Sosa, Oviedo, Rondon for Manaea. I don’t know that it would be enough, but it is only 1 year of control. Still would have Woodford, Liberatore, Newsome, Thompson, Zeuch, Thomas, Palante as starting depth and a rotation of Flaherty, Manaea, Hudson, Wainwright, Mikolas. And I agree I’d like to add another 2/3 starter, I’m not big on Stroman at all, and replace Mikolas, but eating that contract would be hard and finding a taker would be harder, especially since I believe he has a no trade clause. Maybe a team like TB he would approve going to, contender and he lives in Florida, and they could take him on as a reclamation project they have had success with and a 3rd team take on Kiermaier for salary relief for TB and the Cardinals getting out from under the money and a low level minor leaguer, but I just got really deep into a lot of speculation and hypothesizing.
“I am thinking Montas was in the conversation with the A’s in the Piscotty deal years ago, so we could have more than, or in place of either Schrock and Munoz. Really, any of the A’s starters would be attractive at the right price.”
I think if the A’s do cut pay they blow it all the way up. I’ve always liked Manaea. From Indiana, deceptive lefty, with 92-95 mph fastball. His issue has always been health though. Bassitt since adding the cutter to his arsenal made himself into somewhat of a late bloomer, but again has never logged many innings. I’ll be honest I know little about Montas other than highlights I’ve seen, but he seems to have put a lot together in 2021 and throws hard. Bassitt and Manaea have 1 year of control and Montas has 2. I could see the Cardinals lining up as trade partners because I could see Oakland having interest in Sosa or Nootbaar if the Cardinals were to part with one of them and Oviedo, Rondon, or Woodford. The question is are any of the 3 and limited control worth giving up the years of control in Sosa, Nootbaar, Woodford. If the deal was Oviedo, Rondon, Malcom Nunez or Luken Baker then maybe I’d be inclined. Or do you hold on to the depth and sign a guy like Matz, who’s had his own issues, and projected at 3 years and $27 million.
Corey Knebel is a guy I sure wouldn’t mind seeing in the late innings, but again health has been an issue.Plummer was not added to the 40 man and is a minor league free agent. I find it surprising they let him walk.
I see now this was discussed in the rule 5 thread too.
He’s projected at 1 yr and $6 million. If that’s the case I take a chance on him over Lester, Haap, LeBlanc. But I’d still prefer to acquire a more front line guy. I don’t expect Wainwright to repeat his performance, but he can still be a good 4.
“If you brought in a pitcher or two, whom would they replace?”
Flaherty, ?, Hudson, Wainwright, Mikolas
Gallegos, ?, ? (L), Hicks, Helsley, Cabrera(L), Whitley, Reyes
Reyes – let him come to spring stretched out as a starter and compete for a rotation spot. But if he doesn’t, and I suspect his strike throwing ability will keep it from happening, a long man role and spot starter.
Garcia and McFarland are free agents
Woodford – has options. Probably best kept stretched out in AAA ready to fill a rotation spot. Possibly tradeable.
Liberatore- not on 40 man, doesn’t need to be, needs more seasoning, could be an option if their is injury, clear Wainwright replacement for 2023.
Oviedo – depth or tradeable
Fernandez- control issue, still has options, be on the flight back and forth from STL to Memphis a few times I’m sure.
Jones- Conner? 6.39ERA and 5 BB/9. in AAA?Moroff and Williams DFA’d and outright to AAA. Both are eligible for minor league free agency. Bye bye Williams
I’m 100% keeping Plummer. Put Williams in a the package with DeJong and let someone else take a chance on him. AAA OF of Burleson, Plummer, Capel and Dean as the 4th/DH. Burleson has the highest ceiling, but further away. Plummer and Capel could become the 4th OF if needed behind Nootbaar. Yepez could get some LF time too.
I like Yepez before this year in the little I watched. I like to find some video and get an idea of some of these guys. I think Yepez as a “26th man” is perfect. Sosa-IF, Yepez-1B/3B/LF/RF, Nootbaar-OF, Knizner-C is a really solid bench with Yepez getting some time at then expected DH vs LHP or letting Goldschmidt get some time at DH while he plays 1B. OF is great defensively and developing offensive. I like Bader. Carlson obviously has a lot of talent. O’Neill had a really good year. If he cuts the K% down I think he can recreate that run production. Obviously corner IF are locked in. I really like Edman and if he can improve the BB% and OBP he’s only going to be better. SS to me is the only question mark on what they do. Is it Sosa, DeJong, who? I still would like a LH bat between Goldschmidt and Arenado, just thinking back to Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen.
“In my mind if Marmol continues to bat Goldschmidt 2nd then, well, let’s just say that isnt good.”
Rat,
We’ve agreed on quite a bit of line-up construction stuff since I came here, but I will disagree with you here slightly. It matters who else is around. I didn’t have a problem with Goldschmidt hitting 2nd. He has a good OBP, he’s a good base runner, O’Neill was hitting well behind him. I have zero problem hitting Goldschmidt 2nd, but I’d like to see a LH bat between him and Arenado. I expect regression out of O’Neill. I hope he can still be productive, but his K% smells regression to me and hitting 5th to me with Carlson or even Edman behind him is fine. I say Edman because he has one of of lowest K% in baseball and hits his doubles.
Which brings me to this “philosophy”. Albert is a big believer in pulling everything with launch angel, maybe Marmol is a believer in that too while Schildt saw what he had (Goldschmidt, Arenado, especially Edman) that being gap to gap line drive hitters and taking the HR when they come works better. Holliday was that same kind of hitter and there is definitely a lot of Holliday in Arenado’s swing.Schildt in SD would be interesting. They are known very analytical team and there were philosophical differences in St. Louis. But he’s a known players guy and good with the clubhouse, which Tingler supposedly lost.
I like me as the next manager, but I feel me and Mo would butt heads too.
In all seriousness though, I think Skip is the guy who will get it. Comes from a very analytical team in the Padres and knows the organization very well. I think as much good as we’ve always heard about Stubby he’s to much like Schildt for them to put him in there.
On a side note I met Skip one time when he was playing. Really nice guy. He’s not 5’10” though, or I’m taller than 5’11”. I also worked a year in minor league baseball in 2006. Met the Palm Beach team and got to sit and hang with them a few times. Talked the big club and many things and when Skip was talked about nobody had a bad thing to say about him and it was always how hard he worked, always made me root for him more.