[Cards667]

As I and others have mentioned, tanking won’t work like it did for the cubs and Astros, because due to CBA changes, the tanking team does not get the same budgetary advantages as before. It won’t work

This isn’t at all about “tanking”. Yes those teams purposely were bad but in doing so would also trade for players that were on bad contracts and take on the money to get more prospects back in return. Like if the Cardinals were to trade Donovan to the Phillies and take on Castellanos in the return to boost the prospect package even higher. Houston did very little to she’d money during their tank. You keep saying tanking, as you’ve mentioned and it’s absolutely not a “tank”.
Donovan is 28 and only controlled for 2 more years. This team is not going to be a legitimate competitor in those 2 years. The minor league system is very sub par. Trading Donovan now is his highest value and a chance to bring in legitimate prospects to help that. Not a current “ace” or #2, but maybe a future. May not work out, but it’s their best chance. Same with Romero talk. He’s not bringing the same package but he’s a free agent after the year. Same with the Nootbaar talk. Only 2 more years of control, but his injury complicated it. I’d trade Pages too, his value is high and the 1 thing the system does have some promising talent is catcher. Trading Gray and probably Arenado and possibly Contreras is about getting as much money off the books as possible and opening a chance to look at guys to see who’s being built around and who’s getting replaced. The DeWitts are tired of paying big contracts and getting a middle of the road team. They don’t have the money to pay multiple big contracts and the front office people they have brought in have worked for organizations who were required to build off of limited budgets and building a cost effective roster. Donovan is good, affordable, and 2 years of control with defensive versatility making him wanted by all. I like him too, but he doesn’t fit into the 2028 and beyond plan when he gets expensive if they can keep him at all. They have too many LH bats and the most likely replacement is LH too.

[Cards667]

Right now, they are “supposed” to spend 150% of those revenue

That doesn’t seem right.
Team A: Slightly bigger small market receives $50 million would be required to spend $75 million. $25 million of own money.

Team B: Small market receiving $100 million is required to spend $150 million. $50 million of own money.

So, these small market clubs are receiving $270 million per year without doing anything for themselves.

Not doing nothing themselves. That number includes the 34% they put in too. I get the point. But everyone is paying into the pool.

There is a huge market advantage to certain markets. And allows them to be very active in free agency and extending players contracts. Then there are the other 20 teams that have to be financially responsible. The Cardinals aren’t in the teams that have money for sure. The DeWitts own a business and want to be financially responsible and cost effective. And I don’t blame them one bit.

[Cards667]

LACardFan couldn’t disagree more. The DeWitts have been “crying poor” munch longer than that. They have said for years baseball isn’t a profitable business, and it is a business. There are major expenses, players making crazy money, many many coaches and front office personnel, and thats not even all the “small” departments like marketing and tickets and the people who run all those offices. Even the Cubs owner has said “with what money” when fans have cried for them to spend more on FA like the Dodgers and their market is substantially larger than St. Louis. “Welfare for billionaires” that are expected to compete in a game with the ones paying the welfare are making 10 times what they are. I’ve said before I like the open market side of baseball, but I think something has to be done with the financial disparity of the top 8-10 over the other 20. I think if a team is receiving revenue-sharing their payroll has to be 100% of what they receive + a number based on market size. But something needs to be done to bring the top down to the field, but placing a hard cap on them just means those owners are profiting more. So the luxury tax system could be reworked.

[Cards667]

There is a LOT of money in sponsorship. Just take a look at how much signage is around every professional sports venue, especially MLB stadiums. But, if attendance is down then the viewership of that signage is down and when those contracts are up for that signage then the new selling cost of that signage is going to be lower. So, that money may still be there now because of a contract, but in the future could be much lower. So there is probably current money to send with Gray or Arenado and such, but the futures could be lower.
As for consessions, a lot of that isn’t controlled directly by the Cardinals. They have a say for sure, but a lot of that space is leased out. Then that company is the one paying those employees and the costs. I’m sure there is a contract there also and a licensing agreement with the Cardinals logo printed on the stuff. It wouldn’t be cost effective at all for the Cardinals to be in the “restaurant” business and leasing that space out is much more controllable income. And again, lower attendance is going to mean lower sales for those companies and effecting the leasing cost of the space.
But anyone who thinks St. Louis isn’t a smaller market can look at the numbers the last few years. Sure the team performance hasn’t been great, but the cost of staying alive has skyrocketed and the disposable income in smaller markets just isn’t there for the people. I’ve said before, I live 2.5 hours from St. Louis, and considered “in the St. Louis market”, and for 15 straight years my family vacation every summer was the Cardinals-Cubs series in July. Come in Friday afternoon check into the hotel and go straight to the game, Saturday was Six Flags or Grants Farm or whatever, then the game, then go to Sundays game and head home. Usually would make our way over at least 1 other time for a game. Even after I got into high school and older I would find my way to at least 2-3 games a year. But I haven’t attended a game in over 5 years. The cost of getting to St. Louis, possibly a hotel, then the cost of attending the game is just not worth it regardless of the quality of the on field product. Larger markets with higher immediate population and a higher number of higher incomes (LA/NY/Chicago) are going to have less of an impact. The markets like St. Louis, Cincinnati, and such are going to notice it more. People have said St. Louis is a larger market because they have such a sprawling fan base going back many years. But I think the lack of disposable income this sprawling fan base, including me, that used to be making trips to St. Louis just don’t find it justifiable to spend the money doing any more. And the ownership knows it and sees the future and spending money isn’t going to happen. It has to be about investing in minor leagues and controllable players and having a cost effective roster. And if that means the roster the next few seasons is sub $100 million then so be it. The cost of what’s on the field has nothing to do with me watching or being a fan. They have to build a sustainable business model and where they are now isn’t, which is how they’ve come to hiring the people they have who came from organizations (Tampa Bay, Cleveland) who have had to build success on the same model. The problem is for something like 18 of the last 20 World Series winners have come from a top 9 payroll and I don’t foresee a future where the Cardinals are able to afford that. Which comes to the 2027 CBA and what happens there and if we even have a 2027 season.

[Cards667]

I don’t mind taking a look at Leahy as a SP in 2026 at all. McGreevy, Liberatore, Fitts have a little more leash. Leahy take a look. Pallante on a shorter leash. If you don’t like what you see with Leahy and Pallante as SP in 2026, they have proven to be serviceable RP and hopefully out of Mathews, Henderson, Mautz, Hansen, Doyle, Hence (Health?, is is treanding more RP now?), Roby (Health? Going to miss all of 2026, maybe RP now too), Hjerpe (Health?) make strides to work their way into getting their shot at SP in 2027. And that’s just the top names right now. See how things shake out, who else could be added during trade this off season.

[Cards667]

I’m saying the $20 million isn’t spent, I’m fine with it. Along with whatever else is saved in trades. If they have the lowest payroll in baseball this year, so be it. Get the system rebuilding that’s goal #1 for 2026. Go with a young roster playing to prove they belong and are a piece that needs to stay for the future. Start weeding out whos not staying, who is redundant and can be moved to fill other holes. Bloom needs to tell the DeWitts to invest any money saved the next 2 years because he’s coming for the money plus some in 2028. And I don’t see them signing a SP at all. McGreevy, Liberatore, Fitts, Leahy, Pallante will be the 5. Mathews, Henderson, Mautz, Hanson, Hence, maybe another from a trade are all possible as the season goes on and see whos healthy.

[Cards667]

I am so sick of this small market stuff. If anything, the cards have one of the biggest markets geographically speaking. They have fans covering at least 6 states. Their franchise is one of the most recognizable in all of sports. If the front office is truly convinced that they can’t compete with the likes of la or ny, etc, they should quit the majors and become a triple a club. That’s the team they’ve been playing with over the past few years anyway!

Market size rankings for the CBA in 2022.
235 – Yankees and Mets
180 – Dodgers and Angels
120 – Cubs and White Sox
115 – Blue Jays
111 – Giants and Athletics
110 – Phillies and Nationals
102 – Red Sox
99 – Rangers
97 – Braves
92 – Astros
87 – Mariners
79 – Twins
76 – Diamondbacks
74 – Rays
73 – Tigers and Rockies
69 – Marlins
68 – Baltimore
62 – Guardians and Padres
58 – Cardinals
56 – Pirates
55 – Royals
51 – Reds
50 – Brewers

Clearly the Cardinals can’t compete with NY and LA. And the problem in baseball right now, i love the “free market”, but LA and NY are significantly larger than the rest. Then the next 7 are still pretty large. Then the rest I’d say are pretty “competitively equal”. St. Louis isn’t anywhere near a large market, if they were the Rams wouldn’t have left for the LA money either.

[Cards667]

The Cardinals are NOT in a rebuild. They have Winn, Donovan, Burleson and Herrera. Get free agent pitching.

They are though. The new front office says they are. DeWitt’s want a cost efficient roster that they clearly don’t have. There’s a reason front office personnel was brought in from the likes of Tampa Bay and Cleveland. They want teams built from within on a lower budget that is easier to sustain. The big contracts are gone, they aren’t going to spend big money on aging players, and they for sure aren’t going to spend money for the 2026 roster on top free agent pitching. Anybody who is within 2 years of free agency or on a big contract is very susceptible to being traded and rebuilding a very weak minor league system. They should have done it 2 years ago and most likely would be on the upward swing, but they dug a deeper hole trying to hang on. Now they have bloated, hard to move contracts, on a roster that isn’t winning with a AAA team that is far from providing immediate help. They have to move people, probably people you don’t want to see go and get the system rebuilt so the team can hopefully compete by 2028, but could realistically be 2030. Just the way it is. It’s not easy to accept as a fan, but to the DeWitt’s its still a business and you can’t sustain a business losing money and paying big money, in a bottom-middle market, for middle of the pack performance. I think they try to build around Winn and probably Herrera. Burleson, hopefully, but depending on what they can get done with Contreras or Nootbaar with his injury, it could be a hard decision they have to move Burleson to get anything significant to the development of the team. But I think Donovan is their best and easiest trade chip right now and will be traded. They want to reduce the redundancy and trading Donovan moves a LH bat they seem to have many of right now, but probably replaced soon enough with another LH bat in Wetherholt.

[Cards667]

The Cardinal Way is now as a feeder club for MLB.

Yes, until they can build their own feeder clubs up to provide quality big leaguers that can contend.

[Cards667]

If I was betting on this, I would obviously take the Dodgers, but I’m sure I’m not alone in rooting for the Blue Jays.

I’m rooting for the Dodgers. I hate the payroll advantage 3-4 teams have, but the Dodgers have built a fun team to watch. Yankees and Mets have the same monetary advantage and haven’t built it. And I can’t root against Tommy, Kike, Freddy.

I saw something earlier and it may not be exactly the right numbers so don’t hold me to it exactly, I’ll try to find it and confirm again, but 13 of the last 15 world series champions have come from a top 9 payroll. 2017 trash can Astros were one of the outliers. Money has become a huge issue in baseball with those who have, have a lot more than those in the middle, and those at the bottom are closer to the middle than the middle is to the top. Which is why I say the 2027 season will be lucky to happen. Players don’t want to cap their earnings when most aren’t seeing the super high dollars until they are 30 and ownership of 20-24 teams is tired of the other 6-10 having a significant money advantage that the current tax system doesn’t even phase them to pay.

[Cards667]

Dodgers sweep. And then there will be a lockout in 2027 as ownership will be demanding a salary cap to prevent teams from being able to buy championships.

[Cards667]

I’m not sure how much interest the Dodgers have in Arenado. They have a $10M option on Muncy.

I agree I think their interest in Arenado wouldn’t be high, but a guideline of how they are going to have to get things done if they want to move some of these contracts and start over. I think Gray is very tradable, but the Cardinals are going to have to eat around $15-20 million to make him tradable. 1 year of Gray at $20-25 million is tradable, but hes owed $35 and a $5million buy out. So you eat it, or find someone needing catching help and tack Pages with him and probably still have to eat the $5 million buy out.

[Cards667]

I would rather trade one or two of Contreras, Noot, or Donnie for pitching.

Agreed, but I think we will see them probably package some guys together to get out of the money as much as possible. Like along the lines of,
Arenado, Nootbaar, Romero and $20 million to Dodgers. Muncy to Houston. Cardinals get 3 prospects from Dodgers and 2 from Houston. They won’t be the highly touted guys doing this, but it saves them money. Could take a chance on getting a guy like River Ryan coming back from TJ surgury and 2 prospect arms from each. Houston needs a LH bat, Arenado will accept to the Dodgers and they get a LF better than Conforto for sure, and as a bonus everyone gets to go “home”. The 3 to LA are from Southern California and Muncy is from Texas. Didn’t mean to do that but when looking them up I noticed it.
They could do along the same with Gray and Contreras with Donovan and Pages. Using their value to off-set a lot of the money. The thing I really don’t like doing it with Donovan is he is by far their highest trade chip and they wouldn’t get the same return as just trading him alone, but if getting out from under the money quickly is a priority then it’s how I think it gets done.
I will also say Cleveland lack of offense has me intrigued as Robert Cerfolio knows their system well and has a relationship with them and Contreras could be appealing to them. And again maybe a 3 team thing where the Cardinals could send Gray to somewhere, they send offense to Cleveland with Contraras too, and the Cardinals getting prospects from Cleveland.

[Cards667]

There’s no such thing as a team that is better than it’s W/L record. It doesn’t exist. Not anywhere at anytime.

I disagree. You can look at run differential for instance as an easy indicator. Tampa Bay has a 75-78 record with a +52 run differential and the Cardinals have a 74-79 record with a -58 run differential. That is 110 runs different favoring Tampa Bay, but only 1 more win. Tampa Bay is better than their record indicates and the Cardinals are worse than their record indicates. Using Baseballreference Pythagorean W-L it says the Rays should be 82-71 and the Cardinals should be 71-82.

[Cards667]

I like Burly’s bat but I don’t like his OF defense and he is blocked at 1B by Contreras and blocked at DH by Herrera so I could see the Cards trading Burly, Gorman, and Walker for pitching.

I hope they keep Biscuits and let Herrera catch, Can convince Contreras to accept a trade at the deadline and then can move Biscuits to 1B and Herrera can go to DH mostly with some catching and maybe learning some 1B too. Open catcher to Crooks and have the organizational depth they have to trade from there to get what’s needed.

[Cards667]

Personally I think Bloom will make 2 big moves. Arenado, Nootbaar, Romero, and cash to the Dodgers for some prospects. Then will also move Donovan for a haul of prospects. The rest of the moves will be minor trades and non-tenders of Roycroft, Siani, Munoz, King, and probably Alcala. And then they will sign a cheap LH relief pitcher. And we’ll see

1. Wetherholt – 2B (L)
2. Herrera – C (R)
3. Burleson – DH (L)
4. Contreras – 1B (R)
5. Gorman – 3B (L)
6. Winn – SS (R)
7. Church – LF (L)
8. Walker – RF (R)
9. Scott – CF (L)

Saggese – IF (R), Fermin – IF/OF (R), Pozo-C/1B, Pages – C (R)

Prieto, Koperniak, Jordan, Crooks all on the 40 man and awaiting injury to get the call.
Yes I think Herrera has to get back behind the plate and they will carry 3 catchers because I expect Herrera only catches 3 games and then will DH 2 games moving Burleson to LF.

Gray, Liberatore (L), McGreevy, Pallante, Mathews(L)
Leahy, Graceffo, Thompson(L), Granillo, Fernandez, ???(L), Svanson, O’Brien

With a long list of question marks of who gets the call when O’Brien gets hurt. Maybe Hence, Robberse, Naughton are healthy. Maybe they sign 2 cheap RH arms too and use Granillo and Fernandez going back and forth to Memphis as needed.

But I expect it to be a lot of the same as this season and hope they can get good play and convince Contreras and Gray to waive their no trade clauses at the deadline to move on and totally start over and keep trying to build the system up to compliment whatever they determine are the keepable pieces off the roster. I said before they could contend by next season if they had fully tore it down and started the rebuild last off season. With what they have done I think it will be 2028 at the earliest before they are contenders and if they don’t sell off this off season, and convince Contreras and Gray to go at the deadline, it could realistically be 2030 before they have a contending group.

[Cards667]

O’Brien can’t stay healthy. Romero is entering the last year of his deal and will probably be traded.

[Cards667]

Crooks didn’t get an AB, but I’ve watched him hit quite a bit. What I hadn’t seen much of was his catching and what I saw there I loved. He was working with Svanson and Fernandez who he worked with quite a bit in AAA, but his hands were soft and caught the ball very smooth. One of those things when you see it you have to like it.

[Cards667]

Just now back to school? My kids have been back since August 6th here in Southern Indiana. Now seems like a much more reasonable time to go back, August 6th was really early.

[Cards667]

As stated before the reason I don’t like divisions with four teams

I don’t disagree. I’m all for 16 team NL and 16 team AL. Top 4 records from both leagues make the playoffs and thats it. Make making the playoffs mean something. But ownership will never go for it at all. They will likely want a 4 division set up to increase the likelihood of making the playoffs and more teams in contention longer and getting the revenue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them try to push 8 teams from each league making the playoffs too which I absolutely hate. 50% of the league should be in the playoffs, this isn’t the NBA. I’ll compromise with leaving it at 6 with the 2 top record division winners getting a bye.

[Cards667]

MLB Expansion

Found it, and my ideas appear to be the same as they were 2.5 years ago.

[Cards667]

I expect the two expansion teams will be in Nashville and Salt Lake City.

I do not expect the NL and AL to be disbanded altogether.

While eight divisions of four teams each seems to be all the rage it just increases the likelihood of a divsion winner having a losing record which is a farce. It happened in the NFL’s NFC South in 2022.

What would make more sense is to have a NL East, NL West, AL East, and AL West with each division having eight teams. Each division winner gets a playoff spot with a bye and then there would be four wild card teams from each league who wold open up the playoff rounds.

I made a thread on this years ago. I went though many pages trying to find it, but I gave up. I expect Nashville to get a team and then either Portland or Salt Lake City. There have been rumors and even hinting at breaking up the traditional AL and NL, and I really hope they don’t. I think the best think to do is move Tampa Bay (relocate to Charlotte?) to the NL and move Colorado to the AL.

NL
North: Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, St. Louis
South: Atlanta, Miami, Nashville, Tampa Bay(Charlotte?)
East: New York Mets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington
West: Arizona, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego, San Francisco

AL
North: Chicago White Sox, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota
South: Colorado, Houston, Kansas City, Texas
East: Baltimore, Boston, New York Yankees, Toronto
West: Los Angeles Angels, Las Vegas, Portland/Salt Lake, Seattle

I know San Antonio has been mentioned too. If it was San Antonio over Portland or Salt Lake City then put them in the South and move Colorado to the West.

I say keep it at 6 playoff teams also. Each division winner gets in with 2 wild cards. I know they look at the money of the playoffs, but they should be hard to make and mean something. As far as scheduling. Each team could play same league, non division team in a home and away series (72 games), same league same division teams in 2 home and away series (36 games), and play 1 series vs opposite league (48 games). Put in 6 4 game series, played against same division teams, pushing those games to 42 and you have 162 games. As for the interleague series the NL North could play the AL North and West at home, the South and East on the road and then the next season they are flipped. Then you are guaranteed to get whatever interleague matchup the fans may want to see at home every other year. This also offers a balanced schedule they have been leaning more towards, while still playing roughly 26% of games in division.

[Cards667]

I feel the same as 2023 deadline. I don’t dislike the moves that were made and think the return for what they had to offer is reasonable, hope some work out and we’re still evaluating 2023 because 2 of the “better returns” in Robberse and Roby have been dealing with injury. Svanson and Saggese look like at least valuable role players with potential as more. But, same as 2023 I wish they would have went deeper into tearing it down. I really feel this team isn’t going to be truly competitive until 2030 or later. Arenado is under contract through 2027 and seems like he’s probably not tradeable or they would have done it at this point. Gray is under contract though next year, with an option for 2027 that surely won’t be exercised. Maybe he agrees next year to waive it. Contreras is under contract though 2027, option for 2028, and I think he is tradeable but hasn’t been willing to waive the NTC. The money of those 3 isn’t helping the rebuild. I like Donovan and Nootbaar but they are running out of team control and the return for them could have really sped up the rebuild and giving a better look at guys like Saggese and given a chance to get a look at Church or Prieto or possibly even Wetherholt. I know eating the money of Arenado isn’t ideal, but probably should have just been done and move him and give 3B to Gorman and go with it. The said in the off season they were doing a “reset” yet here we are still stuck in the middle of competing and a rebuild with a .500 record in 4th place in the division (10 games back) and 5.5 games back of a wild card spot.

[Cards667]

Interesting comments on Blaze Jordan. He is listed as playing 1B and 3B. If he’s got lead feet and can’t catch the ball, they shouldn’t say he can play 3B. The bottom line is that we’ll just have to wait and see what we’ve got. I hope he gets invited to spring training.

Well he has to be added to the 40 man or exposed to the rule 5, so I’d guess he’ll be on the 40 man and thus part of Spring Training.

[Cards667]

I’ve been all for blowing it up and building around some of the guys who are now running low on team control. And I’m now in the blow it up and include Donovan and Nootbaar in there and get some return. I love Donny, but his value is sky high this season and Wetherholt is pushing for a MLB job. It’s way past time to tear in down and build it instead of trying to stabilize a falling structure with no foundation. Gray and Contreras aren’t going to waive, reportedly, so we’ll just have to use them the best we can until they decide to or their contracts expire. I’d trade Arenado, Nootbaar, Donovan, Fermin, Matz, Mikolas (NTC too though), Romero, Maton, Helsley, and DFA Hampson.

1. Wetherholt 2B (L)
2. Winn SS (R)
3. Burleson LF (L) – needs to be 1B/DH, but Contreras won’t waive NTC
4. Contreras 1B (R)
5. Herrera DH (R)
6. Gorman 3B (L)
7. Walker RF (R)
8. Pages/Pozo C (R)
9. Scott CF (L)

Prieto IF (L)
Saggese IF/OF (R) – Get him learning corner OF
Church OF (L)
Pozo/Pages C (R)

Gray, Liberatore (L), McGreevy, Pallante, Mikolas (if he won’t waive NTC, if he does then Leahy/Graceffo for the rest of 2025)

Leahy, Graceffo, King(L), Fernandez/Munoz/Roycroft, Svanson, ??? (L), Granillo, O’Brien

Even if they don’t want to bring Wetherholt up yet then 2B can be Saggese and Prieto and hold on to Fermin for the other bench spot since he’d just be a throw in anyway.

[Author]

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