LACK OF SIGNING TOP TIER PLAYERS

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  • #176896
    ROBERT161MI
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    I AM ONCE AGAIN DISAPPOINTED IN THE FRONT OFFICES FAILURE TO ADD A FRONT LINE SHORTSTOP,OR STARTING PITCHERS. IT’S NOT A CASE THAT THEY DON’T HAVE THE MONEY,BUT THE FACT THAT THEY DON’T WANT TO SPEND THE MONEY ON TOP QUALITY PLAYERS,WHO COULD PUSH THE TEAM OVER THE TOP..THEY WOULD PREFER SECOND TIER PLAYERS WITH NO PROMISE OF SUCCESS,AGING PLAYERS WHO ARE NO LONGER IN THEIR PRIME,THEN SIGN THEM TO MULTI YEAR CONTRACTS FOR MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.IR OWNERSHIP DOESN’T WANT TO SPEND THE MONEY THAN IT’S TIME TO PUT THE TEAM UP FOR SALE..I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO CONFIDENCE IN BILL DE WITT,OR HIS BOY JOHN MOLEZAK..

    #176898
    bccran
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    Good Grief.

    #176904
    mudville
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    Can’t say that I agree with him, but like everyone else, he just wants to win.

    #176905
    GameCard
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    Goldschmidt and Arenado aren’t top-tier players? I thought they were.

    #176908
    ROBERT161MI
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    Both of those players came through trades not free agency.

    #176921
    Nathan Leopold Jr.
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    It’s kind of early. They can get any players they want including a SS. Don’t panic yet…there’ll be plenty of time for that later.

    #176922
    bicyclemike
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    I am not a big fan top tier free agent signings, as often you are paying for the production that the prior club benefitted from.

    But in select situations it can be good. I was pushing for the Cards to ink Matt Holliday after the ‘09 season. Some folks preferred Jason Bay back then, but Holliday was clearly the better choice, which history proved.

    I said this on another thread, but I do not see a big need to make a splash on the free agent market. We would appear to have more players on an upswing than downgrade in the coming seasons. One guy, Ty O’Neill, could be an MVP candidate in ‘22.

    #176923
    Ratsbuddy
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    I see Corey Seager turned down the Dodgers qualifying offer.

    #176925
    Nigel T
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    I came as soon as I could. Is everyone all right? I just heard someone screaming.

    #176934
    Cards667
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    As much as I would like Seager and think he fits many needs, he has the Dodgers and Yankees both bidding for his services. The Cardinals aren’t and don’t need to get into that fight. Correra is in the same boat. Story could be closer to the right price, but with a lot of questions about what he can do outside Colorado.
    As far as O’Neill being an MVP candidate for 2022, I’m thinking the exact….opposite. I think he will have the biggest regression on the team by far. His K% doesn’t bode well for consistency and success and if he doesn’t get it headed in the right direction then Nootbaar, Yepez, Capel, Burleson, whoever better be ready to step up for a time share in LF.

    #176938
    Bob Cobb
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    As much as some of us want to ignore it, we are NOT a large market organization. You can’t blame DeWitt for wanting to make a profit every year. Do any of us work for nothing? I have seen plenty of teams “go for it” every year and come up short. Look at the Mets this past year. They traded for the best of shortstops, then signed him to a long term deal. They made other moves that made them favorites with the pundits. They finished 77-85, 11 1/2 games behind the Braves. It happens to many teams every year.

    Also, you can’t always believe Mozaliak’s statements to the media. How many times did he say a deal for Arenado wasn’t going to happen. Until it did. As soon as he says, “We are looking for a shortstop”, the price increases. Haven’t you ever bought a car? Lol. You can be sure that Mo will be quietly checking around on every free agent. The Cards have a number in mind on every possible free agent that fits what they want to accomplish this off-season. It’s not likely that a match can be found with a shortstop, but you never know. I remember so-called Cardinal fans saying Mo would never pull the trigger on a Goldschmidt deal. Until he did.

    The Cardinals have a plan. They’re not going to tell you every detail. I think Mo has done a decent job considering the parameters DeWitt has given him. I did have a problem with him firing Shildt, but if we go deep into the playoffs next year, I’ll gladly defer. If we fall flat on our face, it might be time for Mo to go. I think it’s kind of all or nothing when you fire a successful manager for “philosophical differences.” Your “philosophy” better work! (I like Marmol, by the way. But that doesn’t make it right.)

    #176939
    stlcard25
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    I came as soon as I could. Is everyone all right? I just heard someone screaming.

    Lol, best comment on this thread. I thought the yelling was a bit much, myself.

    #176942
    Cards667
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    Maestro,

    I’d agree the Cardinals aren’t a large market. When it comes to “market size” I think belive St. Louis ranks somewhere around 20th, but they are the 7th most valuable team. The major problem with the open market of MLB, and I’m 100% not against the open market system, is the New York and Los Angeles markets are so much bigger than the rest of the league the luxury tax almost doesn’t even effect them and other teams can’t get into bidding wars with them because they essentially have unlimited money. The market size drop down to Chicago and Philadelphia is substantial continues to drop quickly.

    Edit:

    Do the Cardinals Deserve a Competitive-Balance Pick?


    Article from 2017 about market sizes and revenue. Specifically talking about the Cardinals. A little has changed in the 5 years, such as TV contracts and the Cardinals having one of the larger ones, but the LA teams have huge ones now too, but a lot of that is still relevant.

    #176943
    Bob Cobb
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    Maestro

    I like it. I have friends that are big “Seinfeld” fans that call me “Maestro” every time they see me.

    #176944
    Bob Cobb
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    Both of those players came through trades not free agency.

    But the Cardinals still PAY them, don’t they?

    Your first post said, “But the fact that they don’t want to spend the money on top quality players who could push the team over the top…” It doesn’t matter if they were signed or traded for, they still pay their salaries, which undercuts your original point.

    #176949
    Cards667
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    And the Cardinals generate a lot of revenue by filling the seats. With 2.1 million in attendance, 2021 was the lowest attendance (non “pandemic” or strike shortened year) since 1981, which attendance was barely over 1 million that year. 1982 attendance was 2.1 million. I wasn’t alive for either, so I’m not sure why 1981 was so low. 2021 was the first time since 2003 (2.9 million) attendance was under 3 million. If the DeWitt’s don’t find a way to start filling the seats and continuing to generate revenue don’t expect any sort of big contracts and the payroll will be dropping WAY down and the Cardinals budget is going to be way closer to the likes Cleveland, Colorado, Minnesota. Living in Southern Indiana, pretty much equal distance from St. Louis as to Cincinnati, there are MANY MANY more Cardinals fans, heck there are more Cubs, who are double the distance, fans than Reds fans. I also know quite a few people who can only afford to attend 1 or 2 games a year and they will chose to catch the Cardinals in Cincinnati for 1 of those games where the cost of attending a game is less than half of that in St. Louis…and Cincinnati still only draws about 1.5-1.9 million a year the last 30 years, outside of 2010-15 when they had some really good teams, and coming off those years, and still didn’t have outstanding attendance.

    #176950
    Cards667
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    I like it. I have friends that are big “Seinfeld” fans that call me “Maestro” every time they see me.

    I’m glad you understand it. But I assumed it was a Seinfeld reference or if your name is Bob Cobb you’ve heard the reference at least 1000 times.

    #176960
    Pork Twain
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    I see people mixing up team value and market size on purpose all the time. The overall value of a team does not dictate cash flow or how much a given team can spend every year. Being 7th in value does not impact that they are ranked 19th in MLB market size. Then again, people screaming on a fan board about how other people spend their money, are not really too concerned with reality.

    Take the Biltmore mansion, in Ashville, NC, which was built by the Vanderbilts. It is worth a ton of money but relies on charging visitors an arm and a leg to sustain itself. It is worth a ton, but is in a very small market.

    The FA market is moving very slowly this year due to the pending lockout on 2 Dec. Someone so upset about lack of moves, should be aware of that.

    #176964
    stlcard25
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    For the most part, Mo has avoided the big signings. It’s inarguable that overall, this has been to the club’s benefit. Think about the payroll situation right now if they had David Price or Jason Heyward clogging up $20-30M a year?

    That said, it’s fair to argue that there are specific players that would have made some sense to pursue. Scherzer is the biggest example, of course. Some argued for Bryce Harper a couple years ago and he’s probably going to be MVP. That big lefty bat would look nice in our lineup. There are calls to look at Scherzer or Seager or Story or Correa this year. Time will tell if those big paydays will pay off.

    I think it’s also fair to question whether the strategy of trading for guys rather than just spending money on the market is foolproof. Yes, we got Ozuna, Goldy and Arenado and we had a pitching surplus but lost some pretty darn good players in the process. Sometimes it seems like Mo and Dewitt are simply afraid of any kind of bidding war and would rather trade prospect capital. In the case of Goldy, we lost a decent catcher and some other depth and then paid big bucks for the extension only for his 2019 career worst year to bring the wisdom of such a deal into question. It’s worked out but it’s fair to wonder how things would look with Alcantara, Gallen and Weaver in the rotation and Goldy on board as a FA signing.

    I’d like to see the FO be a bit more aggressive right now as I think there’s a window open with Goldy and Arenado aging, guys like Flaherty, O’Neill, Carlson, and Edman still cheap, Gorman and Libby entering the league, and Yadi and Waino finishing their careers. I don’t know if that window stays open past 2023 so a little salary bump now could push us past the other NL contenders. Then again, putting too much money on one player can really hurt you if they aren’t great. So there is some risk…

    #176970
    gscottar
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    Market size is a very subjective term. Different people have different definitions. If you base it on population then St. Louis is not very big, although the metro area is larger than you think. A lot of people live in the suburbs. But if you base it on size of the fan base then you could make the argument that Cardinals are up there with the big boys. The Cardinals usually have a payroll inside or close to the top 10 and I would say that is indicative of their true market size.

    I have modified my views a bit on team building. I used to be an advocate of spending to the max and going up to the luxury tax if necessary but not any longer. Most of the front offices who I would consider the smartest don’t do it that way. There has to be a foundation of building from within combined with shrewd trades and free agent signings, but you must limit the number of long term contracts you have because they usually don’t work and end up being an albatross.

    Who do I consider to have the smartest front offices? I would probably go with the Dodgers, Giants, Rays, A’s, and Guardians (Indians). I know that I am the lone wolf in comparing the Cards and Dodgers but I maintain that they both rely on building from within. Of the the ten playoff teams from 2021 the Cards and Dodgers ranked first and second with the number of homegrown players on the roster. The difference is that the Dodgers go much bigger when they do outside acquisitions therefore their payroll will always be higher. But how many long term contracts (three years or longer) do the Dodgers have? One.

    Look at the Giants. They are definitely a large market team but they don’t sling money around like candy. They are constantly looking at value buys. They won 107 games last year with a combination of near washed up veterans and no name misfits who outperformed their expectations by a mile. It can’t be a coincidence that the same organization is able to find guys like Yastremski, Gausman, and Solano and turn them into highly productive players. How many long term contracts do they have? Zero

    The Rays’s, A’s, and Guardians are all small market teams who consistently perform way over their heads. It just can’t be a coincidence that this happens annually. They are all three a testament that you don’t have to spend a lot of money to put a winner on the field if you know what you are doing. How many long term contracts do those three teams have? The Rays have one but it is a small AAV, A’s have zero, and Guardians have zero.

    All of this to say that chasing the big free agents is usually a fool’s errand. Sometimes they work out but more often than not they are regrettable. The Cardinals need to focus on beefing up the farm system, make smart trades, and smarter and low key free agent signings and avoid the long term contracts. They are out there. If other teams can do it why can’t we?

    #176978
    gscottar
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    I should probably add the Brewers as having a very good front office also. They have turned into a powerful team on a somewhat limited budget.

    #177000
    bicyclemike
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    We will see about O’Neill Cards667. He figured some things out this year, and was a beast. He is right in the prime of his career age-wise.

    He will always K a lot, but looked like he gained confidence, and with the natural talents of power and speed, he looks ready to really break out, barring injury of course.

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