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I would have rather gone with the higher AAV than giving out the 4th year.
In this case, I think the longer term will actually benefit the Cards. He’s here 2022-25. If you look forward, who are we still going to be paying that last year? Arenado is the only contract we have for that time. Of the guys on the team, only Flaherty, Hudson, O’Neill, Bader and maybe Reyes are core guys who will be eligible for free agency by then. Flaherty probably won’t sign here anyway. I suspect there will be a lot of flexibility by 2025 and if Matz is even decent, he’ll be an ok contract to have.
According to fangraphs.. even after Matz signing we are still 15 million below our 2021 salary. We still looking for another pitcher or maybe another bat? Sure would be nice to know if the DH is coming.
In this case, I think the longer term will actually benefit the Cards.
Well I really hope you are right. I keep having Fowler/Leake/Cecil flashbacks. Giving a long term deal to an average-ish player just doesn’t seem like a good idea even if the AAV is somewhat manageable.
Fowler rejected a Q-offer from the CHC before signing w/stl. Average-ish players don’t often receive those.
Fowler picked a good time to have one of his best seasons, his walk year of 2016. It inflated his value which led him to receiving his ill-fated contract from the Cardinals.
The unknown for now is what the Cardinals’ defense and Busch stadium will do for Matz. It sure did a lot for Lester, Happ, McFarland, and Luis Garcia. Some of the balls that were caught with the outfielder almost up against the wall would have scored runs in other stadiums. Then, there’s that Cardinals infield with three out of a possible four GG’s. Then, there’s Yadi.
Matz is a ground ball pitcher so I think our defense should help him a lot. Though if they do decide to move the walls in, things can change cause usually when ground ball pitchers do give up the fly balls, they tend to travel a bit.
I would have preferred getting Jon Gray for a little more $$, but as has been stated before, Matz should have a solid chance to improve given the Cards elite defense. I can also see us being able to trade Matz down the road, if say a Liberatore, or Pallante impresses. I don’t believe 11 mill a year will detract too much from a trade. Certainly this isn’t as comparable to Carpenter or Fowler contracts. Even Mikolas makes way more than Matz.
I would have preferred getting Jon Gray
I think Mo was looking for a lefty.
Also, I notice that Gray had an unimpressive line away from his home field last year. 1.528 WHIP. His BAbip against was .236 at home and .360 away. Wow, not sure what explains that. He may be the only pitcher ever who would be better off staying in Denver.
Those splits for John Gray are probably due to a high degree of randomness. I doubt he will see the same results in ‘22. Playing in the NL West, you see a lot of the Dodgers, Giants and Padres and they likely lit him up a few times in their home parks.
That is the thing with modern statistics. They get refined to the point of where randomness is such a big part of the equation, that what you think is a tendency, or strength/weakness is really just small sample random events.
They overpaid for Matz in my opinion. I would have been much happier with 3/27 than 4/44. But if Matz is costing 4/44 what’s Gray or Stroman going to cost? I’d rather have Matz at 4/44 than whatever either of them are going to cost. Those 2 could end up having better seasons than Matz, but I think Matz will be much more cost effective.
Jon Gray was a wise guy to avoid, I think. Here are his career splits.
Home 4.54 ERA
Road 4.65 ERAHome .737 OPS allowed
Road .765 OPSIt confounds common sense, but the guy really was no more effective away from Coors — if anything he was worse.
I like the Matz signing quite a lot. At just 11 mil per year, I wouldn’t have minded 5 or even 6 years. Lefties tend to age well.
All Matz has to do to be worth his contract is stay on the mound and throw strikes.
I agree bling. The question is can he stay on the mound for four years?
Going forward four seasons, who knows, with any pitcher.
Looking back four seasons, Matz has more GS and IP than Wainwright, our anchor.
Steven Matz
St. Louis Cardinals
$44M/4Signing Bonus – $2M
$8M – 2022
$10M – 2023
$12M – 2024
$12M – 2025Plus: $200K each for 130ip; 140ip; 150ip; 160ip; 170ip
Plus: $50K All Star
$50K Cy Young ($25K-2nd-5th)
$25K for LCS/MVP
$50K for WS/MVP— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 29, 2021
Smart move to backload the deal so that the payroll hits harder when we have a lot more flexibility. I think this one turns out to be a very solid deal. I could see him putting up 10 WAR in the four years.
It’s all fair across the board. Though if he had held off, he might have got more from someone based off these crazy amounts teams are giving out.
IMO, the Wainwright comparison is an excellent counter to the durability questions. Plus, there are incentives for Matz to extend his innings. In this market, this contract looks exceptional. Kudos to the Cardinals for moving quickly.
And there is no doubt he wants to be here…
I’m fired up to join one of the most historic & respected franchises in all of baseball in the St. Louis @Cardinals. Throwing to Yadi, on a team with 5 @RawlingsSports Gold Glovers, & in front of one of the most passionate fan bases in pro sports… Is going to be incredible!!🔥
— Steven Matz (@Smatz88) November 30, 2021
In this market, this contract looks exceptional.
That is the key Brian. In a vacuum the Matz deal looks questionable but compared to this crazy market it now looks like a bargain.
Upon further review, it’s almost too “exceptional”, Scotty. Scherzer is Scherzer, but come on…… Scherzer, who is nearly as long in the tooth as Waino…..7 years older than Matz, will be making four times as much as Matz per annum. It’s kind of like what would you rather have? A Bentley with 440k miles on her or a nice little Ford Taurus with 40k?
Some players take extra care of their bodies and age let’s say “better”. Wainwright and Scherzer are just two examples… they’re studs. Look around at the people you know…. don’t some appear to be in better shape than others…. its taking care of yourself and genes. Gordie Howe played NHL hockey when he was 52 years 11 days. Howe also had two sons that played in the NHL….. good genes. IMO Howe was the best player to lace ’em up.
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