[thejager]

seems solid signing

as for defensive issues?

– pitch framing won’t matter too much longer with auto balls and strikes coming, and it is also something that can be improved
– “calling a game” always seemed pretty subjective to me…he didnt always have the greatest pitchers to work with in Chicago…and results tend to dictate how “good” a game was called….new organization different hopefully better pitchers makes that better…and pitching coaches and preparation can make this better…not to mention technology may come to limit that “skill”
– still has one of the strongest arms in the league, he has good quick release with bigger bags and limiting throw-overs by pitchers arm strength for getting stolen base threats will be way more important…big arm makes up for that

At the end of the day we got a very good hitting catcher, good enough defense for the job and changing landscape of catching and MLB

Also, had we went with a guy who was decent at plate and good at defense, we would forever equate their “good” defense to Yadi’s greatness…unfairly….by getting bat that is ahead of what Yadi ever could do makes sure that the new catcher is lauded for their strengths not in comparison to Yadi but because it isnt even a comparison…. defense can NEVER be equal so why even try…and whiel we are rooting for his bat we can see a development with his defense …even at 30

remember, Yadi was never supposed to hit…we were happy with that… maybe this is the opposite…don’t go into like he was brought here to BE yadi…he was brought in to play and hit better than Yadi could…and maybe just maybe he turns into a pretty good defender along the way kind of like how Yadi added his bat along the way

just dont expect both…we didnt with Yadi and we SHOUDLNT with Contreras

[thejager]

While i’d love Mullins…I’m gonna bark again on Santander (and Mateo) from the O’s…Santander hit 33HRs last year plays a fine LF and is a switch hitter, he isn’t super young (28) so price has to be reasonable and he is relatively cheap salary wise. I think we could get a solid 2-3yrs out of him at worst which lines right up with Walker probably coming into his own.

Mateo makes so much sense to me too, but i get others dont have the same fascination

Santander will be at top of his value, but he provides just about everything we are looking for.

Hudson + Noot + another prospect makes sense to me…
if we want Mateo…prospect package goes up
Hudson + Burleson + solid pitching prospect Zach Thompson?

we get to move on from DeJong or stick him in the minors without leaving us without a SS, we get a switch hitting LF hitter with power…all for a relatively cheap price that allows us to go out and buy a new toy for catcher

[thejager]

how many years in a row do we have to hear about DeJong retooling or changing and it’s all gonna work this time?

i will pull for him but any dependence on his bat should be thrown out the door an disregarded

[thejager]

Mariners seem to be shuffling OFers etc.

Kyle Lewis seems like a missed opportunity, despite the injuries his upside is far too good…and they gave up a catcher…feel like we could have made a good deal there

-pick up Tapia…he’s not a world beater but good AVG, play all 3 OF positions, speed, good bridge age to get to Walker
-sign Q
-sign Contreras
-trade for Mateo from O’s
-send DeJong back to AAA if possible and make him earn the bench spot or dump deal, can’t carry dead weight anymore
– DVH is also on a short leash in ST

—
though i still am kinda interested in that Santander + Mateo trade idea i thought up a while ago
Santander has real power, Mateo crazy speed…both a rent that expensive…O’s might be a good Hudson trade destination…add in some more ore to get that deal done and after we could still afford Contreras and maybe Q

Santander and Contreras definitely bring the combined 50HR thump as well as Santander switch hitting
Q upgrades the rotation
Mateo brings free SBs and flex and SS/OF

[thejager]

Saw Tapia was designated for assignment by TOR

snatch him up, still a lot of upside and would be a great option for the OF

not necessarily the ONYL answer but would definitely force them to evaluate Noot properly instead of him being the only option

[thejager]

2/24 for Q?

I’m in

[thejager]

thanks for the write up on that article

seems a catcher and an OF bat are on the grocer list

20m to spend

I still see Contreras as in play if we want
or
use some prospects for Murphy and spend the money on an OF bat
or
Murphy and Laureano combo deal?
or
spend money on a bigger pitcher
and/or
trade Hudson for a bat

easiest road is:
– Contreras
– trade for an OF bat or go with what we have, maybe find a Dickerson type for cheap
– go with what we have for pitching

but maybe go with:
– FA mid tier pitcher and mid tier OF bat…let’s say Quintana and Haniger
– trade for Murphy or a Toronto C

At the end of the day i still feel like we do:

– one big FA
– one big trade
– extend a guy or two
– go with at least one position internally based on hope for rebound or breakout

[thejager]

I was thinking about the Orioles and Hudson

Orioles might be a good change of scenery for him

Hudson + Bedell + Walsh
for
Santander + Mateo

solid power hitting OFer and speedy util/SS

Baseball trade values has this as fair…but i feel like the O’s may want a higher profile prospect than Walsh and Bedell… maybe Mejia? He would be an overpay on that site, but it might get the deal done

-Santander’s 33 HRs may be high for him, but 25 is still plenty
-Mateo with the new pickoff and base size rules…may be a worth his weight in gold

then either pay Contreras or trade big for Murphy
let’s say trade for Murphy for fun
-Burleson + Yepez + Libertore + Baez – Woodford

then go big on an Ace with that money…maybe big Rodon deal?

Edman Goldy Arenado Santander Murphy Gorman (DH) ONeill Carlson Donovan
Mateo Knizner Noot DeJong
Rodon Mik Jack Monty Waino
Hels Gall Hicks Stratton ZachT Jojo Matz Pall VanderH Reyes Packy etc.

not too bad

[thejager]

Kyl…i like that Dejong Hudson trade for Kepler…though i actually think we’d have to add in another prospect…nothign crazy but something decent

but i just dont see anyone taking DeJong without a huge prospect add-on and the FO rarely admits their failure. DeJong will be on the bench in ST

If i were him or the FO I would have sent him to AFL (kinda like ONeill did this year) and then to a winter league. The best he looked this year was briefly after he had been playing a lot (and even when he came to our attention in the first place was after an AFL successful stint)

[thejager]

The way Quintana plaeyd a the end of the year even in playoffs was exceptional…didn’t look like a guy that was getting lucky. Im not saying a 5 yr deal, but i’d go 3 with him i think

also the projections last year were off by about 2 on the ERA and they went right back to that with that 3.99..that seems conservative as they always are..

will he be sub 3 again this year? I doubt it,m but let’s also not discount that he spent half the year pitching for a team that was not good and didnt help his stats…so his numbers this year may be better than they look…maybe not a full year of 2nd half with a good team like StL but not as bad as having to pitch half a season for PITT

Monty slowed down…Quintana got better as the year went on, with the pressure and the focus…when he was young adn in Sale’s shadow he did well and was putting up solid numbers…went to Anaheim and they wanted the big numbers without the shadow for him…Pitt he just wanted to prove he wasnt as bad as Angels numbers….and he did…then put him on a Cardinals team with so many distractions and he found his groove and spot…

i think he is prime for a couple good years with us…and i would like to think he knows at this point the “type” of team he wants to go to. And i think that StL is that type…will we get a huge discount…no…but i think our offers will get a bit more consideration, even if a little lower

[thejager]

GS….Spotrac has us at ~103 before Waino defer. They are “projecting” ~148 before Waino and WITH arb

There is no guarantee we don’t trade from arb or pre-arb eligible pool (Hudson, maybe ONeill or even Jack)…i bring it up as to why i roughly laid out financials

103 – 10 (waino) = 93 (why not include that? that seems the point of the deferment is to allow for more potential spending)

add 44 (my vague ideas) (which also included trading Hudson…arb eligible) = 137

your 180 – 137 = 43 for arbitration and pre-arb
spotrac has ~38 and ~6 for arb and pre-arb = 44 (including Hudson who I had included in trade)

181 total

seems a pretty do-able estimation and right at the 180 you were considering

My point is never the specifics of the money or even the players (though they are who i lean towards today)…the pint is that we can add from outside pretty significantly as the payroll has some room

[thejager]

Was looking at Spotrac a little

So right now before arb or any moves (other than Waino) we sit at about 106 (remove 10m of Waino deferred) so about 96, and with remarks about spending going up…i think there is a legitimate chance we add several pieces

-Contreras 4yrs 70m (from VivaElBirdos article write up)
-Quint 3yr 30m (no info on Spotrac for market value, but 10m per too low?)
-Haniger 3yrs 45m (spotrac says about 15m value)
-Mateo trade…arb1 estimate 1.5-ish…not sure what to send but maybe Dakota Hudson

that adds (before other arbs): 44mil putting us around 140mil
arbs will raise it up, but seems workable, even if you raise Quint and Contreras up a bit it still comes in workable

We could go big on Turner or Xander, but that just doesnt seem like the pissing match Moz likes…an early good offer to Contreras might work while other teams line up trade offers to TOR and OAK..and try to game a Vazquez deal…

Mik, Quint, Monty, Jack, Waino…Matz,Libertore,Pallante
– solid enough, decent depth

Edman/Mateo-SS,Haniger-RF,Goldy-1,Nado-3,Contreras-C,ONeill-LF,Dylan-CF,Yepez/Gorman-DH,Edman/Mateo-2b
– Solid lineup
– bench of Knizner, Donny, Noot, Yepez works, and with versatility should be a boon to rest

[thejager]

pitching hasnt failed us the last 2 yrs, it has been hitting

Cardinals are very good and consistent at drafting, developing, and finding diamonds in the rough in regards to pitching.

They aren’t as consistent about producing top level hitters, good yes…great? rarely

since Pujols….maybe Taveras…maybe Walker

Gorman was supposed to be slam dunk
Carlson
DeJong
Carp
Craig
Rasmsus
Drew

I like our developed hitters, i think they fit really well in with the proven bats you can acquire, they fill out a team with solid to good hitters internally..save that money and keep the churn on

but we need help right now…

and we find pitchers ever year im not worried about pitching at all

I’d love an indomitable Ace..but that is no guarantee…Max and DeGrom got washed out of the playoffs and both spent significant time on the IL

Hitting is hard…put your money into guys who have proved they can do it…like Goldy…like Arenado…like Pujols even (who carried the offense the last month)

and before them…Edmonds, Rolen, Berkman, Beltran…proven hitters made the difference on the big teams that made big strides

I love the Memphis mafia it’d be great to produce everything internally…but sometimes you have to look at your history and honestly look at what we are good at…then use outside places to fill in…and that is hitting

Mikolas, Jack, Waino, Matz, Montgomery….that’s not bad…maybe see if you can bring back Quint reasonably…

Trout trade or Contreras signing…that helps the offense…and defense..

i know Contreras gets some crap for calling games and his framing…but auto balls and strikes are coming and getting better at calling a game can happen and be mitigated by the coaching staff

also..the bases are getting bigger…means more running…means a stronger arm is VERY valuable…and his is the best

Could we afford?
Contreras
Haniger
Quintana
Juan Mateo

Because that checks every box to me…SP, 3position OF with healthy bat, hitting catcher that can throw, and versatile SS/2b/CF who can steal a bag at any time

or trade for Trout for the ultimate vet hitter signing and see how much you have left over to spend

[thejager]

Well certainly changes

and it seems Ivan and Knizner are no longer the future…unless maybe we aim for Sal Perez

One big trade
one good FA
a couple extensions seemed to be the norm before

maybe with explicit increase we are looking at going from one good FA to two good ones or one BIG FA

[thejager]

even approaching a halfway good offer would be fine with me for DeJong

best case is probably a dump salary like Fowler…maybe a bad contract swap…

i think he is sitting right on the bench as he did most of this year. Until he hits he is only good for giving a day off to Edman at SS.

[thejager]

I dunno…I think they go with Knizner and Herrera

When they called up Herrera I thought they kind of showed their hand… and not that Knizner is the future but Ivan is..

Knizner wasnt really auditioning to be the starting catcher…he was auditioning to show he is the backup…and if he showed more then so be it…he didnt

Knizner is backup catcher…and he has played like one, there is probably ab it more from him with true starting time…but probably not much…

Ivan…well he is almost ready…another offseason of development and go into Spring Training with him getting a lot of time which is easy for ST…

Id imagine we start the year with Knizner and a veteran journeyman catcher backing him up (let’s just say Godoy for fun) while Ivan starts at AAA….a month or two in as long as Ivan is playing well…and as long as Knizner ISNT….they make the switch….maybe after All Star Game…but we will see

They got that Allen kid from Oakland who i assume will be the AAA catcher once Ivan is up for good.

If they trade for or sign a catcher then they are admitting their plan for post Yadi was failure…and blocks Ivan from any chance…and Ivan hasnt gotten a shot yet…no way they throw away a top prospect without giving him a chance.

and he’d have lessened value in a trade if we put him out there too, if we sign Contreras or trade for Murphy…then it signals Ivan is available and NOT good enough…thus cratering his value…. if you try to move him FIRST…then you lose some of his value as WHY is the first question the other GM would ask…and then as result you drive UP the price in a trade or FA dollar amount seeing as you have no leverage because you traded it away…thus you cant walk away….and Knizner isn’t gonna cut it

a better bat is needed…but the spot is the outfield, preferably one who can play CF

Our team will not falter because we get no offense from the catcher spot, the key is that those catchers can call good games and at least control the running game enough to not be taken advantage of….the offense will fail because ONeill, Carlson, Gorman don’t rebound….and that Edman, Donny, Noot, Nolan and Goldy dont keep it up

A solid outfield bat
One Starter
Waino return

C-Knizner, vetFA
1-Goldy, Yepez
2-Gorman, Donny, Edman
3-Arenado, Donny, Yepez, Edman
SS-Edman, DeJong
LF-ONeill, FA-OF, Noot, Donny, Yepez
CF-Carlson, FA-OF, Noot
RF-FA-OF, Carlson, Noot, Donny, Yepez
DH-Yepez, Donny, Noot

I’d love to be done with DeJong in dump deal, then bring in Juan Mateo on a 2yr deal, to backup or start at SS/CF/2b and steal bases

Haniger
Quint
Waino
Mateo (if DeJong can be moved)

[thejager]

thank Oli…reading an old article

[thejager]

he still was top 5 MVP for AL this year, also still played well in field. And he can transition to corner outfield and probably 1b and obv. DH later if needed

I would think the Angels would pick up some money on that contract, less if we try to get DeJong in that deal obv.

As for being over 30 (he just turned 30) Cardinals dont seem to care about that with Goldy and Arenado. As long as they produce. And Trout produces

last year he was out a bit…ok…but he still played 36 games and hit 8hrs and hit .333
but 2020…he hit 2017 during COVID year and hit .281
this year…hit 40..hit .283 and played 120 games

even if he dropped some power..his consistency is unparalleled

If we target Goldy and Arenado…we would definitely target Trout if available for the right price

It’s a big contract…but he seems more than capable of contributing at a high level for at least 5 more years…then there are 3 declining probably…and at 37m…that’s a lot…but if used right (and as Pujols proved) truly great players can rise to the occasion

Trout is no ordinary player…probably greatest player of this post Pujols generation…and and all time great

combing him with Goldy and Arenado for their early mid 30s while we groom the kids feels a lot like the years before Pujols and Yadi…veteran stars holding it down while we search for the new internal star

If they’d eat 100m…forcing us to include some very good prospects i’d think…i think it is a no brainer

Hudson + Hence + Burleson + Baez + CThomas

(that feels like a lot…and it should…maybe even more so)

but looking at the Arenado deal…which would have to be the model Moz would work…even if the Angels GM seems a bit more competent IMO…though TBH…the decisions that organization makes is pretty crazy too…

I’d like to include Ivan or Knizner…but if we are adding on salary…i doubt we add Trout AND a FA catcher with no clear future catcher….

I think a big reason you GO for Trout is so you don’t have top worry about Knizner or Ivan contributing…allowing them to focus on defense first (Just like we did with Yadi) while the big bats carry the team…they can sit in the 8 spot and any offense is bonus

Trout plus Waino and Quintana and a bunch of hope for rebounds and no sophomore slumps and positive injury returns from feels a lot like a Cardinals offseason to me

1 big (trout) (arenado, goldy…
1 obv (Waino) (waino, yadi,
1 hopeful and probably a little overpay (Quintana)….(Matz, Mik

[thejager]

Nice work STLCard

pretty reasonable

Personally I am still trying to decide what I’d like to see happen vs what I think is likely and balance that well for a good post…

As of today…I am going towards few changes but impactful ones

– One important trade
– One important signing
– an extension or two
– depending on rebounds or continuations of past success or expected advancement
– a bunch of ST invites and non 25 man roster moves
– maybe a dump

so…
– trade for Mike Trout (Hudson, Burleson, Baez, Baker)
– Quintana and Waino re-signed
– Monty extension
– Knizner and Hererra get their chance (they committed to this they arent just going to give up on it and admit they were wrong)
– Rebounds and dependence on/from Carlson, ONeill
– Gorman will not be given up on
– expectation and dependence that Noot, Donovan won’t regress
– dump DeJong in Angels deal if you can, if not you hold him and hope for best as there is no better SS for the bench. Like the last year of Carp, it’s hard to watch but it is what it is.

Edman, Trout, Goldy, Arenado, Oneill, Gorman, Yepez, Carlson, Knizner
Donovan, Ivan, Noot, Deluzio, DeJong
Mik, Quint, Monty, Waino, Jack
Helsley, Hicks, Gallegos, Pallante, Jojo, Matz, Woodford, Reyes, Genesis, VanDerH….etc.

Trout seems available, feels like a Moz move. Quintana is as good as anything else we may look for.

It’s weird to think bringing in Trout is my conservative idea for the offseason…but i think it is…

Still the team really doesnt have to do anything…they can field a team without making a move…and it isnt all that bad…Rotation of Mik, Jack, Monty, Hudson, Matz isn’t all that exciting…but it works.

For me the biggest thing the team is missing is an impact OF. Jordan is coming but it is dumb to depend on him too early (ahem..Yepez, Gorman, Carlson as saviors hasnt worked out as planned)

Trout makes a lot of sense, but i could also see a stopgap like Brantley, Haniger, etc.

I like the “idea” of Conforto but until i see him healthy i cant commit. The Cardinals need a steady dependable bat and outfielder (preferably CF)…Trout or Haniger feel like the options for me.

I’d love to pick up a cheap Mateo on a 1 or 2 year deal who can play SS/2b and CF and can steal me a base at will. But with DeJong around that isnt happening

Anyways….first of many

[thejager]

Trout “injured” this year put up All Star + numbers.

We got Arenado without having to pay the full price, the right prospects back, the right deal, and yeah ill take Trout for 8yrs.

And shaving some money off the books is what the Angels want right? to pay up for Ohtani? Well, i think if the Cards can shave off 100m it becomes palatable at 196m, and at 24m per year…even has he ages…that’s far from bad.

Trout is still elite on defense, running and hitting, not to mention being a fearsome opponent. He also is baseball player, and if he ages out of CF that’s ok, first to the corners…then to 1st or at least DH at the end.

No one thought we could get Goldy and he’d extend…we did
No one thought we could get or afford Arenado….we did

History seems to show we definitely can make these deals happen…there is a huge star power vacuum happening with Albert and Yadi leaving…Nolan and Goldy are great…but the FO needs to fill that vacuum…Trout is everything we don’t have and need

Will they go for it? I doubt it, but many doubted Nolan too…and a disgruntled or motivated player on the other end can force it a bit too.. ALbert can help as well

[thejager]

1tough….i think he watched Pujols go back there after hearing about it for the last 10yrs from Albert and get so much love and respect…then looked at his own team./fanbase which seems to care little for him as they embrace Ohtani as he passes milestone after milestone and i think he may just push for it

Trout fits right in with Goldy and Arenado…kinda same age bracket…all potential HOFers (Goldy may be borderline)

Cardinals show up and appreciate greatness…as you finish your career isnt that what you w ant? Instead of some neverending rebuild in LAA?

[thejager]

Our pitching was pretty great in the wild card.,…outside of an injury induced blow up by one of the top relievers in all of baseball

offense ALL YEAR sputtered when the bigs didnt contribute…. Arenado Goldy during most of the season kind of jockeying back and forth month to month.. and Pujols in the last month

They need a dependable bat or TWO…I do believ Carlson will be better as he was pretty banged up and Oneill should return a bit better after his injuries…. but they still need something more

hitters like Haniger, Bryan Reynolds, solid contributors who will never hurt you but may never be able to carry you either…add in a go big Contreras move with his power and i think the offense will be fine…especially as Gorman, Yepez improve, and Walker ascends

[thejager]

I wonder if we could package DeJong with Hudson and Hererra/Knizner and Burly for something good

Trout?

DeJong, Hudson, Knizner, Burleson
Trade simulator says that is an overpay by us of more than 5…i think you HAVE to overpay…and maybe even more

Then look for a veteran catcher to play with Herrera…Tucker Barnhart?
and re-sign Q
find a veteran SS on the cheap…maybe Jorge Mateo on the cheap…he can play all over and is a top stolen base threat

Donovan, Goldy, Trout, Arenado, ONeill, Gorman, Carlson, Herrera, Edman
Yepez, Mateo, Barnhart, Noot
Q, Mik, Monty, Matz, Jack/……Waino/Pallante/Libertore/field
Helsley, Hicks, Gallegos, Jojo, Genesis, etc.

[thejager]

I keep coming back to Mike Trout… it seems ridiculous…but so did Goldy then Arenado… and Moz seems to have a talent for getting deals like that done…it wouldn’t be cheap, but it would be effective and fill the hole we have, whiel also allowing us to give Herrera and Knizner a year to show their wares as Trout would undoubtedly make up for any loss at the plate from either of them

Outside of going for Trout…i still want to look at older outfielders…and i will harp again on
MITCH HANIGER, all around good player, unfortunate injuries kept him down but he won’t hurt you…kinda like Bryan Reynolds but a bit better IMO

go for him and a catcher and try to move DeJong

I like Murphy but he will be sought after…I hate to say it but i do like Contreras as plug and play…he will always control the basepaths with that arm and we have become accustomed to that

If the A’s were keen on Hudson and one decent prospect id talk Murphy but i think will get way more

So I say try to package Hudson, Herrera and DEJong for a SS for a starter or instead of Haniger…a better younger outfielder and spend some money on Q

[thejager]

Didn’t want it to end like that, though as I saw someone post something to the effect of…

any ending other than a WS ring would have been a let down and not worthy of the two/3 guys who played their last game Saturday

Was this team going to win the Series? I would have loved it, but i think it probably would have needed magic, and that isn’t something to depend or bet on

This team DID have magic though, and regardless of the outcome it is one of the more memorable seasons of baseball I can remember

So many good stories and performances

Go Cards!

[Author]

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