[thejager]

Good for you Game, my thoughts are mine…i dont really care if someone agrees or not, but definitely not someone who’s amazing commentary and rebuttal is the equivalent of “nuh uh”

this is an idea thread, it’s here for throwing out ideas….not for hating on people for doing so or thinking that those that post are writing an article that everyone should agree with

and please dont respond i wont respond to you on this so dont waste your time (but undoubtedly you will..so have fun)

Bling,
you are probably right…but unless we punt 5-10yrs to get high picks (or throw huge money to international kids…which we wont do for those true impact international signings) it’s not going to happen

[thejager]

It’s not the most fun plan, but at least it is something

this next year is goign to be brutal for fans…attendance is goign to be really bad…and with the Bally upheaval i think the viewership will be down too….which will only lower the profits thus making them sell more to make their margins and hesitate to buy anything even after next year

5years is optimistic IMO

and I think most of the young players we have wont even be here for it…they will be flipped for more prospects and kick the can down the road

we are the new Pirates

Now…COULD the guys figure it out next year and we get some out of nowhere advances from some players…sure…they def have the pedigree…but without the management spending money to fill in the gaps we will just be stuck in an endless loop of developing talent only to sell it for more

[thejager]

G
I dont think you are wrong and i am exactly right…just initial thoughts really

As for your thoughts:

1. salary is still pretty high for Wilson and his recent injury problems, whether his fault or not are worrisome, plus we lost all leverage when we announced this move yesterday

2. I say you sign the swingman because it gives us the ability to make an opportunistic early season trade if need be without having to rush one of the kids (Hence, Quinn, Graceffo, Roby) before the deadline if need be. Plus, someone will get hurt from the rotation, it happens every year.

3. maybe, but Gorman hasnt really played 3b for a while, and we have seen Saggesse AND Donny there, but anything is possible and to be honest i think many of the positions are rotate-able

4. I agree on the FARP bench bats. Adam Duvall + Amed Rossario or Jose Iglesias, Kevin Newman? Though I forgot to add Carp to my above post for the bench and he serves as the platoon left hand bat.

To me, buy some flippable vets, and sell what you can at the deadline from whatever you cant deal now for solid returns.

We have enough kids bats to fill the lineup, just a few cheap bats to help bench. Then fill a rotation with guys who can get us to the deadline, where we can turn it over to the kids. And let them play.

[thejager]

Well, it looks like we aren’t going to be competing for a while folks. Said they werent focusing on putting together the best roster…yuck

I don’t know why Bloom needs 2 years of NOT being in control to finally do something, btu whatever

Probably see guys on the outs this summer

watching kids is fun, btu only so far….i dont think most of the fanbase has the stomach for the losing, and not TRYING to win that they are setting us up for.

Feels like the 90s after the 80’s success….and that took more than a decade to dig out of….ugh

Anyways, here are my initial thoughts:

GONE
– Contreras…he already spoke out that we werent hungry to win…well we arent…someone will take him, but we will get nothign more than a fringe prospect unless we eat money…and they want that money
– Gray….makes too much and wants to compete…contract isnt bad so a decent prospect or two
– Helsley…dont need a great closer if we arent trying to win…good prospect return, maybe two
– Arenado…came here to win…stayed here to win…we arent winning…fringe prospect at best if we want that money savings…and we do
– all the option guys are gone
– JoJo…has value and we arent winning…decent prospect

TOSS UP
– Matz…could keep him hoping to sell at deadline if he can regain some value
– Mikolas… ditto
– Fedde…has value…could bring back prospects…but i think his value is higher at trade deadline

BRING BACK
– Carp feels like he will be back as ridiculous as it sounds, they will try to cash in on his “vet presence” and token re-signing

FA ACQUIRE
– no one of consequence, 1 yr deal (maybe with option)
– 1 1yr deal swingman vet hoping to flip at deadline
– 1-3 1yr or STI RPs hoping to flip at deadline
– 2 journeymen hitters hoping for a castoff to contribute types…or flip at deadline (Amed Rosario)

TRADE ACQUIRE
– harder to see, but most will be prospects
– i could maybe see a trade for a guy like Bobby Miller from LAD if they are giving up on him

Rotation: (start the year)
Fedde, Mikolas, Pallante, Matz, McGreevy
Rotation: (end of year)
Pallante, McGreevy, Matthews, Graceffo, Hence

Pen:
CL- Libby
King, Fernandez, Loutos, OBrien, Ryocroft, FARP, FARP

C- Ivan
1b- Burly
2b- Saggesse
SS- Winn (will get long term extension)
3B- Donny
LF- Noot
CF- Siani
RF- Jordan
DH- Gorman (yeah, i dont think they sell low unless it is a swap of a similar underperformer)

bench: Pages, Victor, Baker, FA (OF/IF)

can’t say there isn’t upside…but the pitching will kill us

[thejager]

How do you know that?

What stats are there?

Who is doing it?

I am not saying it will work btw, but saying it doesn’t work seems to come up all the time but where is the proof?

It takes committing to it, and staying the course

It DID work in the 80’s and at times in the 90’s and the game is not all that different really.

IMO The economics of the game influenced the play more than the game actually changing.

If we paid the small ball players more, there would be more of them. Just because not many players play that way or that teams play differently doesnt mean it inherently doesnt work

AVG was a great stat for MOST of the history of baseball

My point is NOT that it will work, but if you want to “same the system” so you dont have to compete just with your checkbook, then identifying things that are undervalued i think is a worthy endeavor

The rules are in the favor of this:
– SB are a gamble so people dont do it (bigger bases, only throw over twice now…seems built for a comeback)
– high AVG is hard to achieve and find when combined with power so they forgo the AVG part (but with the no shift any more why not?)

but if you dont just “steal bases”, you get the BEST base stealers, the guys who are not as much of gamble to get it more that they WONT get the steal, then that is different

and you dont target the .250 hitters, you target .300, for everyone (and only compromise where needed), then that “small ball” can work because it isnt just one or two guys on your team that an get that second hit in the inning but the hole lineup, it no longer is a gamble to get 2 hits an inning it is an expectation

~.300 hitters get one hit a game in 9 innings (3 ABs) that means everyone gets a second AB, which means that the top 3 get a 3rd AB (which means the4 hitter gets a 4th as well), that’s 13 hits in a game. That is far too many hits to not score runs, even if singles, and if you are adding speed (those singles are doubles and those singles RBIs) it only ratchets up

No one plays these ways because, well, no one plays this way. So that is why i would look TO those ways, they may be rare, but that is exactly why it might work.

Still….while i am in favor of this style i recognize it wont happen, what i am trying to do is SOMETHING…because what we have been doing is not working.

The strategy for MLB seems to be 1 of 2 things. OVERSPEND to stay relevant. or to be really bad and HOPE you can hit on some high prospects enough years in a row that they all come up quick and CHEAP, and you bank on the cheapness of their contracts to compete.

The Cardinals did the rare other THIRD option, which was getting VERY LUCKY with several low draft prospects that ended up being HOFers, that could provide cheap high level players to combine with their middling veteran lineups that were constructed at the expense of the farm system by JOcketty to get as much bang for their Mark McGwire bump they got in the late 90’s

Waiting for another Pujols is hardly a way to be relevant and win. We keep trying to force those expectations on every prospect to justify this gameplan as relevance. It just isnt. We got REALLY lucky and didnt waste those years by shooting for a highly rated farm system.

If we want to find a new way to win, that isn’t spending money, tanking, or just getting lucky, then we should change the WAY we play.

And with a style that the fans can ENJOY and remember, can possibly create goodwill to the inevitable failures in the process along the way.

Anyways, sorry, i am just yelling in to the void in my own way

[thejager]

It’s a video game, but I tried out “The Show” 24, and decided to try building something from the roster. Wheeling and dealing, but with a plan.

It’s a video game, the trade proposals and valuation is off, but was all if felt i could do while trying to think about what to do.

I tore it down, just to see who survived and who didnt, i targeted players and teams that i thought were beneficial, and i had a couple ideas that i wanted to see. I have 3 big ideas, but i think doing both is more me just WANTING to do it ratheer than thinking it is smart to do all at once, so i just focused on a hitting change.

I tried it from pre-Spring training rosters (with injuries)

I wont share all of it, it’s not worth your time, or mine to be honest, but i will point to a few things i found interesting.

This is all made up crap, it’s fantasy, but that’s the point. But it doesnt mean that it cant be helpful or fun to think about when the sky seems falling

My BIG ideas:
(because the Cardinals will NEVER just go out and buy top players, they always have to “game the system” to stay at the top)

– Target undervalued characteristics, tactics, and stats to find cheaper solutions that produce results that outweigh the investment.
– Utilize a style that is fun to watch and nostalgic and desirable by the fan base

Overarching theme 1: HIT THE BALL, little to no consideration for power, small ball

– My targeted ways to achieve this:

– .AVG…. particularly players that have the standout feature of HIGH .AVG
– It seems this one stat has been replaced by “better” metrics, but for a long time it was one of the biggest stats that indicated performance. And it is still very relevant today, we just have less players that achieve this lofty goal of HIGH AVG, so go get the only ones out there that can do this, no matter if they have no power
– look at the last 3 years for highest average at each position, add on speed tool
– if you find a very expensive player that fits all parts, you get them (Acuna, Julio R?)
– Arraez is a major player and possibly most important player, Using the farm and all assets to bring in Acuna and Turner and Corbin Carroll is the hardest.
– When scouting you are looking for AVG and SB, power can be

Overarching theme 2: RUN, bench is full of speed and versatility

– SB is primary tool for bench and starters as much as possible
– singles become doubles with a SB, then a bunt, then a sac fly (via HIT THE BALL)
– getting one run every other inning is better than 2 or 3 once
– late game pinch running is key to late inning ties and wins
– pinch running early is not unheard of if it gives you a lead
– SB of 3rd (with 1 out) is far more on the table than ever before
– only elite speed, the guys that are the “guarantees”), more versatile the better, hit tool is great, but speed is first. Their job is to pinch run and play defense (versatile) late
– catcher with speed and versatility is something to develop in minors (convert a speedster to be a capable backup catcher)
– Jon Berti is the type of player you go get, versatile, SB threat, Bubba Thompson, Varsho (if he can still catch and will steal), if Billy Hamilton can still run you bring him in (especially if he can still play SS with some training)

Overarching theme 3: (UNUSED in my sim) NO STARTERS, Openers and closers

– utilize 6 3inning pitchers, with 3 closers, 4 setup men and 1 extra 3 inning pitcher
– 7 day rotation looks like:
P1, P2, SU1, SU2, CL1
P3, P4, SU3, SU4, CL2
P5, P6, SU1, SU2, CL3
P7, P1, SU3, SU4, CL1
P2, P3, SU1, SU2, CL2
P4, P5, SU3, SU4, CL3
P6, P7, SU1, SU2, CL1
—–normal game: 3, 3, 1, 1, 1
—–alternate: 3, 3, 2, 1
—–alternate: 3, 3, 3 (blowout loss or win)
– a 7 day rotation program allows for scheduled rest, but also the ability to extend or alter for game situations, while having a healthy amount of options at AAA ready to fill a role even if temporarily
– embrace the reliever centric game
– acknowledge the gamble on big money pitchers is not worth the investment
– can utilize younger (cheaper) players earlier if they only have to be good 1 time through
– good closers and set up men are expensive, but through rotation program they can stay fit and effective

———-another option i have tossed around is the same as this, but “STARTING a CL” so 3 inning pitchers start with 4 or 5 instead of 1, and subbing 1 SU for another CL, but i went away from it due to it meaning they will be facing best hitters when they are most tired (if that is a thing with 3 innings)
CL1, P1, P2, SU1, CL2 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL3, P3, P4, SU2, CL4 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL1, P5, P6, SU1, CL2 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL3, P7, P1, SU2, CL4 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL1, P2, P3, SU1, CL2 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL3, P4, P5, SU2, CL4 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )
CL1, P6, P7, SU1, CL2 ( 1, 3, 3, 1, 1 )

Of NOTE:
– some players in MLB game, that remained from STL:
Brendan, Victor
Zach, Libby, JoJo, Helsely, Kitt,

– Some targeted players:
Arraez, Tre Turner (obviously there area few high priced ones Acuna, Soto, Julio), William Contreras, Yandy, Yoshida, Hoerner, Corbin Carroll, mostly look at last 3yrs of highest avg and pick, Bubba Thompson, Whit Merrifield, Billy Hamilton, Michael Harris, Estury Diaz, Bubba Thompson, Jon Berti, Varsho

Yarbrough, Kopech, Mason Miller, young starters or old vets Rich Hill, Paxton, etc., guys with something tough to figure out first time

NONE of this will happen or should NEED to happen, but a post like this makes me think so i am sharing

don’t hate on me, it is an idea (the point of the thread) the specifics arent important (to a certain degree)

Anyways, that’s enough , i havent done a long post in a while so apologies

(also i probably lost my train of though jumping around in here so again, apologies)

[thejager]

Pugs. I appreciate the love.

Made me smile

[thejager]

Looks like I’m not on the screen fellas.

But the view is great

And Jack is dealing. Super locked in.

[thejager]

Well..good thing i had front row seats for tonight too…

got yesterday’s tickets refunded…AND since i have tonight’s game tickets i get to go to both games of the double header up front (and after taking some last minute “personal time” from work)

So your old pal thejager has a long day of baseball at the park! Keep an eye out, see if i nod off 😛

add on that my Bayern Munich boys play their first leg against Real at 3, i will be double fisting Cardinals and Bayern during the first game

then I have Pacers playoffs at 930pm…

woe is me right? 🙂

at least the game tomorrow during the day i have seats under the awning 🙂

Go Cards!

[thejager]

rained out folks

double header tomorrow…long day at the ballpark

[thejager]

So….every other year the team comes to Detroit, so you all get the honor of potentially seeing little old thejager on TV. I treat myself to the series and get front row behind the plate tickets. I “think” i will be on screen, but you never know. It may be poor weather, so you may only get a a Cardinals cap represent. Tuesday game i will probably have a jersey on though. 🙂

BTW weather is looking a little iffy tonight for this game folks. I live about 1 mile from the field. Rain looks to start before game time and be a bit nasty, leading to prolonged raining. I am no meteorologist obv. so i am sure it can all change

I am wondering if they will get it in, maybe a double header tomorrow.

Anyways

Go Cards!

[thejager]

could hear booing for Moz

[thejager]

I guess that xwitter post doesnt think Carlson deserves mentioning…even if i would forgive him for forgetting Rom, that is unacceptable

[thejager]

Carp hits IL

grats to Pages

but speaks more to injuries to Donovan and Willson

not gonna be good, that’s potentially 34 more to IL before even Noot can be back

(who undoubtedly will now be rushed or at least FEEL rushed within himself to get back ASAP)

This feels just like last year, first the outfielders, then position players, and finally pitching…

[thejager]

opening day

holiday in our home every year

I really wish i was more positive about the team

It’s the most pessimistic I have been for a Cardinals team at the beginning of the year in a very long time

No more “on paper” discussions, no more “spring training stats matter or don’t matter”

win or lose, move on and adjust

Go Cards!

[thejager]

1. Cardinals finish in last place in the central after rotation implodes due to injury, age, and poor performance

2. Cardinals assumed starting 5 pitchers do not finish April intact (or May if you want to take out the first month shifting)

3. Winn hits below Mendoza line

4. Goldschmidt hits less than 20 HRs

5. Helsley is the sole All Star representative

[thejager]

Gray down

There is no reason to believe we can survive the year with this rotation and the very limited depth of Libby and Zach

Monty would be nice
Snell would be nice

Both would possibly make us a real contender

But we wont move…we will pray for health and old man upsides like we did the last 3 years, and be done in by a lack of depth of quality in the rotation

Something we all have seen coming for the last 2years

[thejager]

having an MRI for hammy tightness IMO means it is more than just not having stretched out

The rotation has zero room for error by its construction, and Gray was supposed to be our #1

This at least sets him back

I thought the rotation wouldnt last a month, but i honestly thought it would last at least until the first month

so our 6 man rotation for the first month has Libby and Zach i assume forced to be in it

I miss the days when we had guys like Zach and Libby chomping at the bit and having to over achieve in AAA forcing an opening to happen instead of being forced into painfully thin rotations and depended on regardless of performance

I remain underwhelmed with all aspects of this team right now

Not one thing looks exceptional

[thejager]

trainers out to the mound for Gray

ugh

[thejager]

even with a trade (unless it is like 3 major players) this seems a weird maneuver

they barely spend money as it is and they decide JC is worth the 15mil?

I loved the Nick Ramirez and Emilio Pagan signs earlier…two guys i thought would have been great for Cards

This is just weird…even if they are making a trade…for what? Cease? that seems middling at best
Glasnow? really with his injury history?

India being traded is a mistake which he seems to be the one on the block…he is almost the closest thing they have to a veteran leader now

[thejager]

agreed about the backloading is big news

that’s 15million to play with + whatever is left and even trading…probably potential 30-40m?

but what is the target?

without moving Matz there is no rotation spot…and putting Matz in the pen is a dumb idea for 12million (same as Lynn or Gibson)…and moving Matz just doesnt seem likely with his health, unless we are going to take a loss and just dump the salary for a lottery ticket prospect…which might be the plan

if we want to go for Yamamoto or Snell or absorbing Glasnow…we now potentially have the funds

and tbh it could also mean we also have the funds to potentially absorb Soto’s pricetag for this next year

Could we find SOME way to acquire Yamamoto and Soto? as well as a reliever (maybe Luis Garcia reunion?)

THAT team looks scary

Yama
Gray
Mik
Gib
Lynn

Helsley, Garcia, GG, Lib, Jojo, Pallante, King, Zach

Noot, Soto, Goldy, Arenado, Willson, Gorman, Walker, Donny, Edman
Winn, Palacios, Ivan, Burly/Saggese?

[thejager]

even if Gibson is more a 4 than a 5 now… it doesnt change our rotation from looking like

2-3-4-4-5

There are several guys with major concerns over their performance

Gibson Lynn Matz are all question marks

could Matz be more a 3? i guess…but he’s hurt all the time
could Gibson and Lynn be more 4s than 5? sure…but who cares? bad pitchers givign lots of innings that are bad isnt helpful
could Mikolas play like a 2 again? i guess, but he coudl easily digress
Gray will undoubtedly digress from his runner up to the CY Young level he was last year, he wont be better

This rotation looks like it is already about to fall apart

and what would the postseason rotation look like? Gray, Mikolas, Matz? That does put fear into any opposing club nor spark all that much confidence for the Cardinals players

I am going to root for the team and all the players to do their best….but it is pretty depressing after what we had to watch last year

Gray + Yama or Shota…then let a kid play or bring in a cheap vet…sure

there is hope there, Gray having a nice big last year…then an unknown but exciting import?

That is how you excite a fanbase who is pretty depressed

bring in Gray who we watched already as a Red (to mixed results) and a couple of old end of their career players isnt going to make ANYONE excited, except their agents

Unless there is some Matz trade happening (as he is the only one i could see moving of him or Mik) that brings us a young pitcher from like SEA or something…i just dont see any reason to be optimistic about a raise in the level of play or outcome for the next season

really depressing…tbh

even if we trade Oneill or Carlson…so what? for what are we bringing back? money for a midlevel reliever? and a less than great replacement for the hitters? at least they have some upside and ceiling still

if we trade Donovan or Gorman or Edman how does that make us better? especially after bringing in 3 SPs?

All i see is making room for Scott III and Winn with any other moves…by moving any of our hitters…a high end reliever woudl be great, but we obviously wont pay for it..and trading hitters for relievers is not often successful as RPs are so volatile year to year for performance

Gray, Mik, Matz, Gib, Lynn
Helsley, GG, Jojo, Lib, King, Zach, Pallante
Noot (CF), Walker (RF), Goldy (1), Nado (3), Willson (c), Gorman (DH), Oneill (LF), Edman (2), Donny (2)
Ivan, Winn, Carlson, Burly

That seems like the team folks….not much to get excited about really…it’s the same team, no real potential upgrades….unless we make some Arenado/Goldy move for Trout…and even then…with our rotation it might not matter

Sure…seeing Gorman and Noot and Walker and maybe Winn get better could be fun…

but there is ZERO upside for the rotation…and while we may have a few MAYBE rotation arms in the high minors…are any of them dominating types outside of Hence? who seems more like 2025 than this year…

It’s a pretty boring team and they had a chance to get people excited through some actual spending of money signings….instead …they bring in the most boring and easy solutions

[thejager]

sigh

[thejager]

Id rather have done this move

neither of Lynn and Gibson…use that money (23) to sign a better pitcher and go with Zach Thompson for the 5 and let the other kids fight for it, maybe go for a cheap veteran 1yr deal for a Rich Hill type to be safe

now we have a 1 that is a 2-3 in G ray
a 2 that is a 3 in Mik
a 3 who is 4-5 in Matz (who cant stay healthy)
and a 4 and 5 that are 5’s at their best in their careers in Lynn and Gibson

not the most encouraging moves

[thejager]

Someone asked Moz about Yamamoto i think….he did not say no even when 200m was referred to i think…said something about terms…

I am sure Brian or someone else can find it…i think it is on Twitter

[Author]

Posts