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  • in reply to: Reds thread #120713
    Avatarthejager
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    Senzel in our OF would be fine with me… I like his high contact and versatility

    blah blha blha… intradivision… blah blah blah

    in reply to: Why not Castellenos? #120712
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    4yrs 16m seems like a steal for a guy with offense like his, as well as at his age (it will end when he is 31). not to mention the looming DH.

    Reds are definitely going for it, and have enough depth to trade from if they need something else

    in reply to: Why not Castellenos? #120710
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    Reds have done a lot SINCE last offseason too though…even if it is pretty much only one move (BAuer), not to mention the rise of Aquino

    OF: (great depth)
    Akiyama, Castellenos, Aquino, Senzel, Winker, Ervin, Jankowski, Schebler

    IF: (impressive)
    Barnhart, Votto, Senzel, Galvis, Suarez, Moose

    SP: (hard to argue as impressive)
    Bauer, Gray, Castillo, Desclefani, Miley, Mahle, Sims, De Leon

    RP: (depth seems an issue)
    Iglesias, Lorenzen, Garrett, Stephenson, Bowman

    prospects: (still impressive)
    Greene, Lodolo, India, Santillan, Stephenson, Siri

    I know it is an ON PAPER look… but they seem to have depth, youth, vets, top end starting pitching, and a closer, defense is pretty impressive even with Castellenos in there, and with the extra depth in the OF, they can remove him late if needed

    At this point in the year…ON PAPER is the only thing to look at….and ON PAPER…the Reds improved their team in all the aspects they needed to in the last 2 offseasons and trade deadlines…

    what have the Cardinals improved?

    in reply to: Dylan Carlson #120401
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    But at least he performed a bit in his little amount of time. And while he was the golden child he was only supposed to be solving the future not the present in that team

    in reply to: 2020 Cardinals line-up & rotation #120400
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    Oops!

    Thanks!

    Drop Junior to also considered

    And true Reyes is another possibility.

    ———

    Personally for me I’m it banking on Wong and Edman to be repeat performers either.

    But Carp Fowler Goldy and Yadi have all been sliding for 3 years offensively yes Goldy and CRp had amazing 2 years ago second half’s but in general not consistent.

    Our defense might be great. But why we lost to the Nats was because we had ZERO offense and were embarrassed on a national stage because of it.

    We are banking on mid 30s rebounds from far too many players as well depending on one year outbursts and promises of prospect greatness

    in reply to: Dylan Carlson #120383
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    Im worried all this talk about Carlson is setting him up for disaster, just like BAder LAST year where his face was thrown around as the savior for the team and he fizzled…. or before that with Rasmus…where the whole future of the Cardinals was on his shoulders and he knew about it every day before he came up and then then he was here

    Star players can be helpful in other ways than just performance, they can allow for the light to shine on them allowing for the younger players TIME to acclimate without feeling they HAVE to be the answer to all the problems

    in reply to: 2020 Cardinals line-up & rotation #120382
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    With Ozuna gone now, Castellenos not going to happen, and Arenado not happening….i think we have our 2020 Cardinals pretty much set folks.

    26 day opening roster:

    C- Yadi
    1- Goldy
    2- Wong (lead off)
    3- Carp
    SS- DeJong
    LF- Lane
    CF- Bader
    RF- Fowler

    UTIL-ONeill
    UTIL-Wieters
    UTIL-Edman
    UTIL-Sosa
    UTIL-Ravelo

    SP-Jack
    SP-Hud
    SP-Mik
    SP-Kim
    SP-Waino

    CL-CMart
    RP-Miller
    RP-Gallegos
    RP-Brebbia
    RP-Helsley
    RP-Webb
    RP-Junior
    RP-Genesis
    RP-Gant

    others for consideration:
    -Munoz, Carlson, Dean, Williams
    role changes possibilities:
    -CMart to rotation and Kim to relief, with Gallegos or Miller to closer
    -Fowler to leadoff, Wong down in lineup where he succeeded before
    -Edman plays 5 days a week between multiple positions, primarily 3b and OF (Carp will start no matter)
    -Oneill starts and Bader is on bench with Thomas in CF (Fowler will start no matter what)

    Sure there are a few questions over a few spots, but this is pretty much it folks. Doesn’t spark any kind of optimism for improving the offense.

    As someone else wrote, this could be an historically bad offense. And no amount of good defense, solid young pitching, and pretty baserunning will change it without monumental resurgences and hot out of the gate young players playing over their heads

    • This reply was modified 5 days, 20 hours ago by Avatarthejager.
    in reply to: Nolan Arenado trade thread #120378
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    sorry i messed up the matrix thing….i had 2012 up on my screen in baseball reference….and it says “2011” in the upper left just under the bolded 2012…but i was flipping back and forth with the years to compare the players and i made a mistake

    ALSO…i include Rasmus and Furcal as they were the players intended to be in those positions BEFORE the year started, which is what we are discussing now…who was playing where in the Series is not important

    having said that…the point is still valid even for 2012 too…..even if my specifics were off

    Apologies regardless

    BELOW…is the amended (i will say for 2011…you could put DD in there instead of Furcal for the 2 extra major players, but seeing as Furcal was intended to be in that role i think it is fair for this comparison
    ———–

    2006, and 2011…World Series victors…compared to today:

    c- Yadi………..Yadi………..Yadi
    1- Pujols………Pujols…….Goldy
    2- Miles……….Skip………….Wong
    3- Rolen……….Theriot………Carp
    ss- Ecks……….Freese………DeJong
    lf- Taguchi…….Holliday…….Thomas
    cf- Edmonds…….Rasmus…………Bader
    rf- Encarnacion…Berkman……..Fowler
    (Jrod,Speizio)…(Craig,Furcal)..(Carlson,Edman)

    3 big stars……..3 big stars….1 big star

    4 from system…….5 from system……8 from system
    6 out of system…..5 out of system….2 out of system

    • This reply was modified 5 days, 21 hours ago by Avatarthejager.
    in reply to: Nolan Arenado trade thread #120377
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    Our offense last year was not good…worst leadoff in the game, major swings of poor play for extended periods of time…and we did nothign to fix that…in fact we got worse by Ozuna, JMart, and Randy leaving…heck even the hope for Gyorko returning to normal would maybe help

    Our entire outlook for improving the offense is to HOPE everyone plays better than last year (that’s what we planned last year too remember), and that all the kids are silver bullets

    Sure, all of that could happen, but the WORST thing about the team last year was the offense…the thing that even the FO noted was bad and inconsistent…yet they have done NOTHING but make moves for pitching and send away hitters…

    i am sorry but as much as i was ok with JMart and OZuna leaving, they were productive parts of the offense, and we replaced them with Lane Thomas/ONeill and Ravelo…both options are HIGHLY unproven

    This is a recipe for disaster…a disaster I am not wanting to see nor will i hope for…but i think it is disingenuous for anyone to think that the FO has done anything to fix the NUMBER 1 fault of last year’s team…

    in reply to: Nolan Arenado trade thread #120260
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    i can question whoever i want whenever i want

    we can question all day HOW much the Cardinals should spend…we know they have the money to do it…it is all just about profit margin…and i am sorry but i could care less about whether the owners make an extra 1m because we don’t acquire Arenado… i am interested inthe baseball not the profit made from it

    yes it is a business…but i am not going to sit around and be passive aggressively made to feel guilty that the owners arent making enough money…

    they have the money, they can afford it without hitting the luxury tax, it wont wreck the farm system, and they DO trade young prospects all the time, the most successful years recently were when the farm was not the best,

    the best team was made up of top talent acquired via trades and FA, mixed with a few homegrown talents to keep the costs down a bit…

    2006, and 2011…World Series victors…compared to today:

    c- Yadi………..Yadi………..Yadi
    1- Pujols………Craig……….Goldy
    2- Miles……….DD………….Wong
    3- Rolen……….Furcal………Carp
    ss- Ecks……….Freese………DeJong
    lf- Taguchi…….Holliday…….Thomas
    cf- Edmonds…….Jay…………Bader
    rf- Encarnacion…Beltran……..Fowler
    (Jrod,Speizio)…(Berkman,Carp)..(Carlson,Edman)

    3 big stars……..3 big stars….1 big star

    4 from system…….5 from system……8 from system
    6 out of system…..5 out of system….2 out of system

    We are missing stars….internally or externally…it is obvious we are missing them and we are being told that this is the way we have always done things….which is not true…we succeeded the most when we USED our system to bring in what the farm did not produce….when we had Pujols we needed pitching and secondary hitters…when we didnt have Pujols but the young pitchers helped we brought in veteran hitters…. now…we have good pitching again and no star hitters outside of an old Goldy…and we need a true star

    Goldy is the Matt Holliday to our Pujols….or even Beltran to our Holliday..we just dont have ANYONE resembling a Pujols on the team…and even if we SAY Goldy is the Pujols…we dont have anyone resembling Holliday either

    they tried it with Ozuna…to see if he coudl be either…and he failed at both roles…now we are left with a second fiddle player being sold as a top flight guy…

    ————–

    and thanks Gscott for the update on the Miller option info, i did not see that when looking!

    Still, the base of what i proposed is still valid…structuring the deal creatively with the money for THIS year is entirely a do-able thing…and if we take out the concern for THIS year’s payroll and the specific figures involved the determination of whether it is possible or worth doing is entirely valid

    if the Cardinals raise payroll 10-15% that takes the place of the Miller contract staying around and then some

    I am just not going to

    in reply to: Nolan Arenado trade thread #120251
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    He is still worth it, and with his frustration with the ROx and how warmly and appreciated he would be received by StL, as well as him being pretty much the missing piece to our offense makes for a great pairing.

    They should do this as soon as possible, i bet Arenado with his frustration now would probably be amenable to waiving the opt out too more so than maybe even a month ago.

    I do think there is a real money issue (even though there should not be)

    Though i don’t think Carp and fowler are the only bits of money that could be moved. CMart makes decent money too and should be a consideration.

    I think all the talking points about money are just seeds to sow into the fans that the poor old Cardinals just cant afford big stars like Arenado so they can just not ever invest in them and thus try to convince the fans they dont have to pay up or enter into big name star talk.

    Arenado with a little money off the books for this upcoming year
    for
    Carp + Thompson + ONeill + Knizner + Woodford

    There will definitely be additions to the payroll through extensions or raises going into 2021 but:
    Cecil is gone-7.25m
    Waino probably is gone-5m
    Yadi’s price will come down-20m…down to 15? I have no idea how they will work it out

    Wong and Miller both have outs too, and while I think Wong will be give nan extension…im not so sure we will want to pay Miller 12m to be so so…even if it means eating 2.5m….so save another 9.5m…

    that right there is around ~30m BEFORE raises and extensions of course

    While i think looking at THIS year’s budget is important deals can be made that spreads out the effect of large incoming salaries this year to make it work

    Move Carp in the deal…pay half the salary, but make it NONE this year and all next year…puts us at only roughly +16.5m with Arenado added for 2021…even with paying Carp next year to play for the Rox…and the Rox still save 16.5m THIS year as well and get Carp…

    If you could also get them to pay a little money THIS year (they are already +16.5 in the deal) it might work out even better…let’s say another 5m or 10m? We could even throw in another prospect to make it work.

    10m + 18.5m saved…28.5 this year…+6.5m this year…AND we lose some good prospects and Carp…BUT it should be do-able….

    And I am not so high on any of our prospects outside of Carlson to feel like we should not be trying to get someone like Arenado….

    I love having a nice farm, but the point of the farm is to help the MLB team win…and Arenado will help the big league tema win… no one gives trophies to BEST FARM of 2021… and no one is saying we should trade our farm for some nobody…

    we are saying to trade for arguably the best player in the NL…GG/platinum defense, triple crown threat, and still very young

    If he was on our team (he was his name was Pujols..and PUjols was older) we’d be INSULTED that we did not pay him whatever he wanted (in this case money AND prospects are relevant as Arenado is younger)

    in reply to: Nolan Arenado trade thread #120022
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    If you want elite players you have to either produce them, buy them, or trade for them. Or a combination

    Producing them pretty much tanking to get top 5 picks. Which means suffering and gambling on the fans sticking around

    Buy them costs a lot of money which can hamstring you to buying other players. Which leads to suffering and gambling on importance of one player.

    Trading for them costs a lot of prospects and potential value. Suffering the loss of future talent for elite right now talent.

    The Cardinals won’t produce them with their desire to compete every year.

    Buying them outright seems out of the question as the organization seems very picky about who they go super big on

    Trading for them is our only option truly. Which still requires money.

    However we have produced a farm that is deep on aren’t but not much potential elite talent.

    This deal would not gut out system. Only perhaps one or two of the elite types in the system.

    The Cards farm is fun and has created players that fill holes and just enough higher end talent to allow for upside hole filling and future planning.

    Without elite stars in the lineup our system really doesn’t have the punch to produce an elite team on its own.

    To get the elite player we have to pay money and give up talent. And that is really the only option

    in reply to: Austin Dean acquired #119552
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    Perhaps the Rox wanted to put in a claim for him?

    If he wasnt on the 40man it would be one thing, but to give up a prospect, even a far away one, who is playing well…there has to be a reason

    HE isn’t super young, his minor league years were good not great…either we are needing depth because another move is coming or the Rox (or another team wnt him) and we are here for the flip

    in reply to: Nolan Arenado trade thread #119546
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    Sounds a lot higher than 5-10% to me…. sounds like they are both trying to draw their lines in the sand…and someone is going to have to give up more than what they want

    I think the Cardinals have shown they want Arenado pretty clearly…and the Rox are trying to act like they dont HAVE to move him…which given how much they owe him and his unhappiness is not really accurate

    Id guess the Cards are trying to include Fowler or Carp or to get money off he deal if the Rox are so interested in top prospects…

    Still I think this gets done…Hudson backing out of the Winter caravan thing (says it’s a baby thing), Austin Dean acquired and on 40 man, i think could read as things are moving…

    Hudson + Fowler (1/2 money) + Thompson + Knizner
    for
    Arenado and Wolters (i like Wolters)

    in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2019-2020 #119514
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    i think Carp can run around out there and probably field well, but i dont trust his awkward throwing mechanics to translate well. I think we all watched in pain at how Ozuna threw the ball from LF i think we may not be able to handle Carp out there

    I think Castellenos is a better fit and with the added comp pick, it’s getting tougher and tougher to consider Ozuna except on a 1yr pillow deal for low money.

    I have more confidence in Castellenos being better in the OF than Carp going out there for almost the first time…Castellenos has shown improvement and is 3yrs on the right side of 30

    still…if it meant Arenado at 3b and we had to find a place for him…sure try LF…as i see no playing time without injury elsewhere for him….

    I prefer Arenado to Lindor…at least with the loss of prospects for Arenado we would have a chance of him NOT opting out…which to me would be very high given the size of his contract already… Lindor is two years and we know he will be gone…i doubt he doesnt look at FA and go to the highest bidder at his age in 2 yrs…

    in reply to: Houston Astros Stealing Signs #119390
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    Stros will still be good for a long while…and you dont need a good manager for a team built like this…and they will still get someone good enough to do well with a loaded team and farm

    i think their current team has plenty to be good for the next 2yrs minimum…which is all they are losing from…which means they are losing an upper 20’s pick in 1 and 2 for 2 years… lets not act like these are top 5 picks they are losing

    in reply to: Houston Astros Stealing Signs #119388
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    and if Crane was stand up he would vacate the WS title as a statement that his org wont stand for this…even if i am sure he knew about it too

    in reply to: Houston Astros Stealing Signs #119387
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    can’t hold lower level staff accountable?

    horrible

    so..they are saying if someone sees a problem and doesnt say anything about it, that they are justified in letting it happen?

    where is the accountability? the players and lower staff saw what was going on, participated, took advantage, and said nothing….

    and they get NO fine at all, no punishment at all…

    see that ballboy getting abused or that attendant attacked? dont say anything, and participate is fine, as long as the coaches told you to do it right?

    in reply to: Houston Astros Stealing Signs #119385
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    i do think it is a slap on the wrist…they got what they wanted out of it…and it has set them up for success afterwards

    That NO players are being punished AT ALL is the absolute worst of it…they all participated even through their silence and all gained from it…. add in the ramifications of their improved stats leading to better negotiating leverage for better contracts as well as WS shares etc…

    The league is scared of punishing the players as it would ACTUALLY and TRULY set the team back…

    Hinch and Lunhow will be replaced easily…and Cora doesnt matter to the Astros anymore…in fact it hurts another team and opponent…

    punishing the players woudl remove players from the field…and make the Astros play with a lesser team, which would be fitting as they took advantage of the other teams when they cheated…but that would mean less ticket sales…

    all the Stros will do is take their loaded roster and probably make the playoffs if not the WS again…

    tell me how this hurts them again?

    in reply to: Houston Astros Stealing Signs #119374
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    i didn’t see that about Lunhow it says this:

    from documents

    Doesn’t say no contact, just says he can’t travel or attend games, and conduct business for MLB or his team, lifetime ban only happens if there are future material violations…

    doesnt say he cant talk to people or influence “unofficially”

    • This reply was modified 2 weeks ago by Avatarthejager.
    • This reply was modified 2 weeks ago by Avatarthejager.
    in reply to: Houston Astros Stealing Signs #119366
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    Hinch and Cora…and Lunhow…why would this be damaging?

    all of them got WS win by blatantly cheating, and all their organizations had to do was lose a couple picks and 5mil

    If someone could hand you a WS for that…i think every team would do it in a heartbeat…all it seems this did was embolden people to try all new ways of cheating

    and with no player ramifications, the players have no reason to not participate and try it on their own too

    Hinch and Cora and Lunhow probably deserve a raise for showing how to exploit the system into levying the least amount of penalty for the harshest and easiest way to get wins…

    -steal a password to get a leg up on scouting? coudl help but far too sneaky and hard to turn into actual wins and losses
    -bribe some foreign kids and their families so they sign with you….still sneaky and still has a chance to not work out

    -Cora, Hinch, Lunhow…how about we just cheat during the game and steal signs and tell the hitters what the pitches are ahead of time….that way we can win? blatant…obvious…gets wins…gets a WS…punishment is light, and they dont punish the players for going along with it… …perfect…plus we all get to take a year off…we can recoup the money from our salary being lost by the money we get from raises due to our wins and playoff and WS shares right?

    in reply to: Houston Astros Stealing Signs #119363
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    a 1 and 2 twice is “something”

    but why it mattered to the Cardinals was because we were not the greatest farm system, nor had we ever been picking very high in the draft for years like the Stros… the Cardinals built there farm on those late round picks and when you take away the top couple it hurt a farm that was dependent on all parts of the draft..

    the Stros have prospects for days with all their tanking and trading…losing a couple late round (because they are good now) 1’s and 2’s is nothing

    had they been picking in the top 10 again…sure it might have mattered more… but those picks are pretty garbage compared to what they already have in the system

    in reply to: Houston Astros Stealing Signs #119360
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    they cheated during games to win, the team and coaches and management was complicit

    -$5m? nothing…insultingly low
    -1yr suspensions to GM and manager? so what? it’s not like they won;t have influence on everything from -their homes
    – 2 1+2 draft picks…something but when compared to Cardinals punishment for having a password (picks and international money and a guy going to jail and banning), or ATL GM who bribed foreign player (lifetime ban)…nothing

    how is 2 more picks enough when compared to what they Cardinals got?

    in reply to: Houston Astros Stealing Signs #119357
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    So they WIN the WS the year they are cheating and they do not have to vacate the title?

    MLB just proved they cheated, and yet they still get all the accolades.

    $5m is nothing and meaningless, manager and GM suspended for a year is nothing, Cora wont get anything of consequence either, and ALL of the players involved (they are ALL complicit) seem to be entirely free of any ramifications

    the 1 and 2 picks for TWO years is something but pretty much nothing

    They got away with cheating and got a WS out of it

    That doesnt seem to me to be any kind of message…except…keep on cheating as much as you can we won’t stop you nor take anything away from you for doing it

    absolutely pathetic

    The Cardinals sanctions were almost as bad (or maybe worse) and had ZERO implication for onfield cheating and play

    If i were the Cardinals i would be considering a suit for wrongful punishment in light of the inequality of their punishment in comparison to this punishment

    in reply to: Why not Castellenos? #119191
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    Nicks dwar was -.7 and -.8 the last two years

    JMart was -1.4 and -2.1 I believe

    Castellenos is also 3 yrs younger.

    I don’t think it is fair to say they are the same in the field.

    We played JMart and his horribleness out there in RF and he was by DWar 2-3x worse and it did not sink us. And JMart played far less innings out there.

    Nicks age is worth a 2-3 yr deal of good production with probably -1 dwar per year-ish. And he has gotten better in the field with each year

    Add in the extra comp pick and money for the draft pool and it seems a good bet to me.

    If we could pull off a short deal for Nick

    Then trade for Arenado

    And move Carp to TEX? Or Fowler to LAA?

    I think it would provide us a pretty impressive offensive upgrade and not destroy the farm.

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First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and their minor league system for 20 years