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November 8, 2022 at 7:32 am #206299
I don’t recall anyone pushing back on Anderson or Chafin. In retrospect, those were good calls. We could have used the depth this year.
If recent results matter, then what do you do with Quintana’s steady decline from 2016 on? Or does one good year trump everything else? Steamer has Q at a 3.99 ERA next year, which seems about right. Does that improve our upside?
November 8, 2022 at 9:46 am #206306The #BlueJays are expected to trade a catcher this offseason, according to multiple rival execs I’ve spoken with at the GM Meetings. The Jays have an abundance of talent at the position: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. @MLBNetwork @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 8, 2022
November 8, 2022 at 10:07 am #206308Danny Jansen makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals.
November 8, 2022 at 10:12 am #206309I like guys who show up for work and make their effective starts.
Thanks for saying that jj. I agree that being on the field should count for something. All of this “he is great when healthy” is only pertinent when the player is healthy.
Even though I have been pushing for us to get an ace there is another way to have a very good pitching staff with only number 3 and 4 type starters and that is to have a lockdown bullpen. A bullpen that can shorten the game to 5 innings because innings 6-9 are taken care of. The question is how to build a bullpen like that? It is obviously difficult because the Cardinals have proven over the years that you can spend big on bullpen pieces with little to show for it (Holland, Cecil, Miller, etc..).
The performance of bullpen pitchers is so volatile. I have come to the conclusion that building a good pen is 50% planning and 50% luck.
November 8, 2022 at 10:40 am #206310Yep, I don’t know exactly why, but BP’s always seem to be dicey propositions that present more questions than a protracted interrogation. I genuinely think you could compose a BP with names like Sutter, Fingers and Rivera and still experience stretches of a season in which it seemed you couldn’t record an out.
November 8, 2022 at 10:45 am #206311GS….Spotrac has us at ~103 before Waino defer. They are “projecting” ~148 before Waino and WITH arb
There is no guarantee we don’t trade from arb or pre-arb eligible pool (Hudson, maybe ONeill or even Jack)…i bring it up as to why i roughly laid out financials
103 – 10 (waino) = 93 (why not include that? that seems the point of the deferment is to allow for more potential spending)
add 44 (my vague ideas) (which also included trading Hudson…arb eligible) = 137
your 180 – 137 = 43 for arbitration and pre-arb
spotrac has ~38 and ~6 for arb and pre-arb = 44 (including Hudson who I had included in trade)181 total
seems a pretty do-able estimation and right at the 180 you were considering
My point is never the specifics of the money or even the players (though they are who i lean towards today)…the pint is that we can add from outside pretty significantly as the payroll has some room
November 8, 2022 at 10:53 am #206312The way Quintana plaeyd a the end of the year even in playoffs was exceptional…didn’t look like a guy that was getting lucky. Im not saying a 5 yr deal, but i’d go 3 with him i think
also the projections last year were off by about 2 on the ERA and they went right back to that with that 3.99..that seems conservative as they always are..
will he be sub 3 again this year? I doubt it,m but let’s also not discount that he spent half the year pitching for a team that was not good and didnt help his stats…so his numbers this year may be better than they look…maybe not a full year of 2nd half with a good team like StL but not as bad as having to pitch half a season for PITT
Monty slowed down…Quintana got better as the year went on, with the pressure and the focus…when he was young adn in Sale’s shadow he did well and was putting up solid numbers…went to Anaheim and they wanted the big numbers without the shadow for him…Pitt he just wanted to prove he wasnt as bad as Angels numbers….and he did…then put him on a Cardinals team with so many distractions and he found his groove and spot…
i think he is prime for a couple good years with us…and i would like to think he knows at this point the “type” of team he wants to go to. And i think that StL is that type…will we get a huge discount…no…but i think our offers will get a bit more consideration, even if a little lower
November 8, 2022 at 11:10 am #206313Trade Proposal:
– Twins: Paul DeJong, Dakota Hudson
– Cardinals: Max KeplerKepler and DeJong have oddly similar profiles, except one is a left-handed outfielder and the other is right-handed SS. Both rate very well on defense at their positions and have significant offensive limitations. Both appear to struggle due to being pull-happy.
Minnesota is losing Correa, which opens a hole for them at SS and they have plenty of outfielders to fill in for Kepler. Throwing Hudson in could help them fill in for their rotation, as well. As they are losing several starting arms. Kepler is due $8.5 million this year with a $10 million option or $1 million buyout next year.
November 8, 2022 at 11:33 am #206316103 – 10 (waino) = 93 (why not include that? that seems the point of the deferment is to allow for more potential spending)
Jager, I had this discussion with stl25 a few days ago. For some reason all of the major payroll websites (Cot’s, Spotrac, Roster Resource) all list the full value of the contract in the current year even if some is deferred. I am not 100% sure why that is but that is the way they do it, and since those guys do this for a living, I am going to assume they are doing it correctly.
November 8, 2022 at 12:02 pm #206318Why if the money is deferred is it counted ahead of time? If I recall correctly, those sites also include deferred comp in the years it is paid. If so, it makes no sense to count it twice. I would suggest looking at that more closely before accepting it as gospel. I doubt the Cards look at it this way.
November 8, 2022 at 12:47 pm #206319You could probably ask them how they look at it and hear what they have to say. I’m reasonably sure they’d tell you something or other…
November 8, 2022 at 2:29 pm #206320Why if the money is deferred is it counted ahead of time? If I recall correctly, those sites also include deferred comp in the years it is paid. If so, it makes no sense to count it twice. I would suggest looking at that more closely before accepting it as gospel. I doubt the Cards look at it this way.
Brian, to my knowledge those sites do not list deferred comp in the year it is paid. For example, I have never seen Bobby Bonilla’s deferred money listed on Cot’s annual payroll numbers for the Mets.
November 8, 2022 at 4:00 pm #206325Maybe they are required to earmark the deferred money now and put it into some kind of holding fund.
Otherwise, that kind of accounting will cause inaccurate assumptions.
November 8, 2022 at 4:01 pm #206326Some contract projections on potential #STLCards targets from The Athletic:
Turner – 8/296M
Correa – 8/260M
Bogaerts – 7/175M
Swanson – 7/168M
Contreras – 4/74M
Benintendi – 3/42Mhttps://t.co/IFkrP9Snex— Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) November 8, 2022
November 8, 2022 at 4:05 pm #206327I went to the Mets page on Spotrac. Bonilla (and Saberhagen) are in fact listed as deferred. However, this description is included.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-mets/payroll/
“Salaries for players who had salaries deferred to the current year. We are NOT counting these against the active payroll.”
So the deferred money is apparently accounted for up front only and is not double counted. In the case of Wainwright, all of his money for his 2023 contract counts against the 2023 team payroll and none in future year. At least that is how Spotrac handles it.
Again, we don’t know if that is how the teams consider it, though. I wouldn’t think so, or there would be no reason to defer the money in the first place.
November 8, 2022 at 4:31 pm #206328I’ve always viewed it as two sets of books.
It’s possible mlb requires deferred money counted now, otherwise teams would be playing games with the CB Tax totals to avoid millions in overage penalties.
And then there’s per club accounting, where it’s “but we know those dollar are due at a later date”. You could also throw incentives paid and options bought out, in this club accounting that never seem to get accounted for. Club business.
November 8, 2022 at 4:35 pm #206329Brian wrote:
Maybe they are required to earmark the deferred money now and put it into some kind of holding fund.
Yes, I think this is the case.
JJ wrote:
I’ve always viewed it as two sets of books.
It’s possible mlb requires deferred money counted now, otherwise teams would be playing games with the CB Tax totals to avoid millions in overage penalties.
And then there’s per club accounting, where it’s “but we know those dollar are due at a later date”. You could also throw incentives paid and options bought out, in this club accounting that never seem to get accounted for. Club business.
I agree.
November 8, 2022 at 4:42 pm #206330This is the Mets page on Cot’s. No Bonilla.
November 9, 2022 at 4:54 am #206343In the past Conforto has been a target of many posters on this site. With him missing all of 2022, I would think he might be looking for 1 year deal to prove himself. Maybe a Dickerson type contract with incentives? And he is still only 29.
November 9, 2022 at 5:14 am #206344Assuming 2 additions this lineup looks pretty good. Although I would to see Herrera given a chance.
Edman SS
Donovan 2B
Goldschmidt 1B
Arenado 3B
Conforto RF
O’Neill LF
Gorman/Yepez DH
Carlson CF
Jansen/Murphy CNovember 9, 2022 at 6:56 am #206350What’s the likelihood of a trade for Lance Lynn? Perhaps Matz or Dejong could offset some salary. Maybe include Mcgreevy, or Paniaugua.
November 9, 2022 at 7:06 am #206351In the past Conforto has been a target of many posters on this site. With him missing all of 2022, I would think he might be looking for 1 year deal to prove himself. Maybe a Dickerson type contract with incentives? And he is still only 29.
I’d like Conforto. But I saw someone mention the Reds as a possible landing spot, and aside from them not contending, it would make a lot of sense. He could launch 30 homers in that band box pretty easily with a nearly guaranteed starting position.
November 9, 2022 at 7:33 am #206355I like the Jansen & Conforto as additions.
November 9, 2022 at 9:54 am #206370Kyl…i like that Dejong Hudson trade for Kepler…though i actually think we’d have to add in another prospect…nothign crazy but something decent
but i just dont see anyone taking DeJong without a huge prospect add-on and the FO rarely admits their failure. DeJong will be on the bench in ST
If i were him or the FO I would have sent him to AFL (kinda like ONeill did this year) and then to a winter league. The best he looked this year was briefly after he had been playing a lot (and even when he came to our attention in the first place was after an AFL successful stint)
November 9, 2022 at 10:19 am #206371I was thinking about the Orioles and Hudson
Orioles might be a good change of scenery for him
Hudson + Bedell + Walsh
for
Santander + Mateosolid power hitting OFer and speedy util/SS
Baseball trade values has this as fair…but i feel like the O’s may want a higher profile prospect than Walsh and Bedell… maybe Mejia? He would be an overpay on that site, but it might get the deal done
-Santander’s 33 HRs may be high for him, but 25 is still plenty
-Mateo with the new pickoff and base size rules…may be a worth his weight in goldthen either pay Contreras or trade big for Murphy
let’s say trade for Murphy for fun
-Burleson + Yepez + Libertore + Baez – Woodfordthen go big on an Ace with that money…maybe big Rodon deal?
Edman Goldy Arenado Santander Murphy Gorman (DH) ONeill Carlson Donovan
Mateo Knizner Noot DeJong
Rodon Mik Jack Monty Waino
Hels Gall Hicks Stratton ZachT Jojo Matz Pall VanderH Reyes Packy etc.not too bad
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