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CJ, I think you have O’Neills career br/WAR600 incorrect. Instead of your 5.2/600, I have O’Neill at 4.3/600, more in line with his Fangraphs career/600
I think it’s O’Neill at 1370 career PA’s that led to the difference.
When you said lopsided I decided to double check. Not notpicking, just striving for accuracy.
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This recent civil outfield discussion is exactly what I love about forums.25 would likely trade Noot, who may be overachieving, and cash in on his sell high value.
CJ would likely trade O’Neills lesser club control, since Noots early career numbers are just behind O’Neills.
GS would likely trade Carlson who may never live up to his prospect ranking.
I’d prefer we keep and play who we are, with Walker on the way, and possibly upgrade CF depth.
It’s like cross checking your own opinion with opinions you value.
Thanks, jj. For O’Neill’s WAR/600, I was only looking at the last two seasons (2021 and 2022), not his career numbers. This was intentional as it gives O’Neill a “better” sample, even if it includes this year’s clunker.
And about the ceiling…
I just ran some of these numbers out of curiosity. All from Fangraphs. Here is the half-season and 1+ month peak performance that O’Neill and Nootbaar have each hit so far. (I admit, it doesn’t mean that it is more or less replicable for either of them. And I would much rather rely on x stats than babip for an educated guess there.)
“Half-Season Peak”*
O’Neill | 2021 2nd Half | Age 26 | 285 PA | .296/.368/.573 | .941 OPS | 152 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR
Nootbaar | 2022 July-EOS | Age 24 | 270 PA | .253/.374/.507 | .881 OPS | 149 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR
*(I included all of Nootbaar’s July in part to even out the play appearances and in part because it brings the overall numbers closer as his breakout essentially started the week before the all-star game.)“1-month+ Peak”*
O’Neill | 2021 Sept/Oct | Age 26 | 130 PA | .328/.377/.731 | 1.108 OPS | 190 wRC+ | 2.2 WAR
Nootbaar | 2022 Jul/Aug | Age 24 | 171 PA ! .294/471/.574 | .995 OPS | 179 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR
*(Nootbaar’s July and August were equally good, so I combined both so the PA’s are a little closer, or rather, favor Nootbaar this time.)By wRC+ they are both close to identical, indeed with O’Neill topping Nootbaar slightly. Of course O’Neill has shown more power, but Nootbaar’s on-base ability also might be of a unicorn variety. Thus the similarities I see between Nootbaar and good Matt Carpenter.
Interestingly, despite some of the overall similarities between these samples, O’Neill’s WAR ranking among hitters for the time periods selected were higher than Nootbaar’s. O’Neill’s 2021 second half ranked #6 and his 2021 Sept/Oct ranked #2. Nootbaar’s 2022 July-EOS ranked #24 and his 2022 Jul/Aug ranked #13. The “MVP-Caliber” moniker definitely goes to O’Neill in this case.
It can be argued that they have to-date displayed roughly the same ceiling when it comes to actual production. Is it more or less likely for either of them to reach it again? I don’t know. Given how wild O’Neill’s power numbers were and how high his K’s (over 30% in both samples), there’s space for some doubt there. But it helps that he more or less sustained a pace just below this when taking the full 2021 season into account. To the babip point, O’Neill’s was always higher (.389 half season and .388 1-month) than Nootbaar (.265 half-season and .308 1-month). For Nootbaar, I’m not sure what his numbers are against the shift vs. no shift, but if the shift ban opens up the right side of the infield a little more for him, maybe there is even a little space for him to grow or a higher chance of him re-reaching this to-date production ceiling.
Regardless, it is a good “problem” to have, assuming the Cardinals would even be looking to move one of them.
Also, it seems that Brandon Allen was the hitting coach in Springfield during Carlson’s breakout, so perhaps there is some chance that he can “unlock” Carlson again.
I guess it first occured to me around the end of last June, but I couldn’t help but notice that Carlson looked more than a little underweight as I watched him standing in the box and taking his rips during Redbird games on TV last season. He genuinely looked a bit weakly to me. Maybe the key to getting him unlocked would be a plain and easy solution of a diet consisting of more pan fried pork chops, rice and gravy, seasoned collard greens with biscuits and jelly, and maybe even a little pot likkor left over from simmering the greens? You could look it up. That potlikker is really, really good for a person. It certainly couldn’t hurt to try. Just keep him out of the weight room and I think a proper diet along with baseball related exercise will increase his chances to not only reach his ceiling, but ascend far above it. He probably just needs to marry a nice girl that knows how to cook.
CJ,
“Regardless, it’s a good problem to have, …”And that’s the camp I’m in. I’m not anxious to trade from our position player strength. In fact, I wouldn’t mind picking up a CF vet, on a 4th OF salary, to help backfill the trade of Bader.
In this thread I saw Heyward mentioned. As a 4th OF he would compliment our CF D.
I expect the TBR to decline their club option on Kiermaier. He would also add CF depth at a high D level.
If Walker, O’Neill and Noot are all best suited on the corners, an upgrade of De Luzio could be a back burner discussion.
Standing pat with the position group, how would we then find the ability to upgrade the rotation?
There are two gimmes this off-season for rotation upgrades, IMO. Rodon and Verlander. I suspect both will be priced out of our shopping range. DeGrom also would upgrade the staff, if healthy. Besides that, it’s more of the #3/4 types we already have. Trading excess position talent for a front line starter (Bieber, maybe Lopez) seems to make the most sense as we have a couple of likely starting players coming in Walker and Winn next year or by 2024 at the latest.
I still see the best looking trade chips as Burleson, Donovan, Nootbaar, Edman, Gorman. We’ll throw Yepez, Carlson and O’Neill in for argument sake.
If I had to rank them by pure future value (based on team control and value per year), I’d say (most to least) Gorman, Edman, Nootbaar, Carlson, Donovan, O’Neill, Burleson, Yepez
If I was going on 2023 value, I’d say Edman, O’Neill, Carlson, Gorman, Nootbaar, Donovan, Burleson, Yepez
What’s that mean for trade value? Teams are going to want to balance long term production with upside. Edman isn’t going anywhere until or unless Winn is ready to take over SS. Carlson’s play in CF this year makes him fairly indispensable out there too. I think Gorman and his lefty power are too enticing for the Cards to give up yet as well.
My reasoning for moving Noot over the others? Yepez is a low value guy who is probably a good enough hitter that he can fill a DH/PH spot for cheap for the next three years. I don’t think he’s moving the needle in a trade for what we need. Burleson is Nootbaar, but a year early. He’s about half the value of Noot in a trade, but could be a secondary piece. Donovan is another secondary piece. If we had Winn set to go, I think Donovan makes Edman expendable. He’d be my preference to trafe, but that would be a smart org move. They’ll move on from him too late.
Finally, O’Neills injury history and lack of control could make him the main piece in a #3/4 starter deal. That’s simply not our need. Noot simply has more value in a swap. I also lean that way because I see Walker in RF as an upgrade over Noot, maybe even from Day 1. Noot and O’Neill both have similar floors over a 162 game slate, but O’Neill simply has that extra gear with the great 2021. That’s a bet I simply have to make when it comes to winning 95+ games and making a run in October. Noot is safe, smart…gives us assurance of winning the B division again. O’Neill has team carrying ability over weeks and months. The health is always a risk, though.
For what it’s worth, I’m not interested in trading these guys guys to trade. I’m using them to get a front line starter, which we are desperate for right now. Otherwise, let’s just run it back, win 90 and the Central, bank 3.3 million fans and hope and pray next off-season again.
It settles my sense of well being and harmony with the world to know that I had forgotten all about Jason Heyward and how he looked taking his hacks in the batter’s box as opposed to how he manned up in RF. Then, I made the mistake of perusing this thread…
A couple of years ago, I was hopeful on O’Neill. He had a good 2021 then an injury riddled 2022 with a return to his pre-2021 performance. He will be 28 in June and I am wondering if he will never reach his potential. If he could bring us an ace pitcher, I am glad to let him go. Walker may be ready now. He may need a couple of months or more. I think we have enough OFs to get by until then.
I also have concerns whether Burleson is ready but his 2021 numbers at Memphis points to him be ready. If he is, he could provide the same production as O’Neill without as many home runs.
I hope Brian has an eyewitness report on Walker’s CF defense.
Edwin Diaz resigns with the Mets. Guess they wanted to keep him off the market. 5 years, $102M.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34966621/sources-edwin-diaz-mets-agree-5-year-102-million-deal
25, subtracting from our lineup to upgrade the pitching is just shuffling deck chairs. Overall, we don’t improve.
What’s available 40mil? Non-tender Stratton, Reyes, Hudson and Flaherty for another 14mil.
If this FO can’t fix the pitching with 50mil+ ……. then that’s their fault.
25, subtracting from our lineup to upgrade the pitching is just shuffling deck chairs. Overall, we don’t improve.
Walker replacing Nootbaar improves the lineup, IMO. So I don’t see it as a shuffling of the deck chairs.
What’s available 40mil? Non-tender Stratton, Reyes, Hudson and Flaherty for another 14mil.
If this FO can’t fix the pitching with 50mil+ ……. then that’s their fault.
I’m suggesting that there isn’t the upgrade they seek on the market. A trade looks like a better route.
25, I know you want the roster to improve as badly as all of us, but it takes at least 4 outfielders every season, especially with often injured O’Neill as a roster member. Walker makes us a better outfield eventually, in theory, without subtracting Noot from the lineup.
Today our 4th outfielder is Burleson, Yepez or De Luzio. But, with Noot traded, and O’Neill IL, look where we are. The D takes a major hit and we’re expecting a lot from Walker and one of three 4th outfielders above. This could happen in May. Is Carlson the anchor we could depend on?
I don’t see the depth to trade an outfielder from the everyday lineup. I could see including one of the 4th outfielders in a package.
Let me just add, I think the FO will use the Gorman strategy with Walker. Walker will need a place to start before they bring him up.
If we keep our outfield intact, that could be opening day or any month after, depending on the outfielders health / availability.
I still stick with my original thoughts, just Wainwright is back in the mix
-Nootbaar, McGreevy, Hence for Sean Murphy
-DeJong, O’Neill, Cabrera for Lucas Giolito and A.J. Pollock
-Liberatore, Gorman, Herrera for Mike Trout
-Hudson for a minor leaguer or 2
-Sign Matt Moore or Matt Strahm1. Donovan 2B (L)
2. Trout CF (R)
3. Goldschmidt 1B (R)
4. Arenado 3B (R)
5. Yepez DH (R)
6. Murphy C (R)
7. Carlson RF (S)
8. Burleson/Pollock LF (L/R)
9. Edman SS (S)???- IF, ??? – Utility, Pollock/Burleson (R/L), Knizner (R)
Flaherty, Montgomery (L), Mikolas, Giolito, Wainwright
Matz (L), Pallante, Thompson (L), Stratton, Hicks, Moore/Strahm (L), Gallegos, Helsley
I really don’t see it happening or them putting Matz in the pen, but injuries do happen.
But with Walker coming on strong Pollock has 1 year and $13 million remaining, had a down year but crushed LHP. Could be a good platoon with Burleson. Opens the door for Walker easily in 2024. If Carlson continues to struggle then RF could be Walker’s sooner, or LF and Burlson out, but there are options. I really like the idea of Murphy at C, I know it’s going to take a haul to get him though. And I’ve never been a believer in O’Neill and it’s they need to just move on and get something while they can.It settles my sense of well being and harmony with the world to know that I had forgotten all about Jason Heyward and how he looked taking his hacks in the batter’s box as opposed to how he manned up in RF. Then, I made the mistake of perusing this thread…
Heyward was actually pretty good with the bat for the Cardinals in 2015. So good that the Cardinals offered him the same $180M contract the Cubs did. Fortunately he chose the Cubs. Unfortunately we got saddled with Fowler for five years.
Make no mistake the Cubs will be paying Heyward’s salary this year after they release him. If the Cardinals picked him up for a measly $720k to be a backup OF it wouldn’t be the end of the world.
Was looking at Spotrac a little
So right now before arb or any moves (other than Waino) we sit at about 106 (remove 10m of Waino deferred) so about 96, and with remarks about spending going up…i think there is a legitimate chance we add several pieces
-Contreras 4yrs 70m (from VivaElBirdos article write up)
-Quint 3yr 30m (no info on Spotrac for market value, but 10m per too low?)
-Haniger 3yrs 45m (spotrac says about 15m value)
-Mateo trade…arb1 estimate 1.5-ish…not sure what to send but maybe Dakota Hudsonthat adds (before other arbs): 44mil putting us around 140mil
arbs will raise it up, but seems workable, even if you raise Quint and Contreras up a bit it still comes in workableWe could go big on Turner or Xander, but that just doesnt seem like the pissing match Moz likes…an early good offer to Contreras might work while other teams line up trade offers to TOR and OAK..and try to game a Vazquez deal…
Mik, Quint, Monty, Jack, Waino…Matz,Libertore,Pallante
– solid enough, decent depthEdman/Mateo-SS,Haniger-RF,Goldy-1,Nado-3,Contreras-C,ONeill-LF,Dylan-CF,Yepez/Gorman-DH,Edman/Mateo-2b
– Solid lineup
– bench of Knizner, Donny, Noot, Yepez works, and with versatility should be a boon to restWas looking at Spotrac a little
So right now before arb or any moves (other than Waino) we sit at about 106 (remove 10m of Waino deferred) so about 96, and with remarks about spending going up…i think there is a legitimate chance we add several pieces
-Contreras 4yrs 70m (from VivaElBirdos article write up)
-Quint 3yr 30m (no info on Spotrac for market value, but 10m per too low?)
-Haniger 3yrs 45m (spotrac says about 15m value)
-Mateo trade…arb1 estimate 1.5-ish…not sure what to send but maybe Dakota Hudsonthat adds (before other arbs): 44mil putting us around 140mil
arbs will raise it up, but seems workable, even if you raise Quint and Contreras up a bit it still comes in workableWe could go big on Turner or Xander, but that just doesnt seem like the pissing match Moz likes…an early good offer to Contreras might work while other teams line up trade offers to TOR and OAK..and try to game a Vazquez deal…
Mik, Quint, Monty, Jack, Waino…Matz,Libertore,Pallante
– solid enough, decent depthEdman/Mateo-SS,Haniger-RF,Goldy-1,Nado-3,Contreras-C,ONeill-LF,Dylan-CF,Yepez/Gorman-DH,Edman/Mateo-2b
– Solid lineup
– bench of Knizner, Donny, Noot, Yepez works, and with versatility should be a boon to restCot’s has us at $149M right now. They include arb estimates, league minimum salaries, and the full Waino salary. If we added your $44M that would put us at $193M. The Cardinals said they were going to raise payroll but they didn’t say how much. I am not expecting anything over $180M but we shall see.
Thanks for $ numbers GS.
149mil minus the 14mil of my non-tenders, sets the budget at 135mil. Using your 180mil estimate leaves 45mil to spend or 55mil without Wainwrights deferrals counted.
Sign Chris Basset on a 3yr
Q on a 2yr
Chafin on a 2yr
I’ll wait for the MLBTR estimates on contracts.Replaces Flaherty, Hudson and Stratton.
Let me just add, I think the FO will use the Gorman strategy with Walker. Walker will need a place to start before they bring him up.
If we keep our outfield intact, that could be opening day or any month after, depending on the outfielders health / availability.
I think there are a lot of reasons to think that Walker will be up earlier than you think, and I don’t know that it’ll be injury. The ROY incentive looms large and the Cards really love those draft picks, so I could see them going all in on Walker for it. Another is that I think Walker’s floor for 2023 looks something like Nootbaar’s 2022. I know that sounds like high praise, but this kid is special.
I’m just not sold on Nootbaar like others. The BABIP is low, yes…but he’s never been a high average hitter outside of his 2021 at Memphis. I think he settles in as a 100-110 wRC+ guy with above average corner defense. That’s useful…but if you get someone thinking he’s worth more than that, I think he could be a part of bringing us a real #1.
Thanks for $ numbers GS.
149mil minus the 14mil of my non-tenders, sets the budget at 135mil. Using your 180mil estimate leaves 45mil to spend or 55mil without Wainwrights deferrals counted.
Sign Chris Basset on a 3yr
Q on a 2yr
Chafin on a 2yr
I’ll wait for the MLBTR estimates on contracts.Replaces Flaherty, Hudson and Stratton.
So who’s leaving the rotation to accommodate Bassitt and Quintana? We’d have Waino, Mikolas, Monty, Matz, Bassitt and Quintana. I’m not sold on either of those two guys as an upgrade (I’d certainly take Flaherty at his salary over either), and I don’t think you get any extra playoff ceiling by adding them. But it would certainly raise our payroll.
Shohei Ohtani will NOT be traded this offseason, per Angels GM Perry Minasian.
— Sam Blum (@SamBlum3) November 7, 2022
The pushback was expected. We’re not going to do a statistical challenge on Flaherty/Hudson vs Bassett/Q. I won’t let you take that poor position.
The pushback was expected. We’re not going to do a statistical challenge on Flaherty/Hudson vs Bassett/Q. I won’t let you take that poor position.
Here’s the main statistic I need on Bassitt and Quintana…34, both of them. Bassitt was just above average at age 33 (113 ERA+), so how is he going to hold up on a three year deal? Quintana just had a career year, which he will not repeat.
I don’t think Flaherty and Hudson are going to be all that great, even. They’re simply going to be a ton cheaper and won’t handcuff us for 2024 and 2025. If we aren’t going for a real upgrade, then why bother? The Cards are going to win the Central either way, and at least Flaherty has upside you can dream on. When it doesn’t happen, then you sign Nola or make a trade after 2023.
That’s why I’d prefer the trade. It’s almost assuredly what Mo wants, too.
I like guys who show up for work and make their effective starts. I have eliminated DeGrom, Verlander, Kershaw and Rodon from consideration. Just don’t think STL will shop there.
I received similar pushback on all-star Tyler Anderson last offseason, as my target (along with Chafin). For me its about pitches in their arsenal and recent production. I’ll stick with Bassitt and Q, with Matz and Chafin as the primary pen lefties.
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