[Bob Reed]

I think Davenport’s projection model continues to punish Jose Martinez for his uneven and quite lengthy minor league track record. I agree entirely that it is too conservative, given what Martinez has done in MLB over the past two years.

2017 .309 with an .897 OPS
2018 .305 with an .821
Davenport 2019 50th percentile .266 with a .749 OPS

On the other hand, it’s one of the things I do like about Davenport’s model in general — it does clearly give a LOT of weight to minor league performance when forecasting MLB hitters. Much more so than Steamer, ZiPS, and other publicly available projection systems.

But in this case it bites Jose in the backside. Not unlike the fairly bleak 2019 Max Muncy forecast.

Max Muncy 2018 MLB actual line: .263/.391/.582
Davenport 2019 50th percentile .244/.356/.450

Just for kicks, here are some other notables, with their Davenport 2019 50th percentiles per 600 PA’s. (Bearing in mind of course that some will get many fewer trips to the plate than that.)

Paul Goldschmidt 5.0 WAR
Matt Carpenter 4.2
Kolten Wong 4.2
Tommy Pham 4.2
Yadi Molina 3.8
Jedd Gyorko 3.6
Paul DeJong 3.0
Luke Voit 2.4

Davenport’s system doesn’t like DeJong’s glovework nearly as much as, well, everybody else. But still, nothing shabby about a 3-win player. It just looks a little weak compared to the rest of the lineup.

Looking back, in late July when Mo wanted to get Harry Bader back into the lineup after Shildt removed him for Dexter Fowler, maybe instead of trading Tommy Pham it would have been better for Mo to simply release Dexter, and ever-so-subtly recommended to Mr. Shildt to start Ozuna, Bader, and Pham. But maybe that’s just me.

[Bob Reed]

“I really hope they don’t bump O’Neill down to AAA to carry Martinez and Gyorko though.”

Presented without comment, the 2019 Clay Davenport 50th percentile projections for some Cardinal outfielders, on a per 600 plate appearance basis.

Marcell Ozuna 3.7 WAR
Tyler O’Neill 3.6
Harrison Bader 2.9
Dexter Fowler 1.9
Justin Williams 1.5
Randy Arozarena 1.3
Jose Martinez 0.8
Lane Thomas 0.7
Jose Adolis Garcia 0.0

[Bob Reed]

…and I could have but did not mention three other variables that favor the pitching troika over Bryce Harper.

1) Cards almost surely don’t have to offer opt-outs to the pitchers

2) No loss of draft pick/budget with hurlers

3) No commitment beyond the five years, with the twirlers

The third point might be the most important, as I just glanced at Harper’s Baseball-Reference page and noticed that his “most similar player by age” for each of the past three seasons has been Andruw Jones — who aged exceptionally poorly after age 30. Nearly 60 WAR in his 20’s and fewer than 5 WAR in his 30’s. Sure, it likely means nothing. But it doesn’t help.

[Bob Reed]

“Bob, for me, it is a simple equation. Harper is worth between 4.5 and 5 wins.”

I value Harper lower than this, based on Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. The only way I can see to possibly value him as a 4.5 to 5 WAR player is to look at his collective last 4 seasons only. Not the last 3 or 5 or 6 or 2. Just 4 and only 4. (Over the last 3 seasons for example, he’s averaged a mere 2.5 at B-Ref and 3.8 at Fangraphs.)

For his seven year career, Harper has averaged 3.9 WAR at B-Ref and 4.4 per Fangraphs. If we remove his outlying worst and best season at each website, he’s averaged just 3.3 WAR at B-Ref and 4.0 at F-G. This does not look like a generational, transformational player to me. At best, he’s apparently a 4.4 WAR guy, and at worst a 3.3 talent. Again, that’s not ME talking. That’s the two most respected player valuation websites.

“Harper is a moot point. I already said many times why I prefer to sign Harper but I am a minority of one.”

No need to repeat your arguments for my sake. I just wanted to frame the discussion in a very specific either/or manner, to clarify the waters a bit. I’d take Harper in a vacuum, too. In fact I’d happily sign the guy for $22M a year, at up to 12 years. But he’s not signing for that.

“If the Cardinals really want to get better and the Front Office has intimated that they do then let’s do both.“

I cannot argue against accruing talent. But the point of the exercise was to choose, because every team, even the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs with their truly massive revenues, has to make choices. As the philosopher observed: you can’t have everything, where would you put it?

But okay, how about another Harperthetical. Would you rather invest $350M for 10 years of Bryce right now…or invest $500M for 10 years of Mike Trout, starting two years from now? Me, I prefer the latter, and it’s not remotely close.

Thanks so much for ALL of the responses, guys!

[Bob Reed]

Oh, okay. Thanks much everyone, for all the clarifications/feedback.

My only concern remains the same as 24 hours ago. I hope Mike Shildt understands that he should not ever again start Yadi for 27 games in a row — much less during the summer dog days.

Yadi career OPS splits by month:
April through July, all between .721 and .728
August .797
Sept./Oct. .742

Yadi 2018 splits
April through July, all between .746 and .854
August .664
Sept. .672

Has Shildt publicly admitted yet that he screwed up last year with the 27-in-a-row? It wouldn’t be much of an admission, since everyone already knows it. (Of course the Post-Dispatch won’t ever mention it, since criticizing Shildt in any manner could be construed somehow as vaguely indirectly wordlessly praising Matheny, and we certainly can’t have that.) I’d like to see Shildt show some understanding of the Yadi situation.

[Bob Reed]

Just a quick question for the Bryce Harper advocates.

Would you rather the Cards invest $175M on the next 5 years of Bryce Harper…

OR invest the same $175M on:

2 years of Andrew Miller ($25M) plus 5 years of Miles Mikolas ($85M) plus 5 years of Yusei Kikuchi ($65M)?

Based on the Cards’ current talent in the majors and minors in terms of pitchers and outfielders, I would personally much rather load up on the arms if given the choice.

[Bob Reed]

“That’s hilarious. Some people on here are about to go into fits of apoplexy, I’m guessing.”

I enjoy getting upset, about baseball. But what should I be upset about?

The fact that Pena is back? Or that Yadi hasn’t adhered strictly enough to recuperation protocols? Or that Yadi might want to return after the 2020 season? None of these surprise or upset me very much, if at all.

Or is it something else? I apologize for my obtuseness.

[Bob Reed]

I would have left Carlson in Peoria for more than a couple of weeks this year…but other than that, I’d say the Redbirds have handled him okay.

I do agree with Pads, in that I’d like to see Dylan get plenty of high minors seasoning. (Heaven knows the club has outfielders aplenty in AAA and the majors right now.) We shouldn’t look down our noses at what DC managed to do as a teenager in the Florida State League, however. His BB/K was distinctly better than Ryan Braun had at age 22 in the FSL, and his isolated power topped both Bagwell and Big Frank Thomas in the same league when they were each 21. Here are some details:

Dylan Carlson at 19 in the FSL, .136 isolated slugging overall and .158 in the 2nd half.
Elehuris Montero at 19, .122 ISO.
Frank Thomas at 21, also .122
Bagwell at 21, .109 ISO.
Ryan Braun at 22, 23/54 BB/K
Matt Carpenter at 23 batted .219/.286/.342 with a mediocre 10/24 BB/K

I don’t mean to imply that Montero or Carlson will be stars — best bet, they’ll be solid regulars instead. Just wanted to illustrate with historical context what you guys already knew: it can be very hard for anyone to hit baseballs in the Florida State League.

[Bob Reed]

Carlos became an MLB starting pitcher in 2015.

Here’s a list of pitchers who’ve thrown more innings, with a lower ERA than Carlos, since 2015:

Kershaw, Scherzer, DeGrom, Kluber, Sale, Greinke, Verlander, Arrieta, and somehow Kyle Hendricks. So that’s the entire list of pitchers who’ve definitely been better than Carlos since he became a starter 4 years ago. Except for the sore thumb inclusion of Hendricks, it’s nothing but stars and superstars. Mostly superstars.

I don’t blame anyone for hating the dumb hair color. But let’s not equate Carlos’ hair or Yadi’s neck tattoos or Wainwright’s dugout dancing with a lack of commitment to craft. Could Carlos be better? Almost certainly. Is he terrific as is? Also almost certainly.

We are lucky to have him.

[Bob Reed]

Please don’t take this as a criticism, CC. But why do you believe that the Brewers aren’t already contenders?

Not only did they of course win the Central in 2018, they also led the N.L. in victories, didn’t lose much to free agency, and could get Jimmy Nelson back in 2019. (I know, it’s probably just that you and I differ somewhat in our use of the word “contender.” I suspect you’re more strict than I.)

At any rate, here are the very latest World Series favorites at Sportsbetting.ag

Dodgers… 6-1
Red Sox… 7-1
Astros… 7-1
Yankees… 7-1
Cards… 12-1
cubs… 12-1
Brewers… 12-1
Braves… 14-1
Injuns… 14-1
Phils… 16-1
Nationals… 20-1
Rockies… 25-1
Mets… 28-1

https://www.sportsbetting.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/mlb-futures

So 3 of the top 4 are A.L. franchises, but 8 of the next 9 are N.L.. And I can’t disagree. But it’s still rather weird to see the odds reflect this peculiar reality. The numbers are generally about right, I’d say. And IF the Birds add Yusei Kikuchi in the next week or so, they become the division favorites in my mind. (Obviously the same could be said for the Brewers, unfortunately.)

[Bob Reed]

“Do the Cards keep Carlson at PB, or do they move the 20-year-old to the more hitter-friendly AA Texas League?”

Oh, I think it’s nearly a fait accompli that he’s going to Springfield to start the season, Ny. Barring injury, anyway.

Despite superficially uninteresting numbers in 2018, Carlson was an above average hitter (112 wRC+) for the Florida State League — and moreover he was markedly better during the second half.

First half: .237/.333/.341
Second half: .253/.352/.411

That .352/.411 would be a roughly 120 wRC+, and it came with a sturdy 34/50 BB/K ratio. Solid enough for any budding corner outfielder, and terrific for a teenaged one in that league.

[Bob Reed]

Maybe I’m being unfair, but I think Puig’s head is going to explode, going from a first place Hollywood team to the cellar-dwelling Reds — who will remain cellar-dwellers, despite the additions.

Brian said it best. The Cincy pitching is flat out bad. (And I’ll be shocked if the Kemp renaissance continues. The 34-year-old has been worth a total of 0.5 WAR over the past 4 years. The Dodgers sold high on him, for sure.)

Reds improve by 2-3 games, maybe 4. Which is a lot! But they need a lot more.

[Bob Reed]

“Those rankings surely do not include Reyes or Hudson.”

The rankings do include Hudson, but they do not include Alex Reyes. (One failing of projection models is that they do not — as far as I know — take into account an extreme groundball pitcher like Dakota Hudson. They see his miniscule HR rate as largely luck rather than talent.)

“Joakim Soria has been signed by the A’s.
I would be all in on a Will Smith trade though!”

Thanks for the Soria update, gscott. I need to be more attentive. (And someone should tell Fangraphs.)
There are a few trade targets who could also offer Soria type production. Guys I’ve probably harped on too much already, like Mychal Givens, Joe Jimenez, Drew Steckenrider, Andrew Chafin, Yoan Lopez, and of course Taylor Rogers. Jace Fry and Jose Leclerc look real interesting as well.

I find it hard to believe that NO team would take a reasonable trade offer for ANY of the aforementioned eight relievers — especially if the Cards were willing to take on a bad contract in the bargain. Like Trumbo, Cobb, etc..

All I want for Christmas is the Birds to be above average or better across the board. Hitting, fielding, rotation, bullpen. And just one more very good reliever will do it. C’mon, Mo Kringle!

[Bob Reed]

I don’t blame you for being skeptical, NJ.
But with the Cards surrendering a first round draft pick for Holland, plus half a million in international bonus money, they effectively paid perhaps $25-30M for that single season of pestilence. So at least the risk with Miller is much less, on a per year basis.

Per the Fangraphs form charts, the Cards just went from a rotten 24th in relief pitching to a mediocre 17th. With an additional arm, just a very-good-but-not-great acquisition — like Joakim Soria, for example — they can be on the cusp of the top 10. (Will Smith, if you’re curious and I’m sure you are, would vault the Cards all the way to 7th.)

So get to it, Mo!

[Bob Reed]

I’d have preferred trading for someone younger or healthier or ideally both. Lefty or righty reliever, I don’t care.

But hey, you never know what exactly teams are asking for in trade. And Miller was of course magnificent until 2018. From 2014-2017 his worst year was 2015 when he threw 61 innings with a 2.04 ERA.

And there’s an argument that even his massively disappointing 2018 season wasn’t really as bad as the numbers initially make it look, as the 4.24 ERA was a distortion created by a couple of awful outings. Take away his best two games and his worst two, and his season ERA was 2.76, with a 41-to-13 K/BB in 29.1 IP.

I’d rather have David Robertson at the same price, as he’s also murder on lefty hitters and has tossed at least 60 innings for 9 straight years. But maybe Robertson wants to play in the A.L., or likes the east coast. Who knows?

But I must admit that nobody — not Robertson or Kimbrel or Britton or anyone available in trade — offers a greater potential upside than Andrew Miller.

Now go get Yusei Kikuchi, Mo, plus one more excellent reliever. That would make the Cards division co-favorites. At least.

[Bob Reed]

“Man, I can still remember waiting for the Sporting News to come in the mail each week!”

And each February, waiting for the monster Street And Smith annual. (Same with football and basketball.)
When I was an adolescent it was an expectations battle royale between the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue, and the early baseball stuff. If only Cheryl Tiegs had played for the Cardinals, then I could’ve scratched two itches at once. So to speak.

Funny this topic should arise, because I saw a Dave Dombrowski interview just a few hours ago wherein he waxed rhapsodic about how, decades back, there was a winter deadline for all trades — and maybe for free agent signings too, I don’t know. I believe it was a pre-Christmas deadline, so that MLB execs could have some true “down time” built into their schedules, before ramping up again for Spring Training. But now, a cowboy’s work is never done.

Hang in there, TexasCard. I have a feeling the Birds will do something on Thursday.

[Bob Reed]

From the opening day, Fowler stunk it up. That made him sad.

Then at long last, in mid-June he was finally benched. Because this is sports, and he was actively hurting his team by being on the field, and there was clearly someone much better to take his place. Being benched made him even sadder.

He spent five days out of the entire season, with an OPS over .615. And of course he’s a lousy fielder as well. That’s not anyone who should be on the field.

Show of faith? Show of commitment?! He stunk, he got benched. He’s a grown man, and he got benched. That’s sports. We don’t need a single scrap of inside information on Fowler to know that any bad player in any sport being benched is never an injustice. It’s the way that sports is supposed to work. It’s one of the main reasons we love sports. Because at its best it is a meritocracy.

If Fowler had “mental issues” then that’s just too darn bad — go see a therapist. You can afford it.

Maybe I’m insensitive, but maybe the club needs less sensitivity and more meritocracy for playing time. This isn’t T-ball and they don’t give participation ribbons. You play until there’s someone better to take your place.

[Bob Reed]

Robert Reed- Sportsmanship, character and integrity means that Ty Cobb should be kicked out. What about the racists, drunkards, ones with criminal incidents that have been elected to the HOF?You want to have a baseball HOF combined with a Angelic perfect person HOF?

There are six guidelines for Hall Of Fame voters. The following is lifted verbatim from the HOF website:

Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

If anyone feels that Ty Cobb’s or anyone else’s personal behavior or views should have them removed from the Hall, I will be more than happy to listen to their arguments. But addressing some of your specific remarks: Baseball itself was a racist institution until Jackie Robinson broke through, and in my view it makes very little sense to retroactively apply our modern behavioral standards to ballplayers from before the color line was crossed. All of society was different, therefore so were ballplayers.

Drunkards? Some of my best friends are drunkards. Excessive drinking has no bearing whatsoever on integrity or sportsmanship. Character, perhaps. And character is just one of the six guidelines, and for me it does not come anywhere near outweighing the other five. (This is why it’s such nonsense when people refer to the “character clause.” You may note that the PED apologists never refer to the “integrity clause” or the “sportsmanship clause.”)

Criminal records? A more extreme version of the “drunkards” remark. You can certainly question a criminal’s character. But as for their baseball integrity and sportsmanship, it has zero bearing.

Your wanting to apply your standards to everyone else reeks of censorship and suppression IMO. I might not agree with some writers opinions but I also don`t try and preach from the pulpit. Saying Greenies were not against the rules is your rationale …..yet is not greenie a drug which elevates body chemistry of the user? Hypocrisy IMHO.

The first formal MLB drug policy was enacted in April of 1971. Anyone who took “greenies” AFTER commissioner Bowie Kuhn issued his Drug Policy Memo in April of 1971 was violating MLB rules. Conversely, anyone who took greenies BEFORE he issued his Memo in April of 1971 was NOT violating MLB rules. You can’t break a rule that did not exist.

“Preach from the pulpit?” So we aren’t supposed to express opinions if they differ from those of sportswriters? You’ve lost me there. This is the internet, a wondrous marketplace of ideas.

What I want is the exact opposite of hypocrisy: I want to apply the same standards to Keith Law that Keith Law himself wishes to apply to others. Here’s what I mean. This is excerpted from Law’s chat of November 11.

Joe:
I understand if a voter refuses to vote for pitchers for MVP because he sees it as a position player’s award. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but I understand it. But it really doesn’t make sense when a writer gives deGrom a 5th place vote. If you see him as eligible, how can you possibly justify having him 5th on the ballot?

Keith Law:
I agree with your second point, but as for the first one, it is definitively NOT a position player’s award. If you refuse to consider pitchers, that is your right… but DON’T F***ING VOTE. Give the ballot to someone who will follow the actual guidelines. (I edited his obscenity. I guess that would be censorship.)

Law clearly (and profanely) wants everyone else to follow the guidelines for MVP voting. But when it comes to the illegal PED cheats, he wants to contemptuously disregard three of the six Hall Of Fame voting guidelines: integrity, sportsmanship, and character. That’s hypocrisy.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the response, BHC.
Tim Raines’ cocaine use was indeed contrary to MLB drug policy. However it’s hard to argue that it violated either the integrity or sportsmanship guidelines of the Hall Of Fame voting. Whether it showed a lack of character is in the beholder’s eye. It certainly showed stupidity.

I would never have voted for the other three, as I’m convinced enough in my own mind that they were systematic users of illegal PEDs. Some voters on the other hand want proof with a capital P before withholding their vote from an otherwise obviously qualified candidate. To each their own.

But then there’s the worst category of journalists and fans by far.

There will always be ethically and intellectually lazy or indifferent people like Keith Law who would rather do zero rigorous thinking on the subject, and prefer to simply apply no standards whatsoever. (Law infamously said with a straight face several years ago that he would vote for a PED cheat for league MVP even if he were busted in-season.) People like him, via their vile rationalizing, would in the long run eventually ruin sport, all sports amateur and professsional, for those who choose NOT to cheat.

People like Law and his ilk have no useful place even participating in Hall Of Fame discussions, much less ever casting a HOF vote, because they would choose to apply their own personal standards to the voting, and willfully ignore 3 of the 6 official voting guidelines — the aforementioned integrity, sportsmanship, and character of course.

[Bob Reed]

I’ve always had a soft spot for Asdrubal. Defensively versatile, and invariably seems to hit better with men on base. Check these splits:

Career bases empty .721 OPS
Career men on base .798

2018 bases empty .717
2018 men on base .857

As Bw52 said, he likely wouldn’t want a reserve role. Not after 8 straight years of 135+ games. But maybe more money would be a sufficient inducement. Who knows?

Anyhow, I do still like Dietrich also. Say what you will about the below average glovework, his overall value at both B-Ref and Fangraphs has still graded well above replacement level. And I love, love, love those Dietrich career home/road splits (.696/.816).

[Bob Reed]

Fair points all, Brian. And maybe the new hitting guru can fix Fowler enough to return most of the way to his best at the plate.

But at 33 and already a poor defender, he just doesn’t represent enough upside to me for 2019, much less beyond. I say Mo should go Full Dombrowski and release him. If Fowler were much more professional, then I’d say keep him as a veteran leader at 4th or 5th outfielder — he’s shown a good work ethic, he has playoff experience. These are not completely inconsequential matters.

But “professionalism” does not describe Dexter. He fussed and fumed about his benching, and still publicly griped about it in October after having months to reflect on his lost season. Through his eyes nothing was his fault. Stupid manager should have kept playing him every day despite his being perhaps the worst player in the Senior Circuit.

The O.E.D. defines “mediocre” as “of only average quality.” That’s Fowler through and through. For his 10-year career, he’s 2.0 WAR player at Fangraphs and 1.8 at Baseball-Reference. The embodiment of mediocrity.

And you know what? From Opening Day they’ll probably bat him 2nd (where the team’s best hitter should bat). Good hitters in front and in back. To try and “get him going.” To try and give precious Dexter Fowler every possible advantage. The heck with the rest of the roster. After all, wouldn’t be fair to Dex to bat him 8th where he belongs. He wouldn’t have any “protection” there.

Oh, but this is a Harper thread. I don’t want Harper. Well, maybe a pint of Old Harper.

[Bob Reed]

Wasn’t John Heyman discredited as a serious “journalist” more than half a decade ago, due to his incessant shilling for Boras clients? Always seems to be Heyman telling us about “mystery teams” and “mystery owners” — and only when it’s a Scott Boras client. Some coincidence.

Don’t know why Mo or anyone would wish so fondly for Dexter Fowler’s 2017 season. Just 1.6 WAR per Baseball-Reference; and injury-riddled of course. When he plays, he’s mediocre. Then he gets hurt.

Dexter is like the joke about the old women vacationing at a Catskills resort. “The food here is terrible,” says the first one. “Yes,” replies the second. “And such small portions.”

[Bob Reed]

“…the FO is scared to go make the huge splash…sure fixing the pen will help a little but right now still a 3rd place team in division…and that is without Mil and Cubs doing ANYTHING yet.”

Not that I trust the computer models as infallible gospel, but the Fangraphs projections have the Cards second to the cubs in the division right now, and trailing Chicago by a scant single game. I expect the Cards, cubs, and Brewers to all still make moves this offseason. I don’t expect any one of them to dramatically out-do the other two, going forward this winter.

Also, I would argue that the Brewers will need to make several smart moves just to stay above 88-90 wins, because they (1)had almost every single thing go really, really right in 2018; and (2)already lost quite a few quality innings, assuming that Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez and Dan Jennings and Xavier Cedeno sign elsewhere this winter.

That quartet combined for 21 starts and 87 relief appearances, totaling 178.1 IP and a 2.67 ERA. So losing them is a lot like losing a Miles Mikolas off your roster. It’s gonna leave a mark.

And don’t forget, the Cards played nearly .600 baseball after dumping Mabry/Mueller/Matheny in July. And that’s despite playing more than 70% of their second half games against teams with winning records. When you replace the worst hitting coach in baseball with someone competent, great things happen. (Despite facing markedly tougher pitching, the Cardinal team OPS jumped by nearly 40 points over the second half.)

I see the Cards as currently right there, with the two division rivals. And due to their horrible bullpen the Cards have a painfully obvious weakness, while the others do not. So in a weird way, that gives the Birds an offseason advantage — better chance to improve an important facet of the team without breaking the bank.

[Bob Reed]

“Nobody likes players to have a advantage over other players. The facts are baseball has had a long history of players looking for a edge by whatever means possible-Gaylord Perry’s spitball, Elston Howard using his buckles on his shin guards to cut the baseball for Whitey Ford and other NYY pitchers, Amphetamines, corking bats, Pine tar (hello George Brett),etc.. Players are always looking for a advantage legal or otherwise.”

I see this argument frequently, and my response would be threefold.

One, the illegal drug use of McGwire, Bonds, Clemens and others was expressly forbidden in baseball beginning in April of 1971 with Commissioner Bowie Kuhn’s Drug Policy Memo. (Among other things, this means that all of the “greenies” taken by Mickey Mantle and others in the 1960’s were not a violation of MLB policy.)

Two, in matters of criminal law, e.g., thievery, assault, it is a universally accepted principle that there are degrees of transgression. No one would remotely equate stealing a handful of jelly & jam packets from a diner, with a Pulp Fiction-style armed robbery of that same diner. Similarly, no one with any sense would equate scuffing a baseball with systematically altering one’s body via the repeated use of illegal PEDs. Another principle is that the punishment should be proportional to the transgression.

But three, IF anyone wants to assert that Gaylord Perry should be removed from the Hall Of Fame due to spitball throwing, or Mickey Mantle because of greenies, or George Brett due to pine tar, then I’m more than happy to hear their argument. Maybe there are some guys in the Hall who should be removed, for whatever cause.

But the key for me is that in a time when there were very specific, explicit rules against the use of any illegal drugs, some ballplayers chose to play it clean and some did not. By honoring the drug cheats we ourselves aid and abet their dishonesty, and therefore we mistreat the very players we should be praising. The players who could have cheated, but chose not to.

Anyway I’m very glad for Big Lee and Silent Harold. I wouldn’t have voted for Harold, to be honest. But I am still thrilled that he made it. Class act all around, and the only “must see” hitter on some really rotten White Sox teams of the 1980’s. I mean, I’d have the TV on, I’d watch Harold’s AB, but then I’d immediately leave the room to do chores of some sort. Then I’d return when Harold was coming up again.

[Bob Reed]

Fred McGriff has been cheated not so much by the voters, as by his prominent contemporaries at first base, who just happened to be illegal PED users. The Crime Dog’s prime lasted from 1987-2001, and as you may see from this link, over that 15-year stretch the top 3 first basemen in the majors were all drug cheats. (Well, two confirmed PED cheats and another highly likely one.) Then came Frank Thomas, then McGriff.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2001&month=0&season1=1987&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

The drug cheats raised the “average” performance of MLB first basemen, and thus artificially lowered all other first basemen’s WAR totals. It wouldn’t be a huge amount, but it wouldn’t be entirely negligible either. Not to mention any stolen All-Star game appearances, and other potential accolade theft.

Drug cheats poison the well of sport in so many ways, and it doesn’t stop when they’re exposed, or even after they retire. If this weren’t a family website I’d really tell you what I think of them.

[Author]

Posts