[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the kind words, Pugs. And a happy new year!

And funny coincidence, not ten minutes ago I just said more or less the same thing on another thread, re Alex Reyes.

[Bob Reed]

“Seems like RB didn’t trust Reyes to not be injured, and did like the upside of the other guys. Personally I can’t see any reason anyone would put Reyes any lower than #2, and that’s only if you are dreaming on Gorman becoming a good 3B with a big bat.”

Well I still have Reyes #1, if just barely. But I can understand why a rationally frustrated and perhaps somewhat pessimistic (fatalistic?) analyst would place him considerably lower.

I understand it, but disagree with it. The thing is, Reyes was SO amazing during his rehab appearances, that I perceive his ceiling as now probably higher than it’s ever been — although, rather paradoxically, achieving that ceiling is lower in likelihood than ever, due to Reyes’ injury inclinations. In the past, his inefficiency, the lack of command, always made him a #2 upside guy for me. Now however, if he’s not physically broken, in my opinion he could be a Cy Young type.

I don’t imagine anyone here needs a reminder, but the rehab games totaled 23 innings and featured an otherworldly 44-to-7 strikeout/walk tally (and as a bonus, just 7 base hits). He fanned 26 of the 49 batters in the two AA and AAA starts. Alex hadn’t shown anything like that sort of domination since his final month of Low-A ball, when he had a 38/6 K/BB over 25 innings pitched.

Maybe my glasses are Cardinal-colored, but with the recent seasons of Tommy Pham and Marco Gonzales, I’m less quick to give up on “injury guys.” For a bigger talent, I’ll cross my fingers and hope for health. So I’m giving Alex Reyes one more year. If on the other hand he comes up badly injured this Spring Training, and is therefore still eligible for prospect lists 12 months from now, he’ll get a HUGE downgrade from me. Almost surely lower than 6th.

[Bob Reed]

Didn’t want to start a whole new thread, since this Molina “update” ties in with the topic. For those who don’t already know, Baseball Prospectus has updated their hitter values, based on their new batting metric, the name of which escapes me at the moment.

By this shiny new yardstick, Yadi Molina gets a nearly 10% boost to his career WAR, but Harrison Bader has his MLB value, and value at every level of the minors for that matter, almost gutted. So I suspect that what’s going on here is that B-Pro’s exciting new acronym is over-correcting for outliers of infield hits/BABIP — and said over-correcting excessively helps the slowest of slowpokes while stealing from the Baders of the world.

Anyway, this metric being applied by B-Pro to Yadi and (presumably) his fellow backstops, shouldn’t give any one individual player any meaningful advantage. They pretty much all run like catchers, right? So here are the top 10 tools of ignorance wearers, by career WAR, per B-Pro’s latest update:

Carlton Fisk… 77.1 WAR
Yogi Berra… 73.4
Johnny Bench… 72.9
Mike Piazza… 70.6
Gary Carter… 67.7
Yadi Molina… 59.2
Ivan Rodriguez… 57.9
Bill Dickey… 53.2
Mickey Cochrane… 53.0
Ted Simmons… 52.1

The other Hall Of Fame catchers for whom B-Pro has WAR values, range from 33.3 career WAR for Rick “maybe they meant to phone my brother” Ferrell, to 46.7 WAR for Gabby “gloamin’ homer” Hartnett.

All in all, the 12 HOF catchers with B-Pro WAR values (the other two are Campy & Lombardi) score an average of 57.7 career WAR. Toss out the high and low men, and the average is 58.2. Keep the high and low, but toss the two probable PED cheats, and the average becomes 56.6.

So any way we slice it, Yadi Molina with his 59.2 WAR definitely belongs with this Hall Of Fame group.

(For the sake of completeness, the other six enshrined backstops are Roger Bresnahan, Buck Ewing, King Kelly, Biz Mackey, Louis Santop, and Ray Schalk.)

[Bob Reed]

I just want mostly to echo Brian’s thoughts: thanks for all the math, CC!

I do enjoy speculating on all things baseball, so…looking at that prospective roster, I’d replace Harper with O’Neill, Gomber with Mikolas, and Reyes with Kikuchi. Reyes is pushed to the bullpen. O’Neill’s bench slot is likely filled by Randy Arozarena or Justin Williams or Lane Thomas.

CC’s powerful lineup would almost surely lead the National League in runs scored, and maybe all of baseball. But I’m not crazy about the rotation or bullpen — and I also don’t like what’s happening in the minors right now, in terms of twirlers. There’s a non-zero chance that 12 months from now the top 16-18 Cardinal minor leaguers will all be position players.

The top 4 pitchers could all lose rookie eligibility by then (Reyes, Hudson, Helsley, Cabrera), and the fifth just got suspended for abject idiocy. (I do think Angel Rondon is being overlooked by many. The fastball velocity and curveball snap were both average or better when I saw him this summer. Couldn’t tell if the third pitch was a slider or straight change, but he began to show some feel for it after the 3rd inning or so. A solid 4/5 starter is not unrealistic with lucky health.)

[Bob Reed]

I think Davenport’s projection model continues to punish Jose Martinez for his uneven and quite lengthy minor league track record. I agree entirely that it is too conservative, given what Martinez has done in MLB over the past two years.

2017 .309 with an .897 OPS
2018 .305 with an .821
Davenport 2019 50th percentile .266 with a .749 OPS

On the other hand, it’s one of the things I do like about Davenport’s model in general — it does clearly give a LOT of weight to minor league performance when forecasting MLB hitters. Much more so than Steamer, ZiPS, and other publicly available projection systems.

But in this case it bites Jose in the backside. Not unlike the fairly bleak 2019 Max Muncy forecast.

Max Muncy 2018 MLB actual line: .263/.391/.582
Davenport 2019 50th percentile .244/.356/.450

Just for kicks, here are some other notables, with their Davenport 2019 50th percentiles per 600 PA’s. (Bearing in mind of course that some will get many fewer trips to the plate than that.)

Paul Goldschmidt 5.0 WAR
Matt Carpenter 4.2
Kolten Wong 4.2
Tommy Pham 4.2
Yadi Molina 3.8
Jedd Gyorko 3.6
Paul DeJong 3.0
Luke Voit 2.4

Davenport’s system doesn’t like DeJong’s glovework nearly as much as, well, everybody else. But still, nothing shabby about a 3-win player. It just looks a little weak compared to the rest of the lineup.

Looking back, in late July when Mo wanted to get Harry Bader back into the lineup after Shildt removed him for Dexter Fowler, maybe instead of trading Tommy Pham it would have been better for Mo to simply release Dexter, and ever-so-subtly recommended to Mr. Shildt to start Ozuna, Bader, and Pham. But maybe that’s just me.

[Bob Reed]

“I really hope they don’t bump O’Neill down to AAA to carry Martinez and Gyorko though.”

Presented without comment, the 2019 Clay Davenport 50th percentile projections for some Cardinal outfielders, on a per 600 plate appearance basis.

Marcell Ozuna 3.7 WAR
Tyler O’Neill 3.6
Harrison Bader 2.9
Dexter Fowler 1.9
Justin Williams 1.5
Randy Arozarena 1.3
Jose Martinez 0.8
Lane Thomas 0.7
Jose Adolis Garcia 0.0

[Bob Reed]

…and I could have but did not mention three other variables that favor the pitching troika over Bryce Harper.

1) Cards almost surely don’t have to offer opt-outs to the pitchers

2) No loss of draft pick/budget with hurlers

3) No commitment beyond the five years, with the twirlers

The third point might be the most important, as I just glanced at Harper’s Baseball-Reference page and noticed that his “most similar player by age” for each of the past three seasons has been Andruw Jones — who aged exceptionally poorly after age 30. Nearly 60 WAR in his 20’s and fewer than 5 WAR in his 30’s. Sure, it likely means nothing. But it doesn’t help.

[Bob Reed]

“Bob, for me, it is a simple equation. Harper is worth between 4.5 and 5 wins.”

I value Harper lower than this, based on Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. The only way I can see to possibly value him as a 4.5 to 5 WAR player is to look at his collective last 4 seasons only. Not the last 3 or 5 or 6 or 2. Just 4 and only 4. (Over the last 3 seasons for example, he’s averaged a mere 2.5 at B-Ref and 3.8 at Fangraphs.)

For his seven year career, Harper has averaged 3.9 WAR at B-Ref and 4.4 per Fangraphs. If we remove his outlying worst and best season at each website, he’s averaged just 3.3 WAR at B-Ref and 4.0 at F-G. This does not look like a generational, transformational player to me. At best, he’s apparently a 4.4 WAR guy, and at worst a 3.3 talent. Again, that’s not ME talking. That’s the two most respected player valuation websites.

“Harper is a moot point. I already said many times why I prefer to sign Harper but I am a minority of one.”

No need to repeat your arguments for my sake. I just wanted to frame the discussion in a very specific either/or manner, to clarify the waters a bit. I’d take Harper in a vacuum, too. In fact I’d happily sign the guy for $22M a year, at up to 12 years. But he’s not signing for that.

“If the Cardinals really want to get better and the Front Office has intimated that they do then let’s do both.“

I cannot argue against accruing talent. But the point of the exercise was to choose, because every team, even the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs with their truly massive revenues, has to make choices. As the philosopher observed: you can’t have everything, where would you put it?

But okay, how about another Harperthetical. Would you rather invest $350M for 10 years of Bryce right now…or invest $500M for 10 years of Mike Trout, starting two years from now? Me, I prefer the latter, and it’s not remotely close.

Thanks so much for ALL of the responses, guys!

[Bob Reed]

Oh, okay. Thanks much everyone, for all the clarifications/feedback.

My only concern remains the same as 24 hours ago. I hope Mike Shildt understands that he should not ever again start Yadi for 27 games in a row — much less during the summer dog days.

Yadi career OPS splits by month:
April through July, all between .721 and .728
August .797
Sept./Oct. .742

Yadi 2018 splits
April through July, all between .746 and .854
August .664
Sept. .672

Has Shildt publicly admitted yet that he screwed up last year with the 27-in-a-row? It wouldn’t be much of an admission, since everyone already knows it. (Of course the Post-Dispatch won’t ever mention it, since criticizing Shildt in any manner could be construed somehow as vaguely indirectly wordlessly praising Matheny, and we certainly can’t have that.) I’d like to see Shildt show some understanding of the Yadi situation.

[Bob Reed]

Just a quick question for the Bryce Harper advocates.

Would you rather the Cards invest $175M on the next 5 years of Bryce Harper…

OR invest the same $175M on:

2 years of Andrew Miller ($25M) plus 5 years of Miles Mikolas ($85M) plus 5 years of Yusei Kikuchi ($65M)?

Based on the Cards’ current talent in the majors and minors in terms of pitchers and outfielders, I would personally much rather load up on the arms if given the choice.

[Bob Reed]

“That’s hilarious. Some people on here are about to go into fits of apoplexy, I’m guessing.”

I enjoy getting upset, about baseball. But what should I be upset about?

The fact that Pena is back? Or that Yadi hasn’t adhered strictly enough to recuperation protocols? Or that Yadi might want to return after the 2020 season? None of these surprise or upset me very much, if at all.

Or is it something else? I apologize for my obtuseness.

[Bob Reed]

I would have left Carlson in Peoria for more than a couple of weeks this year…but other than that, I’d say the Redbirds have handled him okay.

I do agree with Pads, in that I’d like to see Dylan get plenty of high minors seasoning. (Heaven knows the club has outfielders aplenty in AAA and the majors right now.) We shouldn’t look down our noses at what DC managed to do as a teenager in the Florida State League, however. His BB/K was distinctly better than Ryan Braun had at age 22 in the FSL, and his isolated power topped both Bagwell and Big Frank Thomas in the same league when they were each 21. Here are some details:

Dylan Carlson at 19 in the FSL, .136 isolated slugging overall and .158 in the 2nd half.
Elehuris Montero at 19, .122 ISO.
Frank Thomas at 21, also .122
Bagwell at 21, .109 ISO.
Ryan Braun at 22, 23/54 BB/K
Matt Carpenter at 23 batted .219/.286/.342 with a mediocre 10/24 BB/K

I don’t mean to imply that Montero or Carlson will be stars — best bet, they’ll be solid regulars instead. Just wanted to illustrate with historical context what you guys already knew: it can be very hard for anyone to hit baseballs in the Florida State League.

[Bob Reed]

Carlos became an MLB starting pitcher in 2015.

Here’s a list of pitchers who’ve thrown more innings, with a lower ERA than Carlos, since 2015:

Kershaw, Scherzer, DeGrom, Kluber, Sale, Greinke, Verlander, Arrieta, and somehow Kyle Hendricks. So that’s the entire list of pitchers who’ve definitely been better than Carlos since he became a starter 4 years ago. Except for the sore thumb inclusion of Hendricks, it’s nothing but stars and superstars. Mostly superstars.

I don’t blame anyone for hating the dumb hair color. But let’s not equate Carlos’ hair or Yadi’s neck tattoos or Wainwright’s dugout dancing with a lack of commitment to craft. Could Carlos be better? Almost certainly. Is he terrific as is? Also almost certainly.

We are lucky to have him.

[Bob Reed]

Please don’t take this as a criticism, CC. But why do you believe that the Brewers aren’t already contenders?

Not only did they of course win the Central in 2018, they also led the N.L. in victories, didn’t lose much to free agency, and could get Jimmy Nelson back in 2019. (I know, it’s probably just that you and I differ somewhat in our use of the word “contender.” I suspect you’re more strict than I.)

At any rate, here are the very latest World Series favorites at Sportsbetting.ag

Dodgers… 6-1
Red Sox… 7-1
Astros… 7-1
Yankees… 7-1
Cards… 12-1
cubs… 12-1
Brewers… 12-1
Braves… 14-1
Injuns… 14-1
Phils… 16-1
Nationals… 20-1
Rockies… 25-1
Mets… 28-1

https://www.sportsbetting.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/mlb-futures

So 3 of the top 4 are A.L. franchises, but 8 of the next 9 are N.L.. And I can’t disagree. But it’s still rather weird to see the odds reflect this peculiar reality. The numbers are generally about right, I’d say. And IF the Birds add Yusei Kikuchi in the next week or so, they become the division favorites in my mind. (Obviously the same could be said for the Brewers, unfortunately.)

[Bob Reed]

“Do the Cards keep Carlson at PB, or do they move the 20-year-old to the more hitter-friendly AA Texas League?”

Oh, I think it’s nearly a fait accompli that he’s going to Springfield to start the season, Ny. Barring injury, anyway.

Despite superficially uninteresting numbers in 2018, Carlson was an above average hitter (112 wRC+) for the Florida State League — and moreover he was markedly better during the second half.

First half: .237/.333/.341
Second half: .253/.352/.411

That .352/.411 would be a roughly 120 wRC+, and it came with a sturdy 34/50 BB/K ratio. Solid enough for any budding corner outfielder, and terrific for a teenaged one in that league.

[Bob Reed]

Maybe I’m being unfair, but I think Puig’s head is going to explode, going from a first place Hollywood team to the cellar-dwelling Reds — who will remain cellar-dwellers, despite the additions.

Brian said it best. The Cincy pitching is flat out bad. (And I’ll be shocked if the Kemp renaissance continues. The 34-year-old has been worth a total of 0.5 WAR over the past 4 years. The Dodgers sold high on him, for sure.)

Reds improve by 2-3 games, maybe 4. Which is a lot! But they need a lot more.

[Bob Reed]

“Those rankings surely do not include Reyes or Hudson.”

The rankings do include Hudson, but they do not include Alex Reyes. (One failing of projection models is that they do not — as far as I know — take into account an extreme groundball pitcher like Dakota Hudson. They see his miniscule HR rate as largely luck rather than talent.)

“Joakim Soria has been signed by the A’s.
I would be all in on a Will Smith trade though!”

Thanks for the Soria update, gscott. I need to be more attentive. (And someone should tell Fangraphs.)
There are a few trade targets who could also offer Soria type production. Guys I’ve probably harped on too much already, like Mychal Givens, Joe Jimenez, Drew Steckenrider, Andrew Chafin, Yoan Lopez, and of course Taylor Rogers. Jace Fry and Jose Leclerc look real interesting as well.

I find it hard to believe that NO team would take a reasonable trade offer for ANY of the aforementioned eight relievers — especially if the Cards were willing to take on a bad contract in the bargain. Like Trumbo, Cobb, etc..

All I want for Christmas is the Birds to be above average or better across the board. Hitting, fielding, rotation, bullpen. And just one more very good reliever will do it. C’mon, Mo Kringle!

[Bob Reed]

I don’t blame you for being skeptical, NJ.
But with the Cards surrendering a first round draft pick for Holland, plus half a million in international bonus money, they effectively paid perhaps $25-30M for that single season of pestilence. So at least the risk with Miller is much less, on a per year basis.

Per the Fangraphs form charts, the Cards just went from a rotten 24th in relief pitching to a mediocre 17th. With an additional arm, just a very-good-but-not-great acquisition — like Joakim Soria, for example — they can be on the cusp of the top 10. (Will Smith, if you’re curious and I’m sure you are, would vault the Cards all the way to 7th.)

So get to it, Mo!

[Bob Reed]

I’d have preferred trading for someone younger or healthier or ideally both. Lefty or righty reliever, I don’t care.

But hey, you never know what exactly teams are asking for in trade. And Miller was of course magnificent until 2018. From 2014-2017 his worst year was 2015 when he threw 61 innings with a 2.04 ERA.

And there’s an argument that even his massively disappointing 2018 season wasn’t really as bad as the numbers initially make it look, as the 4.24 ERA was a distortion created by a couple of awful outings. Take away his best two games and his worst two, and his season ERA was 2.76, with a 41-to-13 K/BB in 29.1 IP.

I’d rather have David Robertson at the same price, as he’s also murder on lefty hitters and has tossed at least 60 innings for 9 straight years. But maybe Robertson wants to play in the A.L., or likes the east coast. Who knows?

But I must admit that nobody — not Robertson or Kimbrel or Britton or anyone available in trade — offers a greater potential upside than Andrew Miller.

Now go get Yusei Kikuchi, Mo, plus one more excellent reliever. That would make the Cards division co-favorites. At least.

[Bob Reed]

“Man, I can still remember waiting for the Sporting News to come in the mail each week!”

And each February, waiting for the monster Street And Smith annual. (Same with football and basketball.)
When I was an adolescent it was an expectations battle royale between the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue, and the early baseball stuff. If only Cheryl Tiegs had played for the Cardinals, then I could’ve scratched two itches at once. So to speak.

Funny this topic should arise, because I saw a Dave Dombrowski interview just a few hours ago wherein he waxed rhapsodic about how, decades back, there was a winter deadline for all trades — and maybe for free agent signings too, I don’t know. I believe it was a pre-Christmas deadline, so that MLB execs could have some true “down time” built into their schedules, before ramping up again for Spring Training. But now, a cowboy’s work is never done.

Hang in there, TexasCard. I have a feeling the Birds will do something on Thursday.

[Bob Reed]

From the opening day, Fowler stunk it up. That made him sad.

Then at long last, in mid-June he was finally benched. Because this is sports, and he was actively hurting his team by being on the field, and there was clearly someone much better to take his place. Being benched made him even sadder.

He spent five days out of the entire season, with an OPS over .615. And of course he’s a lousy fielder as well. That’s not anyone who should be on the field.

Show of faith? Show of commitment?! He stunk, he got benched. He’s a grown man, and he got benched. That’s sports. We don’t need a single scrap of inside information on Fowler to know that any bad player in any sport being benched is never an injustice. It’s the way that sports is supposed to work. It’s one of the main reasons we love sports. Because at its best it is a meritocracy.

If Fowler had “mental issues” then that’s just too darn bad — go see a therapist. You can afford it.

Maybe I’m insensitive, but maybe the club needs less sensitivity and more meritocracy for playing time. This isn’t T-ball and they don’t give participation ribbons. You play until there’s someone better to take your place.

[Bob Reed]

Robert Reed- Sportsmanship, character and integrity means that Ty Cobb should be kicked out. What about the racists, drunkards, ones with criminal incidents that have been elected to the HOF?You want to have a baseball HOF combined with a Angelic perfect person HOF?

There are six guidelines for Hall Of Fame voters. The following is lifted verbatim from the HOF website:

Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

If anyone feels that Ty Cobb’s or anyone else’s personal behavior or views should have them removed from the Hall, I will be more than happy to listen to their arguments. But addressing some of your specific remarks: Baseball itself was a racist institution until Jackie Robinson broke through, and in my view it makes very little sense to retroactively apply our modern behavioral standards to ballplayers from before the color line was crossed. All of society was different, therefore so were ballplayers.

Drunkards? Some of my best friends are drunkards. Excessive drinking has no bearing whatsoever on integrity or sportsmanship. Character, perhaps. And character is just one of the six guidelines, and for me it does not come anywhere near outweighing the other five. (This is why it’s such nonsense when people refer to the “character clause.” You may note that the PED apologists never refer to the “integrity clause” or the “sportsmanship clause.”)

Criminal records? A more extreme version of the “drunkards” remark. You can certainly question a criminal’s character. But as for their baseball integrity and sportsmanship, it has zero bearing.

Your wanting to apply your standards to everyone else reeks of censorship and suppression IMO. I might not agree with some writers opinions but I also don`t try and preach from the pulpit. Saying Greenies were not against the rules is your rationale …..yet is not greenie a drug which elevates body chemistry of the user? Hypocrisy IMHO.

The first formal MLB drug policy was enacted in April of 1971. Anyone who took “greenies” AFTER commissioner Bowie Kuhn issued his Drug Policy Memo in April of 1971 was violating MLB rules. Conversely, anyone who took greenies BEFORE he issued his Memo in April of 1971 was NOT violating MLB rules. You can’t break a rule that did not exist.

“Preach from the pulpit?” So we aren’t supposed to express opinions if they differ from those of sportswriters? You’ve lost me there. This is the internet, a wondrous marketplace of ideas.

What I want is the exact opposite of hypocrisy: I want to apply the same standards to Keith Law that Keith Law himself wishes to apply to others. Here’s what I mean. This is excerpted from Law’s chat of November 11.

Joe:
I understand if a voter refuses to vote for pitchers for MVP because he sees it as a position player’s award. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but I understand it. But it really doesn’t make sense when a writer gives deGrom a 5th place vote. If you see him as eligible, how can you possibly justify having him 5th on the ballot?

Keith Law:
I agree with your second point, but as for the first one, it is definitively NOT a position player’s award. If you refuse to consider pitchers, that is your right… but DON’T F***ING VOTE. Give the ballot to someone who will follow the actual guidelines. (I edited his obscenity. I guess that would be censorship.)

Law clearly (and profanely) wants everyone else to follow the guidelines for MVP voting. But when it comes to the illegal PED cheats, he wants to contemptuously disregard three of the six Hall Of Fame voting guidelines: integrity, sportsmanship, and character. That’s hypocrisy.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the response, BHC.
Tim Raines’ cocaine use was indeed contrary to MLB drug policy. However it’s hard to argue that it violated either the integrity or sportsmanship guidelines of the Hall Of Fame voting. Whether it showed a lack of character is in the beholder’s eye. It certainly showed stupidity.

I would never have voted for the other three, as I’m convinced enough in my own mind that they were systematic users of illegal PEDs. Some voters on the other hand want proof with a capital P before withholding their vote from an otherwise obviously qualified candidate. To each their own.

But then there’s the worst category of journalists and fans by far.

There will always be ethically and intellectually lazy or indifferent people like Keith Law who would rather do zero rigorous thinking on the subject, and prefer to simply apply no standards whatsoever. (Law infamously said with a straight face several years ago that he would vote for a PED cheat for league MVP even if he were busted in-season.) People like him, via their vile rationalizing, would in the long run eventually ruin sport, all sports amateur and professsional, for those who choose NOT to cheat.

People like Law and his ilk have no useful place even participating in Hall Of Fame discussions, much less ever casting a HOF vote, because they would choose to apply their own personal standards to the voting, and willfully ignore 3 of the 6 official voting guidelines — the aforementioned integrity, sportsmanship, and character of course.

[Bob Reed]

I’ve always had a soft spot for Asdrubal. Defensively versatile, and invariably seems to hit better with men on base. Check these splits:

Career bases empty .721 OPS
Career men on base .798

2018 bases empty .717
2018 men on base .857

As Bw52 said, he likely wouldn’t want a reserve role. Not after 8 straight years of 135+ games. But maybe more money would be a sufficient inducement. Who knows?

Anyhow, I do still like Dietrich also. Say what you will about the below average glovework, his overall value at both B-Ref and Fangraphs has still graded well above replacement level. And I love, love, love those Dietrich career home/road splits (.696/.816).

[Bob Reed]

Fair points all, Brian. And maybe the new hitting guru can fix Fowler enough to return most of the way to his best at the plate.

But at 33 and already a poor defender, he just doesn’t represent enough upside to me for 2019, much less beyond. I say Mo should go Full Dombrowski and release him. If Fowler were much more professional, then I’d say keep him as a veteran leader at 4th or 5th outfielder — he’s shown a good work ethic, he has playoff experience. These are not completely inconsequential matters.

But “professionalism” does not describe Dexter. He fussed and fumed about his benching, and still publicly griped about it in October after having months to reflect on his lost season. Through his eyes nothing was his fault. Stupid manager should have kept playing him every day despite his being perhaps the worst player in the Senior Circuit.

The O.E.D. defines “mediocre” as “of only average quality.” That’s Fowler through and through. For his 10-year career, he’s 2.0 WAR player at Fangraphs and 1.8 at Baseball-Reference. The embodiment of mediocrity.

And you know what? From Opening Day they’ll probably bat him 2nd (where the team’s best hitter should bat). Good hitters in front and in back. To try and “get him going.” To try and give precious Dexter Fowler every possible advantage. The heck with the rest of the roster. After all, wouldn’t be fair to Dex to bat him 8th where he belongs. He wouldn’t have any “protection” there.

Oh, but this is a Harper thread. I don’t want Harper. Well, maybe a pint of Old Harper.

[Author]

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