Bob Reed

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  • in reply to: Bryce Harper thread #76914
    Bob Reed
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    Wasn’t John Heyman discredited as a serious “journalist” more than half a decade ago, due to his incessant shilling for Boras clients? Always seems to be Heyman telling us about “mystery teams” and “mystery owners” — and only when it’s a Scott Boras client. Some coincidence.

    Don’t know why Mo or anyone would wish so fondly for Dexter Fowler’s 2017 season. Just 1.6 WAR per Baseball-Reference; and injury-riddled of course. When he plays, he’s mediocre. Then he gets hurt.

    Dexter is like the joke about the old women vacationing at a Catskills resort. “The food here is terrible,” says the first one. “Yes,” replies the second. “And such small portions.”

    in reply to: Bryce Harper thread #76891
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    “…the FO is scared to go make the huge splash…sure fixing the pen will help a little but right now still a 3rd place team in division…and that is without Mil and Cubs doing ANYTHING yet.”

    Not that I trust the computer models as infallible gospel, but the Fangraphs projections have the Cards second to the cubs in the division right now, and trailing Chicago by a scant single game. I expect the Cards, cubs, and Brewers to all still make moves this offseason. I don’t expect any one of them to dramatically out-do the other two, going forward this winter.

    Also, I would argue that the Brewers will need to make several smart moves just to stay above 88-90 wins, because they (1)had almost every single thing go really, really right in 2018; and (2)already lost quite a few quality innings, assuming that Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez and Dan Jennings and Xavier Cedeno sign elsewhere this winter.

    That quartet combined for 21 starts and 87 relief appearances, totaling 178.1 IP and a 2.67 ERA. So losing them is a lot like losing a Miles Mikolas off your roster. It’s gonna leave a mark.

    And don’t forget, the Cards played nearly .600 baseball after dumping Mabry/Mueller/Matheny in July. And that’s despite playing more than 70% of their second half games against teams with winning records. When you replace the worst hitting coach in baseball with someone competent, great things happen. (Despite facing markedly tougher pitching, the Cardinal team OPS jumped by nearly 40 points over the second half.)

    I see the Cards as currently right there, with the two division rivals. And due to their horrible bullpen the Cards have a painfully obvious weakness, while the others do not. So in a weird way, that gives the Birds an offseason advantage — better chance to improve an important facet of the team without breaking the bank.

    in reply to: Cooperstown Class of 2019 #76865
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    “Nobody likes players to have a advantage over other players. The facts are baseball has had a long history of players looking for a edge by whatever means possible-Gaylord Perry’s spitball, Elston Howard using his buckles on his shin guards to cut the baseball for Whitey Ford and other NYY pitchers, Amphetamines, corking bats, Pine tar (hello George Brett),etc.. Players are always looking for a advantage legal or otherwise.”

    I see this argument frequently, and my response would be threefold.

    One, the illegal drug use of McGwire, Bonds, Clemens and others was expressly forbidden in baseball beginning in April of 1971 with Commissioner Bowie Kuhn’s Drug Policy Memo. (Among other things, this means that all of the “greenies” taken by Mickey Mantle and others in the 1960’s were not a violation of MLB policy.)

    Two, in matters of criminal law, e.g., thievery, assault, it is a universally accepted principle that there are degrees of transgression. No one would remotely equate stealing a handful of jelly & jam packets from a diner, with a Pulp Fiction-style armed robbery of that same diner. Similarly, no one with any sense would equate scuffing a baseball with systematically altering one’s body via the repeated use of illegal PEDs. Another principle is that the punishment should be proportional to the transgression.

    But three, IF anyone wants to assert that Gaylord Perry should be removed from the Hall Of Fame due to spitball throwing, or Mickey Mantle because of greenies, or George Brett due to pine tar, then I’m more than happy to hear their argument. Maybe there are some guys in the Hall who should be removed, for whatever cause.

    But the key for me is that in a time when there were very specific, explicit rules against the use of any illegal drugs, some ballplayers chose to play it clean and some did not. By honoring the drug cheats we ourselves aid and abet their dishonesty, and therefore we mistreat the very players we should be praising. The players who could have cheated, but chose not to.

    Anyway I’m very glad for Big Lee and Silent Harold. I wouldn’t have voted for Harold, to be honest. But I am still thrilled that he made it. Class act all around, and the only “must see” hitter on some really rotten White Sox teams of the 1980’s. I mean, I’d have the TV on, I’d watch Harold’s AB, but then I’d immediately leave the room to do chores of some sort. Then I’d return when Harold was coming up again.

    in reply to: Cooperstown Class of 2019 #76755
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    Fred McGriff has been cheated not so much by the voters, as by his prominent contemporaries at first base, who just happened to be illegal PED users. The Crime Dog’s prime lasted from 1987-2001, and as you may see from this link, over that 15-year stretch the top 3 first basemen in the majors were all drug cheats. (Well, two confirmed PED cheats and another highly likely one.) Then came Frank Thomas, then McGriff.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2001&month=0&season1=1987&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    The drug cheats raised the “average” performance of MLB first basemen, and thus artificially lowered all other first basemen’s WAR totals. It wouldn’t be a huge amount, but it wouldn’t be entirely negligible either. Not to mention any stolen All-Star game appearances, and other potential accolade theft.

    Drug cheats poison the well of sport in so many ways, and it doesn’t stop when they’re exposed, or even after they retire. If this weren’t a family website I’d really tell you what I think of them.

    in reply to: 2019 LH hitting additions – Drew Robinson + ? #76599
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    “Gyorko, right now, I believe is quality depth. Carpenter will need rest. He can platoon a bit with Wong.
    Really what we need to do is cut Fowler & Cecil (the only 2 players on the Cardinals with full NTC’s by the way).”

    I don’t always agree with C-2016, but I very enthusiastically second all of the above thoughts. And I also agree with him re Derek Dietrich for lefty bat off the bench. Dietrich is the same age and same general talent level/career track record as Marwin Gonzalez, but will cost a lot less than Marwin, I’m pretty sure, due to Marwin’s flukey 2017 monster year, and his national publicity arising from the Astros’ success of late.

    Moreover, DD might provide substantially more hitting value than it superficially appears, since his home/road split was so crazily skewed while playing for the Marlins. With 1,000 – 1,100 trips to the plate both home and away, here are the nutty numbers.

    Home .234/.319/.377
    Road .272/.351/.465

    That’s an .816 road OPS, versus .696 at home. I apologize if this has been mentioned on any other threads. But even if it has, it probably bears repeating anyway.

    I am STILL saying that the bullpen should be priority number one, and two, and three. But as long as people think that we need a versatile lefty bench bat, the Cards may as well get one with upside.

    in reply to: 2019 closer/relievers thread – Miller + ? #76489
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    “Oh, he (Jose Martinez) has value. But there are only about 3 teams that need a DH that don’t have one. And you can get a DH for a few million bucks.
    Good relievers > DH”

    Prior to the 2017 season the Indians gave 34-year-old DH Edwin Encarnacion a 3-year deal for $60M coming off a 134 OPS+ season. Jose Martinez has a lifetime 128 OPS+. And he’s a long way from 34, and he makes no dough.

    If an A.L. team doesn’t see him as a terrific opportunity, then they’re nuts. And maybe they are, I don’t know. But Jose at his current batting line as a 150 games DH is much more valuable than 95-99% of even the good MLB relievers.

    in reply to: Cubs thread #76488
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    The Cubs have a trio of $20M starters, plus Quintana and Hendricks. That’s their five, I would have to assume.

    If Darvish can’t go, then they default to Chatwood or Mike Montgomery — one of the highly underrated utility pitchers in all the majors.

    So I don’t see either the budget or compelling motivation for Kluber. And besides all that, I cannot imagine the smart Indian front office falling for a trade like that. Ian Happ is a very good bench piece, but that’s all; not enough bat to start. And Fat Boy is a platoon bat with no defensive position, which should hold very little appeal for a team with a $20M designated hitter already in the fold in Encarnacion.

    in reply to: 2019 closer/relievers thread – Miller + ? #76478
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    Reyes
    Hicks
    Hudson
    Gant
    Brebbia
    Ponce
    Gomber (L)
    Leone
    Gallegos
    Shreve (L)
    Isn’t this enough to make a decent pen?”

    I’m partial to homegrown guys, but unfortunately I think it isn’t, cranny. I think it would very likely be a repeat of 2018, where the club scrambles all year to try and figure out who really belongs in what role — and in the meantime, games are being lost late. It’s okay to scramble a little, maybe for the first couple of months. But not all year.

    On top of which, they might need Gant, or Ponce, or Hudson, or Gomber, to make spot starts. In fact, we can be pretty sure that at least one or two of them will have to do so at some point. The potential needs of the rotation are definitely a factor in all this.

    But even if all of those swingman types stay in the bullpen all season, for me that hypothetical pen above reads like a list of guys who should battle for the 6th/7th inning role. It has nobody in it — except possibly Brebbia — who has pitched well in more than one MLB season. (And I’m frankly reluctant to count Brebbia, since his MLB single-season inning totals are relatively modest, at 52 and 51.)

    I like Brebbia, I like him for middle relief. He could be solid in that role going forward. But if there is any chance that John Brebbia is the best relief pitcher on your roster, you are in terrible trouble. And I believe that is where the Cards are right now.

    Sorry to be such a sourpuss, cranny. And on a Friday no less.

    in reply to: 2019 closer/relievers thread – Miller + ? #76477
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    “I am curious why people think Taylor Rogers is available in any trade for JMart. Does anybody remember the Craig Kimbrel trade? Aroldis Chapman? Andrew Miller?”

    Speaking just for myself, I suggested taking a bad contract off of the Twins’ hands, and also including a prospect in the trade. And Jose Martinez has an MLB lifetime 130 wRC+, and makes no money. I am curious why so many people seem to think he has limited appeal as a DH.

    Also, Taylor Rogers has very nearly none of the prestige that Kimbrel or Chapman or Miller possessed when they were traded. Because he’s not a closer, because he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts, because he lacks a lengthy track record of MLB dominance, because he was never a big prospect and isn’t young now, and finally, well, maybe he’s a little undervalued partly because he’s a Minnesota Twin. Hasn’t performed on the “big stage” so to speak.

    “Since Minnesota is trying to win a winnable division…”

    If Minnesota won’t trade, if they’re really trying to win their division (or at least take a shot at the wildcard) I think they’re making a big mistake, but that’s obviously their choice.

    As for the A.L. Central being “winnable,” I don’t know what to say to this. I can only assume that you’re kidding. Cleveland will win that division by 15-20 games, if not more. They would have done so in 2018, but were bad in extra innings/one-run games, where there’s a significant element of luck. The Injuns outscored their opponents by 170 runs in 2018, and they have a great multi-superstar core to fill in around. They will run roughshod over that division for at least the next two years.

    Minny might win 86-88 games if Buxton suddenly actualizes and a few other things go right. And almost nothing goes wrong.

    in reply to: Paul Goldschmidt Thread #76471
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    Q: “C’mon, let’s be realistic. Yes, it looks like Fowler will open the season there, but if he doesn’t perform, he will be replaced at some point. Why are so many so gloomy?”

    A: “Residual damage from the Matheny era, must be.”

    Matheny was the one who benched Fowler beginning June 12, in favor of Bader. Fowler started just 11 games over the next 5 weeks.

    Shildt benched Bader for Fowler, as soon as he took over. Fowler then started 15 of the next 17 games. Then Fowler got injured, and the Cards went 32-20 the rest of the way.

    This is why I do not trust Shildt to be smart about Fowler. Because he wasn’t remotely smart in 2018.

    in reply to: Bryce Harper thread #76345
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    “It’d be like you and I swapping DVDs and you give me three seasons of Two and a Half Men that you haven’t watched in several years, while I give you season 2 of The Office. Sure, maybe you only got one year, but *you* won’t regret the deal.”

    Is three years of Two and a Half Men worth the same as 7 1/2 years of one man? Like say, The Prisoner? (One man, but very high EAR — Entertainment Above Replacement.)

    I did like your analogy, Mr. Lankford. Very well done.

    in reply to: 2019 closer/relievers thread – Miller + ? #76337
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    No free agent relievers for me, please. Not unless it’s a Final Boss type of guy — someone relatively unknown, and cheap as the Dollar Store. I say go big for Kikuchi, though, as he could relieve or start in 2019, then slide into the rotation for the remaining years of his contract after Mikolas & Wacha depart.

    A 2020 rotation of Carlos Martinez, Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes, Yusei Kikuchi, and Dakota Hudson sounds pretty good to me. Gant and Gomber for the safety net.

    Anyway, an alternative would be to package Jose Martinez and a good-not-great prospect to the Twins for overpaid backup backstop Castro (there’s your lefty bench bat, if you have to have one) plus solid southpaw Taylor Rogers for the pen. Twins get salary relief, a fun fun cheap cheap top 3 DH, and a prospect. Cards get a bench guy that Shildt might actually play 4 or 5 times a month, instead of burning Yadi out by mid-August.

    If not Rogers, maybe Andrew Chafin. If not him, perhaps Caleb Frare. I don’t even care of the bullpen is nothing but righties, as long as they can get both lefty and righty batters out. But whatever happens, let’s get relievers who are IN their primes this winter, and not multiple years past it. Let’s learn from the past.

    in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2017-2018 #76322
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    “Get Bumgarner and Britton.”

    Only if they come with a time machine.
    I don’t want anyone who is multiple years past his prime. Especially pitchers, and most especially pitchers who will cost a lot in terms of talent or shekels.

    Maybe I’m paranoid. Maybe the recent Redbird history with Cecil, Gregerson, and Holland has pretty much ruined me for future pitching acquisitions. But I’d much rather the Cards take on mid-sized unwanted contracts while trading for relievers in their mid-20’s, and in free agency pay for starters not already on the downslope — like young Mr. Kikuchi.

    in reply to: Bryce Harper thread #76320
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    “2017- Fowler (5 years)
    2018- Ozuna (2 years)
    2019- Goldschmidt (1 year)
    That’s why.
    I love Goldschmidt…. but not for a 1 year rental.”

    “So you are saying you wanted another Fowler deal?”

    That’s so mean, Brian. Reminds me of this.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvKPaIWz5xk

    in reply to: Paul Goldschmidt Thread #76168
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    If he leaves after one year, the Cards get a high draft pick, and simply re-install Carp back at first base. Then Gyorko takes over at third. Or maybe Elhuris Montero is such a phenom that he’s ready for the MLB hot corner at 21. Stranger things have happened. Goldy leaving would not gut the team, not at all.

    It would merely leave the Birds with the same personnel that just finished 4th in the N.L. in runs per game, and 2nd in road OPS behind only the pennant-winning Dodgers. Carp and Yadi would be old, of course. But Bader, O’Neill, and DeJong would be in their primes in 2020.

    So I don’t think the calculus changes much, depending on whether Goldy sticks around or not. If he goes after 2019, you probably got a great season for cheap money, and a draft pick afterwards. If he stays, you’ll be paying full market value for a player in his early 30’s already — sometimes a fair deal but very rarely a bargain for the buyer, folks.

    in reply to: Bryce Harper thread #76160
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    I don’t get the need for a lefty bench bat. If your righty bats can hit righty pitching okay, why go out of your way to add a lefty hitter?

    Jose Martinez has an .813 career OPS against righties, and Tyler O’Neill’s was .804 in the majors last year, after a 1.066 in AAA. (That’s pretty good, isn’t it? A 1.066 OPS? I mean, he was better against lefties, that’s true. But 1.066 is alright for your weaker side.)

    Gyorko and Munoz are both over .700 against rights, for their careers. I mean, unless you can find a true righty-mashing Adam Lind type, why bother? For that matter, just bring Adam Lind out of retirement! (Of course, then lefties will exploit the crap out of him. And he won’t help you one iota in the field or on the bases.)

    So, other than the nebulous (and perhaps valueless) virtue of “balance”, what is the selling point of the lefty bench bat?

    I love, love, love that they’re out of the Harper race. Wish I could get the same reassurance about Moustakas. (There are several markedly better players than Harper, who are quite possibly going to be free agents over the next couple of years. Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant. Probably more I can’t name off the top of my head. No need to cry over spilled Bryce.)

    in reply to: Paul Goldschmidt Thread #76151
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    v. LHP: Carp, Bader, Goldy, Ozuna, O’Neill, Yadi, DeJong, Wong, pitcher

    v. RHP: Carp, Wong, Goldy, Ozuna, DeJong, O’Neill, Yadi, Bader, pitcher

    Have to have Bader near the top v. lefties. Anywhere from 2nd to cleanup. And DeJong has hit righties better than southpaws for his career thus far. Notice also how a fast guy will hit 8th all the time. Good for the pitcher bunting guys over, and also more RBI chances for the top of the lineup.

    Now just trade a very good-but-not-great prospect to Minnesota for Taylor Rogers and Jason Castro. Cards get a quality backup backstop who makes too much money, plus a solid southpaw for the bullpen. (Might have to take Addison Reed’s contract as part of the bargain.)

    in reply to: Paul Goldschmidt Thread #76136
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    Thanks for the kind sentiments, Mr. Lankford. I cannot dispute any of your observations about the trade, or team-building in general, really.

    And I’m already warming more to the deal, having glanced over Goldy’s career splits. As a batter he looks like a bigger better version of Yadi Molina, i.e., a true actual clutch hitter — but of course on a grander scale.

    Goldschmidt, career:

    Bases empty .870 OPS
    Men on base 1.000
    RISP……… 1.025

    High leverage .968
    Medium .941
    Low .902

    And finally, Goldy is still killing “power pitching”, unlike a certain right fielder we all know. So there’s no marker for age-related slider-batspeed decline yet for Goldschmidt. Heck, I’m even starting to think that an extension isn’t a completely terrible idea, if it’s only guaranteed through age 36 or so.

    The more I think on it, it really is one of those “old school” Cardinal type moves we’ve seen over the past 15-20 years. Maybe it’s the Christmas spirit, but my partial humbuggishness is fading by the minute.

    in reply to: Paul Goldschmidt Thread #76122
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    Apropos of nothing, three weeks ago the Cards were 18-1 to win the World Series. Three days ago it was 20-1. Three minutes ago it was 23-1. (Cubs are 10-1, Brewers 14-1.)

    I guess Bovada doesn’t like Paul Goldschmidt much. 😉

    You see, even Vegas wants you to fix the bullpen, Mo!

    in reply to: Paul Goldschmidt Thread #76114
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    I’m ambivalent. is it possible to be extremely ambivalent? Twelve months ago, it would have been a fine deal for the Cards. Two seasons of Goldy, great!

    But one year of Goldy — or worse, he gets signed to a massive albatross of a contract extension that runs into his late 30’s — for Carson Kelly plus Weaver plus multiple sweeteners? Definitely improves the team for 2019, of course. But for every single year beyond that, it makes things at least a little worse.

    Now maybe Knizner will really, really blossom for Memphis this year. And maybe I’m wrong that Luke Weaver was pitch-tipping, and will be a #1/2 starter once a team fixes that problem. We’ll see.

    Goldy’s great, and the Cards will still have Gyorko in case Carp blows his arm out playing 3rd base. So that’s a good thing.

    But I still say what I’ve always said. The 2018 lineup was objectively very good. So was the rotation. Therefore the place to invest both money and prospect talent was and is the bullpen. Let’s hope that Kikuchi is the next move, followed by a reliever or two.

    Also, Welcome Mr. Goldschmidt.

    in reply to: 2019 TCN top 50 prospect list countdown #76067
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    “Just not a lot to say about guys like Sosa and Schrock who are AAAA guys at best.”

    Yeah, I share your Schrock pessimism, Mr. Lankford. For me, Max had probably the most disappointing 2018 season of all Redbird minor league position players.

    Sosa though, I still like just fine as a future utility guy. At age 22 he had better health than in recent years, and it showed at the plate. In 450 AB’s split pretty evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .270 with 30 doubles and 12 homers, both career highs. Edmundo had some weird H/R splits this year. But if we want to be optimistic, check out his road numbers in AAA:

    30 games, .314/.361/.533, and an acceptable 8/20 BB/K. (Low walk rates have been his Achilles heel as a pro, in addition to injuries.) He doesn’t turn 23 until early March, so obviously he was young for the PCL.

    I have him 12th in the StL farm system, and roughly 220th overall. Like Arozarena & Urias & Lane Thomas, Sosa’s 2019 Memphis season should tell us a great deal about his future.

    in reply to: MLB announces pace of play changes #76063
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    “You should be able to position your players as you see fit. Don’t like it, hit where they ain’t.”

    Amen, 315. Don’t like the shift? Learn to bunt. If pitchers can learn to bunt, regular hitters can. (The mistake that John Mabry made with Matt Adams, was that Mabry tried to train Adams to slap liners and hard grounders to the opposite field, and that is extremely difficult to do on command, unless you’re Rod Carew or Tony Gwynn. Bunting is much, much easier.)

    The whippersnappers out there, and I guess Rob Manfred is somehow one of them, do not seem to understand that the shift was always a possibility. It’s not like nobody was ever shifted on before — just ask Ted Williams’ chipped frozen head when he thaws out. Despite what you might read at Fangraphs, the “analytics generation” didn’t invent shifting because they’re just so much smarter than all those who came before them.

    The reason there was little or no shifting for decades, was that even the sluggers like Mike Schmidt and Steve Garvey most notably, possessed at least a rudimentary ability to drop a bunt down — if you played them waaay back at third base, or gave them the entire left side of the infield.

    Ban the shift? Learn to bunt, lazybones.

    in reply to: Bryce Harper thread #76060
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    Bob, do you think there’s any chance that the bullpen can improve naturally? That is, without making a bunch of additions? With better health from the expected rotation, we could see Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon and Reyes added to the pen. Better health from Leone (who has been very good at times), and a bit of maturity from Hicks and Hudson…it has to be at least within the realm of possibility that they could be average or better through some better luck, right?

    Good question, Mr. Lankford.
    I’m almost sure the bullpen would indeed improve naturally — just like 33-year-old Dexter Fowler will undoubtedly bounce part of the way back to his old self in 2019.

    But improve from worst or nearly worst in the league, all the way to average? I think that’s unreasonably optimistic. (For both the bullpen and Dexter.)

    The Cards had zero relievers in 2018 who posted a sub-3.00 ERA over at least 35 innings. Every other team in the N.L. Central had between 3 and 5 such pitchers. Heck, the last place Reds had 3 guys with a sub-2.60 and 60+ innings! The Cardinals do not have a single excellent reliever on their roster. None.

    On the other hand, there are non-competitive American League teams with excellent young relievers, and bad contracts the Cards could take off their hands. Baltimore has Mychal Givens and Paul Fry, and bad contracts in Mark Trumbo and especially Alex Cobb. Detroit has flamethrowing phenom Joe Jimenez who is just starting to mature as a major leaguer, and they also have Jordan Zimmermann’s really rotten contract. The Twins have southpaw bullpenner Taylor Rogers and the underwater contracts of Jason Castro and Addison Reed.

    I feel strongly that The Cards should sign Yusei Kikuchi (he’ll be rotation or bullpen, however things shake out in Spring Training), then leverage their remaining “Harper money” by taking on some portion of 2 or 3 of the aforementioned bad contracts, in order to acquire several years of control of multiple excellent relief pitchers. By taking on bad contracts, they theoretically wouldn’t have to give up much in the way of prospects either. (Or if the Cards were to surrender meaningful talent, then their trade partner would eat more of the bad contract dollars. Either way is fine.)

    They tried a patch-as-you-go approach last year, supplemented by some over-the-hill free agents. It was objectively an abject disaster. It’s time to go for relief talent that’s in or entering its prime. Not big names and big price tags on the wrong side of 30, like Miller or Britton or Kimbrel.

    in reply to: Bryce Harper thread #76050
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    After three straight years of the Cards missing the playoffs, why would anyone think they need to improve in just one area – whether right field or relief? Is there some reason to “put all their eggs in one basket”, to use BDW III’s term?

    Before the offseason began, I was in favor of adding Donaldson, Kikuchi, and 2 or 3 relievers via trade. But I was very much against Harper, Machado, Moustakas, and pretty much every other position player, because none of them offered the heft of plausible upgrade that Donaldson did, on such a short contract, to boot.

    But now that Donaldson is off the table, I do think the Cards should put all their eggs in the bullpen basket. Because of the principle I cited a few posts ago:

    Improving any aspect of a baseball team from very good to great is difficult and expensive. That’s what the Birds are trying to do if they focus on the lineup.

    Improving from rotten to merely average is much easier and much cheaper. That’s what the Cards need to do with the wretched bullpen.

    Any offense can be improved upon, at any time. But this team has one real *need*, and that’s the bullpen. Dead last in the N.L. in Win Probability Added in 2018. Third from last in ERA. Awful first half, awful second half, and a 5.09 September ERA. They NEED an overhaul in the bullpen, not a star bat.

    in reply to: Bryce Harper thread #75981
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    Statements like these drive me nuts. When talking about $/Win, that is a load of ______. Assembling a baseball team is PORTFOLIO THEORY, it is not INDIVIDUAL ASSET PRICING.

    You’ve introduced some investment/economics jargon, which is fine. But if you would like to rebut anything I said, about the Cardinals, Bryce Harper, or how the St. Louis team needs to build their talent base, please do so with specifics. Thanks.

    The Cardinals can spend right up to the luxury tax and still be profitable.

    I don’t care how much profit the Cards make, not even a little. But I am certain that they operate within a payroll budget every single year. And thus, it is imperative that the club be efficient, in order to maximize wins. That’s all I care about, maximizing wins — but they cannot do that, unless they are generally efficient with their resources. Talent accrual only works when you don’t overpay.

    Here’s what I mean. Let’s say tomorrow’s Post-Dispatch headline reads: “Cards trade for Mike Trout! Contract extension of ten years included as part of deal!” Best of all possible news, right?

    But then you read the article and find out that the Cards traded Flaherty, Reyes, Hicks, Mikolas, Bader, O’Neill, and DeJong, to acquire Trout. And the contract extension is for 10 years and $900M.

    As exciting and great as Trout is, this would be a terribly self-destructive overpay by the Cards, in terms of both talent and money.

    Take your WORST positions, and try to upgrade them EVERY year. Last year, the WORST position was right field. DUMP DEXTER FOWLER.

    Couldn’t agree more, about dumping Fowler. But as mentioned in my earlier remarks, Harper does not upgrade RF by nearly enough, not when compared to either Tyler O’Neill or Jose Martinez, who both look to be worth at least 2 WAR this year, and in the case of O’Neill quite possibly much more than that.

    Then beyond this season, after Ozuna departs there’s more 2+ WAR outfield talent down on the farm. Dylan Carlson in particular.

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