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“Gyorko, right now, I believe is quality depth. Carpenter will need rest. He can platoon a bit with Wong.
Really what we need to do is cut Fowler & Cecil (the only 2 players on the Cardinals with full NTC’s by the way).”I don’t always agree with C-2016, but I very enthusiastically second all of the above thoughts. And I also agree with him re Derek Dietrich for lefty bat off the bench. Dietrich is the same age and same general talent level/career track record as Marwin Gonzalez, but will cost a lot less than Marwin, I’m pretty sure, due to Marwin’s flukey 2017 monster year, and his national publicity arising from the Astros’ success of late.
Moreover, DD might provide substantially more hitting value than it superficially appears, since his home/road split was so crazily skewed while playing for the Marlins. With 1,000 – 1,100 trips to the plate both home and away, here are the nutty numbers.
Home .234/.319/.377
Road .272/.351/.465That’s an .816 road OPS, versus .696 at home. I apologize if this has been mentioned on any other threads. But even if it has, it probably bears repeating anyway.
I am STILL saying that the bullpen should be priority number one, and two, and three. But as long as people think that we need a versatile lefty bench bat, the Cards may as well get one with upside.
“Oh, he (Jose Martinez) has value. But there are only about 3 teams that need a DH that don’t have one. And you can get a DH for a few million bucks.
Good relievers > DH”Prior to the 2017 season the Indians gave 34-year-old DH Edwin Encarnacion a 3-year deal for $60M coming off a 134 OPS+ season. Jose Martinez has a lifetime 128 OPS+. And he’s a long way from 34, and he makes no dough.
If an A.L. team doesn’t see him as a terrific opportunity, then they’re nuts. And maybe they are, I don’t know. But Jose at his current batting line as a 150 games DH is much more valuable than 95-99% of even the good MLB relievers.
The Cubs have a trio of $20M starters, plus Quintana and Hendricks. That’s their five, I would have to assume.
If Darvish can’t go, then they default to Chatwood or Mike Montgomery — one of the highly underrated utility pitchers in all the majors.
So I don’t see either the budget or compelling motivation for Kluber. And besides all that, I cannot imagine the smart Indian front office falling for a trade like that. Ian Happ is a very good bench piece, but that’s all; not enough bat to start. And Fat Boy is a platoon bat with no defensive position, which should hold very little appeal for a team with a $20M designated hitter already in the fold in Encarnacion.
“Reyes
Hicks
Hudson
Gant
Brebbia
Ponce
Gomber (L)
Leone
Gallegos
Shreve (L)
Isn’t this enough to make a decent pen?”I’m partial to homegrown guys, but unfortunately I think it isn’t, cranny. I think it would very likely be a repeat of 2018, where the club scrambles all year to try and figure out who really belongs in what role — and in the meantime, games are being lost late. It’s okay to scramble a little, maybe for the first couple of months. But not all year.
On top of which, they might need Gant, or Ponce, or Hudson, or Gomber, to make spot starts. In fact, we can be pretty sure that at least one or two of them will have to do so at some point. The potential needs of the rotation are definitely a factor in all this.
But even if all of those swingman types stay in the bullpen all season, for me that hypothetical pen above reads like a list of guys who should battle for the 6th/7th inning role. It has nobody in it — except possibly Brebbia — who has pitched well in more than one MLB season. (And I’m frankly reluctant to count Brebbia, since his MLB single-season inning totals are relatively modest, at 52 and 51.)
I like Brebbia, I like him for middle relief. He could be solid in that role going forward. But if there is any chance that John Brebbia is the best relief pitcher on your roster, you are in terrible trouble. And I believe that is where the Cards are right now.
Sorry to be such a sourpuss, cranny. And on a Friday no less.
“I am curious why people think Taylor Rogers is available in any trade for JMart. Does anybody remember the Craig Kimbrel trade? Aroldis Chapman? Andrew Miller?”
Speaking just for myself, I suggested taking a bad contract off of the Twins’ hands, and also including a prospect in the trade. And Jose Martinez has an MLB lifetime 130 wRC+, and makes no money. I am curious why so many people seem to think he has limited appeal as a DH.
Also, Taylor Rogers has very nearly none of the prestige that Kimbrel or Chapman or Miller possessed when they were traded. Because he’s not a closer, because he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts, because he lacks a lengthy track record of MLB dominance, because he was never a big prospect and isn’t young now, and finally, well, maybe he’s a little undervalued partly because he’s a Minnesota Twin. Hasn’t performed on the “big stage” so to speak.
“Since Minnesota is trying to win a winnable division…”
If Minnesota won’t trade, if they’re really trying to win their division (or at least take a shot at the wildcard) I think they’re making a big mistake, but that’s obviously their choice.
As for the A.L. Central being “winnable,” I don’t know what to say to this. I can only assume that you’re kidding. Cleveland will win that division by 15-20 games, if not more. They would have done so in 2018, but were bad in extra innings/one-run games, where there’s a significant element of luck. The Injuns outscored their opponents by 170 runs in 2018, and they have a great multi-superstar core to fill in around. They will run roughshod over that division for at least the next two years.
Minny might win 86-88 games if Buxton suddenly actualizes and a few other things go right. And almost nothing goes wrong.
Q: “C’mon, let’s be realistic. Yes, it looks like Fowler will open the season there, but if he doesn’t perform, he will be replaced at some point. Why are so many so gloomy?”
A: “Residual damage from the Matheny era, must be.”Matheny was the one who benched Fowler beginning June 12, in favor of Bader. Fowler started just 11 games over the next 5 weeks.
Shildt benched Bader for Fowler, as soon as he took over. Fowler then started 15 of the next 17 games. Then Fowler got injured, and the Cards went 32-20 the rest of the way.
This is why I do not trust Shildt to be smart about Fowler. Because he wasn’t remotely smart in 2018.
“It’d be like you and I swapping DVDs and you give me three seasons of Two and a Half Men that you haven’t watched in several years, while I give you season 2 of The Office. Sure, maybe you only got one year, but *you* won’t regret the deal.”
Is three years of Two and a Half Men worth the same as 7 1/2 years of one man? Like say, The Prisoner? (One man, but very high EAR — Entertainment Above Replacement.)
I did like your analogy, Mr. Lankford. Very well done.
No free agent relievers for me, please. Not unless it’s a Final Boss type of guy — someone relatively unknown, and cheap as the Dollar Store. I say go big for Kikuchi, though, as he could relieve or start in 2019, then slide into the rotation for the remaining years of his contract after Mikolas & Wacha depart.
A 2020 rotation of Carlos Martinez, Jack Flaherty, Alex Reyes, Yusei Kikuchi, and Dakota Hudson sounds pretty good to me. Gant and Gomber for the safety net.
Anyway, an alternative would be to package Jose Martinez and a good-not-great prospect to the Twins for overpaid backup backstop Castro (there’s your lefty bench bat, if you have to have one) plus solid southpaw Taylor Rogers for the pen. Twins get salary relief, a fun fun cheap cheap top 3 DH, and a prospect. Cards get a bench guy that Shildt might actually play 4 or 5 times a month, instead of burning Yadi out by mid-August.
If not Rogers, maybe Andrew Chafin. If not him, perhaps Caleb Frare. I don’t even care of the bullpen is nothing but righties, as long as they can get both lefty and righty batters out. But whatever happens, let’s get relievers who are IN their primes this winter, and not multiple years past it. Let’s learn from the past.
“Get Bumgarner and Britton.”
Only if they come with a time machine.
I don’t want anyone who is multiple years past his prime. Especially pitchers, and most especially pitchers who will cost a lot in terms of talent or shekels.Maybe I’m paranoid. Maybe the recent Redbird history with Cecil, Gregerson, and Holland has pretty much ruined me for future pitching acquisitions. But I’d much rather the Cards take on mid-sized unwanted contracts while trading for relievers in their mid-20’s, and in free agency pay for starters not already on the downslope — like young Mr. Kikuchi.
“2017- Fowler (5 years)
2018- Ozuna (2 years)
2019- Goldschmidt (1 year)
That’s why.
I love Goldschmidt…. but not for a 1 year rental.”“So you are saying you wanted another Fowler deal?”
That’s so mean, Brian. Reminds me of this.
If he leaves after one year, the Cards get a high draft pick, and simply re-install Carp back at first base. Then Gyorko takes over at third. Or maybe Elhuris Montero is such a phenom that he’s ready for the MLB hot corner at 21. Stranger things have happened. Goldy leaving would not gut the team, not at all.
It would merely leave the Birds with the same personnel that just finished 4th in the N.L. in runs per game, and 2nd in road OPS behind only the pennant-winning Dodgers. Carp and Yadi would be old, of course. But Bader, O’Neill, and DeJong would be in their primes in 2020.
So I don’t think the calculus changes much, depending on whether Goldy sticks around or not. If he goes after 2019, you probably got a great season for cheap money, and a draft pick afterwards. If he stays, you’ll be paying full market value for a player in his early 30’s already — sometimes a fair deal but very rarely a bargain for the buyer, folks.
I don’t get the need for a lefty bench bat. If your righty bats can hit righty pitching okay, why go out of your way to add a lefty hitter?
Jose Martinez has an .813 career OPS against righties, and Tyler O’Neill’s was .804 in the majors last year, after a 1.066 in AAA. (That’s pretty good, isn’t it? A 1.066 OPS? I mean, he was better against lefties, that’s true. But 1.066 is alright for your weaker side.)
Gyorko and Munoz are both over .700 against rights, for their careers. I mean, unless you can find a true righty-mashing Adam Lind type, why bother? For that matter, just bring Adam Lind out of retirement! (Of course, then lefties will exploit the crap out of him. And he won’t help you one iota in the field or on the bases.)
So, other than the nebulous (and perhaps valueless) virtue of “balance”, what is the selling point of the lefty bench bat?
I love, love, love that they’re out of the Harper race. Wish I could get the same reassurance about Moustakas. (There are several markedly better players than Harper, who are quite possibly going to be free agents over the next couple of years. Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant. Probably more I can’t name off the top of my head. No need to cry over spilled Bryce.)
v. LHP: Carp, Bader, Goldy, Ozuna, O’Neill, Yadi, DeJong, Wong, pitcher
v. RHP: Carp, Wong, Goldy, Ozuna, DeJong, O’Neill, Yadi, Bader, pitcher
Have to have Bader near the top v. lefties. Anywhere from 2nd to cleanup. And DeJong has hit righties better than southpaws for his career thus far. Notice also how a fast guy will hit 8th all the time. Good for the pitcher bunting guys over, and also more RBI chances for the top of the lineup.
Now just trade a very good-but-not-great prospect to Minnesota for Taylor Rogers and Jason Castro. Cards get a quality backup backstop who makes too much money, plus a solid southpaw for the bullpen. (Might have to take Addison Reed’s contract as part of the bargain.)
Thanks for the kind sentiments, Mr. Lankford. I cannot dispute any of your observations about the trade, or team-building in general, really.
And I’m already warming more to the deal, having glanced over Goldy’s career splits. As a batter he looks like a bigger better version of Yadi Molina, i.e., a true actual clutch hitter — but of course on a grander scale.
Goldschmidt, career:
Bases empty .870 OPS
Men on base 1.000
RISP……… 1.025High leverage .968
Medium .941
Low .902And finally, Goldy is still killing “power pitching”, unlike a certain right fielder we all know. So there’s no marker for age-related slider-batspeed decline yet for Goldschmidt. Heck, I’m even starting to think that an extension isn’t a completely terrible idea, if it’s only guaranteed through age 36 or so.
The more I think on it, it really is one of those “old school” Cardinal type moves we’ve seen over the past 15-20 years. Maybe it’s the Christmas spirit, but my partial humbuggishness is fading by the minute.
Apropos of nothing, three weeks ago the Cards were 18-1 to win the World Series. Three days ago it was 20-1. Three minutes ago it was 23-1. (Cubs are 10-1, Brewers 14-1.)
I guess Bovada doesn’t like Paul Goldschmidt much. 😉
You see, even Vegas wants you to fix the bullpen, Mo!
I’m ambivalent. is it possible to be extremely ambivalent? Twelve months ago, it would have been a fine deal for the Cards. Two seasons of Goldy, great!
But one year of Goldy — or worse, he gets signed to a massive albatross of a contract extension that runs into his late 30’s — for Carson Kelly plus Weaver plus multiple sweeteners? Definitely improves the team for 2019, of course. But for every single year beyond that, it makes things at least a little worse.
Now maybe Knizner will really, really blossom for Memphis this year. And maybe I’m wrong that Luke Weaver was pitch-tipping, and will be a #1/2 starter once a team fixes that problem. We’ll see.
Goldy’s great, and the Cards will still have Gyorko in case Carp blows his arm out playing 3rd base. So that’s a good thing.
But I still say what I’ve always said. The 2018 lineup was objectively very good. So was the rotation. Therefore the place to invest both money and prospect talent was and is the bullpen. Let’s hope that Kikuchi is the next move, followed by a reliever or two.
Also, Welcome Mr. Goldschmidt.
“Just not a lot to say about guys like Sosa and Schrock who are AAAA guys at best.”
Yeah, I share your Schrock pessimism, Mr. Lankford. For me, Max had probably the most disappointing 2018 season of all Redbird minor league position players.
Sosa though, I still like just fine as a future utility guy. At age 22 he had better health than in recent years, and it showed at the plate. In 450 AB’s split pretty evenly between Double-A and Triple-A, he hit .270 with 30 doubles and 12 homers, both career highs. Edmundo had some weird H/R splits this year. But if we want to be optimistic, check out his road numbers in AAA:
30 games, .314/.361/.533, and an acceptable 8/20 BB/K. (Low walk rates have been his Achilles heel as a pro, in addition to injuries.) He doesn’t turn 23 until early March, so obviously he was young for the PCL.
I have him 12th in the StL farm system, and roughly 220th overall. Like Arozarena & Urias & Lane Thomas, Sosa’s 2019 Memphis season should tell us a great deal about his future.
“You should be able to position your players as you see fit. Don’t like it, hit where they ain’t.”
Amen, 315. Don’t like the shift? Learn to bunt. If pitchers can learn to bunt, regular hitters can. (The mistake that John Mabry made with Matt Adams, was that Mabry tried to train Adams to slap liners and hard grounders to the opposite field, and that is extremely difficult to do on command, unless you’re Rod Carew or Tony Gwynn. Bunting is much, much easier.)
The whippersnappers out there, and I guess Rob Manfred is somehow one of them, do not seem to understand that the shift was always a possibility. It’s not like nobody was ever shifted on before — just ask Ted Williams’ chipped frozen head when he thaws out. Despite what you might read at Fangraphs, the “analytics generation” didn’t invent shifting because they’re just so much smarter than all those who came before them.
The reason there was little or no shifting for decades, was that even the sluggers like Mike Schmidt and Steve Garvey most notably, possessed at least a rudimentary ability to drop a bunt down — if you played them waaay back at third base, or gave them the entire left side of the infield.
Ban the shift? Learn to bunt, lazybones.
Bob, do you think there’s any chance that the bullpen can improve naturally? That is, without making a bunch of additions? With better health from the expected rotation, we could see Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon and Reyes added to the pen. Better health from Leone (who has been very good at times), and a bit of maturity from Hicks and Hudson…it has to be at least within the realm of possibility that they could be average or better through some better luck, right?
Good question, Mr. Lankford.
I’m almost sure the bullpen would indeed improve naturally — just like 33-year-old Dexter Fowler will undoubtedly bounce part of the way back to his old self in 2019.But improve from worst or nearly worst in the league, all the way to average? I think that’s unreasonably optimistic. (For both the bullpen and Dexter.)
The Cards had zero relievers in 2018 who posted a sub-3.00 ERA over at least 35 innings. Every other team in the N.L. Central had between 3 and 5 such pitchers. Heck, the last place Reds had 3 guys with a sub-2.60 and 60+ innings! The Cardinals do not have a single excellent reliever on their roster. None.
On the other hand, there are non-competitive American League teams with excellent young relievers, and bad contracts the Cards could take off their hands. Baltimore has Mychal Givens and Paul Fry, and bad contracts in Mark Trumbo and especially Alex Cobb. Detroit has flamethrowing phenom Joe Jimenez who is just starting to mature as a major leaguer, and they also have Jordan Zimmermann’s really rotten contract. The Twins have southpaw bullpenner Taylor Rogers and the underwater contracts of Jason Castro and Addison Reed.
I feel strongly that The Cards should sign Yusei Kikuchi (he’ll be rotation or bullpen, however things shake out in Spring Training), then leverage their remaining “Harper money” by taking on some portion of 2 or 3 of the aforementioned bad contracts, in order to acquire several years of control of multiple excellent relief pitchers. By taking on bad contracts, they theoretically wouldn’t have to give up much in the way of prospects either. (Or if the Cards were to surrender meaningful talent, then their trade partner would eat more of the bad contract dollars. Either way is fine.)
They tried a patch-as-you-go approach last year, supplemented by some over-the-hill free agents. It was objectively an abject disaster. It’s time to go for relief talent that’s in or entering its prime. Not big names and big price tags on the wrong side of 30, like Miller or Britton or Kimbrel.
After three straight years of the Cards missing the playoffs, why would anyone think they need to improve in just one area – whether right field or relief? Is there some reason to “put all their eggs in one basket”, to use BDW III’s term?
Before the offseason began, I was in favor of adding Donaldson, Kikuchi, and 2 or 3 relievers via trade. But I was very much against Harper, Machado, Moustakas, and pretty much every other position player, because none of them offered the heft of plausible upgrade that Donaldson did, on such a short contract, to boot.
But now that Donaldson is off the table, I do think the Cards should put all their eggs in the bullpen basket. Because of the principle I cited a few posts ago:
Improving any aspect of a baseball team from very good to great is difficult and expensive. That’s what the Birds are trying to do if they focus on the lineup.
Improving from rotten to merely average is much easier and much cheaper. That’s what the Cards need to do with the wretched bullpen.
Any offense can be improved upon, at any time. But this team has one real *need*, and that’s the bullpen. Dead last in the N.L. in Win Probability Added in 2018. Third from last in ERA. Awful first half, awful second half, and a 5.09 September ERA. They NEED an overhaul in the bullpen, not a star bat.
Statements like these drive me nuts. When talking about $/Win, that is a load of ______. Assembling a baseball team is PORTFOLIO THEORY, it is not INDIVIDUAL ASSET PRICING.
You’ve introduced some investment/economics jargon, which is fine. But if you would like to rebut anything I said, about the Cardinals, Bryce Harper, or how the St. Louis team needs to build their talent base, please do so with specifics. Thanks.
The Cardinals can spend right up to the luxury tax and still be profitable.
I don’t care how much profit the Cards make, not even a little. But I am certain that they operate within a payroll budget every single year. And thus, it is imperative that the club be efficient, in order to maximize wins. That’s all I care about, maximizing wins — but they cannot do that, unless they are generally efficient with their resources. Talent accrual only works when you don’t overpay.
Here’s what I mean. Let’s say tomorrow’s Post-Dispatch headline reads: “Cards trade for Mike Trout! Contract extension of ten years included as part of deal!” Best of all possible news, right?
But then you read the article and find out that the Cards traded Flaherty, Reyes, Hicks, Mikolas, Bader, O’Neill, and DeJong, to acquire Trout. And the contract extension is for 10 years and $900M.
As exciting and great as Trout is, this would be a terribly self-destructive overpay by the Cards, in terms of both talent and money.
Take your WORST positions, and try to upgrade them EVERY year. Last year, the WORST position was right field. DUMP DEXTER FOWLER.
Couldn’t agree more, about dumping Fowler. But as mentioned in my earlier remarks, Harper does not upgrade RF by nearly enough, not when compared to either Tyler O’Neill or Jose Martinez, who both look to be worth at least 2 WAR this year, and in the case of O’Neill quite possibly much more than that.
Then beyond this season, after Ozuna departs there’s more 2+ WAR outfield talent down on the farm. Dylan Carlson in particular.
I do not want Harper, not at anything more than $25M per year. He’s been a 4.5 f-WAR player for his career, and 4 WAR at B-Ref. This means that if he is supplanting a 2 WAR player in the outfield, he is only going to be adding 2-2.5 wins per year. That’s a cost of $10-12M per win if you got him for just $25M per year — and we already know that no one is getting Harper for $25M a year.
This is not a small point, about who Harper dislodges from the outfield. Harper might be “worth” the free agent price for some organizations, if he went to a place with a truly rotten MLB outfield and lousy farm system. But neither is remotely the case in St. Louis. (Heck, the Cards have so many average-or-better outfielders both now and for the future, they had to trade three of them away, in Piscotty, Pham, and Grichuk.)
A team at St. Louis’ player payroll level cannot pay more than $10-12M per wins on the open market. It just doesn’t work. They need to be decidedly more efficient than that, as they were when they signed Final Boss and Miles Mikolas. And as they were when they traded Jon Jay for Jedd Gyorko. Those three moves have added victories to the team at a cost of roughly $3M per win upgrade.
Of course, $3M per win upgrade is more of a best case scenario, rather than a realistic standard. Maybe $6-7M per win upgrade would be a plausible goal, on the free agent market. And a Harper contract has no chance whatever of meeting that goal. If the Birds want to go big, really big, they should wait for Trout in two years. Even at $55-60M per year, he might be a relative bargain.
One other thing, is that I honestly don’t understand the premise in the first place, that St. Louis MUST add any offense at all. They were 4th in the N.L. in runs per game at 4.7, and the hitting was actually better than that, because they played in a nasty pitcher’s park.
The St. Louis road OPS was 67 points higher than at home. They homered 47% more often on the road. They doubled/tripled 27% more often. In fact, in the National League only the Dodgers had a higher OPS on the road.
Finally, they scored 5.1 runs per game over the second half, after dumping Mabry/Matheny/Mueller. (They scored just 4.4. per game with M/M/M.) So it’s already at least a very good offensive lineup.
Improving any aspect of a baseball team from very good to great is difficult and expensive. That’s what the Birds are trying to do if they focus on the lineup.
Improving from rotten to merely average is much easier and much cheaper. That’s what the Cards need to do with the wretched bullpen.I have a real good feeling about this young guy. And at 27 he is substantially younger than most MLB free agent pitchers ever are.
In a very general sense, I see a lefty version of Jack Flaherty. Above average velocity for a southpaw, fine slider for a strikeout pitch, and a usable hook. Could be a #2/3 starter for less dough than Mike Leake received 3 years ago. With Boras it should be a pure bidding war — and with this guy you could win a winter bidding war and STILL call it a bargain. Go get him, Mo.
Is there anyplace on the internet for Japanese park factors? If it weren’t for bad luck I’d have had no luck at all, in my searching. Anybody helps me out on this, they go straight to the Nice List, I’m sure of it. (I ask because Kikuchi’s team over the past 4 or 5 years always seems to score lots of runs, and be mediocre or worse in team ERA. So I’m thinking hitter’s park. And that could of course mean that Yusei might be even better than his stellar track record implies.)
Thanks so much for the generous words, Pugs.
When I re-read my posts, I feel they are like life itself. Lengthy and tedious, but punctuated by boredom.
I do try not to sound too strident in my indictments of other so-called prospect evaluators, but I’d rather be blunt and thorough than just scratch surfaces.It would really be something if Malcom Nunez got to Peoria in 2019, but as the song says, one never knows. I get to a few Peoria games every year, and I’m very much looking forward to some of the Redbird talent on the way. Gorman to start the year, and maybe Jhon Torres, perhaps Ivan Herrera, almost certainly Leandro Cedeno. Not a lot of young pitching, I’m afraid. But bats galore.
Take it easy, Pugs.
