[Bob Reed]

I’m not fond of re-animating this thread, however I’m afraid it is necessitated by a recent statement from one of our local scribes. But before discussing that, a quick recap.

This thread began way back on May 13th, when Dexter Fowler had a nightmarish .545 OPS. The participants of this website got it right, as they wanted Fowler to be either shunted into a platoon role, reduced to pinch-hitting exclusively, or traded/released before he could do any more damage to the team. (At VEB someone quite predictably used so-called advanced analytics to “prove” that Fowler was going to be much better any minute, because he’d merely had “bad batted ball luck.” If those folks over there were half as smart as they think they are, they’d be twice as smart as they actually are.)

Anyway Matheny, stoic that he is, stuck with him. He kept him in the starting lineup for another entire month, during which Dexter raised that OPS all the way up to a dreadful .562. That brings us to June 12th, that fateful date.

On June 12th here were the OPS numbers for Redbird outfielders:

Jose Martinez .913
Tommy Pham .786
Tyler O’Neill .768 (He’d been in the minors since the end of May, though, where he had a 1.004 OPS)
Harry Bader .767
Marcell Ozuna .737
Dexter Fowler .562

And so, mercifully, finally, Fowler was benched. It is rumored that on June 12th the expression “better late than never” was spoken more frequently in the St. Louis metropolitan area than on any date since Jeff Fisher’s firing. After starting 48 of the first 64 games of the season, and being quite clearly the 6th-best outfield option, Dex was benched. (When I say 6th-best, I know I might be short-changing some of the AA and AAA guys who could easily have topped a .562 OPS. I apologize to them.)

And now, gentle Redbird fans, Derrick Goold wants us to believe that Dexter Fowler was benched too soon. No, really. The craziest thing is, he endorses Fowler’s assertion that he was mistreated by Matheny when benched on June 12th — but in the next breath Goold astonishingly claims he isn’t taking any sides or expressing any opinion of his own. As an exercise in both illogic and hypocrisy, it was surreal to read. Excerpts:

“I have not offered an opinion at all on these things, chiefly because I don’t really have one. What I have attempted to illustrate is that Fowler has a point when he talks about the inconsistent playing time.”

If you believe that you “illustrate that Fowler has a point,” then by definition you are agreeing that he has a point in the first place. That’s a very important distinction. Goold is not simply articulating Fowler’s nonsensical point that he was benched too soon, and leaving it at that. No. Goold is expressly claiming that “Fowler has a point.” That’s a statement of opinion.

“I have attempted to explore this notion by pointing out how his playing time shriveled in the month before Matheny’s firing, and that he did not get what he said he needed to get right.”

There’s nothing to “point out.” Of course his playing time “shriveled.” He was benched. Rightly benched, after an horrific 2 1/2 month slump, with numerous better players available, for a team trying to make the postseason. There is no “notion” that needs to be “explored.”

Fowler wanted an infinite amount of playing time to try and get right. That’s a natural and normal thing, for a professional athlete. And no, he did not get that infinite amount of time to get right. It is absolutely true that Fowler did not get the time that Fowler wanted. But Goold acts as though by definition this means that Fowler was ill-used. That Fowler “has a point.” And that makes zero sense.

The real question isn’t “Why didn’t Fowler get more time to get right?” The real question is, “Why on earth did Matheny wait so long before finally benching him, with so many better choices available?”

“I’ve taken no stance on whether Matheny’s move was correct or whether Fowler would have stirred from his slump giving the playing time. Again, I don’t have one. I just want to make it clear that Fowler has a point…”

When you repeatedly state that someone “has a point” and you furthermore never present the other side of the argument, you are defacto taking a stance. And no, Fowler does NOT have a point. The mere fact that he was benched is NOT any sort of a POINT. At all.

Because when Dexter Fowler was finally benched, every one of the four necessary conditions for benching a veteran professional athlete was quite clearly met:

1) Veteran is playing very poorly
2) Veteran has been given a lot of rope
3) At least one clearly superior choice is available
4) Every win matters

If Fowler had been OPSing .670 or .690, maybe he would have a point — but again, he was at .562. With his good baserunning and below average defense, that made him one of the 3 or 4 worst players in major league baseball.

If he’d been benched in early-mid May, perhaps then he’d have a point. But he was given until mid-June, nearly 40% through the season to snap out of it. (This was nothing like 2017, by the way. Not remotely similar. In 2017 Fowler’s OPS never dropped below .710 after May 8th, and never below .730 after May 28th.) If Goold believes that Fowler “has a point” then I’d really, really like to know exactly when the BBWAA prez thinks a guy on a negative 3 WAR pace should be benched.

If, as with the Allen Craig/Oscar Taveras kerfuffle of 2014, the likely replacement for Fowler was also having a poor year, then maybe Dexter would have a point. But as shown above, five other Cardinal outfielders had an OPS at least 175 points above Fowler’s on the day he was removed from the starting lineup.

Or finally, if the Cards hadn’t needed every win, then there might be an argument for Fowler. But as we all know, then as now, every win counts.

I’m so glad that Al Gore invented the internet, because I might otherwise have spent the last hour drinking heavily or punching walls. This way I feel cleansed, much more like Peter Finch in Network — but for the computer generation!

[Bob Reed]

Luhnow did a great job for the Cards. But I can’t see giving him credit for anything that happened since he left.

And that would include the acquisitions of Wacha, Bader, DeJong, Hicks, O’Neill, Piscotty, Aledmys Diaz, Grichuk, Flaherty, Carson Kelly + Luke Weaver (or Goldschmidt if you prefer), Alex Reyes, and all of the young talent simmering in the minors right now. (Regardless of what Fangraphs is selling, the Cards have a top 6-8 farm system right now. Just like one year ago.)

As for the Luhnow years and post-Luhnow years…well let’s look at the numbers. In a manner of speaking.

Luhnow was obviously never the GM for St. Louis, so in a sense there were never really any “Luhnow years” per se. But let’s compare the post-Luhnow Cards to their immediate predecessor.

The outstanding Tony LaRussa/Albert Pujols Cardinals averaged just over 90 wins during their 11 seasons together, which was the 3rd-best record in MLB. LaRussa and Pujols both left during the same offseason that took Luhnow to Houston. So what happened afterwards?

The disappointing Mike Matheny/Matt Carpenter Cardinals averaged just over 90 wins during their 7 seasons together, which was the 3rd-best record in MLB.

I kid you not.

[Bob Reed]

Forgive my nitpicking, but I believe there was a minor typo in your post, Pugs. I think you meant to say that you were a fan of the Coryell Cardiac Cards. Dierdorf and Dobler, the Three Jims, Metcalf and Mel Gray. No worldly and devoted Redbird fan of a certain age could have a different football favorite.

And Wiley, thanks for the gracious sentiments. I’ve ripped many of Mo’s moves over the past couple of years, and wouldn’t retract any of the criticisms.

But I’m also not asking for his head on a platter, because his overall record remains among the best in the biz. He took over an aging, sub-.500 team after the 2007 season — and inherited a middling farm system as well.

Despite that lowly starting point, since Mo took over the Cards have posted 11 straight winning seasons, with the 3rd-best overall record behind only the Yanks and Dodgers. The last 3 years have disappointed, but consider the following:

From 2016-2018, 257 wins and no playoffs
Frisco 2012-14, 258 wins and two World Championships.

Sometimes being merely good during the regular season is enough. Sometimes not. (And Giants fans like Grant Brisbee claim that it’s the Cardinals that possess the Devil Magic. That’s a hot one.)

[Bob Reed]

Okay, I’ll bite. If she’s right it’ll almost surely mean that (1)everyone’s healthy, (2)Tyler O’Neill is the 4th outfielder, and (3)Jose Martinez was traded for a much-needed relief pitcher.

Those would all be very positive developments.

Will they all come true? I think Ponce last year showed that he was done with the minors, nothing much really left to learn. Looks like a classic case of “decent starting MILB starting pitcher becomes solid reliever in the majors.” So I think he makes the team.

Who would be dislodged then? Probably Leone, possibly Shreve. (Man would I love to hear a Redbird manager, coach, or executive at any level, just come out and say: “We don’t have to have multiple lefties in the bullpen. Not if the righties we have are very good, and can get lefty batters out.” It would be such a magical commonsense moment.)

Jen L. lists Drew Robinson as a bench guy. Which reminds me of another quote I’d like to see: “Yes, Drew Robinson hits left-handed. but he’s has never hit major league pitching, not even a little, and he hasn’t hit this Spring Training. So we decided to go another direction for the bench. After all, handedness barely matters, really. And doesn’t matter at all, compared to talent.”

I understand about a team potentially being too left-handed in hitters — because lefty bats can often be exploited when they face the real tough lefty arms. But the same is just not true of righty bats. True righty platoon hitters are much rarer than their lefty counterparts. So I think people (incl. the Redbird front office) are far too preoccupied with the idea of a lefty bench bat. If he stinks, what the heck good is it that he bats from one side or the other?

Now I hasten to add that Robinson was worth a shot in the dark. He’s hit in AAA, no doubt about it. But if he doesn’t hit in Spring Training, after failing so dismally last year in MLB, then send someone else north with the team. Maybe they got another Hazelbaker, we’ll see. But if not, then let’s hope they don’t shoehorn him into the roster due to nothing more than handedness. That would be silly. To me.

[Bob Reed]

Okay, here’s some more Edmundo info.

On April 26th the 22-year-old was hitting just .221/.229/.353 in AA. Over the next two months he hit nearly .300 with a roughly .800 OPS, earning a promotion to AAA, where he held his own for a couple of months with a boringly adequate line of .262/.321/.408. (Certainly adequate for a 22-year-old shortstop in the Pacific Coast League.)

And that was in a pretty severe hitting environment, relative to the PCL.

In Memphis: .198/.274/.256
On the road: .314/.360/.533

It was the addition of medium power that made his season interesting. The 30 doubles were more than he hit in 2016 and 2017 combined. The 12 homers equaled 2014 + ’15 + ’16 + ’17. What happened for Edmundo Sosa in 2018 was more or less what happened for Lane Thomas: Sosa had his first fully healthy season since leaving rookieball, and he drove the ball like never before.

Sosa still has question marks, of course. The plate discipline indicators are weak, and obviously his health history remains a red flag. But I like him as an MLB utilityman going forward. Maybe a very good one, if he can add patience to his power. (Assuming he retains the latter.)

[Bob Reed]

Bob, if you want more, please scroll down to the Wainwright thread. He has explained his problem last year, which of course is taken care of now.

I spoke to my doctor and he says I suffer from Wainwright Explanation Saturation. It’s a mostly harmless condition, but the doc advises me to avoid psychoactive drugs and Wainwright quotes — they’re bad for both brain and ticker.

[Bob Reed]

Our starting pitcher depth chart AFTER the first five goes:
Alex Reyes
John Gant
Austin Gomber
Dan Poncedeleon
Dakota Hudson

Our bullpen will likely be Miller, Cecil, Gregerson, Leone, Hicks, Shreve, Mayers, Brebbia. After those (8), we would first backfill from the above (5)

Then you get into the 40-man Triple-A relievers such as Giovanni Gallegos and Tyler Webb. Then you have Genesis Cabrera and Ryan Helsley.

I am pretty comfortable with our bullpen beyond Cecil, Gregerson, and Leone.

Thanks for the response, Pads. And I do wish I were as optimistic as you. (I like the bullpen okay for 2020 and beyond, because by then some of these guys will have separated themselves from the pack. And they’ll likely be adding Woodford & Kruczynski to the mix as well.)

But for 2019 there just aren’t that many guys listed above who I’d bet even money will be (1)healthy for at least 5 of 6 months, and (2)will also post a sub-4.00 ERA for the Cards.

Alphabetically, that would be Brebbia, Gant, Hicks, Hudson, Miller, and Ponce. That’s it, those six only. And Hudson or Ponce or both may stay stretched out in AAA, at least to begin the year.

That’s why I coveted Kikuchi as much as I did. He would’ve pushed Wainwright to the pen — where he might actually be able to post a mid-3’s ERA for months on end. Then, add one more legit relief arm in exchange for Jose Martinez, or Martinez plus a prospect if necessary, and you have a mucho more reliable relief corps.

I don’t know exactly what the White Sox (or Mariners) are thinking, but I suppose this makes a Nate Jones trade less plausible. Hard to tell who’s tanking these days. Perhaps they could each fly oversized flags outside their stadiums, but instead of an L or W, it could be a T.

[Bob Reed]

Kyle Reis is some guy. One minute he’s helping destroy the Terminator, and the next he’s making prospect lists.

I don’t have Sosa in my top 10, but do have him 12th, and roughly 280th overall. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but he had a long stretch of good hitting in AA — like his final two months there or so. Something of that nature. And he’s considered an actual shortstop. Nice boring average defender at the position, is the consensus I believe.

Nunez is 6th for BPro and 28th for Fangraphs — who has the Cardinals as the worst of the 10 farm systems they’ve evaluated so far. Nice to see BPro not discounting Nunez too much for his excessive physical strength.

[Bob Reed]

It’s been five years since Waino pitched 50+ innings with a sub-4.50 ERA. It ain’t all because of body weight.

I was mildly optimistic when the Cards re-signed him. Because it was very little dough, and my personal expectation was that he could buttress the relief corps, maybe. I thought his velocity could get just enough of a bullpen boost to make him viable in that role.

But now we’re hearing that he’ll report as a rotation pitcher (blecch) and the “best shape of my life” type of stories are starting already. You’re old, Adam. Forget starting. Go out the way you came in — saving the final game of the World Series.

[Bob Reed]

After watching Machado grab, kick, and step on his opponents during the playoffs, perhaps the WWE would be interested in signing him?

I’m betting on the Phightin’ Phillies, though.

[Bob Reed]

Well I hate that Bumgarner news, Brian. While you’re at it, why don’t you give me a nice paper cut and pour lemon juice on it?

For me this would make the Brewers slight favorites to repeat as division winners, pending any additional Cards/Cubs activity. Milwaukee has decisively out-Cardinaled the Cardinals over the past 2-3 years, and this would seem to be yet another example in the offing. Shrewd and opportunistic, and upgrading where they need it most. (Unilke the Cards who have made one solitary move to improve the 2nd-worst bullpen in the National League. Sigh.)

The Birds should be targeting Bumgarner themselves now that Kikuchi is off the board. Unless of course they believe — after all that’s happened over the past 3-4 years — that Adam Wainwright should be a starting pitcher on a championship contender. In which case they should have their collective heads examined.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the kind words, Brian and BHC.

[Bob Reed]

I like the Redbird deal for Miller more than the Yankee Britton deal. Robertson’s deal is preferable to both, but that’s mostly moot since he was reported to strongly favor east coast teams — in much the same way that Kikuchi unfortunately was rumored to like the left coast best.

Question is, who do the Cards target for the bullpen now? Because it is NOT good enough yet. Not enough quality or depth. Not when you figure that (1)at least one bullpen candidate and possibly two from among Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon, and maybe even Dakota Hudson, will need to stay stretched out as a starter in Triple-A, and (2)some guy or guys will come up with a bum flipper during Spring Training.

[Bob Reed]

I’m probably being naïve in this, but I’m mildly relieved that Girsch is at least presenting the façade of an actual Spring Training competition for the right field spot.

The question becomes, if everyone is healthy leaving Florida, how much better than Fowler would Tyler O’Neill or Jose Martinez have to be, in order to claim the Opening Day RF slot? Would it require an advantage of 250 OPS points? 300? 400? Even more? (It’s likely a LaRussian style spring training competition, i.e., a competition in name only. But one can dream, can’t one?)

[Bob Reed]

I didn’t want to tack this on to the previous post. Probably enough info in that one already. But here, from Feb. 2016, was a thorough post of mine on Harrison Bader, including some pre-draft analysis from Rob Ozga, who’s very good at that sort of thing. Someone asked why I liked Bader as much as I did.

—————————-

Well, there’s a few things.

Before the draft, I liked the way his hitting profile evolved through his 3 seasons at Florida. First year, he batted .312 while fanning just 9% of the time and managing a meager isolated slugging of .063. Next year, he hit .335 and bumped the ISO up a bit to .095 while whiffing 16% of the time. Then in 2015 it pretty much all came together, as his K% increased to an acceptable 19%, while his ISO improved all the way to .258, while batting .297 — a still-impressive batting average, given the level of competition in the SEC last year. Here was the prolific Rob Ozga’s pre-draft analysis:

I want to say that Florida JR OF Harrison Bader can do a little bit of everything, but that would be a lie. Harrison Bader can do a lot of everything. He’s a legitimate five-tool player and I’ll fight anybody who says otherwise. I’d take him over any bat in the conference not named Bregman or Swanson without a second thought. Above-average raw power, above-average to plus speed, and the ability to play center make him a lot like Vanderbilt JR OF Rhett Wiseman to me, but with a markedly better approach at the plate. If he’s there in the second, it’s an easy call. Also, I’m not a scout and smarter people have disagreed with me, but I love his swing. It’s not conventionally pretty, but his lower half and upper half are coordinated really well and there’s just enough of an uppercut (but not too much) to suggest his power surge is real.

And then Ozga again immediately before the draft:

42. Florida JR OF Harrison Bader: plus to plus-plus speed; really good CF range; above-average arm; above-average raw power; quick bat; 5-11, 190 pounds

So I liked it when St. Louis nabbed him in the 3rd round. And then I saw him play in Peoria (Midwest League) in July. I ‘m no judge of swings or plate discipline just by looking, but in the field/on the bases I saw a player both quick & fast, a real ath-uh-lete. Probably not 6’ tall, maybe not even 5’ 11″, but certainly strong enough to project for average or better pop.

In Peoria, Bader did basically exactly what he did in college, playing CF well and hitting for a very good average and excellent power, posting a wRC+ of 152 via a slashline of .301/.364/.505. Now, minor league wRC+ numbers do not include park factors, and Bader’s home park is generally considered at least a bit of a drag on offense; in fact, on the road he hit a whopping .351/.415/.586. So even the excellent 152 wRC+ may be underestimating his abilities compared to league peers.

Here’s John’s profile from September: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/18/9346637/prospect-on-the-rise-harrison-bader-of-st-louis-cardinals

So I see a guy who has a lot going for him, in pretty much every phase except plate patience. (Just 15 walks in over 200 MWL at-bats.) With a better BB/K ratio, he’d be in my overall top 40-50 right now. As it is, I can’t see any way of keeping him off a top 100 list, and would personally put him in the 65-80 range.

by Mekonsrock on Feb 29, 2016 | 12:35 AM up 3 recs flag

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the response, Brian. I’m very glad you brought up Bader’s splits, because I want to talk about those. And yes, I am and was suggesting the Cards should not have even considered signing Fowler, not to any sort of long term deal. Because they already very likely had their centerfielder of 2018 and beyond. (Bader was NOT going to be ready at the start of the 2017 season. I would never claim that. But he was clearly going to be ready soon, and Fowler was too old and too mediocre to justify any contract substantially exceeding the one he signed with the Cubs pre-2016. (One short year and a measly 8 million bucks, I believe. Cubs got it right.)

But I want you to be sure there is no “Monday morning QBing” going on. So here are some of the innumerable comments I made about Bader while he was in the minors. These are each mined from the now defunct John Sickels site.

Late August, 2015, the year Bader was drafted:

Of the 23 college bats drafted ahead of Bader, only 9 have even advanced to full season ball. Very encouraging — for Bader AND DeJong.
I like Bader as a potential Victorino, or at least Victorino Lite.
Posted by Mekonsrock on Aug 25, 2015 | 2:41 PM

So you can see my early interest and enthusiasm.

——————————–

From March of 2016:

Per Fangraphs, a total of 2,781 minor leaguers garnered at least 150 plate appearances last year.
Of those 2,781 players, only two guys had double-digit homers while going yard at least once every 7 games, stealing a base at least once per 5 games, fanning less than 20% of the time, and batting at least .280.

One was Carlos Correa. The other was Harrison Bader.

While the two are of course NOT truly comparable talents, the above numbers do help put Bader’s fine (and admittedly abbreviated) 2015 season into context. There’s a very appealing balance of skills there, and if Bader plays CF as well as the scouting reports and available MiLB defensive metrics imply, he’ll be an up-the-middle defender for quite a while.

by Mekonsrock on Mar 11, 2016 | 2:17 AM flag

——————————-

Next, June of 2016.

Yeah, Eloy’s got a bit of the “Harrison Bader problem,” where the BB/K/AB ratio puts people off — probably more than it should.
Jimenez and Bader are both top 45-60 types for me. (With room to move up 10-15 slots over the next two months, too.)
Posted by Mekonsrock on Jun 19, 2016 | 5:23 PM

So there you see a ranking range, midway through the 2016 season. Note the “room to move up” remark, as well. Because they both did in fact move up. Eloy for everyone. Bader just for me, apparently.

————————————

By September of 2016 Bader was top 50 for me.

With his 143 wRC+ at age 21 in AA, Bader is still a top 40-50 guy for me despite the poor AAA stint. I’d give him a solid 30% chance to be an annual 3-4 WAR guy over his prime. That feels like bottom of a top 50.
Posted by Mekonsrock on Sep 7, 2016 | 8:33 PM

Yes, I was the voice in the wilderness. Even just one year ago, Fangraphs barely had Bader inside their top 200. (Kinda like now, when they don’t have Elehuris Montero inside their top 250. But their bizarrely biased incompetence with Cardinals is a topic for another day.)

—————————————–

If you have access, Brian, to the Dexter Fowler post-signing thread of December, 2016, you’ll find me vehemently arguing that the advantage of Fowler over Bader, during the total run of the 5-year contract, would be ONE GAME in the standings for the Redbirds. One game. For $82M plus the surplus value of a mid first round draft pick. (I vividly specifically recall going overboard a little and estimating that surplus draft pick value at over $15M, just so I could say that Fowler cost the Cards ~$100M for one win. Nice round number, $100M.)

This “one game for $100M” conclusion was based on a combination of standard aging curves, plus Clay Davenport’s projections for Dex and Harry. Find the thread if you can. Because I was indeed in the wilderness when I made that statement, even though I backed it up with much more than opinion. People did not want to hear it. BikeMike agreed with me at the time. Don’t think anyone else did. Well, I’m sure at least a couple of folks did. But I don’t remember them by name. People wanted Fowler. World Series ring! Steal him from our rival! By and large, people mean well. Like 90-95% of the time. But in many instances they also cannot be reasoned with, unfortunately.

Anyway now it seems I very likely underestimated Bader. Which brings me, at long last, to the subject of splits.

Bader had a good season at Springfield but it was EXTREMELY imbalanced. His OPS against LHP was 1.224. Against RHP, his line was a mediocre .249/.319/.377/.697.

The line v. righties is correct, but Bader actually did this against lefties in AA: .426/.485/.1.000

That’s no typo. in A-ball in 2015, he did this against southpaws: .419/.468/.907
And in AAA in 2017 it was .389/.456/.778

Yes, he likes lefties. And that line versus righties in AA? It was .249/.319/.377, right? You’re probably going to think I’m pulling your leg, but The Texas League average that year was .249/.316/.378.

So what we have is a batter who is average against same-siders and absolutely destroys oppo arms. On balance that’s a very good hitter. Like a football team that plays .500 on the road, but wins all their home games.

Only one year removed from college ball, and just 21/22 years old, Bader did indeed struggle in his first taste of Triple-A in 2016, as you mentioned, Brian. Then he was much better in his second try. Same with the majors. Struggled in 2017, and a bit above average in 2018.

And we should expect him to be above average going forward, because here is a very telling split that people should be focusing on a lot more, in my opinion.

2018 for the Cardinals
Home .357 slugging, and a .678 OPS
Road .492 slugging, and an .840 OPS

And before anyone asks, that excellent road number was in no way padded by Coors or some other hitter’s haven. (He didn’t homer once in Colorado.) His four best road parks were Atlanta, San Diego, KC, and Frisco. In just 38 combined AB’s he homered 7 times.

Harrison Bader is the Cardinals’ Lorenzo Cain. Like Cain, never a top 100 prospect. Like Cain, a lot of value in CF and on the bases. Like Cain, hits lefties much better than normals. Like Cain, he can be a 4-WAR guy as nothing more than a league-average hitter. Let us embrace our Bader.

[Bob Reed]

But isn’t the “textbook rationalization” also what is behind your assumption they would start Fowler for close to 100 more games before taking him out of the lineup?

“They did it last year, so they will do it again this year.”

Good question.

One case is about athletic ability, expecting a player to repeat a specific hitting trait, despite the fact that (1)some element of hitting is random, and (2)hitters all decline eventually, often precipitously, especially in their 30’s. Dexter Fowler is almost by definition a different (and very likely lesser) hitter entering his mid-30’s than he was just a few years ago. (This is expressed most starkly by Fowler’s inability over the past two years to hit “power pitchers” as categorized by Baseball-Reference, after being just fine against them over his career.) So expecting Fowler to do what he did in the past, is folly. To me.

The other case is much more about human nature, expecting an individual (Shildt) or group (front office) to keep doing the same thing they’ve done in the very recent past, unless they’ve expressed an understanding that the first time they did it, it was a mistake. Shildt and Mo have never expressed any understanding whatever that either the Fowler contract was a mistake, or that re-inserting Fowler in the starting lineup in mid-July was a mistake.

Now, I know what your reply might be here. “Of course they’re not going to say those things in public.” And that’s true. But the other reason I don’t trust them to do the smart thing, is that front office has also shown zero sense that they understand how good O’Neill is — just like 12 and 24 months ago when they showed no sense of how good Harrison Bader was. If they’d known what they had in Bader after 2016 when he dominated Double-A at age 21, they would never have flushed all of the Fowler money down the toilet.

Warning. Pointless belligerent aside coming.

(And it all flows from John Mabry. Mabry stunk as a hitting coach. So young Cardinals were failing to develop, over and over again. Adams, Wong, Grichuk, Piscotty, Diaz. But the front office did not understand the cause and effect. They thought [and maybe still think] that their minor leaguers simply weren’t as good as their minor league performances made them appear. So 24 and 12 months ago they severely underestimated Harry Bader; and maybe worse, eventually they fired their highly successful pitching coach, and they retained the worse-than-useless Mabry.)

The mere fact that they’ve declared not an open competition for right field — no, not that, can’t have that — but rather that the suddenly sensitive Dexter Flower, that delicate depressive personage, will instead be handed the starting job right now, is in and of itself ample evidence to me that the organization is prioritizing Dexter’s happiness to a literally insane degree.

[Bob Reed]

I hear you, Brian. But I really, really don’t want to talk about how long they go with a struggling Fowler, because I don’t think there’s a limit, honestly. I think he could be bad, and stick all year.

Fowler was as terrible as just about any player in the sport in 2018. And yet it took Matheny nearly 2 1/2 months to finally bench him. And then, a month later, Shildt comes in and puts him back in the starting lineup. It was mad, and maddening.

Fowler probably won’t be that terrible again in 2019 — but if he’s a .680-.720 OPS guy, as I fear he will be, that would only embolden the club to keep his replacement-level play in the starting lineup indefinitely.

But okay, I’ll go along with the premise, sort of.
Let’s say that Fowler is exactly as execrable in 2019 as he was in 2018. I think that Shildt keeps him in the starting lineup until the All-Star break. (He must of course keep Dexter in the starting lineup markedly longer than Matheny did in 2018, or Derrick Goold will call Shildt a meanie, will say that Shildt makes Dexter depressed. Can’t have that, as Dexter’s emotional well-being is obviously the key to the entire organization. Just ask Goold.)

Now, how long should they go with the 33-year-old Fowler, if he hits like 2018 again? One month, that’s it. Too many good alternatives to stick with him longer than that.

And please don’t anyone tell me about how Dexter Fowler was slumping during some period of some other season, and then turned it all around. That argument could be used to defend any excessive use of any aging failing player in any season. “Remember when he had a bad streak that one time, then got much better?!” Textbook rationalization.

On the Martinez matter, I would trade Jose for a very good reliever — even if I had to include a prospect as a sweetener. I’ve listed lots of trade targets over the past several weeks. If anyone asks me to list them again, I will. But I feel like I’ve beaten that deceased equine more than once.

[Bob Reed]

“If we have to stash O’Neill in Memphis for awhile that is a good problem to have. Most teams would like that kind of depth.”

It’s great to have depth, couldn’t agree more. But given the events of the past 12 months, and their respective long term major and minor league track records, if Fowler is in the Opening Day lineup and O’Neill is demoted back to AAA after batting .311/.385/.693 for Memphis in 2018, something is terribly wrong with the StL manager & front office.

The thing of it is, as both the fans and front office very well know, the Cardinals figure to need every single win they can get in 2019. And Tyler O’Neill projects as their 2nd or 3rd-best overall outfielder, depending whether you look at the Davenport or Steamer forecast. (For that matter, Davenport has him in a virtual tie with Ozuna for best outfielder on the roster.)

In 2018 Mo & Co. kept Hudson and Poncedeleon down in Memphis for faaar too long, stubbornly trying to get full value from several bad reliever contracts. That obstinance, coupled with Fowler’s eyesore of a season, inarguably cost the team a playoff spot.

If the front office did not learn anything from that experience, then a pox on their house.

[Bob Reed]

I’m one of those who may be underrating him, cranny. But a reliever-only, who’s well on the wrong side of 25 already, generally has so little upside that he isn’t worth talking about. For me.

Or another of putting it, the Yankees are a very shrewd organization, and they didn’t even give him a Sept. callup until age 25/26, in his 6th year in their system. Probably a symptom of something. Not for sure, but probably.

As for those harsh words from the chat, Pads…I agree with Glaser at least 90% in every instance. In fact it was refreshing to read a BA chat where so much common sense was being applied — instead of a near fanatical clinging to ancient scouting reports of dubious merit.

I’m not completely giving up on Seijas, not at his age, not before he’s even been given a shot at bullpen work, which has had a salutary effect on so many arms through the years. But scrawny Johnny Machado failed dismally at two levels above rookieball, and Delvin Perez has turned out to be nothing, and I think we all understand why. I don’t have any of the three in my top 30 Cardinals. Seijas would be top 35-40 or so.

[Bob Reed]

1. Reyes an overall top 10 prospect still in Glaser’s eyes.
2. Cards “comfortably in top half” of team ranks, with 5 top 100 guys.
3. Gorman compared to Moustakas (blech), a .240-.250 hitter. O’Neill in the same hit category.
4. Montero .280+, 25HR+ but will be 1B or LF.
5. Mateo Gil singled out as a potential 2019 breakout.
6. Ivan Herrera a bad defender, even considering his age.
7. No one to compare Nunez to, because you shouldn’t comp 17 y/o players.

1) I still have Reyes number 1, but for me there’s no way that someone with his injury history should be in a top 10. I’ve got him ~35th.

2) BA includes Tyler O’Neill among the Redbird prospects, so the farm would be top 4-6 with his inclusion. Best collection of power hitters in the minors, and it’s not close. Gorman, O’Neill, Montero, Leandro Cedeno, Malcom Nunez, Jhon Torres, and even Lane Thomas and Ramon Usias could be loosely categorized as “power hitters.” And who knows how much pop Dylan Carlson will have at maturity. (Davenport says 25 homers or so.) Without Tyler O’Neill, the farm should rate roughly between 6th and 9th.

3) The Moustakas comment was mildly disheartening, but a .240-.250 average isn’t as bad as it would’ve been just a decade ago. This year’s N.L. average? Only .247. In 2008, it was .260. If Gorman and O’Neill can hit .250 with 40 homers, that’s exactly equivalent to the .280 average and 25 bombs forecast for Elehuris Montero. (Every ten points of batting average is worth five homers, for a full time player.) And in 2018, over 600 plate appearances, that would be an OPS+ or wRC+ of roughly 130-140, depending on the doubles/triples/walk rate.

4) Even at first or a corner outfield, that’s still excellent production. See #3. Or just look at Anthony Rizzo. Last five years he’s posted a 141 wRC+ and averaged 4.5 WAR per Fangraphs.

5) With sooo many youngsters to choose from, Mateo Gil would never have popped into my head as a prime breakout candidate. But he was just 17 in the Gulf Coast League, and that’s a tough place for a young guy, and he did post league-average numbers. I just don’t see any speed or pop to build upon. Did show good patience for a kid, though. And it’s probably meaningless, but in a truly miniscule sample of 50+ PA’s he did perform very well when batting leadoff (.362 with a .901 OPS and a lucky 7/11 BB/K ratio).

6) Herrera had a lot of passed balls, but just one error, and he gunned a firm third of basestealers, so I don’t know how Ivan’s arm was “fringey” or “marginal” or whatever it was that BA’s Mr. Glaser called it. (In 2017 he had too many errors, but gunned 40%. There’s requisite defensive talent for backstop — and if there isn’t, the bat he’s shown so far will play anywhere at all. (Two seasons, young for both leagues, and a wRC+ of 155 in 2017 was the bad year.)

7) Perhaps I’m being unfair, but that feels like a cop-out, and a weird one coming from a “scouty” place like Baseball America. Every scout who sees him will draw upon their expansive storehouse of knowledge & memories to place his strength, swing, balance, bat speed into some sort of context — and that context is usually going to be a comp. I’ll do it, because I’m irresponsible anyway. I think the kid is going to hit like prime Allen Craig, roping line drives all over the field. (Sorry, Black Hills.)

“If Montero is our best hit for average player and he is only around .280 then we have a problem.”

Don’t worry about that, CC. The best hitter for average will probably be Knizner, Nunez, or Herrera. One of them will crowd the .300 mark at least once or twice. And again, .285 these days is like .300 just a decade ago. Standards have shifted, for now anyway.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks for the kind words, Pugs. And a happy new year!

And funny coincidence, not ten minutes ago I just said more or less the same thing on another thread, re Alex Reyes.

[Bob Reed]

“Seems like RB didn’t trust Reyes to not be injured, and did like the upside of the other guys. Personally I can’t see any reason anyone would put Reyes any lower than #2, and that’s only if you are dreaming on Gorman becoming a good 3B with a big bat.”

Well I still have Reyes #1, if just barely. But I can understand why a rationally frustrated and perhaps somewhat pessimistic (fatalistic?) analyst would place him considerably lower.

I understand it, but disagree with it. The thing is, Reyes was SO amazing during his rehab appearances, that I perceive his ceiling as now probably higher than it’s ever been — although, rather paradoxically, achieving that ceiling is lower in likelihood than ever, due to Reyes’ injury inclinations. In the past, his inefficiency, the lack of command, always made him a #2 upside guy for me. Now however, if he’s not physically broken, in my opinion he could be a Cy Young type.

I don’t imagine anyone here needs a reminder, but the rehab games totaled 23 innings and featured an otherworldly 44-to-7 strikeout/walk tally (and as a bonus, just 7 base hits). He fanned 26 of the 49 batters in the two AA and AAA starts. Alex hadn’t shown anything like that sort of domination since his final month of Low-A ball, when he had a 38/6 K/BB over 25 innings pitched.

Maybe my glasses are Cardinal-colored, but with the recent seasons of Tommy Pham and Marco Gonzales, I’m less quick to give up on “injury guys.” For a bigger talent, I’ll cross my fingers and hope for health. So I’m giving Alex Reyes one more year. If on the other hand he comes up badly injured this Spring Training, and is therefore still eligible for prospect lists 12 months from now, he’ll get a HUGE downgrade from me. Almost surely lower than 6th.

[Bob Reed]

Didn’t want to start a whole new thread, since this Molina “update” ties in with the topic. For those who don’t already know, Baseball Prospectus has updated their hitter values, based on their new batting metric, the name of which escapes me at the moment.

By this shiny new yardstick, Yadi Molina gets a nearly 10% boost to his career WAR, but Harrison Bader has his MLB value, and value at every level of the minors for that matter, almost gutted. So I suspect that what’s going on here is that B-Pro’s exciting new acronym is over-correcting for outliers of infield hits/BABIP — and said over-correcting excessively helps the slowest of slowpokes while stealing from the Baders of the world.

Anyway, this metric being applied by B-Pro to Yadi and (presumably) his fellow backstops, shouldn’t give any one individual player any meaningful advantage. They pretty much all run like catchers, right? So here are the top 10 tools of ignorance wearers, by career WAR, per B-Pro’s latest update:

Carlton Fisk… 77.1 WAR
Yogi Berra… 73.4
Johnny Bench… 72.9
Mike Piazza… 70.6
Gary Carter… 67.7
Yadi Molina… 59.2
Ivan Rodriguez… 57.9
Bill Dickey… 53.2
Mickey Cochrane… 53.0
Ted Simmons… 52.1

The other Hall Of Fame catchers for whom B-Pro has WAR values, range from 33.3 career WAR for Rick “maybe they meant to phone my brother” Ferrell, to 46.7 WAR for Gabby “gloamin’ homer” Hartnett.

All in all, the 12 HOF catchers with B-Pro WAR values (the other two are Campy & Lombardi) score an average of 57.7 career WAR. Toss out the high and low men, and the average is 58.2. Keep the high and low, but toss the two probable PED cheats, and the average becomes 56.6.

So any way we slice it, Yadi Molina with his 59.2 WAR definitely belongs with this Hall Of Fame group.

(For the sake of completeness, the other six enshrined backstops are Roger Bresnahan, Buck Ewing, King Kelly, Biz Mackey, Louis Santop, and Ray Schalk.)

[Bob Reed]

I just want mostly to echo Brian’s thoughts: thanks for all the math, CC!

I do enjoy speculating on all things baseball, so…looking at that prospective roster, I’d replace Harper with O’Neill, Gomber with Mikolas, and Reyes with Kikuchi. Reyes is pushed to the bullpen. O’Neill’s bench slot is likely filled by Randy Arozarena or Justin Williams or Lane Thomas.

CC’s powerful lineup would almost surely lead the National League in runs scored, and maybe all of baseball. But I’m not crazy about the rotation or bullpen — and I also don’t like what’s happening in the minors right now, in terms of twirlers. There’s a non-zero chance that 12 months from now the top 16-18 Cardinal minor leaguers will all be position players.

The top 4 pitchers could all lose rookie eligibility by then (Reyes, Hudson, Helsley, Cabrera), and the fifth just got suspended for abject idiocy. (I do think Angel Rondon is being overlooked by many. The fastball velocity and curveball snap were both average or better when I saw him this summer. Couldn’t tell if the third pitch was a slider or straight change, but he began to show some feel for it after the 3rd inning or so. A solid 4/5 starter is not unrealistic with lucky health.)

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