- This topic has 229 replies, 30 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Unless he has a disastrous spring training, Munoz is a sure thing.
Agree 100%, D.J.!
Thank you very very much for the kind words, Jon J., CardsFanInChiTown, Brian, Mudville, TexasCard, NJ315, Onyxgem, D.J., Scotty, Jags, Carioca, Bobby, Pads, Booyah, Black Hills, Nyquist, Cards2016, Cards25 and Cards27!
jj-cf-stl asked:
GS, are the stat sheet guys correct?
How many batters did our SP’s face on avg last season? Somewhere between the 18 and 27 batters you spoke of?I am not GS, but I can provide a partial answer. No MLB pitcher last season averaged 27 batters per game. Max Scherzer was #1 at 26.24.
Mikolas was tops on the Cards and 12th in MLB at 25.25. The Cards average starter was 23.2 over the season.
Well done. You must be a stat sheet guy, as is everyone else who can divide TBF by GS.
I think we may need a different scapegoat.
As a quick aside, as a Green Bay Packers fan, I could not have scripted a better ending to the Eagles-bears game in my wildest dreams. It just doesn’t get any better!!
Forgive my nitpicking, but I believe there was a minor typo in your post, Pugs. I think you meant to say that you were a fan of the Coryell Cardiac Cards. Dierdorf and Dobler, the Three Jims, Metcalf and Mel Gray. No worldly and devoted Redbird fan of a certain age could have a different football favorite.
And Wiley, thanks for the gracious sentiments. I’ve ripped many of Mo’s moves over the past couple of years, and wouldn’t retract any of the criticisms.
But I’m also not asking for his head on a platter, because his overall record remains among the best in the biz. He took over an aging, sub-.500 team after the 2007 season — and inherited a middling farm system as well.
Despite that lowly starting point, since Mo took over the Cards have posted 11 straight winning seasons, with the 3rd-best overall record behind only the Yanks and Dodgers. The last 3 years have disappointed, but consider the following:
From 2016-2018, 257 wins and no playoffs
Frisco 2012-14, 258 wins and two World Championships.Sometimes being merely good during the regular season is enough. Sometimes not. (And Giants fans like Grant Brisbee claim that it’s the Cardinals that possess the Devil Magic. That’s a hot one.)
Good post, Bob. All I would warn is that tanking makes wins in 2016-18 a bit less valuable than in 2012-14, which is likely one reason why the Giants got in when the Cards did not.
I guess the Cards may wait until Spring Training until injuries force them to keep him, or happen to other teams.
Bob, I give Jeff Luhnow all the credit for revamping the drafting and development for our farm system. Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa had the teachings standardized at all levels. Since Mozeliak took over the team has been in decline and he has made only one major change and that’s because DeWitt was pushing him to get something done. Mike Girsch has very quietly made some very astute trades for minor league talent since he became GM. Sorry, but Mo inherited a top team and has done very little to improve the product. I say let Girsch be the GM and Mo retire comfortably to his cushy job upstairs.
Luhnow did a great job for the Cards. But I can’t see giving him credit for anything that happened since he left.
And that would include the acquisitions of Wacha, Bader, DeJong, Hicks, O’Neill, Piscotty, Aledmys Diaz, Grichuk, Flaherty, Carson Kelly + Luke Weaver (or Goldschmidt if you prefer), Alex Reyes, and all of the young talent simmering in the minors right now. (Regardless of what Fangraphs is selling, the Cards have a top 6-8 farm system right now. Just like one year ago.)
As for the Luhnow years and post-Luhnow years…well let’s look at the numbers. In a manner of speaking.
Luhnow was obviously never the GM for St. Louis, so in a sense there were never really any “Luhnow years” per se. But let’s compare the post-Luhnow Cards to their immediate predecessor.
The outstanding Tony LaRussa/Albert Pujols Cardinals averaged just over 90 wins during their 11 seasons together, which was the 3rd-best record in MLB. LaRussa and Pujols both left during the same offseason that took Luhnow to Houston. So what happened afterwards?
The disappointing Mike Matheny/Matt Carpenter Cardinals averaged just over 90 wins during their 7 seasons together, which was the 3rd-best record in MLB.
I kid you not.
jj-cf-stl
jj-cf-stlParticipant
Free
Well done. You must be a stat sheet guy, as is everyone else who can divide TBF by GS.I think we may need a different scapegoat.
I’m not following you JJ. I think Brian’s stats proved my point. Starting pitchers are averaging going through the lineup between two and three times, which means teams need a larger bullpen, which means a shorter bench, which means you better have bench players with a lot of flexibility. So I think an argument can be made that the correct scapegoat was found.
You can blame the stat sheet guys if you like, but they didn’t tell us anything we already didn’t know, or should have known.
SP’s throwing to less and less batters per outing has been going on for what, the last 100 yrs? During that span bullpens have increased and benches got smaller.
Maybe one day soon we have a 6man rotation where two arms throw 4 IP apiece. Use the closer when you need him.
10 or 20 yrs ago a consistant “opener” would have been laughable. No telling where the game is going but i dont see stat sheet guys creating the mess.
It’s Brians fault!
“10 or 20 yrs ago a consistent ‘opener’ would have been laughable. No telling where the game is going but I dont see stat sheet guys creating the mess.”
I don’t have a canine in this skirmish, but I do wonder about the “opener” philosophy in general. It seems to me that the opener should be a very good reliever, because you’re asking him to face the top of the opposition order. And yet, your best 3 or 4 relievers should of course be saved for the higher leverage situations. And the first inning — even against the top of the order — would ordinarily be among the lowest leverage situations in a game. Wouldn’t it? So I guess I’m a bit baffled by the whole thing. And obviously too lazy to research it.
Maybe someone here could clarify the underlying thought process. Thanks in advance.
jj-cf-stl
Participant
SP’s throwing to less and less batters per outing has been going on for what, the last 100 yrs? During that span bullpens have increased and benches got smaller.
No, not really. It was pretty common in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s for starting pitchers to throw 220-250 innings. Now it is a miracle if a starter goes over 200 innings. The stat geeks took over after the Moneyball movie came out in 2011.
Follow the money trail. Many stat geeks use their info for betting purposes and get irate when their output is not used 100%.
That’s a good question Brian. My answer is this; I’m attributing any trade involving acquiring minor league talent to Girsch. Why? Because Mozeliak rarely ever did it. Mike Girsch comes in and all of the sudden we have Cabrera, Williams, Gallegos, Elledge, Capel, Torres, Munoz, Schrock etc. Not deals Mo would bother with. Mike on the other hand, apparently has a passion for the minor leagues and knows it’s players inside-out. I’d bet my house he’s behind these deals, so let’s give the man his due.
Bob, thanks for the face-wash. I give credit for drafting where it belongs; the Director of Scouting. He’s the expert, the strategist, the co-ordinator. The biggest difference in today’s Cardinals and the LaRussa era…scouting! Luhnow was brought in by DeWitt and he rebuilt the scouting department and now our farm system is overly productive and that didn’t change when he left. Walt Jocketty could trade 3 bales of hay for 1 gold bar and did it brilliantly; McGwire, Edmonds, Rolen etc., which is why he was successful pre-Jeff. Luhnow and LaRussa changed the direction of our team’s mission statement with their efforts and Mozeliak has been riding the coat-tails of our player development ever since. Mo prefers ‘safe’ trades on a small level and that’s why he was incapable of Jocketty magic, until DeWitt stepped in and started pushing him to do his job, ergo Goldsmith and Ozuna.
GS, I get your point about the “message”, but when it comes to this particular batters faced by SP’s topic, its no different than the news reporting a past event.
The channel 4 news reporter isn’t responsible for the shooting, the person with the gun is.
Analytics isn’t needed for batters faced per start, that decision is made by teams and “stat sheet guys” report those past results.
Managers dont need analytics to know when their starter is done.
Managers dont need analytics to know when their starter is done.
That is true but I think managers have a lot more input from the front office than they used to because front offices are now ran by ivy league stat guys instead of retired players and coaches, for better or worse.
Steve Carlton pitched more than 250 innings in a season 12 times! And more than 300 innings twice! If the GM had come to the manager and said “the advanced stats say that Steve really shouldn’t face the opposing lineup more than 2 or 3 times”, the manager would have thought he was crazy.
Moneyball has changed the game. There is no denying that.
Wiley, I enjoyed reading your comments. IMO Jocketty was 10 times the GM that Mo is. Walt was bold and knew how to make the big deal. I understand that he didn’t emphasize building up the farm system the way DeWitt wants, and that led to his demise, but the results speak for themselves. I guarantee you that Walt wouldn’t have sat around on his hands the last three years and watched the Cubs kick sand in our face.
Wiley… good call on Girsch’s v. Mozeliak’s brands.
If my memory serves me (50/50) I believe that the moderator stated that the Director of Scouting is in total charge of the draft.
I do not recall saying “total charge”, but the scouting director leads the draft, yes.
My understanding is that the way the Cardinals are making trades and free agent moves is based on which of their executives has the better relationship with the peer executive and/or agent and that it is NOT split out cleanly between majors (PBO) and minors (GM) as is being theorized here. No matter who is in the lead of a deal, there is a high level of collaboration internally in the front office. No one is going to make moves without them being communicated among themselves first. However, there is a clear hierarchy.
However, I am open to evidence to the contrary.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.