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Dang Bob. That’s impressive and very detailed.
I didn’t oppose the Cardinals signing Fowler at the time but I was highly worried about the amount of years and unfortunately, unlike you, I am not capable to proving my line of thinking.
Bob, thank you for sharing that wealth of information. You have quite an impressive filing system. You clearly did back Bader all along and my Monday morning quarterback suggestion was invalid.
Having said that, I still do not agree that Bader had shown enough by December 2016 to keep the Cards from signing Fowler. The likely thinking was that if Bader continued to grow into a major league starter in CF, that by then, Fowler could be moved to a corner. Bader needed more time and the Cards needed a Major League hitter in 2017. At that point, Bader was about where Randy Arozarena is now – good success at Double-A and a so-so Triple-A debut.
It is too bad they chose Fowler, but they did. As BHC noted, many were concerned about the money and years, but only you apparently felt they should wait for Bader. Hindsight tells us that 2017 would have ended the same way with or without Fowler, but the majority of fans would have revolted had the team not tried to address the OF need that season. Again, no debating that Fowler was a bad choice. The point is there was an immediate need and there were no internal candidates ready to fill it.
In reality what happened from there is that Pham stepped up first as Fowler stumbled. The biggest thing that occurred to help Bader make the final step beyond more development time at Triple-A was Pham’s decline. By then, Fowler had already taken himself out of the CF picture, anyway.
P.S. FWIW, I still fear that if Bader cannot be more successful against RHP that he could have a hard time holding down a starting berth over the long haul. With his defense and hitting LHP the way he does, he should always have a platoon job, but from the wrong side to get the majority of at-bats. Here is hoping that he is another hitter Jeff Albert can help grow.
Given that a good portion of Bader’s value comes from his defense, unless you have a .850+ OPS platoon candidate or another .750 OPS candidate with above average defense Bader doesn’t seem like a logical platoon candidate to me.
O’Neill can play CF and hits righties much better than Bader. His OPS vs. RHP at Memphis this past year was 1.066. It would be another way to get his bat into the lineup if LF and RF are blocked.
Lane Thomas could be an option as well not too far down the road. His RHP OPS at Memphis was .909 and at Springfield was .832. His defense is also very good.
I am not saying either is a guarantee, but I do believe there are options to consider if needed.
I am wondering now that Thomas and Garcia are on a level playing field, i.e. 40 man roster spot, that Thomas might be next OFer up after O’Neill.
C27, it could have a lot to do with how they look in spring training and open the season with Memphis. Garcia had a really rough start to 2018, but came on later. Thomas emerged with a good start at Springfield.
We also shouldn’t forget about the LHH OF Justin Williams. He will certainly get a chance in his first spring as a Cardinal.
It may also depend on the positional need at the time of the opening, as Williams and Garcia are really corner guys, while Thomas is a legitimate CF who can play all over. Of course, they are all behind O’Neill in the pecking order.
If ONeill sits in AAA, then who is the backup CFer?
Fowler? Ozuna?
If Fowler is our backup Cfer and Gyorko is our backup SS we are in for a world of trouble
If we could snag a backups catcher who can play SS or CF or both then things would be easier…but they are rare and Kifer-Falefa from TEX seems the only option
any bench must have the following: (if the other starting players cant cover, which iis our case)
back up catcher
backup CF (presumably can also serve as a backup LF/RF too)
backup SSthey are the key defensive positions where subpar play shows itself more blatantly
currently we have one covered (Pena for backup catcher)
backup CF options:
ONeill (which he isnt perfect for but would be serviceable in part time duty)
Munoz? he did go out there last year, but his perfromancve was not great…
AdGarcia?
D.Robinson?
-Fowler and Ozuna showed no reason to think they are capable of this last yearbackup SS options:
Munoz
Sosa
Edman
-Gyorko was not good at SS when we thought he could do it 2 years ago and that seems to have only been validated by the lack of his playing time there last year which all but was eliminated if i rememberJMart and Gyorko fulfill neither of the needs for a bench role on the team and while there is ONE free spot to fill with a non essential defensive position…there is not TWO
So…one of Gyorko or JMart have to go…or we find a backup catcher who can cover one of SS or CF
Pena
Gyorko
JMartthat leaves one spot…
now one could argue Munoz fulfills multiple roles at CF and SS so he slides in…therefore moving ONeill to AAA
that is true…maybe that is the plan… but that seems pretty risky to me, Maybe Munoz is better in CF than he showed…probably is…but that is not a lot of confidence….i was impressed by his SS work and 3b work…
to me Gyorko goes…he is a short term rental for a team with an up and coming prospect or an injury at 3b…he is replaced with Munoz and ONeill slides in
however I woudl also target Falefa or AStudillo for backup catcher anyways…using Gyorko and some others to make it happen…
For me:
EITHER
-Gyorko + Woodford + Poncedeleon + Mayers to Twins for AStudillo + Rogers
or
-Gyorko + Woodford + Mayers for Kiner-Falefa from TEXthen go with a bench of:
-Kiner-Falefa (C/SS/3b/CF,SB threat), ONeill (CF,power), JMart (RF/DH/1b,power), Munoz (SS,3b,2b,OF)
or
-AStudillo (C/3b/OF, contact pinch hitter extraordinaire), ONeill (CF,power), JMart (RF/DH/1b,power), Munoz (SS/3b/2b/OF)That lacks a lefty off the bench but is mitigated by the excellent hitting prowess by Astudillo and JMart. BUT also could be mitigated by Fowler moving to the bench and ONeill playing more in RF. Fowler’s switch hitting ability and lefty power has value in a bench role even if he gets usurped by ONeill)
right now the bench MUST be seen as:
Pena (C)
JMArt
Gyorko
Munoz (CF/SS)That assumes a whole heck of a lot out of FOwler in RF being good, JMart backing up Fowler in RF, Munoz playing good CF defense. Not mentioning that Oneill seems like he proved he is ready for the big leagues already and AAA really has nothing to challenge him anymore.
Someone has to go or we need to see some real creativity from the FO to find a backup catcher solution that can ease the backup defensive positions better
The mere fact that they’ve declared not an open competition for right field — no, not that, can’t have that — but rather that the suddenly sensitive Dexter Flower, that delicate depressive personage, will instead be handed the starting job right now, is in and of itself ample evidence to me that the organization is prioritizing Dexter’s happiness to a literally insane degree.
Bob, I think what the organization is prioritizing is their financial investment in the player. If he wasn’t making significant money on a long term deal they wouldn’t give a crap about his feelings. It is the same reason they keep running Cecil out there. You can never underestimate payroll politics when it comes to roster decisions and playing time.
It is definitely a chicken-and-egg problem. The player demonstrated success in the past to justify the contract. Now, he isn’t earning it. Which is the fluke? The balance is tipped in the direction of the large financial commitment made. Logical, though infuriating to some.
But again, for me the real question is how long they go with it if there is not marked improvement. CC mentioned what I thought was a reasonable stair-step scenario, though without a timetable.
Not to mention, it doesn’t exactly make you a free agent destination if you are purged the moment you aren’t as valuable as your contract…unless you’re in the Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox level of payroll.
That said, I’d be pretty upset if Fowler is still starting in mid June if he’s hitting .200 with a .600 OPS again.
Speaking of Justin Williams, I thought it odd that 1) Tampa Bay had Williams up for 1 at bat, but that is their decision. 2) The Cards didn’t call up Williams instead of adding Garcia to the roster. Did TB burn an option with him?
1) Rays CF Kevin Kiermaier had a minor foot injury that kept him out over a weekend in July. So they called up Williams as a fill in reserve.
2) Agreed and yes, but the option was already burned in April. Williams had to be added to their 40-man in November 2017 for Rule 5 protection.P.S. In defense of the Cards, in early August, Williams had just arrived and Garcia was on fire. He was the July Pacific Coast League Player of the Month and the Player of the Month for the whole system, so they probably wanted to see if Garcia could bring some of that with him. The record confirms he did not.
Though there were many moving parts in between, one could draw the conclusion that by adding Garcia to the 40-man early, the ultimate cost was losing Conner Greene via waivers.
The FO and Shildt will play Fowler even if he’s hitting .200. They’ll say its an improvement over his ’18 numbers. Same goes for Cecil even if he is ineffective.
IMO, Mozeliak is hellbent on wishing and hoping that both will earn the money he wasted on them and then having them play out their contracts. This coming from the people who say that they will build a team that will compete for October games every season. Talking about improving the bullpen and adding another infielder means little if are are losing games due to the philosophy of catering to overpaid players no matter what it costs the organization.
I say this because certain younger and better players are on the bench or wasting time at AAA because of this unwillingness to admit their mistakes.
Nyquist…I disagree that they will stick with Fowler all season (or Cecil) if they are truly that bad. Did the team not admit the Holland mistake last year?
Holland’s contract was up at the end of the season plus the fan base was screaming to get rid of him. Mozeliak tends not to act but rather to react.
Jen L has a mini Q&A with three questions. Her assumption is that Martinez will still be traded. She also assumes Robinson over Munoz on the bench.
❓ Will Alex Reyes start or relieve?
❓ Will Dakota Hudson compete for a starter spot?
❓ What's the outlook for Nolan Gorman?#STLCards beat reporter @LangoschMLB answers questions about @Cardinals prospects in her latest Inbox: https://t.co/DaEYjnTaf3 pic.twitter.com/VmgZwk2hEz— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) January 4, 2019
thejager
If ONeill sits in AAA, then who is the backup CFer?
Fowler? Ozuna?
If Fowler is our backup Cfer and Gyorko is our backup SS we are in for a world of trouble
Firstly, there is the 4th bench spot that is up for grabs and, as of today, it’s between O’Neill, Munoz, and Robinson. That player would likely backup CF and/or SS in the case of the latter two.
With a 10-day DL, I disagree with you, jager, that we would be in a world of hurt. A backup would only be use in these instances in the event of an in-game injury.
The fact is, that the opening day roster, pencilled-in here in January, without a doubt, will not be healthy by opening day or through April. In that event, O’Neill or Munoz or Robinson or Urias or Sosa would be brought up to supplement whoever wins out that 4th bench spot. Likewise, any injury would result in a quick DL stint and call-up to fill the void.
Otherwise, I want DeJong starting as many games as possible. I want Bader to do the same.
I want Dejong and Bader to play as much as possible as well.
But every team gets players rest. And any game where we start Gyorko at SS or Fowler/Ozuna In CF is a dangerous game for team defense.
But the fact as of now is either Munoz or ONeill will be in AAA to start the year.
And either one of CF or SS will have a bad to very bad backup.
Neither Munoz nor ONeill deserve to be in AAA.
ONeill looks like the man out as of now because he can play CF and SS it seems
But I think it’d be hard to find anyone who think a ONeill should be in AAA
And I believe anyone who thinks Guorko should be anywhere near SS even as a backup is a bad idea
Pena lock
Jmart lock
Gyorko lockThere is one spot for two KEY defensive backup positions. And a key part of any bench is defensive backups at positions.
If the comfortability with using 10 day DL was as high as you day PADS then why do I see no team doing it that way let alone the Cardinals who seem to pride themselves on defense and flex. Which is why we see Greg Garcia’s stick around so long. Or same goes for so many teams having purely defensive minded CFers like Shane Robinson’s and the similar clones stick around so long.
Either JMart or Gyorko go or we are looking at a poor defensively constructed 25 man team.
I believe the FO when they went with Shildt and went with Bader and Wong and Carp at 1b decided defense was more important than hitting.
Going with poor options to backup even one key defensive positions goes directly against that line of thinking they established. Especially when you have two MLB ready and proven players that can do it without doing so.
Moving Gyorko or JMart does not mean throwing them away. But their value and our depth seems to mitigate their value at the expense of a soundly constructed defensive team depth.
Guorko is a rental but has value as quality bench or part time regular. Jmart is a DH who is passable Rf 1bman who can take and is cheap.
Both have value and we shouldn’t have a hard time finding a partner as long as we don’t overvalue their value to us when deciding how much we expect back
Analytics is part of the reason we see messes like this. The stat sheet guys insist that starters only see a lineup two or three times. That means you have to have an eight man bullpen which means only four bench players. The only way it works is if your bench players are swiss army knives.
GS, are the stat sheet guys correct?
How many batters did our SP’s face on avg last season? Somewhere between the 18 and 27 batters you spoke of?Bravo Bob Reed! This is why I enjoy reading your posts…..intelligent content.
I too was livid about the Fowler signing; Here’s an oft-injured, aging vet, with chronic feet problems, poor defensively in CF, being signed for 5 years with a no-trade. Insanity, plus stupidity equals Mozeliak’s work as a GM.
I wish I could say I was as learned of Bader’s talents as you, but that would be a lie. I’m flabbergasted by the man’s immense talents.
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