2019 closer/relievers thread – Miller + ?

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This topic contains 259 replies, has 35 voices, and was last updated by Avatar Bob Reed 10 months, 1 week ago.

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  • #78573
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    CariocaCardinal
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    So because a FA player doesn’t have a contract yet for next season means they are bad? Britton? Robertson? Harper?

    #78576
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    So because a FA player doesn’t have a contract yet for next season means they are bad? Britton? Robertson? Harper?

    I suppose I could play your game and claim that you are saying that Holland is equal to the player that Bryce Harper is. I won’t, because I know you don’t mean that. And, in turn, obviously you understand the difference in what I was saying, you just wanted a “gotcha” moment.

    Holland, last year, couldn’t find anyone willing to pay him until almost the end of Spring Training. Do you think that the three you named will have that happen?

    It could be that he’s not signed because he’s expecting to get paid like the guy he was in Washington, and he’s pouring through all of the offers trying to find the right one for him and his family.

    Or it could be that he wasn’t very well thought of last year (other than by, apparently, Mike Matheny, God of Bullpens) and he still isn’t well thought of this year.

    Carioca, how much would you be willing to sign him for if you ran a team?

    #78581
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    CariocaCardinal
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    My guess is Boras is letting Miller, Britton, and Robertson set the market. That is a standard play for him. My guess is Holland gets about $3-5 million guaranteed plus large incentives with either a player option or a vesting option. The only reason it is not higher is the large number of quality relievers on the market this year. There are those I mentioned plus Kimbril, Kelly, Ottavino, Familia, Allen. Sorria, Herrera and others. Teams are waiting to see who is without a chair so they can pick up bargain.

    Pointing out someone’s faulty logic is not playing “gotcha”. It is pointing out someone’s faulty logic.

    #78587
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    CardsFanInChiTown
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    This has nothing to do with adding someone, just thinking the BP could actually big a big plus this year.

    An often forgotten piece of the BP that could have a huge bounce back and be one of the 7th, 8th, 9th inning guys is Dominic Leone. He had a 2.56 ERA and a 2.94 FIP with 10.3 K/9 in the AL east just two years ago. Injuries are possibly to blame for the drop off in 2018 and then add in the new environment adjustments and he could be in line for a big year.

    Gallegos is another one to watch as well to break out. I’ve read two articles where he was being compared to David Robertson. He hasn’t done much or had much of a chance in MLB so far, but in AAA he has a 1.99 ERA and 12.9 K/9. That obviously won’t translate to MLB right away, but he could be a great 5th, 6th, 7th inning bridge guy.

    #78589
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    My guess is Holland gets about $3-5 million guaranteed plus large incentives with either a player option or a vesting option. The only reason it is not higher is the large number of quality relievers on the market this year.

    So you have him making a fraction of what Joe Kelly and Joakim Soria have already signed for, but you also think he’s unsigned because of all the great relievers out there who need to set the market first.

    Got it.

    If he signs for $5 million or less, then the point stands – he’s not being valued by his time in Washington. He’s being valued by what kind of pitcher he is now, which is a guy who used to be good.

    #78592
    stlcard25
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    An often forgotten piece of the BP that could have a huge bounce back and be one of the 7th, 8th, 9th inning guys is Dominic Leone. He had a 2.56 ERA and a 2.94 FIP with 10.3 K/9 in the AL east just two years ago. Injuries are possibly to blame for the drop off in 2018 and then add in the new environment adjustments and he could be in line for a big year.

    Leone is a guy I’m interested in seeing as well. His K and BB rates were similar to his stellar 2017, and his velocity was fine. He did give up a lot of home runs, but that can be volatile from year to year.

    #78593
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    CariocaCardinal
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    I’ll easily wager he makes more than $5 million next year by the time his incentives and/or buyouts kick in.

    And to set the record straight I never asserted he was still a top notch reliever. I merely pointed out that a player not being signed at this point is not necessarily a reflection of a player’s ability or worth. If you want to debate my point with me I’m in. You trying to debate a point with me that I didn’t make seems pretty silly doesn’t it?

    #78596
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    CariocaCardinal
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    Being reported that the Mets passed on Miller due to medical concerns but at the same time it was said that it was the Mets’ team surgeon that gave Miller a clean bill of health (and it was implied in the media that the Cardinal’s relied on that medical report at least initially).

    #78602
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    mudville
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    I thought that the reason Holland signed so late was, first, because Boras was stubbornly insisting on a 4 yr/$64M contract for a 32 year old pitcher who had some injury concerns, and secondly, because some of the fo’s around MLB are starting to be more thoughtful about how they throw money around in free agency. If Boras would have been willing to accept, say, 2 yrs./$30M, some club might have signed him at the winter meetings. Of course, we’ll never know that for sure. But we do know that, statistically, Holland was one of the best. And most would not consider a pitcher washed up at the age of 32.

    #78608
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    CariocaCardinal
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    I think there are going to be some quality RH relievers who end up signing cheap this year. Just too many on the market. What scares me is a team like Milwaukee could come in and scoop up the right 3-4 relievers cheaply and become a contender

    #78612
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    Bob Reed
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    Please don’t take this as a criticism, CC. But why do you believe that the Brewers aren’t already contenders?

    Not only did they of course win the Central in 2018, they also led the N.L. in victories, didn’t lose much to free agency, and could get Jimmy Nelson back in 2019. (I know, it’s probably just that you and I differ somewhat in our use of the word “contender.” I suspect you’re more strict than I.)

    At any rate, here are the very latest World Series favorites at Sportsbetting.ag

    Dodgers… 6-1
    Red Sox… 7-1
    Astros… 7-1
    Yankees… 7-1
    Cards… 12-1
    cubs… 12-1
    Brewers… 12-1
    Braves… 14-1
    Injuns… 14-1
    Phils… 16-1
    Nationals… 20-1
    Rockies… 25-1
    Mets… 28-1

    https://www.sportsbetting.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/mlb-futures

    So 3 of the top 4 are A.L. franchises, but 8 of the next 9 are N.L.. And I can’t disagree. But it’s still rather weird to see the odds reflect this peculiar reality. The numbers are generally about right, I’d say. And IF the Birds add Yusei Kikuchi in the next week or so, they become the division favorites in my mind. (Obviously the same could be said for the Brewers, unfortunately.)

    #78614
    Brian Walton
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    Thanks for sharing the odds. Though probably already obvious, there are two other events coming that will shift those numbers more than bargain reliever signings – Machado and Harper choosing their new homes.

    #78627
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    I think there are going to be some quality RH relievers who end up signing cheap this year. Just too many on the market.

    I suspect you are right on that. The problem with relievers, though, is that their results are so volatile. But if someone swoops in and hits on a couple, they could make pretty valuable and cheap flips in July. And, as you mentioned, there is also the chance that a contender could fill out it’s bullpen and get 8th inning production for middle relief money – and that is the type of thing that can propel a team into a championship.

    The reliever market is not an easy one to shop, but there is definitely value to be had (along with the big mistakes to be made).

    #78652
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    14NyquisT
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    It will be totally interesting to see how the betting line moves with the Harper and Machado signings. “Thou shalt not argue with the betting line”.

    #78658
    Brian Walton
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    I cannot speak for others, but for me, the betting line reflects the sentiment of those who feel strongly enough about their beliefs to back it up with money. For that reason, it is interesting to watch. I don’t consider it the definitive measure for sure.

    #79035
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    Cardinals27
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    Layne and Cervenka look like sleeper candidates to make the team. Both pitched very well and had their career best year numbers wise in the minors. Cervenka cut back on his walks. Granted, they will face stiff competition. But being left handed increases their chances,

    #79187
    Brian Walton
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    #79191
    BlackHillsCard
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    Well the Cardinals (or at least whoever runs their twitter account) seems to like the idea of Zach Britton returning to the Yankees.

    #79192
    Brian Walton
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    I also noticed they re-tweeted that and I found it odd.

    #79207
    stlcard25
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    Good signing for the Phillies.

    #79256
    stlcard25
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    Craig Kimbrel’s market is described as…

    “Crazy low,” one American League executive said. “The support that you have [in organizations] to pay people is getting worse. Feels like a war coming if the sight lines donk’t change for the better.”

    https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/drellich-where-craig-kimbrels-market

    Relievers are always a risk but if his market falls to where 3 years and $45 million or so becomes a possibility, do you go for it?? There aren’t many, if any, better closers out there.

    #79282
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    wagee12
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    Yes on Kimbrel for that kind of money.

    #79290
    jj-cf-stl
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    If there is 3/45 available, I’d rather they offer Mikolas a 2/45mil extension (2020-2021).

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 1 week ago by jj-cf-stl jj-cf-stl.
    #79335
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    #79342
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    Bob Reed
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    I like the Redbird deal for Miller more than the Yankee Britton deal. Robertson’s deal is preferable to both, but that’s mostly moot since he was reported to strongly favor east coast teams — in much the same way that Kikuchi unfortunately was rumored to like the left coast best.

    Question is, who do the Cards target for the bullpen now? Because it is NOT good enough yet. Not enough quality or depth. Not when you figure that (1)at least one bullpen candidate and possibly two from among Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon, and maybe even Dakota Hudson, will need to stay stretched out as a starter in Triple-A, and (2)some guy or guys will come up with a bum flipper during Spring Training.

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 1 week ago by Avatar Bob Reed.
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