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There has been some discussion in Cardinalland about Jen’s “inside” prediction:
There were some interesting names left off of Langosch’s projected 25-man roster for Opening Day. In particular, Langosch highlighted Austin Gomber, Alex Reyes, Jose Martinez, Yairo Munoz, Daniel Poncedeleon, and Luke Gregerson as names she believed would not be on the St. Louis Cardinals 25-man roster on Opening Day.
I thought it might make for some interesting opinions here at TCN.
In case you missed it:
https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/news/cardinals-inbox-early-look-at-25-man-roster/c-302379446
Okay, I’ll bite. If she’s right it’ll almost surely mean that (1)everyone’s healthy, (2)Tyler O’Neill is the 4th outfielder, and (3)Jose Martinez was traded for a much-needed relief pitcher.
Those would all be very positive developments.
Will they all come true? I think Ponce last year showed that he was done with the minors, nothing much really left to learn. Looks like a classic case of “decent starting MILB starting pitcher becomes solid reliever in the majors.” So I think he makes the team.
Who would be dislodged then? Probably Leone, possibly Shreve. (Man would I love to hear a Redbird manager, coach, or executive at any level, just come out and say: “We don’t have to have multiple lefties in the bullpen. Not if the righties we have are very good, and can get lefty batters out.” It would be such a magical commonsense moment.)
Jen L. lists Drew Robinson as a bench guy. Which reminds me of another quote I’d like to see: “Yes, Drew Robinson hits left-handed. but he’s has never hit major league pitching, not even a little, and he hasn’t hit this Spring Training. So we decided to go another direction for the bench. After all, handedness barely matters, really. And doesn’t matter at all, compared to talent.”
I understand about a team potentially being too left-handed in hitters — because lefty bats can often be exploited when they face the real tough lefty arms. But the same is just not true of righty bats. True righty platoon hitters are much rarer than their lefty counterparts. So I think people (incl. the Redbird front office) are far too preoccupied with the idea of a lefty bench bat. If he stinks, what the heck good is it that he bats from one side or the other?
Now I hasten to add that Robinson was worth a shot in the dark. He’s hit in AAA, no doubt about it. But if he doesn’t hit in Spring Training, after failing so dismally last year in MLB, then send someone else north with the team. Maybe they got another Hazelbaker, we’ll see. But if not, then let’s hope they don’t shoehorn him into the roster due to nothing more than handedness. That would be silly. To me.
I think she isnt too far off…but i am leaning towards Gyorko being gone…and Munoz’s SS and CF possibility (using ST and the every day playing he will undoubtedly get) being the way we go
Someone will need a veteran 3b/2bman with pop for he bench or as a spot starter due to injury or youngsters being close
JMart still seems a good possibility of being gone TOO though, there are definitely still teams looking at DHs and for as bad as we think he was, he is passable in RF and not the worse 1b ever (if used sporadically)
I think the team would like to go Robinson and Munoz with ONeill and Pena…but i think we will probably end up with only one of Robinson or Munoz… and the winner of ST positional flex and hitting will win the spot…but they gotta show skill at SS and CF…something that Munoz has already shown even if it was not always great…with focus he may very well be the guy to beat…i think his offense PLUS his flex gives him the edge going into ST… Unless Robinson rakes against righties and is passable against lefties AND proves his value in the field…
as for he pitchers…i think she is pretty close… but i am torn on Shreve/Webb/Cecil/Gregerson for 2 spots…. I think it really comes down to ST… if Luke and Brett dont show up…i think they are gone…but if they are good or even close…then i think the FO will take the chance on losing Shreve…
I think RPs in ST are really hard to evaluate with the who players face and situations being ridiculous in ST… so what i think will probably happen is that Cecil and Luke are not absolutely terrible…and the FO will roll the dice….and unless Shreve is godly, their contracts will give them opening day spots…
however…Hudson opening up in the pen isnt a slam dunk to me… i coudl see Shreve sneaking in and Hudson going to AAA to start…
As Robert said though… that means everyone will stay healthy…which wont happen…
for me: (what i think will likely happen not necessarily what i am wanting)
Wong, Bader, Yadi, Goldy, Carp, Ozuna, DeJong, Fowler
ONeill, Munoz, JMart, Pena
CMart, Mik, Wacha, Jack, Waino
Miller, Hicks, Brebbia, Leone, Gant, Gregerson, Shreve, MayersFun to think about though, the big battles at it stands seem to be:
Munoz vs Robinson
Waino vs the field, (Reyes, Gomber, Ponce, Gant)
Cecil vs Webb and Shreve and Genesis
Gregerson vs Mayersalso of interest:
Wacha vs the field too
Pena vs anyone else invited and not named Knizner
Fowler vs ONeill and JMart
Edman, Sosa, Urias vs Robinson and Munoz
Miller vs Hicks vs the field…who is closingThej… I thought you would have some notes to relay. My thing is at this point… Spring training will tell the tale. Plus there will be bumps and bruises, tears and pulls.
ST always goes sideways for good and for bad…but when several folks try to crystal ball it many of the same themes emerge
as for heading down this year…im really trying…but i got a bunch of work pressed onto me for this first quarter which is out of the norm and while tough is really exciting…im still hoping for a cheap flight weekend at least…we will see
I’d say that the opening day roster is pretty well set at this point, less a bullpen spot? Monday the Commish predicted his starting lineup as:
1 Carpenter
2 Goldschmidt
3 DeJong
4 Ozuna
5 Molina
6 Fowler*
7 Bader*
8 Wong*My hope is that either Fowler, Bader or Wong shows enough at ST to merit the #2 spot. IMO that would put those below in their rightful order.
Should we head North with the announced rotation intact, that leaves Gant, Gomber, Poncedeleon, Hudson and Reyes as alternates. We’d only need one to really step up to become a standout #6 (or #5 should things go sour). And one other to be next up after 6. So I don’t see another starter being added to the roster.
I count 10 relievers right now, plus potentially 2 or 3 of the starting candidates that won’t fit into the rotation sweepstakes. I think that we have five givens so that leaves seven for three spots. If only three come out of ST looking good, plus one/two for potential injuries, we’re set… actually overstocked.
We’d still need to struggle to find spot for the others in the organization or part ways.
I didn’t even mention a great ST for a couple of Memphis boys, forcing other decisions to be made. I’ve seen many times that the set roster becomes something other than the one we are looking at now in Jan.
Unless we sign both Harper and Machado and acquire Arenado in a blockbuster deal with Colorado, I do not see any set of circumstances where Goldy hits in any spot other than #3. Matter of fact, I’ll donate $10 to Nyquist’s favorite charity in his name, for any and all 2019 games where Goldy starts and does not hit out of the 3 hole.
Lineup I’d like to see:
Against RHP:
3B Carp
SS Dejong (if he hits like I think he will this year)
1B Goldy
LF Ozuna
C Yadi
RF Fowler/Jmart/O’Neill hit 5th if starting
2B Wong
CF BaderAgainst LHP
3B Carp
CF Bader
1B Goldy
LF Ozuna
RF O’Neill/Jmart
SS Dejong
2B Gyorko
C YadiThe general consensus among P-D staff is that Schildt will hit Goldy 2nd in the order although I would rather see him hit 3rd. I think your big RBI man needs to hit 3rd but that is just me.
That will be absolute bull schildt if our skipper ensconces Goldy in that 2 slot, Scotty! That’s about as nonsensical as Mad Dog Maddon hitting Rizzo leadoff.
I agree Pugs. There is no way that Goldschmidt should hit 2nd. If the manager puts him there he doesn’t understand baseball.
Then again, we don’t have a typical leadoff hitter either. And nor do we have a typical #2 hitter either. But NO WAY should Goldschmidt hit in the #2 slot. I’d almost slate him at cleanup. 3rd or 4th is where he belongs.
r/Rat
Pugs…. make your check out to “The 14Nyguist get ahead charitable fund” or the New Rochelle ASPCA shelter.
ps: my brother Pugsley, I was only going with what I was seeing. My thoughts on batting orders are: it doesn’t really matter where, but instead who is in it.
I have no intention of ever rattling your chain, Capech.
From “Birds on the Black”:
PECOTA believes in Jack Flaherty
Jack Flaherty is projected to be the best pitcher on staff, and throw close to 170 innings with an ERA of 3.28. I am a Miles Mikolas believer, I think he should have the ball on Opening Day, but those are numbers we absolutely accept from Flaherty in his sophomore campaign.
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