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Rarely do you see a prospect produce this at the highest level of the minor leagues –
.331/.372/.532/.905
20 HRs and 87 RBI in 109 gamesMy vote for #3 is for Alec Burleson.
My #3 is Tink Hence. He is my top ranked pitcher. And unless he is converted to a reliever. He has plus velocity, good control. And 3 plus pitches. Graceffo, to me, is more advanced, but has slightly less of a ceiling. Hopefully Graceffo and Hence can anchor our rotation for the next 5 or 6 years.
This is a close call. To me, it comes down to ceiling, probability of reaching that ceiling, and performance thus far.
I think #3 is Graceffo.
I feel Liberatore and Herrera both made strides last year. I can still see a world where Liberatore’s command improves enough that he avoids those four or five outings that seem to shape our perspectives.
If Herrera’s power continues to develop, he will be everything we dreamed on when ranking him in past years.
Graceffo appears to me to be the real deal. I couldn’t find a flaw in his performances each time I saw him.
Graceffo seems to have made a huge jump. Hence is still far from even being in a position to prove his value due to inning limitations.
Tough call, but I will stay with Liberatore because I still see top of the rotation stuff at times on the MLB level, and Burleson’s ceiling isn’t nearly that high, and his path is just as crowded as Liberatore’s.Liberatore at 3.
Roughly halfway through the 3rd round voting, it’s –
Graceffo – 9
Burleson – 3
Hence – 2
Liberatore – 1Can I jump in? I have Graceffo #3. He checks all the boxes to remain a starter and might even have #2 upside in a big league rotation. Four pitch mix and the command to throw them all for strikes. I like the make up. Look forward to seeing Graceffo and McGreevy dominating in the Springfield (or maybe even Memphis) rotation to start the year.
They both should move on from Springfield. Pallante leap frogged Liberatore, and Graceffo could,also.
Very good insight on Bernal Bob Reed, thank you for the depth of that post. The “small sample size” likely hurts Hence in the same way in the national rankings the same way.
I’m going with Hence #3…I think the ceiling is too exciting. He’s more than held his own in Arizonaz even if it’s short outings.
I like Graceffo as a #3 type, which makes him a very solid #4 for me.
A hard one to place will be Baez, our 2nd rounder from 2021 draft, signed for $2 Million I believe. After his second year in the organization, we only have a couple months of games to go on, split between the complex league and low A.
He hit decently in low A over 79 PAs, .957 OPS, but his BABiP was an absurdly unsustainable .484 and he struck out 38% of the time. He’s 19 so I guess that is age appropriate for low A now days. Last summer when he came on board Brian slid him into the #9 slot in the rankings. He opened this year at #12, then was out until the end of July with a reported sprained left wrist, and just played in August and half of September until the season ended. Played mostly RF and a little CF, so he must be at least an ok fielder.
In 2021 he didn’t play initially, until the beginning of August, and then hit .158 in the complex league. If memory serves, we didn’t know the reason why he wasn’t playing in games initially, and I don’t know if we ever found out.
Graceffo. Got the 97+ heat and the secondary pitches and control. Hence could jump to #1 this year, but he is going to have to pitch more than 50 pitches as a reliever. Graceffo stats thru 50 pitches are awesome as well. Burleson is right up there, but raw tools of Graceffo gives him the edge.
Okay folks, Gordon Graceffo has been elected our #3 prospect.
#1) Jordan Walker
#2) Masyn Winn
#3) Gordon GraceffoThe voting is now open for #4.
So this one is tough. Burleson was so good this year and last. But what is his MLB ceiling? Probably a 125 WRC+ hitting and a little below average fielding everyday outfielder. And that would be really good. But I think most likely he’s a slightly plus MLB hitter whose a slightly below average outfielder. And that’s pretty ehhh. Whereas Hence best case scenario is an ace starter, but his floor is probably bullpen 8th inning setup. And he’s so far away that we really don’t know the most likely scenario. There’s also Herrera and Baez, but I don’t think we can put either above Burleson or Hence because of the latter two’s far better seasons. So I’ll go with Hence given the higher ceiling but I certainly would be perfectly ok if Burleson is chosen.
Does anyone have info on Tink’s actual spin rates?
I would be so thrilled if his curve matched Liberatore’s.
If his breaking pitch is superior to a top 100 prospect at 20 years old, he is truly special.I’ll take Tink at #4, please.
There were 1,862 minor leaguers in 2022 who threw at least 40 innings. Tink ranked 7th in ERA, at 1.38. And he was first in FIP with a 1.59. (It’s just a bit more difficult to have a microscopic FIP than ERA.)
That 1.59 FIP is the lowest by a teenager in full-season baseball since at least 2005 (again, minimum 40 innings). That’s as far back as Fangraphs’ database goes, I’m afraid.
Don’t know about his spin rates, Nigel, but I do know his swinging strike rate was elite. Not far behind mega-prospects Eury Perez and Andrew Painter, and distinctly better than Grayson Rodriguez, Mick Abel, and Kyle Harrison. (These are 5 of the top 6 pitching prospects per Fangraphs. And at MLB.com all of them except Mick Abel are among the overall top 25 prospects.)
Tink is high risk, of course. Even more than most pitchers, as he barely threw any formal innings in 2020 or 2021. But he doesn’t really have a ceiling in my opinion, so there’s only 15-17 minor league pitchers I prefer to him. I look forward to seeing him in Peoria come Spring.
The issue I have with ranking Hence above Burleson is that for most of the year, Hence was limited to 50 pitches per game. He was barely seeing hitters twice in a game, much less three times.
I believe it was Wacha who used to be phenomenal the first time through the order, even in seasons he had an ERA of 4-5.
I’ll go with Burleson at 4.
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