Community 2023 Top 50 Prospect Voting

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Viewing 25 posts - 201 through 225 (of 335 total)
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  • #207398
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I appreciate the thoughts Jnevel. I have long been trying to dig deeper (rather than just griping). I had noticed that Parsons and Graceffo have the same line drive %, but they are very different other than that. Graceffo is a ground ball pitcher and Parsons a fly ball guy, interestingly, the same as Helsley, (both at 51% fly balls).

    But if you look at FIP, which uses as inputs those things not affected by fielding (HR, BB, K, HBP) and attempts to estimate expected ERA assuming other factors are average, Graceffo and Parsons are not radically different, with Parsons at 5.97 and Graceffo at 5.07. Helsley’s FIP was 2.34 for comparison.

    The deeper I dig, the more I think that a lot of the analytics related stats do not correlate well or consistently with results unless you cherry pick what you want to use or not use, and from that I sense that a lot of analytics based evaluation is reverse engineered, with the means of arriving at a conclusion constructed with the conclusion already in hand.

    #207399
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    #10 – Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
    #11 – Joshua Baez, OF

    #207400
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    blingboy

    But if you look at FIP, Graceffo and Parsons are not radically different, with Parsons at 5.97 and Graceffo at 5.07. Helsley’s FIP was 2.34 for comparison.

    This seems radically different to me. A full run higher. I look at ERA/FIP exponentially. 1-3 is vastly better than 3-4 and 5-7 is vastly worse than 4-5. Plus you are dismissing Graceffo’s work in A+ ball, where he had a 1.71 FIP. Full year FIP of 3.94.

    Also, prospect-wise, there’s a 4-yr age gap and Parsons is in his 2nd year of AAA vs. Graceffo’s 1st at AA.

    #207401
    1toughdominican
    Participant

    Free

    I’d say I don’t possess what could even be called fundamental knowledge in regards to Redbird affiliate prospects, so although it looks to be fun and interesting, I haven’t participated in any voting or ranking placements with you guys. What I’d be interested in knowing, is where did Brendan Donovan place in previous year’s rankings on this site? I’d have to say that of all the Cardinals who made their Big League debuts in ’22, that Donnie was far and away the guy that realized the most success at the Big League level and is a player that will likely be a Cardinal for a few years. I thought he outperformed not only all of the position players, but also all of the pitchers who broke into the Big Leagues last season. At any rate, I’d be curious to know how his potential talents were viewed prior to getting his first taste of the Big Leagues?

    #207402
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    1td… Donovan’s rankings by TCN.

    2022 – 11th
    2021 – 50th
    2020 – 39th
    2019 – NR
    2018 – NR

    #207403
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Pads, I meant radically different in comparison to Helsley or somebody like Tink Hence with FIP 1.59.

    In the case of starters, rather than dive into the stats quagmire, I mostly look at WHIP. Are the basepaths busy when they are on the mound or not. That is really the bottom line. The other thing I like to look at is pitches thrown per inning pitched, which speaks to efficiency, how deep he can go and does he let batters hang around taking cuts where they can do damage. To me it makes sense to look at those two things from one year to the next and one level to the next, and also to compare one pitcher to another. If somebody gets through innings efficiently and does not allow much traffic, that is what I am looking for. The guy who does it better is better than the guy who does it worse.

    #207404
    1toughdominican
    Participant

    Free

    Thanks, 14NyquisT. I wouldn’t have thought he’d have been near the top and I guess 11th sounds about right for prior to the ’22 season. For whatever reason, I always seem to enjoy seeing the guys who show up out of nowhere be successful.

    #207405
    1toughdominican
    Participant

    Free

    I don’t know exactly why, but every time I see the name Tink Hence, I think of Hunter Pence and every time I see the name Moises Gomez I think of Lefty Alou. Maybe I’m dyslexic?…Haha!

    #207408
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I always seem to enjoy seeing the guys who show up out of nowhere be successful.

    Yeah, that is very enjoyable. Guys like Yepez and Noot. If Gomez sustains his Lazarus act and gets a spot on the roster it will be the same. I am pulling for Loutos for that reason, although his AAA stint was concerning. The drop off from AA to AAA I mean. It will be fun to see what these guys do next year.

    #207409
    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    10. Hjerpe
    11 Bernal

    #207410
    CariocaCardinal
    Participant

    Paid - Monthly

    Bling, Just out of curiosity where do you have Parsons ranked?

    #207411
    grenadier1
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    10. Cooper Hjerpe
    11. Joshua Baez

    #207413
    Cardinals27
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Hjerpe seems a lock for #10. Wide open for #11 with Bernal by my count.

    #207414
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Bling, Just out of curiosity where do you have Parsons ranked?

    On my notes I have him in the 20ish group, with Liberatore. Both placed there based upon AAA stats over a similar number of innings. What I call trajectory favors Parsons, as he shows improvement, while Libby is the opposite. I recognize that there would be other things that favor Libby, so they I have them in the same group.

    #207415
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    blingboy

    Pads, I meant radically different in comparison to Helsley or somebody like Tink Hence with FIP 1.59.

    Gotcha. I see what you mean.

    #207416
    Bob Reed
    Participant

    Free

    (The competition of college ball is equivalent to the now-extinct short-season A-Ball level.)

    Bob, I’m curious about this statement. I would have thought that high level college ball (SEC, ACC, Pac 12) is a bit higher than that, more on the level between low A and high A. I say that because we often see mid round (4-10) college pitchers cut through low A like a hot knife through butter in their opening season.

    Anyway, is the short season A assessment something you’ve read elsewhere or just your own general ballpark?

    ————————————–

    Excellent question, 25.
    Keith Law, who’s been analyzing/ranking minor leaguers at national platforms (ESPN, The Athletic) for roughly 15-20 years now, gets asked about this very thing two or three times a year in his chats. The answer never changes: short-season ball is equivalent to Division 1 college baseball. Same answer when Longenhagen at Fangraphs is asked, I’m pretty sure.

    I was surprised the first time I saw that response, many moons ago — because like yourself, I’ve seen some college superstars enjoy immediate dominance in the minors at the A-Ball level. But as time has passed and I’ve tracked LARGE sample sizes of collegiate stars, I’ve noticed how many struggle at even the Low-A level when first exposed to that type of competition.

    Some conferences are considerably tougher than others, of course. And within the SEC, for instance, if you took the conference All-Star team in recent years, that might be a limited group who are at the Low A-Ball level talent-wise. But the thing of it is, even in the very best NCAA conferences, once you get to the 3rd and 4th starting pitchers — or even the Saturday starter for most teams — the depth just isn’t there. Not like in the pros. So the college stars can pad their numbers pretty easily.

    ————————————-

    Take JJ Bleday for the most recent supporting evidence, 25. Huge college superstar, home run king at a glamourpuss SEC school, drafted #4 overall in 2019 and immediately a consensus top 30-40 overall prospect in all the minors before he’d ever played a profession baseball game.

    His slashline for his final college season? .347/.465/.701
    His slashline in High-A right after college? .257/.311/.379
    Now, to be fair that was in the Florida State League. But still a difference of nearly 500 OPS points sums things up rather neatly. And furthermore, two years after that he still couldn’t manage a .700 OPS in Double-A.

    Again, it’s the lack of quality depth that drags down the overall talent level in college ball. Think of it like the Negro Leagues, in a way. The best Negro Leaguers were every bit as great as the best Blanco Leaguers…but the Negro Leagues on the whole weren’t as strong as their white peers simply because of the difference in depth (white leagues were drawing from 10X the population base, to field just twice as many pro teams). Similarly, pro baseball draws from all of the best available scholastic & collegiate talent. So of course there is no way possible that the SEC has ever been at any point equivalent to a Double-A league, nor anything close to it.

    Dozens of 19 and 20-year-olds playing, and playing well, at the Double-A level? C’mon. To borrow from a great medieval philosopher, that’s inconceivable!

    #207417
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Great info Bob Reed. As I remember it, high schoolers mostly started in Gulf Coast League, the best high schoolers, JC and small college started in the short season Appalachian League and college kids from bigger programs started in the NY-Penn short season league. Like you said, the stand outs might start higher. I still don’t quite see how the new arrangement is going to work out over time.

    #207422
    Cardinals27
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Will voting for 10/11 be over this evening?

    #207433
    bccran
    Participant

    27 –

    We started this round yesterday afternoon and we agreed to 48 hours per round, but we can end this round at 9pm tonight if there are no objections.

    #207450
    Nigel T
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    10 Bernal
    11 Hjerpe

    #207453
    bccran
    Participant

    Got tied up last evening. Sorry. The voting for #10 and #11 is completed.

    Applying 2 points for #10 and 1 point for #11, the final totals by my count are –

    Hjerpe – 22 points
    Bernal – 11 points
    Baez – 6 points
    Paniagua – 5 points
    Mejia – 2 points

    Hjerpe is our #10 prospect and Bernal is our #11 prospect.
    To recap the rankings so far –

    1.) Jordan Walker
    2.) Masyn Winn
    3.) Gordon Graceffo
    4.) Tink Hence
    5.) Alec Burleson
    6.) Ivan Herrera
    7.) Matt Liberatore
    8.) Michael McGreevey
    9.) Zack Thompson
    10.) Cooper Hjerpe
    11.) Leonardo Bernal

    The voting is now open for prospects #12 and #13.

    #207458
    Jnevel
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    12. Baez – I worried about him when they drafted him. I still worry about him now. He has all the physical ingredients to make a great ball player. That’s not really all it takes though is it? Can he really harness all his tools, stay healthy, and play with the grit and determination of a guy with half his talent? If you’re looking for upside though, here he is.

    13. Mejia – very young. But playing a premium position and hit well in the DSL as a boy among men (or at least very young men).

    #207460
    bccran
    Participant

    #12 – Moises Gomez – led all the minor leagues in home runs with 39 in 5 months. If he can cut down on his Ks he could be a force.

    #13 – Conner Thomas – chosen the Pitcher of the Year in the AFL this Fall, with an ERA of 1.75. Struck out 34 in 25+ innings. Developing that cutter sure made a difference. Could make the Cardinals out of Spring Training.

    #207461
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    #12 – **Paniagua**

    #13 – **Baez**

    #207462
    flood21
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    12. Paniagua

    13. Gomez

Viewing 25 posts - 201 through 225 (of 335 total)
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