[thejager]

love that we are talking Archer too

I’d think Longoria is of interest as a way to save the Rays money…he is useful but is far from our big bat we’d want

but a trade of Longoria, Colome, Archer goes a long way into making a big splash

Archer, Colome, Longoria
for?
Reyes, Hudson, Alcantara, Tuivalala, Gyorko, Sierra, Grichuk

then

Abreu
for?
Kelly, Fernandez

then

Ryan Dull (A’s RP)
for
Piscotty

Pham, Abreu, Longoria, Fowler, DeJong, Wong, Bader
Archer,CMart,Wacha,Waino/Weaver/Mikolos(2)
Colome, Gregerson, Dull, Cecil, Lyons, Brebbia, Bowman
FA catcher, JMart, Garcia, BAder, Carp
we add:
15million ish for Abreu (arb) (here until 2020)
13.5 for Longoria (here until 2023)
6.4 for Archer (here until at least 2021)
Colome…i dunno it’s his 1st year in arb…5mil?

get back:
1.3 for PIscotty
6.5 for Gyorko

that makes for addition salary total of around 32million
to add to
Mikolos 7.25
Gregerson 5.5

equalling about 45 million added before arbs of our own (taking off Grichuk)

Not a bad looking team and not bad use of money….we lose some major prospect depth but we get back parts that are young and affordable even beyond the 2 years of Abreu…
rotation is strengthened, lineup is helped and given much more consistent middle order guys, gives room in the outfield for younger guys to move up and into the lineup if need be (Bader,ONeill, AdGarcia, Azorarena, Mercado), defense is helped, Carp is moved to a super utility role which may not be a great use of him….

im babbling again… sorry

[thejager]

POllock is a good target…but isnt he a FA after this year along with the other bigs? Id think he wants to make bank in that crazy market

I do like him as a target if we can get an extension done as part of the deal…. i’d also inquire on Owings too….he’d be a great backup SS 2b and OFer with major wheels

[thejager]

If he’s the closer I’m disappointed. As a vet setup for 5.5 mil. Not bad at all.

Morrow for 11million seems an overpay for a guy whose never closed.

Trade for Colome now maybe with Archer in tow and BOOM you have an upgraded pitching staff

Snag Ozuna or Abreu and you have the offensive bump

[thejager]

2 yrs of Abreu who has been very consistent is better use of prospects tha. Donaldson’s age and one year

We have some highly regarded prospects who might not be our top prospects but might be considered high enough for the White Sox

Alcantara plus Sierra plus tuivalala?

[thejager]

The Os are at least taking calls on Machado it seems. Maybe no real chance for him but I’d call and see.

It’d be costly for the trade and you only do the trade if you’re also going to throw crazy money to get the extension on him early so it’s a big commitment but it may be worth trying. Even if expensive.

Machado trade and extension (300million plus at least probably)…Gyorko Reyes Gomber Grichuk Sierra

Trade for Ozuna…Wacha Tuivalala Voit seijas

Trade for Colome or sign two FA RPs if you can get Archer in the trade go for it. Kelly Alcantara Hudson Perez jmachado

Trade Fowler to the Jays for some salary relief maybe we can get osuna?

Trade Piscotty to A’s for Ryan Dull

Sign backup catcher hanigan

Depletes the system a lot. But sets us up not to depend on it for a while

Probably too many moving pieces. But there are good young targets out there worthy of big money and losing big prospects

Carp Pham Machado Ozuna DeJong Yadi Wong Bader
Hanigan Garcia O’Neill Jmart Valera
CMart archer Miikolos weaver Waino/flaherty
Colome osuna dull Lyons Cecil bowman Brebbia

[thejager]

also…

saw that someone wrote that Fowler would potentially be in play for trading and that the Jays woudl be a potentially good landing spot for him…(they have need in the outfield and they offered him a good contract last year)

Donaldson deal? or maybe target Stroman or Osuna? Or maybe they want to re-sign Donaldson and might let some PRY Guererro Jr. from them for an exorbitant amount…

[thejager]

To me it reads more that Gyorko may be gone… his contract and value for that contract has to be pretty tasty to a lot of teams…Carp playing 3b (whether any of you like it or not) is something the team has shown no problem in going to.

Carp’s poor last year makes him a sell low option, which if the player was middling and hadnt dealt with an injury, might have been an option….but Carp has shown the ability to hit and hit at a degree that to me doesnt scream “Sell low”….

now Gyorko…no doubt last year (and coming off the good last half the year before)…seems a sell high guy right now… and that combined with his good contract should make his value be quite high and a much better chip for trades…Carp woudl get some action but it just wouldnt be worth it given what he has shown the ability to do in the past

[thejager]

agreed CC…though his hype is also with his age and hitting prowess too…

still your point is well made

[thejager]

Are we really going to target another SP with Mikolas signed? They said he is locked in the rotation.

I am not against an upgrade to the rotation with Odo or Archer etc….but a deal of Longoria + Colome seems more likely…and we have heard interest in Colome and even a little on Longoria but barely a peep about Odo or Archer…(though im sure they’d be interested to some degree)

Longoria + Colome

then a signing or trade for another bat might work to upgrade the offense…but if Longoria is supposed to be the fear inducing middle of the order bat that is just not who he is anymore (maybe never was)

I am curious what the plan B really is for not getting Stanton…Longoria obviously doesnt seem to be the same type at all, so that would seem to me to be other impact targets

but if Longoria is only part of the solution who are the other options?

Donaldson (doesnt seem likely)
Abreu i coudl see paired with Longoria to make a nice middle of the order upgrade though…it would require moving others already in current spots)

I MAYBE see the Marlins moving Ozuna or Yelich….but i thought the whole point of trading Stanton was sso they didnt have to move all the other players…Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto, Gordon, Bour,…then adding Shaw and Arroyo from the Giants in potential deal…isnt a bad little core…if they can add a little pitching they coudl makes some waves on the earlier side…i dont think that if they miss on Stanton we should assume Ozuna or Yelich is on the table without very hefty losses to acquire them

Now should Stanton stay…then i’d be all over them for multiple players…i’d be happy to add Yelich and Ozuna and Realmuto (even for Realmuto to play 1b if it came to that)

so…..
-add Mikolas
-swing and miss on Stanton…he goes to the Giants…
-trade for Longoria and Colome (Carp or Wong or Gyorko in deal? vombined with young pitching)
-trade for Abreu (Kelly and Grichuk in deal)
-sign backup FA (Hanigan) or Rule 5 backup catcher pick
-trade Piscotty to A’s for Jorge Mateo (Speedster backup SS/OF prospect for us)

Fowler,Pham,Abreu,Longoria,DeJong,Yadi,Bader/Sierra,Wong
CMart,Wacha,Weaver,Waino,Mikolas…. Reyes, Flaherty, Hudson waiting

i dunno…

[thejager]

it seems not enough of a get for me personally.. it is better than nothing, but i thought Diaz would have been a nice handcuff for DeJong who is no guarantee to get better this next year as Diaz himself proved

we dont really have a starting SS behind DeJong now…Garcia can play it a bit, but i dont want to start GArcia…Meija looks slick but i dont trust his bat for more than part time duty…and then who?

Unless we really are planning for Cozart or another SS I don’t see the smarts in doing this until we absolutely need to.this is now the 3rd year in a row we havent had a real backup SS…and we haev been very lucky for it not to bite us in the butt as much as it could…Peralta had a nice year 2yrs back luckily and we had no backup…Diaz stepped up luckily when PErlata fell off…and Dejong stepped in luckily when Diaz fell off…

Im not saying we need Andrelton to sit on the bench, but a competent backup SS would be nice especially when we dont have any SS at any level i dont think who has a year of play at SS on the 25 man…and if DeJong is the one who does..he has what 20 games at SS before that ever?

Why do we need to chance SS defense? Diaz may not have been the best, but id feel way more comfortable having him backup SS than Garcia shoudl something happen to DeJong

just too risky..

i feel like this trade coudl have happened with the Jays or any other team interested at any time…doing it now seems odd…especially when we are looking at doing trades this offseason… don;t we want as many options for trades as possible?

There must be a logic to it…i believe that…i just dont see it…

maybe Stanton trade + Cozart signing (seeing as Cozarts market seems low and we may get him for less than he is worth)…as the means to amp the defense and the offense?
then a trade for Colome
maybe another trade for an SP?

i dunno…

as yet we have only seen one move that is part of the offseason plan:
-trading Diaz (i guess for salary relief and a 40man spot)

the only other move we know of is inquiring on Colome and going after Stanton

[thejager]

Wiley…he’s not a bad vet option, but i like Hanigan better, good defense, some pop in the bat, younger than Ruiz, knows his role, and played enough last year to feel confident enough to depend on him for a larger stretch if need be

I like Ruiz, i just think we might be able to get Hanigan on a minor league contract and i feel at his age Ruiz might want more of a sure thing or else he can just retire, Hanigan i think still might think he can earn a bigger role given the chance

[thejager]

GscottAr

It doesn’t add up to 350million

[thejager]

No wonder we aren’t getting more push from the Marlins if it is just center d around more money and Sandy. I like Sandy a lot but he isn’t going to make anyone go out of their way to help us.

Centered around him seems to indicate anything else is a probably lesser in value. So unless it’s a huge haul of lesser prospects I can’t imagine our offer is as overwhelming

[thejager]

Shoot for the moon and get Archer too…add Stanton separately and deal with the salary and prospect fallout as it comes…just be sure not to give up one of Weaver/Reyes/Flaherty as we will need at least one of those for the rotation next year

but you’d add:
-a legit #1/2 SP
-a legit shut down closer
-a legit albeit a little older 3b who has a good glove and power in the bat enough to help protect anyone
-an MVP level scary bat

that revamps the team and addresses all the issues we have. We may lose a huge chunk of our best young talent and probably some decent MLBers too, but we’d get back the type of players who don’t require us to NEED that level of prospect talent. It would be pushing a lot of chips in, but the talent you;;d get back would be worth it

250million + Flaherty + Gomber + Grichuk + Wong
for
Stanton + Gordon

Reyes + Kelly + Bader + Alcantara + Diaz + Gyorko + GGarcia + Seijas
for
Archer + Colome + Longoria

CMart,Archer,Weaver,Wacha,Waino/Hudson/Lyons/FA
Gordon,Pham,Stanton,Longoria,Fowler,DeJong,Yadi,Carp
FA catcher,Sierra,Meija,JMart,Piscotty
Colome,Lyons,Brebbia,Cecil,Bowman,Tuivalala,Sherriff/AAA/FA

Colome + Longoria would be ok with me too…but i’d hope we’d find a way to get another bat like Abreu

[thejager]

Read Marlins lowered their asking take from the Giants to take on 250million of the 295million

that implies they wanted them to take on more and got turned down it seems…it also probably means the Cardinals werent going to take more than 250million either

youd have to think 250million is the max anyone has to take on at this point…at least if the Fish are getting back the quality of Panik (while losing Gordon)…and 2 of their top 5 prospects

i cant imagine the Cardinals are offering “less” value than the Giants at this point

id happily take on 250million…that’s 25m max per year…if we take on Gordon too… if we swapped Wong for Gordon i’d think that is an equivalent of Panik…and if we offered Flaherty + Bader or Sierra or Grichuk would easily best their prospect offerings

unless of course the only reason they are lowering the ask is that Stanton has said NO to us no matter what…

either our offer isnt as good as we think we will offer when it comes to whom we offer (ie. “just” Sandy)…or we are being really stingy on how much money we will take on…but id haev to think 45million off seems a given at this point

i dunno…im getting more and more pessimistic that we have any chance at all and arent on Stanton’s list…and the Fish are just leading us along to get the Giants or another team to up their offer knowing we have no chance

[thejager]

i get that argument…but ONE good year of Pham and his age and injuries despite his control does not make up for the growth i have seen in Ozuna….

i dont see equal value

now Wong vs Gordon..i can see the equal value less cost thing…you could argue Wong is cheaper and younger but Gordon is better if not older and more expensive…

Ozuna alone doesnt fix their problems with money…and Ozuna AND Stanton leaves them without anything for their fans to get excited about for the next 2 years…

they can get far more value out of Ozuna at the deadline this year AND he will still help draw some kind of crowd…

Stanton
Prado
Ziegler
Gordon
Chen
Volquez

those are the guys they want to move before they move Ozuna…or Yelich…if they cant move Stanton they are going to have to move everyone else ANd the guys from the above list

maybe that is the smarter move…wait for Stanton to fall through…then pounce on Yelich AND Ozuna even if it means losing MORE higher end prospects…then use the money set aside (and hopefully some good prospects) for Stanton to sign or trade your extra OFs for a higher end SP and RP

but to me a deal for Yelich AND Ozuna (which woudl fulfill my desire for an impact bat/s to the lineup) woudl be a big one and include gusy like Reyes, Weaver, FLaherty, Hudson, Kelly, pretty much anyoen in the system… AND they woudlnt want to take on salary so whomever they woudl be replacing in the outfield for StL would have to be dealt AND we would still probably have to take on one of the other bad contracts…

maybe…just trying something out

Reyes, Hudson, Wong, Pham, Bader, Woodford, Sosa
for
Ozuna + Yelich + Gordon + Ziegler

then trade:
Kelly + Flaherty + Alcantara + Sierra + Perez
for
Archer and Colome

sign Hanigan
sign some kind of handcuff 1yr SP…maybe Feldman or Colon or someone who could also relieve…Krol?

we go:
Gordon, Carp, Yelich, Ozuna, Dejong, Fowler, Gyorko, Yadi
Hanigan,Diaz,Garcia,JMart,Grichuk
Archer,CMart,Weaver,Wacha,Waino/Krol
Colome,Ziegler,Lyons,Cecil,Tuivalala,Bowman,Brebbia

just thinking out loud

[thejager]

i think MIami wants more than 40million in savings…AND they dont want to lose Ozuna AND they dont want to eat ANY of the contract despite what happened with no one claiming him on waivers in August

if you want to overwhelm them you have to actually do that…not just hit their minimum requirements and also take their other good players whom will be all they have when trying to actually get people to go to the games.. .. Ozuna may only be there 2 more years, but he and his HRs would help mitigate getting some butts in seats…Wong and Pham wont do that….and Yelich/Realmuto arent those kind of guys either…

Go big or get trumped by another team…liek the Dodgers who might just take the whole salary and know they will be on TV every night and get all the advertising and probably get a World Series to whome eating double the contract for a while whiel still under the luxury tax wont bother them as long as they get jewelry and fame

[thejager]

Just take the whole contract, it is not really baddd, it is only bad for a small market team like the Marlins who want to cut salary. His early years of value will outweigh the potential bad late years. I dont care about the fact that everyone passed on him for free during the year…that’s the past, and to me not relevant anymore…or at least not as relevant

….offer up Flaherty + Sierra/Bader + maybe a guy like Gomber
2 pretty much ready to go cheap pitchers for their almost non existent rotation, one with a very nice upside and the other at worse a #5 and move to bullpen with his K rate…a starting young cost controlled outfielder with either upside power/speed or one with upside avg/defense/speed…ready to play right now

That is a pretty darned good deal with us eating the contract, and one that woudl be hard for the Marlins to say no to and to see some other team up the offer

-you can take on Ziegler’s contract too for nothing if they want, we’d overpay for Ziegler but he had a nice second half last year and it is only one year…his groundball rate is nice by itself

-you can also swap Wong for Gordon if you want…that saves the MArklins a bit more money

-you could also just take on PRado despite the bad contract of it…he was hurt, but when he is healthy he can be very useful…especially if we made a few other moves

All of those are options on top of just the proposed deal i put up there… none of them would kill us and would still leave us plenty of chips to make trades to address gluts or spots lacking, it would definitely

The point is that we have to put an offer on the table that forces the MArlins to put pressure on Stanton, we can try to sell us all we want but we will need the Marlins doing it too, which means putting an offer better than anything else that can come out…which would makes them do so

As for getting Ozuna too? i dont see it, and i believe that question has been asked about our inquiries with the MArlins…to which they said that wasnt something they heard was happening…sure we have interest in all 3 of the outfielders but it seems the desire is either to go for Stanton OR go for the other 2 or one of the other two…but no combination of the three

I’d love Ozuna and Stanton…but it woudl take a lot to get them both…and Ozuna for just two years just doesnt sit well with me regardless…but to each his/her own i guess. I just dont see that off C2016 as being enough to get everything you are wanting….might not be enough to get Stanton…let alone the cheap Ozuna

to me…the Marlins want to move that whoel salary of Stanton’s…that’s the big roadblock, everyone thinks they can not have to eat the whole thing because they see that it isnt really all that bad when it comes to the value the player offers…which of course makes them all drool at getting even MORE value for the investment…but the MArlins know this…so they arent going to give him away without getting what they want…which right now primarily is financial stability…and the quickest way to that is STanton’s big contract, and getting some replacement players for Stanton and their rotation…they can field a halfway decent team while they rebuild if they do this…even keeping Gordon if necessary…but Prado and Ziegler are easily seen bad contracts whose removal woudl help them get to their rebuild much faster…

the Cardinals must know all of this…and must take advantage of it as they have the money to do so…sure Prado and Ziegler are getting paid more than they should and PRado’s is especially long at his age…but i think they could be managed…AND they arent totally worthless to what coudl help the team…

yeah..it will take some guts to just plop down the acceptance of those big contracts…and add on top of that give up some good players too…BUT if i am MOz and GIrsch right now…i know my job is on the line…they have to fix it for NEXT year….all they have to do is convince DeWitt that it wont be an organizational killer down the line…which to me it wont be…without cost controlled young starters coming through the system we will have less of a need to pay big money to starters for a little while…especially if you can maybe pull off another trade for Archer or Stroman or another younger nice upside cheap starter…
CMart, Archer, Weaver, Reyes, Wacha…is nice and young and cheap…at least until Prado and Ziegler’s contracts are gone…it should be fine

It’s a gamble sure…but it is one that wont ruin the franchise and will make it better immediately…we just need to put pressure on the Marlins to put pressure on Stanton…they want money relief…give it to them…I dont see the Dodgers(or Giants) taking on the whole salary as they fly by the luxury tax thus paying double…maybe the Phillies would do it too but can they really offer the quality young pitching we can? (seeing as they need it too?)

[thejager]

i read that they didnt want this to linger into the holidays…i dont know which holidays of course

[thejager]

I guess i just dont get the fascination with Kintzler… can someone educate me on why he is a really good fit for us?

[thejager]

ha! sounds right

[thejager]

they just adde:

MErcado
Derian
ONeill
Gomber

I wonder if they think they can push Derian fast now…

[thejager]

that’s a pretty nice deal…we take on a lot of salary and lose a good young guy like Wong who had a good year last year…

i still think we’d have to offer up another good youngster SP… they need ready to start starters…i just dont think Sandy is ready to go yet…maybe you offer Hudson aND Sandy…or Hudson and Gomber…and take out Woodford…

so many options really…hard to know how much we WANT the fish to take off and how much they are willing to eat (If any)…makes it hard to consider what we shoudl offer

[thejager]

would it be possible to sneak Voit through waivers or whatever today as everyone is trying to protect their own kids?

i know people keep spots open for rule V but if you save a spot and then Voit is available you may think twice for putting in a claim on him if you want to be in the rule v draft…

to me i liek Voit, but i didnt see progress once he was up in the bigs in the role he will have… Wisdom might be better suited for that for all we know…but at least he woudl be a good late inning defender too…

i dunno…both are fine guys to have at your disposal, but i think i might prefer Wisdom if i had to pick one…i might be wrong in the end but i just really value that defensive flex Wisdom could offer over Voit being stuck at 1b and pinch hitting… i dunno…

[thejager]

i do see POnce being snagged…if for no other reason than knowing they could throw him on the 60 day DL whenever the soonest time they could and no one would bat an eye as he is coming off that head injury…then when he comes back he could slide into a long reliever or spot starter role…

There are a lot of teams i think that would love a shot at serviceable backend starter arm…screams SD all over it…they dont have 5 good guys and with the way the DL is used now Poncedelon in a pen could allow for guys to go down to AAA and come up while he just picks up a few innings here and there…. compared ot other guys in our stable of arms he is overlooked but he has shown solid lines and progression at every step..

i definitely dont see him as Arturo…but i see ARturo potentially getting snatched up too

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