Home › The Cardinal Nation Forums › Open Forum › Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2017-2018
- This topic has 2,871 replies, 53 voices, and was last updated 5 years, 3 months ago by Brian Walton.
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November 26, 2017 at 3:55 pm #38262
Brian,
I agree, a lot of the dominoes are on different time schedules. The greatest insight from data analysis comes from being able to read between the lines. Ohtani clearly has a vision for what he is trying to accomplish here.
If I am the Cardinals, I get Miami’s permission to bring in Stanton. I have Ohtani and Darvish come in on the same day. The meetings start at the same time, DeWitt in one, Mo in another and Gisch in the third. They rotate through the meetings that all end at the same time. They sell each of the three on the idea of creating a super team to battle the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Astros.
And there is one thing that makes this seem like it is destiny – Ohtani is coming to the US at the same time the Marlins need to shed $40+ million in payroll and the Cardinals have a lot of payroll flexibility with a new revenue stream and $20-30 million coming off the books from last year (after factoring in contract and arbitration increases). The Cardinals have exactly the type of ready-now players and prospects Miami needs to have some credibility with their fan base. It’s really a once in a lifetime opportunity to take advantage of a confluence of factors like this.
Fortune favors the bold.
November 26, 2017 at 4:18 pm #38263This is the slowest free agent market in years. It’s waiting on Ohtani, Darvish and Stanton.
The Cardinals could blitz the market in a way nobody, other than Ohtani and the Marlins, can see coming.
November 26, 2017 at 4:58 pm #38264https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/yu-darvish-shohei-ohtani-among-priorities-for-twins.html
“Interestingly, there has been speculation that, because of the good relationship they forged in their homeland, Ohtani and Darvish, 31, could end up with the same team this winter as a sort of package deal.”
November 26, 2017 at 7:18 pm #38265I mean, if the Cardinals can do these types of swaps with the Marlins:
– Stanton + Zeigler + Cost-Controlled Reliever (Barraclough) + $55 M for Stanton and $4 M for Zeigler for Piscotty + O’Neill + Flaherty. We’ve just saved Miami roughly $28 million next year.
– If we could swap Gordon + Ozuna for Wong + Pham, we just saved Miami another $16 million next year.Maybe that would be enough to do it. Maybe they demand pitching also for the second deal, and we could package, say Mike Mayers + Connor Jones to satisfy them.
If the Cardinals could pull those trades off and then go to Ohtani and Darvish and say, “all we need are two aces,” I think it would be a very easy sell. Especially if they bring over Yoshisha Hirano and maybe a LHP from Japan. Maybe bring back Oh.
I just don’t see any other team that can pull off what the Cardinals can pull off, under the circumstances. We are giving Miami the $45 million in payroll relief they need with comparable players going back (except for Stanton, and even then, we are giving Stanton-lite in O’Neill + a pitching prospect). That’s a clear win for Miami. Ohtani seems to be looking for a championship team built around him and at least one other Japanese player (likely Darvish).
Just adding Stanton, Ozuna and Gordon would put us on par with LAD, Cleveland & Houston…Add in Ohtani, Darvish, and Cozart, and the Cardinals are the odds-on favorites to win the WS the next three years…
November 26, 2017 at 11:11 pm #38266I wonder how many trades are already done to the point of just waiting to see where Stanton and such goes, hopefully we don’t have to wait until the winter meetings for something to happen…
November 27, 2017 at 10:14 am #38283Being able to provide the best deal to the Marlins is only half of the battle. They then have to persuade Stanton to waive the NTC to come here. Good luck with that.
Jim Bowden has stated three weeks in a row on MLB Front Office that he thinks Stanton will either go the Dodgers or stay in Miami because those are the two places he wants to live. Jim Duquette predicts Stanton to the Cards by the way.
November 27, 2017 at 1:24 pm #38289I don’t know. I think if you show Stanton a plan to win 3 WS rings in the next 3 years, and then he can opt out, he might take it.
The Cardinals have $54 million coming off the books from players no longer with the team offset by $27 million in contractual and projected arbitration increases this year.
Adding Stanton, $5 million of Zeigler, Ozuna (projected $10.9 million) and Gordon in place of Piscotty, Wong & Pham would increase our payroll $42 million, or $15 million over last year (remember, the Cardinals have for years been saying they have payroll muscle). It would also give us TWO middle of the order bats.
You then have a lineup of Carpenter, Gordon, Ozuna, Stanton, Fowler, DeJong, Molina, Gyorko, Pitcher, which would be pretty formidable. Yes, Carpenter batting second would be better both in terms of not blocking Gordon on the base paths and mixing in a left-handed hitter in the lineup.
If you sign Ohtani (major league min first year), Darvish for $25 million, Hirano for $3 million and Cozart for $10 million, you’re $53 million over last year. Probably just over the luxury tax, but manageable. Cozart would be a luxury the Cardinals wouldn’t have to do, but would give the Cardinals the ability to rest each starter 2X per week and serve as insurance if any of the starters were injured (by being able to put DeJong in their place).
You can offset that by trading away Grichuk (projected $2.8 million in arbitration) and Aledmys Diaz ($2.5 million last year), which will save another $5 million or so…maybe include them going back to MIA
November 27, 2017 at 2:30 pm #38294I hear what you are saying but we only have so much control in this. We could offer Miami Reyes, Weaver, Alcantara, Hudson, Kelly, Grichuk, Piscotty, and Diaz, but if Stanton doesn’t want to come here then it doesn’t matter.
November 27, 2017 at 3:25 pm #38298I get it. Dodgers are clearly his first choice. He submitted a list of teams to which he will accept a trade (which may not include the Cardinals). But he also indicated it could be negotiated…
I mean, if I were him and had to choose between the Dodgers or Cardinals, I am choosing the Dodgers. But if the Dodgers don’t bite, does he want to stay in Miami and lose 100 games?
But the longer the Cardinals let this press on without developing a cohesive plan of action, the lesser their odds.
November 27, 2017 at 3:27 pm #38299The longer that we let this go on without having a plan would raise the chances that we’d do some knee jerk signing to try and make up for not getting Stanton and we’d get some nobody and regret it later…
November 27, 2017 at 3:30 pm #38300With both Ohtani and Stanton indicating they can be swayed in the process, this is really not the time for the Cardinals front office to behave like the Cardinals front office.
November 27, 2017 at 3:40 pm #38301I think Miami would at least present it to Stanton with a proposed 5:5 swap of players that saves them $42 million…And then the Cardinals would know definitively whether they ever had any chance.
If he does accept, Cardinals get to exercise their payroll muscle they’ve been telling us about for five years.
If not, the Cardinals move on to looking for a closer and a RF bat.
November 27, 2017 at 11:06 pm #38307Cardinals 2016:
NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
November 28, 2017 at 9:10 am #38317November 28, 2017 at 10:37 am #38326Just take the whole contract, it is not really baddd, it is only bad for a small market team like the Marlins who want to cut salary. His early years of value will outweigh the potential bad late years. I dont care about the fact that everyone passed on him for free during the year…that’s the past, and to me not relevant anymore…or at least not as relevant
….offer up Flaherty + Sierra/Bader + maybe a guy like Gomber
2 pretty much ready to go cheap pitchers for their almost non existent rotation, one with a very nice upside and the other at worse a #5 and move to bullpen with his K rate…a starting young cost controlled outfielder with either upside power/speed or one with upside avg/defense/speed…ready to play right nowThat is a pretty darned good deal with us eating the contract, and one that woudl be hard for the Marlins to say no to and to see some other team up the offer
-you can take on Ziegler’s contract too for nothing if they want, we’d overpay for Ziegler but he had a nice second half last year and it is only one year…his groundball rate is nice by itself
-you can also swap Wong for Gordon if you want…that saves the MArklins a bit more money
-you could also just take on PRado despite the bad contract of it…he was hurt, but when he is healthy he can be very useful…especially if we made a few other moves
All of those are options on top of just the proposed deal i put up there… none of them would kill us and would still leave us plenty of chips to make trades to address gluts or spots lacking, it would definitely
The point is that we have to put an offer on the table that forces the MArlins to put pressure on Stanton, we can try to sell us all we want but we will need the Marlins doing it too, which means putting an offer better than anything else that can come out…which would makes them do so
As for getting Ozuna too? i dont see it, and i believe that question has been asked about our inquiries with the MArlins…to which they said that wasnt something they heard was happening…sure we have interest in all 3 of the outfielders but it seems the desire is either to go for Stanton OR go for the other 2 or one of the other two…but no combination of the three
I’d love Ozuna and Stanton…but it woudl take a lot to get them both…and Ozuna for just two years just doesnt sit well with me regardless…but to each his/her own i guess. I just dont see that off C2016 as being enough to get everything you are wanting….might not be enough to get Stanton…let alone the cheap Ozuna
to me…the Marlins want to move that whoel salary of Stanton’s…that’s the big roadblock, everyone thinks they can not have to eat the whole thing because they see that it isnt really all that bad when it comes to the value the player offers…which of course makes them all drool at getting even MORE value for the investment…but the MArlins know this…so they arent going to give him away without getting what they want…which right now primarily is financial stability…and the quickest way to that is STanton’s big contract, and getting some replacement players for Stanton and their rotation…they can field a halfway decent team while they rebuild if they do this…even keeping Gordon if necessary…but Prado and Ziegler are easily seen bad contracts whose removal woudl help them get to their rebuild much faster…
the Cardinals must know all of this…and must take advantage of it as they have the money to do so…sure Prado and Ziegler are getting paid more than they should and PRado’s is especially long at his age…but i think they could be managed…AND they arent totally worthless to what coudl help the team…
yeah..it will take some guts to just plop down the acceptance of those big contracts…and add on top of that give up some good players too…BUT if i am MOz and GIrsch right now…i know my job is on the line…they have to fix it for NEXT year….all they have to do is convince DeWitt that it wont be an organizational killer down the line…which to me it wont be…without cost controlled young starters coming through the system we will have less of a need to pay big money to starters for a little while…especially if you can maybe pull off another trade for Archer or Stroman or another younger nice upside cheap starter…
CMart, Archer, Weaver, Reyes, Wacha…is nice and young and cheap…at least until Prado and Ziegler’s contracts are gone…it should be fineIt’s a gamble sure…but it is one that wont ruin the franchise and will make it better immediately…we just need to put pressure on the Marlins to put pressure on Stanton…they want money relief…give it to them…I dont see the Dodgers(or Giants) taking on the whole salary as they fly by the luxury tax thus paying double…maybe the Phillies would do it too but can they really offer the quality young pitching we can? (seeing as they need it too?)
November 28, 2017 at 11:18 am #38332The reason I think they would swap Ozuna for Pham is they are roughly equivalent players, but Pham has 5 years of control and is next to nothing for the next three years…
If you are giving them something of equal value at a lower cost, why would they not take it, given their financial situation?
November 28, 2017 at 1:17 pm #38341i get that argument…but ONE good year of Pham and his age and injuries despite his control does not make up for the growth i have seen in Ozuna….
i dont see equal value
now Wong vs Gordon..i can see the equal value less cost thing…you could argue Wong is cheaper and younger but Gordon is better if not older and more expensive…
Ozuna alone doesnt fix their problems with money…and Ozuna AND Stanton leaves them without anything for their fans to get excited about for the next 2 years…
they can get far more value out of Ozuna at the deadline this year AND he will still help draw some kind of crowd…
Stanton
Prado
Ziegler
Gordon
Chen
Volquezthose are the guys they want to move before they move Ozuna…or Yelich…if they cant move Stanton they are going to have to move everyone else ANd the guys from the above list
maybe that is the smarter move…wait for Stanton to fall through…then pounce on Yelich AND Ozuna even if it means losing MORE higher end prospects…then use the money set aside (and hopefully some good prospects) for Stanton to sign or trade your extra OFs for a higher end SP and RP
but to me a deal for Yelich AND Ozuna (which woudl fulfill my desire for an impact bat/s to the lineup) woudl be a big one and include gusy like Reyes, Weaver, FLaherty, Hudson, Kelly, pretty much anyoen in the system… AND they woudlnt want to take on salary so whomever they woudl be replacing in the outfield for StL would have to be dealt AND we would still probably have to take on one of the other bad contracts…
maybe…just trying something out
Reyes, Hudson, Wong, Pham, Bader, Woodford, Sosa
for
Ozuna + Yelich + Gordon + Zieglerthen trade:
Kelly + Flaherty + Alcantara + Sierra + Perez
for
Archer and Colomesign Hanigan
sign some kind of handcuff 1yr SP…maybe Feldman or Colon or someone who could also relieve…Krol?we go:
Gordon, Carp, Yelich, Ozuna, Dejong, Fowler, Gyorko, Yadi
Hanigan,Diaz,Garcia,JMart,Grichuk
Archer,CMart,Weaver,Wacha,Waino/Krol
Colome,Ziegler,Lyons,Cecil,Tuivalala,Bowman,Brebbiajust thinking out loud
November 28, 2017 at 1:44 pm #38342I get the argument about keeping Ozuna to give the fans something to be excited about.
BUT:
1. With Pham, Wong, Piscotty, O’Neill (Stanton-Lite) & at least one pitcher from the Cardinals, how many more games do you think they are going to lose? How much fewer in attendance will there be from their roughly 20,000 per game now?
2. They go from losing $60 million per year to about $10. They need to raise less money from outside investors.
3. The Cardinals can always throw in kickers that don’t fit in our L-T plans that could be trade chips or starters for Miami (Grichuk, Diaz, Mejia, etc)
4. Ozuna is a Boras client. There is ZERO chance he re-signs in Miami (which is why many in Miami are saying they are trading the wrong outfielder even if Stanton is more expensive).As for Ozuna only being in STL for two years, it’s all but guaranteed the Cardinals will slap a QO on him. The only reason they wouldn’t is that he gets injured and will be out all of 2020.
November 28, 2017 at 1:51 pm #38343Also, because of the lower cost of Yelich, he is going to cost MUCH more in prospects to obtain from Miami than Stanton or even Ozuna.
And an outfield of Pham, Yelich and O’Neill with Piscotty as a 4th OF wouldn’t be bad…
November 28, 2017 at 4:57 pm #38351Also, because of the lower cost of Yelich, he is going to cost MUCH more in prospects to obtain from Miami than Stanton or even Ozuna.
And an outfield of Pham, Yelich and O’Neill with Piscotty as a 4th OF wouldn’t be bad…
I don’t think Fowler is going anywhere unfortunately.
November 28, 2017 at 5:07 pm #38353Ha! That would be the Miami outfield in this scenario…
November 29, 2017 at 10:15 am #38390Shouldn’t the Cardinals get an idea if Stanton will accept a trade to STL first, (Maybe they privately do, but doubt it) and if so, aren’t we just being pawns in this game to help MIami get a better offer from another team? If he stays healthy, my thought is that he will opt out after 3 years and sign with the Dodgers.
November 29, 2017 at 11:36 am #38391I think he is going to the Dodgers this year or stay in Miami. We need to move onto Plan B.
November 29, 2017 at 12:31 pm #38394The Dodgers are already over the limit though without him, he’d cost them a fortune…
November 29, 2017 at 1:36 pm #38397NJ315ParticipantIf he wanted to come to St. Louis the deal would have been done. I don’t think is the Marlins holding the deal. He still may be come to St. Louis but obviously it may require a little push from the Marlins, we aren’t his preferred destination.
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