[thejager]

Ponce has been pretty fantastic since he started with us

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ponced001dan

he is a bit older than the other prospects..at 25… but could be a good short term option if healthy…he started off brilliantly last year and even if a team thought they coudl get him right in a year…they might be able to snag him for a reliever option…or even snag him and put him on the DL immediately as he recovers from the head issue if they are concerned at all

[thejager]

delete

[thejager]

blue has been around a long while and black as accent is always on the table for every team i think

i do have to say i like the White Sox new BP hats a lot though

[thejager]

i think you are definitely right on those 3…

but do you think we really wont protect another 2 if we have open spots and dont have any FA’s acquired?

would we really let guys be subject to the draft while we still had open spots on the 40?

what is the negative for protecting as many as we can and then takign them off once a trade or FA signing happens?? is it worse than not protecting them for rule V?

[thejager]

i understand…i guess i was till thinking Logan could play LF or RF…but it was 2014 since he did that…guess i dont watch enough TB games to pay attention to his spot on the field

and i dont really “want” him at all …just thinking about the idea of what it woudl take to equal the fear we are trying to acquire with Stanton…

maybe Morrison + Garcia from CWs? thats really is uninspiring…MOrrison + CarGO? ugh.. Morrison + MOose? better but nah… Morrison plus Donaldson….yeah…but the price on Donaldson for 1 yr will be lame…

[thejager]

agreed…im not a fan of the two tone color thing…though i am curious what a blue cap with red bill woudl look like…..

[thejager]

beede and Shaw are 2 of the top 3 Giants prospects (Arroyo being #1 and omitted)

not dealing Arroyo and still wanting money off should signal IMO that Reyes is off the table in a deal where we take on more money…maybe not even Weaver

I think we are trying to not give up Flaherty Weaver or Reyes….in case we cant find another SP in case Waino is done… still taking on GOrdon AND Stanton and Ziegler makes a lot of sense to me…

maybe the Marlins wont eat Stanton’s contract but maybe they will eat some of Ziegler or Gordon’s?

Im not a fan of swapping Wong for Gordon…and Ziegler is borderline what we are looking for… BUT both would provide worth for the money we are taking on in roles we coudl use…

Gordon at the top of the lineup instead of Carp (who goes to supersub mode) followed by Pham and Stanton is pretty impressive and dynamic…

Ziegler while not a closer option might be a late inning guy we want that coudl pair with a lesser bullpen option like Nicasio to form a strong back end even if it has no obvious head as CLOSER…though Ziegler combined with a Colome deal woudl be pretty nice in fortifying the backend

If i feel like i have a legitimate shot at young controllable good SP like Stroman or Archer i think i get a bit looser with the level of SP i offer up for Stanton

if we snagged Stanton, Gordon, and Ziegler….then worked a trade for Archer and Colome…(probably starting with Reyes and Kelly in that deal…Archer is what we want Reyes to be, and Kelly is replaceable IMO but valuable)… woudl make this offseason pretty darned amazing…

Still….the Giants seem to be thinking they can offer Panik 2-3 in their system and not Arroyo AND not taking on as much money as a means to convincing the Fish… I think it is a good tactic but i think we can still best it when push comes to shove…

FLaherty Wong Diaz…maybe throw in a guy like Helsey to put it over the top… even if that is TOO much it wouldnt cripple us in depth or quality…we have a lot more options depending on what the Fish want

[thejager]

bringing this back up to the top… seeing as the decision is today at 8 for who we protect

me i want to protect as many spots as we have available and deal with FA’s signings etc. when they come…

I also think a few guys are maybe in a bit of danger… Voit, Mayers, Valera…but they dont have to be at the moment if we only want to protect 5

i say:
Wisdom
ONeill
Gomber
Mercado
Poncedeleon

I’d drop Voit for Wisdom if need be as i think Wisdom could do the same job as Voit except add 3b and superb 3b at that, AND JMArt showed he can cover right hand hitting for average and power at 1b on the bench

Poncedeleon was rising fast before his injury…he shoudlnt be thrown away for one lost year even with a scary injury

Oneill, Mercado are seeming slam dunks…and i think Gomber may be too

so where is everyone else at?

[thejager]

-Stanton AND the Marlins have to agree to a trade, there are no guarantees the Cardinals can do anything about that…that has nothign to do with money unless you are willing to eat all of Chen, Gordon, Ziegler, Volquez, and Prado too….and even then it is no guarantee a deal could happen

-Votto has stated publicly several times he does not want to leave the Reds…and the Reds havent indicated they want to try to move him anyways…. again not about spending money in any way…

-Darvish IS about money…but are you going to be happy when it takes a 7 year deal 28m per year deal to land him or convince him to come to the Cardinals? so sure …it is about the money…but he also has to want to pick us…and convincing someone to come here by outspending usually means taking gambles on money that undoubtedly Nate would then just complain about later as being crippling…calling Yu, Stanton, and Votto slugs and we should eat the money and dump them after they have a bad month

so 2 of the big 3 acquisitions Nate says we can easily get are not even in the control of the management…

it takes two to tango in trades AND in FA signings…and if you want to try to sidestep that equation by spending more money or whatever then you are forced into positions where you give up far more than you want… that is why you have to find a suitable trade partner or FA target where you can work out a deal that may be fair to both teams…or at least one team loses/wins by a small margin

I want Stanton…i think he is getable…i think the money we have makes a deal for him attainable…combined with our prospects and young MLBers we definitely should be able to best any offer from other teams unless they go crazy..

but this is about Morrison…

Morrison on short deal + trade for Abreu…that adds some fear…but i think CWS thinks they can get another Eaton or Quintana deal for Abreu and it will cost too much for 2 yrs…. and MOrrison i dont think will take anything shorter than 4 yrs….

[thejager]

I dont think Mayers is worth giving up on either…that first start has really tainted his image but i think he just needs to be completely converted to the pen and see what happens he has good stuff and has had good results

the “love” for Wisdom comes from that he hit 30HRs last year AND played really good defense at 3b…he seemed to turn a corner last year and we have precious few 3b’s in the system and not much power either…Mercado looked dead in the water before last year and everyone is fine locking him into a 40man spot (even though he is ANOTHER OFer that we already have plenty of)…and i want to lock in MErcado too…but Wisdom had a n amazing last year too… no one knows if Wisdom can hit MLB hitters so saying he “ONLY” hits “CRAPPY” minor league pitching as a negative is misleading and bias driven IMO…

I would rather see Voit come off if someone is coming off the 40man as i think Wisdom could take his spot as big bat corner infielder…except he has a a great cannon at 3b and good glove too…

[thejager]

if it really is all about salary cutting…then just take on the whole salary and sweeten it with a good pitching prospect..

swap Wong and Gordon if it helps… and take Ziegler’s one year of salary too…maybe get them to eat liek half of Ziegler or something in the negotiating for giving up the good pitcher

[thejager]

interesting to see the Panik and Gordon part of that deal SF gave

i think we could do something similar with Wong should the Fish be interested

the 40 man decisions have to happen by 8pm right?

I’d have to think the timing of them ove indicates we are still WANTING to protect a few more guys if possible and that there must be at least 2 guys from our 40man included in the deal so as to make room for at least 1 more spot

if Sandy is in there, I’d think maybe another starter from the 40 is in there…maybe Flaherty…then add in Grichuk or Bader or Sierra maybe….

I think Poncedeleon will be taken in the rule 5 despite the injury (he was awesome up to that point last year and was at AAA i dont want to lose him)
I also dont want to lose Wisdom

ONeill, Gomber, Mercado….seem locks…and if we have 5 spots now we coudl still protect Ponce and Wisdom…but then we’d have no room for FA’s at all right?

we need a 3 for 1 or 4 for 2 or something deal

problem is…everyone knows this….including the Fish…

[thejager]

I really dont want to hand CarGo a big contract

and i dont know why a big contract to Stroman is something that is being discussed?

he is arb eligible until after 2020…even at his short stature picking him up for low money for 3 yrs of good play is not bad

same goes for Garcia and Abreu…it isnt that any of them are perfect players…but they have more than one year control and would give us flexibility of sending them away if they dont work out without losing too much..BUT while we’d give up some good pieces to get them all 3 are good right now and would help for the control of them we do have…2 yrs of two power hitters…and 3 yrs of at worst a #3 young hurler

cozart for super cheap is intriguing…Donaldson for 1yr is a waste of the talent we’d have to give up to get him unless he comes for nothing (which he wont)….CarGo is trending down, JD will cost 30mil, Hosmer at least has age on his side and some good defense, but he isnt a scary enough bat IMO, Moose is an injury and performance risk IMO but has age on his side, Morrison seems a big risk for performance

I just dont see the FA market being worth the investment it seems like it will take to land the true impact bats we seem to need…to me JD works as a solution but the price is too high…and outside of him i think it’d take two gusy to fill the need for impact we need.. Homser and Moose…Morrison and Moose maybe…Moose and Morrison maybe…

Stanton is an obvious target
Abreu is too
Garcia alone isnt worth the look
Ozuna is a good target but at what cost for 2 yrs? similar to Abreu and Garcia in what id give up but i
think the Fish woudl want more
Yelich has great contract but isnt as impact as we seem to be targeting…
Longoria might be a target but is getting old and isnt as much of a threat as we are looking for…but if
he was required to get ARcher and/or Colome id be interested i think

any other trade targets for the bat in the lineup we want that might actually be available?
Machado, Trout, Arenado, Harper, Goldy arent…who else woudl have the kind of impact we are looking for?

[thejager]

I agree with that assessment too…

But if we can’t pull off Stanton perhaps the fear for the middle of the lineup could come via Abreu. And backing up that with Garcia would give us 2 yrs of a solution instead of a 1 yr solution of Donaldson or long term openly investments in potential fear of Hosmer or CarGo.

Also, and apologies if I am wrong.

I don’t know if you’re trying to be condescending (and I interpret it that way as you use the “spitballing” word even though I didn’t put it in the post and of some reason several posters seem to believe that I am somehow insulted by you making in of that entirely normal and commonly used idiom when discussing ideas) but I am happy to post exactly how I do you don’t have to agree or discuss if you don’t want. I’ve made it abundantly clear over and over that I don’t ncesarily think any proposal I hypothesize on or put forward Ian my opinion. Or even the best or even appropriate. It’s a means to think through thoughts that I think or are influenc d by other ideas or posts. Lambasting me or my style is not really worth anyone’s time. Participate or don’t. But I’m allowed to post how I want just like anyone else

I am VERY interested in continuing the discussion on Garcia but I wont respond to anything future about the potential personal attacks on posting style or word usage that have no place in a discussion about trades and trade ideas rumors etc.

[thejager]

i dont see who Garcia helps us especially at the cost of Bader…now if that deal happened and we got Garcia AND Abreu…and used BAder plus some other prospects…i’d understand the thinking

Garcia + Abreu
for
Bader + Hudson + Helsey + ?

that’s 2 years of control of Abreu and Garcia..both being FA’s in 2020

i could get behind a deal for those guys

we’d probably also have to find another deal too to clear up some outfielder and infielder (now) glut…but maybe like the deal i said above for Fulmer and Greene, or Stroman and Osuna, or Archer and COlome..well maybe just Colome…

how about:
Colome
for
Flaherty + Diaz + Voit (they need middle infielders and a 1b…FLaherty is the key though)

and

Stroman
for
Gyorko + Sierra/Grichuk (whether they want power or defense) + GGarcia/Sosa (if they want aprospect more than utility) + Seijas (they need an outfielder, and Gyorko is a good contract and power, Garcia helps their middle infield too, and Seijas still has upside)

I am tempted to use Kelly in these deals…and wouldnt be against it

but adding:
Abreu + Garcia provides some fear with Abreu and more pop with Garcia…
Stroman takes away the need for Flaherty to be our backup to Waino…and doesnt rush Reyes
Colome slides into the closer role

we lose depth in the outfield but ti’s still deep…Carp is at 3b which isnt great but manageable i think… we lose some starting depth..but we really dont need it with such a young rotation…and Reyes is still there

lots of moves…but we dont take on crazy salary…clear up our gluts…and make the team better all around without sacrificing Reyes or Kelly potentially..

thinking out loud…

[thejager]

that’s what i said in my post…

and i agree…

still..the Giants would seemingly have to move several other players to afford him without paying taxes…if they want to go that route…and offload those prospects…it might work…if they can find some low cost FA alternatives the team woudlnt be terrible…it was just depend a lot on Stanton and POsey and Bumgarner cueto Samardjia…and probably somebody stepping up in the bullpen…

a lineup of
Span, Crawford, Posey, Stanton, Panik, Carter (cheap FA 1b signing), Sandoval, Slater/Gorkys,Ryder etc.
(assuming them dumping salaries of Pence, Belt, Melancon)
that’s not too bad…even with a weak back coupel spots of Sandoval and a kid

and with 3 starters of Bum, Cueto, Samardjia…gives you a good chance 3 out of 5 games..and MOore is at least a coinflip with potential for much better…and a kid at the back end…

not terrible

the bullpen is wobbly…but Law, Dyson, Strickland have the skills…and a FA RP signing like Nicasio or something low cost would help too…

bench is pretty thin…but that can be managed

[thejager]

The thing is…the Giants have one big prospect that they don’t absolutely NEED and the MArlins would absolutely love to get

Arroyo

Marlins need a SS of the future and have nothing, Arroyo is a top prospect and could be a good guy to build around long term, pairing him with an outfielder prospect Heliot Ramos (high end but young)… would go a very long way for the Fish… they could also sell Beede and Blach as young guys with high upside despite their MLB performance so far

If the Giants decided to offer up that level of prospects…so like Arroyo, Ramos and Beede, i think the Fish would be very interested…and may be willing to eat more money due to the talent

now how the Giants pay for Stanton without paying luxury taxes…i dont know…id guess we’d see a partial salary dump of Pence (where they save a little money but have to eat a lot of it..), and then sell low on Belt and probably Span…probably looking at trying to get some young prospects to help replenish them… Moving Melancon by eating a bunch of money too woudl also help…but they have few options with him other than hoping for him to rebound

that’s a lot of moving parts for the Giants to pull it off…plus by taking on Stanton and losing other vets, what kind of team will they really have for Stanton? I know Belt and Pence and Span didnt help a lot…but they did provide some production…and with little on the farm to help and probably even less after acquiring Stanton i dont know how they sell themselves well as a playoff team to Stanton…

with the DBacks, Dodgers and ROx all on an upswing…the rotation depth of Bumgarner, Cueto, Samardjia with Posey Panik and Crawford as the offense, and a very shaky bullpen..doesnt yell to me as a team ready to compete for the division

Cardinals can offer good quality prospects, and take on salaries of other contracts for the Fish whereas the Giants woudl be difficult to just fit Stanton in at all…

I think again we match up well for a lot of reasons…finding the right combination of money, prospects, MLBers, and taking on other players is what will drag this out

im in the camp of giving up more than we probably would have to just to make the deal work…which means taking on more or all the money…i know i am in the minority there, but i think the contract is very fair for the market right now and will be better in time…even if it only goes 3 years…

Stanton and all the the salary, Ziegler+ the Fish kick in a little money…from Ziegler’s contract
for
Flaherty, Gomber, Grichuk, Diaz, and maybe another lower level but decent prospect

[thejager]

Yep

3-4 month recovery and would be ready for spring training

[thejager]

i have been interested in Archer and Stroman as a starting pitcher upgrade and both seem like they could be available…but both teams seem to be stuck in the middle…so why not switch gears to a team who is rebuilding now

Tigers and Michael Fulmer…he is cheap and been good…and there have already been murmurings of the Tigers moving him and just about anyone on the team to help the rebuild…they could use young outfielders and starting pitching and though Fulmer is the type of guy they want to keep they know his value is right now and they wont be in it for a while

and look they have a nice under the radar reliever who can close who would be great too in Shane Greene

i might even be interested in Jose Iglesias as a Andrelton Simmons-lite….

Fulmer and Greene
for?
a lot, but probably less than we think…but we’d get some pretty good young guys back

combine that with the Stanton deal

and a trade for maybe Colome

and boom you have a scary lineup…a bolstered pen with two quality back end arms..and a long term starting pitching upgrade which could mitigate losing any young starting pitcher prospects in the deal for him or Stanton

[thejager]

so no moves unless they are Stanton Trout Harper Machado KErshaw Scherzer etc…everything else is worthless eh?

im not so against Morrison only against him as the only move…if he was acquired along with other solutions then so be it…

to me i just think JMart isnt much worse than him except you lose potential power…but gain average…aND Jose Martinez wont cost huge money

he just seems a sidestep but without LOTS more moves i cant see the point in him

[thejager]

i thought the thing with Nicasio was that he was going to explore FA not necessarily that he wasnt going to return

[thejager]

well at least it isnt rumors anymore… still it seems like it is so vague though… but i guess it has to be

[thejager]

definitely a good look with 3yrs arb left…i wonder what they are interested in on our end

[thejager]

not a fan of this unless it comes along with several other moves… and even then im not sure id want him… it’s not that he is bad but he seems the last thing we need right now…

maybe he’s good friends with Stanton from his time in MIA… 😛

[thejager]

i totally agree Pads…id be all for taking the whole salary on to give up lesser prospects…

then go after another upgrade in pitching

on the Stantons thread i said this:
Stanton and his whole salary (id even consider taking on Ziegler in a salary dump just to get the deal done)
for
Flaherty and Grichuk (or another outfielder not named ONEill)

id follow that with calls to two places Toronto and TB…centering on Archer and Colome and Stroman and Osuna

I think Toronto matches up pretty well and while i prefer Archer and Colome i think we may have a better shot at Stroman and Osuna

Stroman and Osuna
for
-Kelly (they could use a real long term catcher after Martin is done in 2020..and Kelly coudl play right now and take some of the load off of Martin who seems to be pretty injury prone….the DH also allows for more time)
-Bader or Sierra (or another outfielder not named ONeill)…they need outfielders to go with Pillar out there…and Grichuk is an option in case we had to move someone else to MIA in the Stanton deal…Grichuk;s power would play in TOR
-Hudson or Alcantara (young starting pitching ready to go to replace Stroman or Osuna)
-Tuivalala or Brebbia (reliever ready to pitch)
-Greg Garcia (good value versatile player that can play right now and help their middle infield)..he isnt a headliner but he’d help their team…id consider Edmundo Sosa as well

That’s a 5 for 2 trade with top prospects across the board
It thins us out a little bit which we need but still lets us keep good prospects too

follow up all that with:
– a FA deal for vet reliever like Neshek or Shaw etc.
– FA signing of a backup catcher like Hanigan
– try to also find a one year vet starter deal for safety in the rotation…Feldman-ish

shouldnt cost too much

see if you can find a deal one the West Coast for Piscotty….a fair deal perhaps that could replace one of the FA signings…maybe a Piscotty for Cam Bedrosian? or Ryan Dull? Ryan Healy?…the A’s were interested in PIscotty at the deadline even with his down season…maybe we could snag a nice young reliever or position player, maybe Healy as he seems to be without a position and isnt the greatest defender but potentially as a power bench bat and some dedication for 1b with us he could turn into a nice power option for 1b)

Roll into 2018 with:
CMart, Stroman, Wacha, Weaver, Waino…with still Sandy/Hudson and Reyes waiting
Osuna, Ziegler, Lyons, Cecil, Neshek, Bowman, Brebbia/Tuivalala….Sandy/Hudson or Reyes potentially

Carp (1b or 3b), Pham, DeJong, Stanton, Fowler, Yadi, Gyorko/JMart, Wong
Hanigan, Diaz, JMart/Carp/Gyorko, Bader, Piscotty

-solid young rotation with a top prospect waiting to replace Waino
-deep veteran bullpen with several options for the backend in case any struggle
-lineup with the fear we have lacked…and DeJong in front of Stanton could be a nightmare for opposing pitchers as DeJong would get way more to hit (im tempted to put Carp in the 3 again just because of his good eye and hitting in front of Stanton means he will get pitched over the plate and Carp’s eye and smarts combined with knowing that they are going to pitch to him might make him really really effective)
-bench has depth and power and all could start if need be…Knizner replaces Kelly as Yadi replacement

yeah this is long…sorry

[Author]

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