[thejager]

the same pessimism for starting pitchers could be made for a lot of teams rotations out there

i agree all 3 would be great…BUT if it took Reyes to get Archer…i dont see the reason to balk at the deal…we have solid guys behind Reyes that could be very good too…and have more control and havent been injured and lost a year of development already…

I’d rather have Archer and CMart + Weaver as my 1 2 3… than have CMart and Archer and MAYBE Reyes in July (and his level of play is yet to be proven to be depended on)…without having Wacha Weaver and Hudson/FLaherty (because we had to use them instead of Reyes to get Archer without moving Reyes)

I am sure i am overpaying but it will take extra to rip that great contract of ARcher’s out of the Rays future plans…we arent getting a “deal” just because we take on Longoria’s pretty reasonable contract…we might get a bit of a deal…btu we are going to have to open the gates to the farm and unload if we want 3 good to very good MLB level players…a leader in Saves, a Cy Young candidate and a GG defender with solid stick

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i love that one lien is all you comment on…mayeb i shoudl have said STARTING MLB level SS depth is pretty thin…because it is

I dont say we dont have guys that can play the position…
DeJong is fine for now but if he regresses?

GGarcia can play there but when he was extended there in the past he flailed to hit well enough and his defense there has always been less than spectacular

Munoz has no MLB experience seems like he might work but is a huge ? for being “ready”…Sosa is at best for this year is a late season callup and that is pushing it… Meija proved he can play defense there which is good and Tovar is a coin flip in my opinion…might not even be starting ss at AAA

sure we have warm bodies… but if DeJong goes down to injury or flails like DIaz did, and PErlata before him…. then are you really comfortable with a subpar defender but decent hitter on base guy in GGarcia or a defense first and no bat like Meija? Or entirely unproven Munoz?

Garcia was given the shot two years ago and it didnt work out forcing us to go to Gyorko a lot…and had a shot again after Diaz went down but the team doesnt seem to trust him at SS…except in a little better than a pinch

I like Munoz i am high on him…he may be the next Diaz or DeeJong…i dunno…but depending on him seems a bit much

but at starting MLB level SS I dont see a guy we can turn to if DeJong goes down…i think the situation is the epitome of “thin”

we wgot really lucky the last 3 years with PEralta signing and doing well his first year….but then oops after that it went downhill..we lucked out having upside guys like Diaz behind PEralta and Dejong behind Diaz… both perform well when needed… but id also point to the fact that we missed the playoffs despite their success…

middle infield SS depth IMO is not something you “hope” for… you need a solid backup plan with good options for, not hopes and dreams for breakouts…which is what we have done for 2 yrs

[thejager]

I think Moz is posturing some on feeling “fine” with our rotation…but thinking that 3/5ths of it arent worth feeling good about seems extremely pessimistic …ill give you Waino and maybe Mikolas…but Wacha was pretty solid…

if you want you can be pessimistic about every player if you are worried about injuries… but i dont see why we shoudl be optimistic about Reyes… he is recovering from injury wont be a starter to start the year at the least…and had control issues…i dont see any reason to be optimistic about him…hopeful sure.. but optimistic for him but not for the others seems bias

Archer has been solid and pretty spectacular for a while…and he is super cheap… he solves the problem now and doesnt break the bank…we may have to lose Reyes to do so but what has Reyes done to deserve the Archer level of optimism you bestow on him? If he was 20 or 21 i get it…but he isnt…he wont be in the rotation to start a year for us until probably 2019 at best…24 years old and 5 yrs until FA

[thejager]

6 yrs 140m? hmm….6yrs 120 i might swallow…140m…man that seems high…

still 6 years put him at 34 at the end…this is definitely his prime years…

i agree on him potentially helping with getting others to come (along with Ozuna)

If we legitimately think we have no chance at any of the top talent frenzy of next year maybe we go with Hosmer now…

My only concern is that we might not be able to be in on any big FA’s…so him being added to help bring FAs may not matter if we dont have money to spend

Still if we could add Hosmer
then trade for Colome and Archer…maybe even add in Longoria…a win now strategy looks pretty good

Archer, Colome, Longoria
for
Gyorko (good contract and good player)
Reyes, Kelly (yep big returns mean big prospects)
Wacha, Grichuk (still has upside and ready to play)
Perez and Seijas (good far away prospects)

CMart, Archer, Weaver, Mikolas, Waino…….Flaherty
Fowler,Pham,Ozuna,Hosmer,Longoria,DeJong,Yadi,Wong
FA catcher,Jmart,Carp,GGarcia,Bader
Colome,Greger,Cecil,Brebbia,Lyons,Bowman,Tuivalala

We get better all the way around…
– good young cheap rotation with very good 1-2 punch and growth and still have some prospects
– lineup gets older and more expensive… but more power and fear, and we still have upside prospects
– bench is better with Carp in there to move around the diamond when an injury happens (outside of to SS)
– bullpen has some depth at the back end but is solid and still have Hicks and others that project well

SS depth is still very thin
much more money spent…though Waino coming off after 2018 will help

[thejager]

I guess i am just not as enamored with Reyes ass everyone else… If he turns out to be as good as Archer that’d be great…but i think he has issues

he is 23
he is cheap now but Arb eligible in 2020 and FA in 2023…next 10 years, more like 6
he just had TJ surgery (not a death sentence just a fact)
he had control issues before he got hurt and lost a year to recovery
he MAY start some this year but it doesnt look like he’d be a full season starter until 2019

Archer doesn’t hit FA until 2022
Archer doesnt hits 9m, then 11m only in his last two years (2020 and 2021) (If Reyes turns out perfectly he will get more than that in those years for arb)
Archer is older (but already proven and proven to be very effective)
Archer is a known quantity and present day present year star front end pitcher

We only lose really one year by swapping Reyes and Archer and probably save money on the deal, he is a bit older so of course there is some regression probably, but that only matters if Reyes turns out to be perfect

I like Reyes a lot, but Archer is a Cy young guy right now who doesnt make more than 11mil before 2022. His bloated ERA means very little when comparing the leagues and division he was pitching in, his Ks have been above 2020 for a while, he would be dominant right now.

Swapping Reyes in a deal for Archer + Colome (maybe Longoria i guess) is fine with me as we get something comparable back in Archer…we get a present day star instead of a POTENTIAL future one

Reyes is a jewel…and jewels can be shown off or they can be used to buy things you need right now…and we could really use/need a front end starter right now…not in 2-3 years….

now would i prefer BOTH… absolutely…but if it’s a sticking point…it shouldnt be

[thejager]

I think the Yankees look like the destination for MAchado…
Sure Andujar, Gregorias, and Gleybar might be good, but they could slot Machado into that lineup pretty easily and put him with their murderer’s row

Cubs have Bryant and Russell
Dodgers have Seager and Turner
Nats have Rendon and Turner

[thejager]

So…. what are the big talking goods and bads on Hosmer?

I am starting to want to just pay for him and use prospects to figure out a closer or maybe a closer+

[thejager]

I like Donaldson but one year is still one year and he is getting up there in age….but the way i look at it…id try to get him IF we can also grab something else we want…then losing the prospects doesnt feel as bad…

like Stroman to pair with Carlos long term…or maybe Osuna as a late game RP/Closer option

adding either ups the prospect payout BUt at least it gives us one thing long term to pair with the short term fix…which still doesnt stop us from attempting a re-sign…AND should we win or do very well i think the chances at least go up a little that we get a fair chance..

I am starting to lean towards going after Hosmer just to make it easier than trying to find a trade that gives us max value for our prospects…

So… sign Hosmer and give him thee xtra year he wants…he is still young and we dont need his bat to be otherworldly just a good complement to Ozuna and beefen up the lineup…his defense will always help too..

then use your prospect power to go after Archer and Colome…there is heaps of value to be gained from both sides of that trade…expensive in prospects BUT big time value in what comes back

sign Hosmer
trade for Archer and Colome (Reyes, Wacha, Kelly, Perez, Gyorko, Grichuk, Seijas) (might have to be more but i think we could even add Hudson to sweeten it) their interest in Gyorko might be less but perhaps they could see him as a good contract to move or a 1bman or even 2b) ( i doubt they’d be interested in arp but i’d entertain the deal if they wanted a 1b like Carp instead of Gyorko) (If they wanted Wong we could make that work too) (if they didnt want Wacha that coudl be worked around as well) we have plenty of options for the Rays)

Carp(3b),Pham,Ozuna,Hosmer,Fowler,DeJong,Yadi,Wong strong
CMart,Archer,Weaver,Mikolos, Waino/Flaherty strong and cheap
Colome,Gregerson,Cecil,Lyons,Brebbia,Bowman,Tuivalala… better and revamped
Bader,FA catcher,GGarcia,JMart,Valera/Meija/Munoz…. pretty solid

we’d still have Flaherty and Hudson and Hicks…with Bader ONeill Knizner

Still at the end of the day Donaldson is only here for one year for sure…unless we could add something to that deal to give us longer term value for the loss of high prospects i dont see the fit…Moustakas, Hosmer, eve JD all could be had for just money…and woudl add about the same level of impact to the lineup as Donaldson at this point

[thejager]

maybe he’d do some AirBNB for ST…im coming down and need a place

[thejager]

thanks Brian… i appreciate the links!

Things always seem to get muddied up in my head around Rule 5 time

[thejager]

wait… so they are still with us for at least one more year then? So we don;t need to re-sign them or anything?

I am a bit confused obviously..

but if we get to hold them another year at least (if we want) that is wonderful news IMO

I really want to see if Wisdom turned a corner and I really want to see Ponce back on that mound

[thejager]

CC well since Wisdom and the other guys eligible for Rule 5 that didnt get picked dont they become minor league free agents or something? or do they stay with us? Id be happy to keep all of them

maybe i am mixing up my rules….i probably am

[thejager]

IF…. and it is a BIG if… IF we are/were interested in winning a bidding war for MAchado after 2018 anyways…trading for him now makes some sense

It sounds like Machado wants to test the market….BUT if we ask them what it will take to get him extended NOW…and we are willing to do that deal regardless of how much it might hurt…then the trade isnt bad…

i think IF we want to go that route…or something similar… our ability to basically let him start getting paid THIS year instead of waiting would be enticing…it is BIG money and BIG money you dont have to wait to start getting…I am sure Boras wouldnt mind getting his percentage a year earlier and MAchado can us it to buy the house he will live in for the long term contract that he wants right now

you have to be willing to go really big though… they say 400mil for 10 years…you cant haggle much if any…or you risk wasting the talent you are giving up to get him a year early

[thejager]

i havent read anywhere that we kicked in money…why woudl you assume that? Is there any reporting on that?

[thejager]

I dont mind driving the price up for someone else, but i think i might be more interesting in trading for Colome than buying Davis.

[thejager]

gained two outfielders i think… Selmo and someone else…

maybe we can quickly snatch up Wisdom, POncedeleon and some of the others available?

[thejager]

both prospects we got look to be pretty solid… nothign spectacular, but both maek good contact and Yairo has some speed and versatility and Max might have a little hidden power…

SS and 2b depth isnt bad….

if i was Valera i’d be a bit worried though…

[thejager]

i read Yairo Munoz might be the guy coming back…i think he was top 10 in their system in 2016 i dont know much about him

[thejager]

poonan…. why would anyone know that? wouldn’t that be basically having information on the actual deal?

A’s have some good players to target… they may not turn heads (outside of BAretto) but could be useful…

I like Jorge Mateo for Piscotty…we sell low on Piscotty and they sell high on Mateo…

i liek MAteo for his versatility of SS and OF combined with his BIlly Hamilton like SB threat… we need backup SS options…and a backup SS option that could play SS and OF and also pinch run for an SB threat late in games seems a great a target…and maybe he could be more

[thejager]

no one is making any moves for the most part

we have to be patient….which sucks… but it’s not like anyone else is doing anything either

plus..we have already done 3 moves

Diaz
Mikolas
Gregerson

that’s more than most teams

plus…we were heavily involved in the one of the two BIG things that has happened the Stanton deal…(and we were at least somewhat involved inthe Ohtani deal too)

I want them to act quickly too, but it’s not like we are doing anything less than any other team

[thejager]

his 4 choices were:

Dodgers (home town and huge money to buy anythign they want including international prospects)…and Yankees.,.. big media market and more money to fix problems…and to be fair a good long reputation of winning or at least spending enough to win…

and

Cubs and Astros…flavors of the week…teams torn down who took advantage of picking in the top 5 or higher for a long time…add in a little payroll muscle BECAUSE of that and you have a destination that seems exciting right now…and who woudlnt be…. BUT Stanton’s contract is 10 more years… both of those organizations will start to fade as they have to start moving their young cheap players so they can afford them OR actually pay them (ala the Rays flourish earlier in the 2010s)…and Stanton;s contract will hurt them long term

the only teams he could really consider would be NYY and LAD…who have more money to and are willing to overspend to fix their problems…and more importantly the only teams who would be happy paying Stantons contract when he starts to slide some…

I just think it is poor that he took meetings with the Cardinals and Giants and led them on…including the Marlins… i dont care if he has every right to do it or not… he knew he was either going home to LAD or going to NYY where he can be a star

the Marlins shoudl have just sat on him…and traded all the players around him… they are rebuilding anyways and wont compete for a while so getting max out of all the players around him he’d be left alone and SEE that happening…i bet his tune woudl have changed when the players protecting him from potentially getting intentionally walked every AB were Prado and Derek Dietrich

trade Ozuna while he watches…then trade Realmuto and Ozuna and Bour….he’d be begging to go to the Cardinals or Giants while he gets walked every AB for a team that would lose 100+ games…

but instead they tried to strongarm him and didnt back it up…and instead caved immediately for nothing of value but saving some money…him reporting to Marlins camp with no one but AAAA players around him whiel he looks across the field and clubhouses at the Cardinals and their HOFers helping every day and new players and full stadiums for ST and he’d be singing a different tune…

[thejager]

Realmuto could be an interesting guy to target….he can play 1b and he is a good catcher…if we could use our backup catcher as a starter at another position we can utilize another bench spot…AND we could feel safe to trade a big time chip in Kelly

I dont ONLY want to look at Realmuto…but i like the flex he could provide…

A Realmuto + Ozuna (maybe Yelich) would bolster the lineup

then a trade for Archer and Colome

i dunno….i think Realmuto is VERY underrated…and he isnt underrated much

[thejager]

this one… when the talent coming back would be as i outlined (or different)….he steps up and offers big money… whether we ended up second or not…when we have identified big time players we have offered up big time money… Price, Pujols, Stanton…

Junior was willing to add on 25million a year for one player up until last week…if they deem players whether for trade or FAs they will do so…if the players arent what they want…they tend to get conservative…

they loved Holiday after trading for him…and then went out and re-signed him to the biggest contract ever for the Cardinals…

adding 45million isnt the issue…but in this scenario if yo ucan add
a Cy Young level SP, an MVP level hitter in Abreu, a GG defender and solid 25HRish guy at 3b…and a young shut down closer….all for them easily amount of 45million…how do you NOT see that as a good investment and good opportunity…barely over 11million per player

yes we lose prospects…and Reyes and Kelly could be REALLY special…but we’d be getting REALLY special players back who arent prospects but have already performed

[thejager]

i definitely agree it woudl be hard and perhaps has little precedent

but wasnt the Holliday deal with the hopes of re-signing him? Perhaps it is not possible or easily possible, but maybe they’d like Pollock so much (or Machado serves just as easily for this discussion) just like they liked Holliday… that they’d pay for the extra time to woo him while in their uniform and prepare themselves for giving them the biggest contract in the clubs history (just like HOlliday)

i get your point…. but i wonder if we coudl snag Pollock…or really Machado….if we coudl start offering him the extension immediately….he doesnt have to wait to get paid another year and deal with the crazy offseason..w.e can offer him huge money and other teams cant talk to him for almost a year…add in being the anchor of a new look tema perhaps to go with the Red jackets and baseball love of StL and you might just get one of the big deals for 2019 done in 2018…and maybe just maybe get it to be with the StL Cardinals and not LAD, CHI, NYY, WASH etc etc

[thejager]

i remember that report about Piscotty and Flaherty or Weaver for Gray at the deadline…didnt think that was new info… that they are still interested is nice

i dont want to sell low on Piscotty…but with his contract jumping up after this year i think we may have to consider it

i like Ryan Dull in their bullpen as a young back end type reliever that woudl help….it’s probably not enough but he woudlnt be a throw away player and he was pretty impressive at time last year…

Jorge MAteo or BErreto woudl be worth targeting too as we coudl use better middle infield depth…though it may take more to get Berreto of course but probably MAteo too…but maybe not…
after that…i dunno… CHris Hatcher in their pen has been good in the past…

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