[Bob Reed]

“But, yes, when someone is caught, a common defense is that ‘everyone else is doing it, too.’ It never matters, though.”

The “everyone else is doing it” is one of the few statements that’s always a lie. But it is the World Champion Rationalization. Undefeated, never even been knocked down. It’s Marciano, Mosconi, and Bob Mathias rolled into one.

Cycling was dirty, thanks to people like Armstrong. Baseball was dirty, thanks to McGwire, Bonds, Clemens, et. al. And the Chicago cops were dirty during the days of Capone.

But not all ChiTown cops were dirty. Not all cyclists were injecting. And certainly not all baseball players chose the path of least resistance during the so-called “steroid era.”

I don’t mind beatin’ a dead horse so I’ll say it again. If Rob Manfred is at all serious about stopping electronic cheating in baseball — or at least containing it as much as is humanly possible — then lifetime banishment for the highest-up individual implicated within both the Astros and Red Sox is the sole course of action. Not just draft picks or fines or suspensions or symbolic vacated titles. Those are necessary, too, but not sufficient.

Permanent expulsion. Separate the head from the rest of the snake.

[Bob Reed]

“It’s a real shame that Jim Edmonds didn’t get any support at all in his time on the ballot, although Rolen probably has a bit stronger case.”

Edmonds v. Rolen, huh? Good question, stl25.

Since the Hall Of Fame existed for many decades before WAR valuations were ever calculated, I like to primarily use the four classic Bill James HOF yardsticks to evaluate Hall candidates rather than WAR. (Yeah, I’m a heretic. Sue me.) For those not versed in said yardsticks, please check out Baseball-Reference.com.

Black Ink Test
Neither Rolen nor Edmonds score a point here, as neither ever led their league in a batting, baserunning, or (of course) pitching category.

Gray Ink Test (144 points = average HOFer)
Rolen 27, Edmonds 60
Edmonds thrashes Rolen, but each of them falls far short, when it comes to ranking in league top 10’s.

Hall Of Fame Monitor (100 = likely HOFer)
Rolen 99, Edmonds 88
Both have decent arguments here, Rolen a bit stronger. Neither would embarrass the Hall with their presence.

Hall Of Fame Standards (50 = average HOFer)
Rolen 40, Edmonds 39
Fairly close in both cases, but certainly nothing persuasive in favor of either.

So we’re left with a commonplace conundrum. If you’re a “large Hall” guy, Rolen is in, and maybe Edmonds. If “small Hall,” clearly neither makes the grade.

[Bob Reed]

“It seems like we have drafted as low as any team. Does anyone know the answer to this?”

Well at the risk of stating the obvious, draft position is of course regular season record reversed. So a pretty good 20-year estimate of relative draft positions could be created by looking at each team’s regular season win total over the past two decades. Here’s the top ten.

Yankees 1,886 victories
GAP
Cardinals 1,812
Carmines 1,792
Dodgers 1,781
GAP
Braves 1,735
Athletics 1,729
Angels 1,722
GAP
Giants 1,676
Indians 1,671
GAP
Phillies 1,637

I think we’re forced to conclude that the Yankees had the worst draft slots over the past 20 years. But the Cardinals could very well have had the 2nd-worst.

[Bob Reed]

“How widespread is this really, on an institutional level? As they say, if you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.”

That’s what “they” say, alright. Whenever the “they” is question is a liar, thief, or cheat of some stripe.

Chris Correa was banned for life. Atlanta Braves GM John Coppollela was banned for life. So multiple precedents are already in place.

Whomever within the Astros organization (and Red Sox) was highest up in issuing the mandate for, or explicitly approving these illegal/unethical actions should be banned for life — not merely suspended.

The Astros or Red Sox cannot be permitted to become the New England Patriots of major league baseball, i.e., the team that gets a slap on the wrist and then proceeds to keep cheating over and over and over and over, winning half-fraudulent titles in the process.

The hammer needs to come down now. Swift, heavy, permanent. That’s the only sufficient curative.

[Bob Reed]

“Should any credit be given for Kyle Hendrick? He was acquired in the Dempster trade with the Rangers. Obviously a shrewd acquisition, but not a home grown prospect.”

“The ranking is based on drafts. Did the Cubs draft Hendricks?”

Sorry I didn’t sufficiently clarify before, guys. The rankings I was critiquing in my earlier post — wherein the cubs were 4th and the Cardinals 7th — was an MLB Pipeline ranking of the decade’s best farm systems. The draft rankings cited previously by Brian Walton, with the Birds rated 6th, were from Baseball America. Two related but distinct rankings, from different sources, and I’m just examining the former, not the latter.

———————————–

As for Kyle Hendricks, when ranking farm systems MLB Pipeline gave credit for anyone who spent the majority of his minor league career with that franchise. Since Hendricks was still in A-ball when Chicago traded for him, the cubs do get credit for his MLB achievements. But conversely, applying the same standard they do NOT get any credit for, say, Anthony Rizzo.

Returning to the relative rankings of the Cards and cubs, we saw earlier that the Cards have generated considerably more MLB value than Chicago over the past decade, 235 WAR to 192 WAR for their Windy City rivals. But what about going forward? Which club’s farm system products look the strongest for the future?

Well, here’s all of the positive position player WAR generated in 2019 by hitters who were aged 25 and under. Cubs first.

Gleyber Torres 3.9 WAR
Eloy Jimenez 1.4
Ian Happ 1.2
Victor Caratini 0.9

Not too shabby. Notice, though, the bland total for Eloy Jimenez, despite his seemingly outstanding season, with 31 homers and a .267 average for the White Sox. The trouble with the 23-year-old Jimenez is that despite his youth he’s already a lumbering liability in the outfield and on the bases. Gleyber Torres, on the other hand, looks like a big star going forward. (And Brian Cashman looks shrewd as usual, for acquiring him for three months of Aroldis Chapman.)

Anyway, that’s 7.4 WAR for the cubs. How about the young Cardinal bats in 2019?

Paul DeJong 4.1 WAR
Tommy Edman 3.8
Harry Bader 2.0
Carson Kelly 1.9

So that’s 11.8 WAR for the Cards. There’s no Gleyber Torres here, but Paul DeJong has established himself as a 4-WAR borderline star, and the StL depth is quite clearly superior. But who has the better position player quartet for 2020 and beyond? For me, I’m leaning toward calling it a draw, since superstars are so rare and hard-hitting shortstop Torres is the closest thing to a likely superstar for either team. So the pitchers will have to break the tie.

————————————–

This brings us to the twirlers. Here’s the complete 2019 positive WAR list of 25-and-under pitchers from the cub farm system, omitting of course the guys like Dylan Cease who generated negative WAR.

James Norwood 0.1

Yes, that is indeed THE James Norwood, late of St. Louis University, contributing the sole positive WAR value to the enemies of St. Louis. I don’t think we need a calculator to figure Norwood brings the total to 7.5 WAR for Chicago. Now the Cardinals.

Jack Flaherty 6.0
Sandy Alcantara 2.9
Zac Gallen 2.5
Dakota Hudson 2.0
Luke Weaver 1.7
Ryan Helsley 0.6
Jordan Hicks 0.6

If you were wondering, that’s a cumulative 778 innings (3.22 ERA) or 768 2/3 innings more than the cub farm system generated in 2019 from its young arms. Check and mate.

[Bob Reed]

Bob, I don’t share your interpretation.
Had the organization soured on Albert, they would not have fired Greer after the season and replaced him with Russ Steinhorn to run minor league hitting instruction. Steinhorn is in his 30s and has a similar philosophical outlook on hitting as Albert, I am told.

At this point, there is no connection between Albert and the Astros cheating. He was not on the major league staff in 2017. However, he was among the more than 50 people interviewed, so it is still unknown if he will be punished. He told his bosses there is nothing to worry about. Yes, he could be lying. That is what due process is for. Fortunately, here in America, people are not presumed guilty (and lose their jobs and professional credibility) unless there is real evidence against them.

——————-

I see what you’re saying, Brian, and I guess my earlier remarks lacked some necessary nuance. I should have said that (to me) Mo acknowledged that the transition to the Jeff Albert Way (or J.A.W.) was a failure. And furthermore that things would be done differently in 2020 than they were in 2019, when indoctrinating batters into the J.A.W. Again, paraphrasing Mo’s words they “tried to run before learning to walk.” Which I took to mean that the transition to the J.A.W. was too abrupt — but NOT that Albert’s methods in and of themselves were in any way inferior.

Jeff Albert could be the best hitting coach since sliced bread. It’s too soon to say. But it’s not at all too soon to say that the Cards as a team underachieved at the plate in 2019. (Good news is, the various forecasting systems expect numerous Redbird bouncebacks in 2020.)

Regarding the other thing, the Astro thing. I apologize for the confusion. I did not mean to imply that Jeff Albert might be crooked. I don’t think he’s crooked, and I don’t think his job is in immediate jeopardy. Not at all. What I was trying to say, though, was Jeff Albert might be the new Jeff Pentland. Remember him?

The following is excerpted from a Chicago Tribune article by Teddy Greenstein in 2001.

In his first spring training with the Cubs, in 1998, new hitting coach Jeff Pentland challenged Sosa to join baseball’s “upper echelon” of hitters.

After a season in which he batted just .251 and struck out 129 more times than he walked, Sosa was open to suggestions.
Pentland convinced him to lower his hands, to utilize his legs as a power source and, most importantly, to eliminate the “springiness” in his swing.
“Sammy always seemed like he was in a hurry to hit the ball,” Pentland says. “Everything was fast and hard and he didn’t have much finesse.
“If you watch boxers, they’re always trying to loosen their arms. Relaxation makes you quicker. Tension makes you slow.”

Pentland cues up the videotape showing the 471-foot homer that Sosa cranked Saturday off future Hall of Famer Greg Maddux.
“I don’t think I’ve ever seen him swing this good,” Pentland says. “His swing is so short and his knowledge is so improved, it’s incredible. He’s getting better with age, like a fine wine. As long as he stays healthy, I don’t see him having any downside.”

“Pentland’s a genius!” people exclaimed. Of course, we found out later that Jeff Pentland had little or nothing to do with Sosa’s almost magical transformation as a hitter. Like Jeff Albert, there’s no reason whatever to think Pentland was crooked. But Pentland also was not the primary cause of Sosa’s success. And similarly, it is very hard, well nigh impossible in fact, to accurately interpret the success of Astro batters over the past several seasons.

———————————

“I don’t think it’s fair to use OPS when discussing the Cardinals offense. The Cards had a wRC+ of 95 last year, good for 7th in the NL, league average was 94.
Meanwhile, by OPS, they were 11th in the NL with .737, with league-average being .754.
They were also 4th-BEST in the NL in both 2017 and 2018 by wRC+.”

Those are fair points, Pads. The Redbird home park has played at a 97 and 98 Park Factor over the past two years, so that distorts things a little. And OPS isn’t as good as wRC+, since on-base percentage is more important than slugging and raw OPS obviously does not reflect that.

I only sought to compare Cardinal hitters to themselves, relative to how they performed under the guidance of Jeff Albert, John Mabry, and Budaska/Greer. I know their wRC+ was mediocre in 2019, but I don’t have Mabry/Greer/Budda splits for wRC+ in 2018. So I just used OPS relative to league norms.

Given how much numerous Cardinal batting averages plummeted in 2019, I cannot imagine anyone would characterize the club’s season hitting line as anything other than an organizational underachievement.

————————————-

“They are banking on players rebounding from bad years. Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Fowler, DeJong, Ozuna, and Bader. That’s taking a big risk there.”

It’s a risk, Rat. No doubt. But I think it’s a good gamble, and so far the available forecasting models agree. Specifically, there are three publicly published forecasts that I know of (Steamer, Marcel, Clay Davenport), and on average they expect big bouncebacks from many Bird bats.

Again, before I list these, bear in mind that this is the average of the three available forecasts. This isn’t me. This isn’t the optimistic version. This is a trio of coolly objective systems, taken in aggregate. Nothing could be more even-handed, I don’t think. So here’s what they say.

Matt Carpenter will improve by 75 points of OPS.
Harrison Bader will increase his OPS by 61 points.
Paul Goldschmidt will be 40 points better.
Paul DeJong will see a 37-point improvement.
Yadi Molina will get a 30-point boost.

Now, of course there are some less rosy forecasts too. Kolten Wong and Dexter Flower are each expected to decline by roughly 20 points, and Tommy Edman don’t even ask. Okay, an 83-point drop. But taken as a whole, and factoring in the knowledge that Edman was unlikely to get full-time at-bats anyway, this projects to a two or three game improvement in the standings.

[Bob Reed]

“BA ranks the Cards as having the sixth best drafts of the last decade. (I may have already put this on another thread when it was posted on 12/31, so sorry if this is a duplication.)”

Thanks for the link, Brian. Sounds about right, a solid sixth place. And at least BA uses some sort of objective measuring tool to reach their conclusion, unlike when MLB Pipeline rated the top farm systems for the past decade — a list I know you alluded to several days back, Brian. Here’s a link to that mlb.com article: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-top-farm-systems-of-decade

Their ranking:
1) Atlanta
2) Houston
3) Boston
4) cubs
5) Washington
6) Arizona
7) Cardinals
8) Dodgers
9) Marlins
10) Royals

With Jim Callis’ name attached to it, given his awful 15-20 year track record at two websites, I assumed that the ranking would have a pro-cub or anti-Cardinal slant to it, or both. (I’ll let the reader judge that for himself or herself, once this post is over.)
Anyway, their methodology.

We reviewed each player who graduated to the big leagues from 2010-19 and assigned them to the organization with which they logged the most plate appearances or innings in the Minors before losing their Rookie status. And rather than just tally Wins Above Replacement, we compensated for stars such as Ronald Acuña or Juan Soto who arrived toward the end of the 2010s by giving them credit for bright futures.

That’s an even-handed premise, as long as the teams are each measured with the same yardstick. In any case, the Cards properly get no credit for the achievements of Randal Grichuk or David Freese or Giovanny Gallegos for example, as they spent most of their minor league time in other organizations. But the Birds do get credit for instance for Adam Ottavino, who’s found greener pastures away from the Arch. The Cubs get credit for Kyle Hendricks but not Anthony Rizzo. You get the gist.

To see how well the nominal experts did with their rankings, I say we should have an objective side-by-side comparison between the two teams. Let’s see precisely how crappy and biased a job Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo did, relative to the Cards and cubs. Or perhaps I am being unfair. Let’s crunch numbers.

————————-

We’ll look at Baseball-Reference WAR for both teams. We’ll do this for the decade as a whole, separately tabulating totals for hitters and pitchers to clarify each organization’s respective strengths and shortcomings. (I’ll bet some of you can already see where this is headed.)

And then we’ll examine the WAR accrued just during the 2019 season by their younger pitchers & hitters, the 25-and-unders, to see which organization is likely to add the most value moving forward. Cubs get credit for 23-year-old Eloy Jimenez, the Cards for 24-year-old Jack Flaherty, and so on. (Semi-disclaimer: I may have missed a half win here or there when calculating WAR values, but I don’t think so. I’m pretty neurotic about that sort of thing.)

First, position players.
The Cardinal hitters can claim 124.2 WAR for the decade, led by Matt Carpenter with 26.7 and Kolten Wong with 15.6. Tommy Pham, Jon Jay, and Paul DeJong each exceeded 10 WAR during the decade as well.

The cubs are a bit stronger in position players with 142.8 WAR from 2010-2019, topped by Kris Bryant (25.1) and D.J. LeMahieu (23.5). While the Cardinals had five position players with double-digit WAR, the cubs had six, supplementing their big two with Starlin Castro, Javy Baez, Welington Castillo, and Willson Contreras. (Why Willson wouldn’t give Welington one of his L’s, no one knows. Contraras didn’t need it, and they’re both catchers. There should be alphabetical solidarity.)

So the cubs being ranked a few slots above the Cards makes sense at this point. But unfortunately for Chicago, pitching also matters. And just like in Boston, Theo Epstein and his minions are bottom of the barrel at pitcher development. (Brief unrelated aside. According to Fangraphs, the Cubs, as an entire organization, for the whole decade 2010-2019 produced less WAR from rookie pitchers than Giovanny Gallegos produced for the Cardinals in 2019 all by himself. Stop laughing, it’s very sad.)

Pitching. The cubs had 48.9 WAR over the past decade, with 19.5 WAR from the aforementioned Kyle Hendricks. The Cards had 110.7, led by Lance Lynn with 22.2 wins above replacement. I’ll spare any cub fans the details in this matter.

That’s 234.9 WAR for St. Louis and 191.7 for Chicago. More than four wins per year on average. So there is zero room for debate, in my opinion. The cubs were not close to the Cardinals over the past decade. But what about the future?

I’ll examine that in another post much later tonight. Spoiler alert: cub fans may not want to return for that one.

[Bob Reed]

Excellent points, Pads. Especially about Lohse and Peralta, both of whom had kind of slipped my mind lately. Good, relatively low-risk moves, Lohse in particular.

And if Neshek hasn’t retired, I’d like to see the Cards bring him in on an incentive-laden deal, or perhaps even as an NRI at Spring Training. I like a bullpen with a variety of pitching styles, and Neshek would of course already be familiar with the city and the organizational culture.

You’re more forgiving than I am, though, when it comes to Andrew Miller. I think Miller has also backfired pretty badly — but at least he didn’t cost a high draft pick in addition to the pile of money set on fire. Like with Holland. Bleccch.

The B-Ref and Fangraphs sites each have Miller sub-replacement level for last year, and his Win Probability Added was also quite poor, signifying that he was at his worst at pretty much the worst possible times. (Actually, now that I look it up, he permitted just a .637 OPS in “low leverage” situations, and a .786 in “high leverage.”)

Who should the Cards go after in free agency, even on the cheaper deals? You’re right, Pads, that’s the key. And the scout or scouts who recommended Cecil, Gregerson, Holland, and Miller should be sacked. Or reassigned anyway. Because that quartet has an $80,000,000 price tag and has (per B-Ref values) cost the team three full games in the standings. Yes, they’ve been collectively worth negative three WAR so far.

Anyway, like cranny and card25, I am very optimistic about KK Kim. And I wish that casual fans didn’t judge him by the modest contract. He’s a real talent, even if he’ll make a fraction of fellow lefties Keuchel, Bumgarner, and Ryu. People praise the short-term deal for Kim. But at a mere $4-5M per year, I’d rather have him for a decade than just two years. I’ve got a good feeling about the guy.

[Bob Reed]

Thanks very much for the Mo interview link, Brian! I had no idea there was a regular radio gig at 11:30 Sunday mornings. I’ll have to start tuning in.

Two strongly positive things struck me.

1) Zero mention of Marcell Ozuna at all, from either Ackerman or Mo, when discussing the outfield picture moving forward. Maybe I missed something that was edited out, but to my overjoyed ears it sure sounded like Mo was ready to give the young guns the chance to prove themselves.

2) Mo tacitly accepted that the Jeff Albert Way was a flop. Which of course it was, and a dismal one. I’ll elaborate on that in a minute.

But first, speaking of hitting coaches, let’s recap the past two seasons:
In 2018 with John Mabry as hitting coach, the team posted an OPS 8 points below the N.L. average. Then, after Mabry was replaced midseason by a pair of highly respected, albeit old school back-to-basics organization men in Mark Budaska and George Greer — and despite two fine hitters (Pham, Voit) being traded away around the same time — the Cards skyrocketed to an OPS 31 points above the N.L. average.

Then in 2019, with Astros boy genius Jeff Albert brought in as hitting coach, and with the tremendous (and tremendously consistent) bat of Paul Goldschmidt added to the everyday lineup, and with Tommy Edman providing a lightning bolt out of the blue, the Cardinals staggered to an OPS 16 points below the National League average. (Budaska and Greer, oldsters both, were of course fired.)

Summary:
In 2018, with Mabry and a full roster, a bit below average team hitting.
In 2018, with Greer & Budaska, but no Pham or Voit, elite team hitting.
In 2019, with Jeff Albert, plus Goldy & Edman, quite poor team hitting.

So, the Jeff Albert Way was a flop. But Mo acknowledged it! He specifically said that the team “tried to run before walking,” and that this year the ongoing transition to Jeff Albert’s methods would be handled differently. (Now, if it were up to me, I’d have probably just gotten rid of the guy. Especially since we now know that at least some of the Astro hitters of at least the past three seasons are frauds to an unknown extent, much like the New England Patriots of the Belicheat years.)

But for some crazy reason the Cardinal brass did not seek my advice, so Jeff Albert endures. At any rate, as frustrating as 2019 was, it is nevertheless quite encouraging to hear Mo admit the gaffe publicly. That’s truly admirable, in its way. (From the outside looking in, though, and with the admittedly incomplete information that implies, it still feels like the discarding of the two wise and wizened hitting coaches was rather shameful. Maybe the Coen Brothers should write an adaptation: No Cardinals For Old Men.)

[Bob Reed]

“…I still would prefer waiting until the end of the year and give Yadi a lesser contract like they did with Waino. I understand wanting to respect a legend but didn’t his current $60M contract show enough respect?”

“I am not into the lifetime achievement awards. That is why we currently have no payroll flexibility.”

I am with you 100%, gscott, regarding Yadi. He’s only been a real asset with the bat once or twice in the past half dozen years, and moreover the framing/blocking/throwing have declined to the point where the team ERA has been lower over the past two years with the backups behind the dish than with Yadi — a truly HUGE reversal of his previous career-long trend.

Lots of blame to go around, though, when it comes to the payroll squeeze. And this would be good timing for payroll flexibility, right? I mean, wouldn’t it be nice to have, say, Mookie Betts plus some dough left over, instead of Fowler, Cecil, and Miller? That trying trio will make about $35,000,000 in 2020. (They’ve combined to give the club just under one WAR, for just over 80 million bucks.)

Mo and Girsch were bailed out by the draft & development people in 2019, thanks to tremendous contributions from Flaherty, Hudson, Edman, Wong, and DeJong. The raft of bad contracts was gonna get the front office gutted in my opinion, if the club missed the playoffs for a fourth straight season. But perhaps that’s just wishful thinking. (Relatedly, the ubiquitous StL/Ozuna talk is really starting to give me a belly ache, a baseball ulcer, just like the Hosmer and Fowler speculation did — and somehow one of those horror stories came true, unfortunately. If they bring Ozuna back, throwing away the draft pick and blocking those talented young outfielders*, then they have learned exactly nothing from the Dexter debacle.)

But I digress. This a Yadi thread, and as others have said, the thing that’s best for the team in my eyes is to wait. Wait, like they should’ve waited on the Carpenter extension. Wait, like they should’ve waited on the Goldschmidt extension. Wait, like they probably should’ve waited on the Mikolas extension. Wait to see how much more Yadi has aged, wait until you don’t have to by rule give him an overpay. Wait until November when you can give him a contract that aligns with the 38-year-old player he’ll be then — not the star he was three or four seasons ago.

———————-

*Don’t anyone say “There’s no such thing as too much talent on a roster.” Tell that to Tommy Pham, who made the mistake of competing for playing time with Delicate Dexter Fowler, the 82 million dollar man. If the Cards retain Ozuna, it will not only unnecessarily cost them money and a high draft pick, but I’d bet a month’s rent it will sooner or later mean trading away some outfielder (or two or three) for much less than full value. Just like with Pham.

[Bob Reed]

The following is not intended as a rebuttal of anyone in particular. (All WAR values come from Baseball-Reference.com.)

————————-

I understand that some Redbird fans, and some sportswriters, are most comfortable by far with what might be called “veteran certainty,” and thus advocate that the Cards retain Marcell Ozuna for left field. (Among local scribes, Derrick Goold in particular likes to talk a lot about Marcell Ozuna’s “certainty” and how valuable that is.) So let’s look at what veteran certainty has gotten the club over the past few years.

The past three offseasons have seen trades for power-hitting MLB veterans Marcell Ozuna and Paul Goldschmidt, as well as the free agent signings of veteran outfielder Dexter Fowler and a quartet of well-established thirtysomething MLB relievers.

Those seven MLB veterans have so far combined for 13 seasons wearing the Birds on the Bat, and cost the Cardinals $143,000,000 — plus three high draft picks, plus four years of Luke Weaver (1.7 WAR in 2019), five years of Carson Kelly (1.9 WAR), six years of Zac Gallen (2.5 WAR), and six of Sandy Alcantara (2.9 WAR).

For that $143,000,000, plus the three high draft picks, and the 21 years of what looks to be highly productive player control, the Cards have so far gotten 6.8 WAR worth of “veteran certainty.” As you no doubt noted, the four UN-certain NON-veterans produced 9 WAR in 2019 alone. And there’s 17 more seasons to go.

Ahh, but that’s not all. How about the “low-hanging” acquisitions of the past few years, the guys without MLB “veteran certainty” to their names? How have those turned out?

Low-hanging foreign imports Miles Mikolas and Seunghwan Oh have combined to cost the Cards just under $21M for four years of production. Just under $21M, and no draft picks, and no young talent. And in return the Birds got 5.9 WAR from the Lizard King and 2.6 more from the Final Boss. So, recapping. Low hangers, 8.5 WAR for under $21M. Veteran certainty, I can’t bear to type it again.

The Cards should get back to what they do right. Get back to the First Principles that have led them to so much success during the DeWitt years.
1) Develop from within, both bats & arms.
2) Make small shrewd free agent signings, and trades when needed.
3) Retain your stars and superstars when possible.

What is not and should never be on that list, is blocking very good internal options with merely above average hitters and pitchers. They let Kyle Lohse go via free agency, even though he was coming off a real fine season, because they had pitchers in the pipeline. They let Lance Lynn* go, even though he was still good, and well-liked, because they had pitchers in the pipeline.

And now they should let Marcell Ozuna go. Because there isn’t a team in the majors with as much young outfield talent as the Cardinals. The organizational depth chart is literally littered with guys who’ve (in various sample sizes) dominated Triple-A or the majors already. Are they all future stars? Nope, not at all. And neither is Marcell Ozuna. Some baby birds of course are more prepared than others for a fulltime MLB role — but in my unhumble opinion there is nearly zero chance that Ozuna is significantly better at the plate than all of them right now. And Ozuna needs to be significantly better than all of them with the bat, because they’re pretty much all faster afield with stronger throwing arms than Harvey Wallclimber.

—————————–

*(Lance Lynn is obviously a special case, as I think the Cards would’ve happily kept him if he’d have signed for $12M for one season, or $10M a year for three years. But when he turned free agent, of course nobody thought he’d be available at those prices, or even close. Good heavens, Zach Wheeler just got $120M with much the lesser resume than Lance had.)

[Bob Reed]

I would just more or less echo all of Brian’s thoughts on this matter — but with one addition.

I think I’ve been too skeptical about a certain Cardinal arm over the past few years, owing mainly to his rather advanced age for each of his minor league stops. So, in support of this pitcher I want to do a copy & paste from a recent Derrick Goold chat.

Fun stat coming. The following ten great pitchers have allowed a collective career OPS of .639 when used as a starting pitcher: Scherzer, Kershaw, Strasburg, Cole, Verlander, Greinke, DeGrom, Bumgarner, Kluber, and Sale. Again, that’s a .639 OPS allowed as a starter.

There’s a current Redbird twirler with just a couple years experience who has allowed a mere .632 OPS as a starter. Think about that, huh? By one meaningful measure, slightly better so far than the career average of a bunch of superstars. And that Cardinal pitcher’s name is not Jack Flaherty or Dakota Hudson. It’s Daniel Ponce de Leon. As Casey said, you can look it up.

———————-

And I would add that Ponce hasn’t allowed a stolen base in 72 opportunities. (That is, conventional opportunities, man on first base with second base unoccupied.) So, with a great OPS against, and the utter negation of a running game, why isn’t his major league ERA much more dazzling? He’s permitted an .839 OPS with RISP — and a nightmarish .976 with two outs and RISP.

Maybe he overthrows under pressure, maybe he tightens up just a little, or tips his pitches periodically. I don’t know what it is, assuming of course that it’s anything other than random. But it’s certainly something for Maddux, Shildt, and Ponce to look into.

[Bob Reed]

“Well, Jeter is not going to get 100 percent. This is a most curious ballot, for nine, not 10 candidates.”

So, was that cited ballot just a meager practical joke by Mr. DeJesus, Brian? Because I still see Derek Jeter with 100% at Ryan Thibodeaux’s website.

And speaking of Marlins CEO Jeter, I don’t think he’s received enough attention for the attendance boost in Miami from 2018 to 2019. Specifically, the fish improved the head count from 811,104 all the way to 811,302. At that rate of growth they’ll top three million fans in just 11,055 more years.

[Bob Reed]

You’re welcome, ChiTown. And thank you in turn, for the funny “short guys” anecdote. Tyler O’Neill & Harry Bader both are built like fire hydrants, adding to the ball boy resemblance.

I meant to add something to the earlier Ivan Herrera comments. As it is the season for gluttony, I feel a heaping helping of Herrera hoopla is appropriate. This is from a couple months back:
https://www.mlb.com/news/top-hitting-prospects-in-arizona-fall-league?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

This was my favorite part:
“His batting practice before the Fall Stars Game, meanwhile, was among my favorites. He showed plus pull-side raw power, parking balls well over the fence with ease, and hitting them farther than most other hitters on the field that day.”

A teenager is not supposed to be among the most impressive batting practice performers in the Arizona Fall League. (For a guy whose greatest weakness by far as a hitter is supposed to be a lack of power, that is one very reassuring scrap of scouting.)

[Bob Reed]

First of all, thanks, Brian, for bringing this prospect list to everyone’s attention! Pretty good analyses, by and large uncontaminated by the typical typos and grammar gaffes. I’ve never been to that website before, but it’ll be a regular destination for me now.

———————–

“A 19 y/o catcher, putting up great numbers in A+ AND the AFL….. and the catching seems to be above average.”
“Just my opinion, but you’re all under rating him!!! Happy New Year Cards fans!”

Happy New Year back at you, ChiTown, and I agree wholeheartedly that Ivan Herrera is wildly underrated. (I have him in roughly the 40-50 range among all prospects.) However, please forgive me if I do feel compelled to slightly amend a couple of your observations. Herrera did put up a great line for Low-A Peoria in 2019 (136 wRC+), but he was just league average at A+ Palm Beach. On the other hand he was only 18 years old for half the season, so the performance overall was indeed truly tremendous for a batter of his age. I share your well-founded enthusiasm for his season.

And he did, just as you say, put up excellent numbers in the Double-A equivalent Arizona Fall League. The thing is, that was barely 40 trips to the plate. Encouraging, yes. But upon reflection maybe not as encouraging as the mere fact that the organization sent him there at all. That’s a lot of faith to show in a young kid catcher, and he did not disappoint.

As for glovework, not so glowing. I don’t think the defense can be deemed acceptable yet, much less above average. The caught stealing was fine & dandy in 2019, at 31% across the two levels during the regular season, then 33% in Arizona. But the errors and passed balls were both a chunk too high for my comfort. And moreover, passed ball rates tend to strongly correlate for good or bad with pitch-blocking skills. So Ivan likely has multiple skills to hone.

But I don’t mean to just throw cold water. Based on everything I’ve seen and read, Herrera is fairly nimble, quite intelligent, extremely determined, and very hard-working. I’m no sports psychologist, but he seems to possess that blend of humility and confidence necessary for pro sports development. So I would say that the potential is certainly there for “above averageness” behind the dish. But he’s not there yet.

[Bob Reed]

“However, rather than blaming it on the writers – who have a very tough job to do to sort this all out and invariably 420 voters are not all going to see it the same way – why not point back at the Hall itself? For decades, they have purposely provided only vague guidelines to the voters instead of taking on the issues themselves.”

—————————

I agree 100%, Brian, that the writers have a quite difficult chore. And for far too long the Hall Of Fame wimped out re guidelines for voters. But it felt to me like the Hall finally provided the firm and explicit guidance you describe two years ago, when in November of 2017 vice chairman of the Hall Joe Morgan stated the following in a letter sent to all Hall Of Fame voting members:

“We hope the day never comes when known steroid users are voted into the Hall of Fame,” Morgan wrote. “They cheated. Steroid users don’t belong here.’

He continued, “Players who failed drug tests, admitted using steroids, or were identified as users in Major League Baseball’s investigation into steroid abuse, known as the Mitchell Report, should not get in. Those are the three criteria that many of the players and I think are right.”

And finally, “By cheating, they put up huge numbers, and they made great players who didn’t cheat look smaller by comparison, taking away from their achievements and consideration for the Hall of Fame. That’s not right.”

As respected baseball writer Joe Posnanski opined at the time, “Let’s not mistake this. The letter was sent from the Hall of Fame email address. This Joe Morgan letter is the Hall of Fame’s stance.”

[Bob Reed]

“Girsch said this very thing on MLBN a week or two ago (with Vasgersian I think). He said in an ideal world, if everyone plays to form in ST and is healthy to start the season, then Edman will not have a starting “position” — but he will get starts at different positions depending on who needs rest, pitching matchups, etc.”

And Mo also said something very similar when interviewed on the MLB network during the Winter Meetings. Specifically referred to Tommy Edman as filling a “Ben Zobrist” type role. Which is smart, in my opinion, even if Tommy E. projects as slightly more valuable overall than Carp as a third baseman, or even Wong at the keystone.

Let’s accept at face value the projections I referenced earlier in the thread, with Carp hitting slightly better than Edman in 2020. If Tommy starts over Carp, the hot corner position would generate a little more value, e.g., half a win or perhaps one full win. But if Tommy does start, then the team gets less out of the two of them as a combo than they would if Carp started and Edman played the role of Swiss Army knife, spelling guys all over the diamond and accumulating 75-80% (or more) of a starter’s typical workload in plate appearances.

Carp cannot start, or even fill in, at any other position anymore, other than first base — and that spot will be taken for 150+ games in all likelihood. He can’t pinch run either, but Edman sure can. There’s no flexibility there, no way to leverage Carp other than pinch-hitting.

It may not be fair to Tommy, strictly speaking, to only get 100-120 starts rather than 140-150. But it is probably best for the team as currently constructed. Now, if Yairo Munoz had turned out to be the player they thought they’d traded for, i.e., a solid 1-2 WAR utilityman, things would be different. But from what we know now, Tommy certainly seems to be by far the best bench choice. Then, depending on several variables, maybe he takes over for Carp next year, or Kolten the year after that. Or heck, maybe he switches to outfielder if he retains most of 2019’s power surge.

That power would be a sweet belated Christmas present for all of us.

[Bob Reed]

“Tommy Edman will start somewhere…other than maybe Goldschmidt he is our most productive offensive player.”

This certainly could be true, once we factor Tommy’s exceptional baserunning into the equation. But speaking strictly from a batting standpoint, here are some OPS forecasts for returning Redbirds — taking the average of the Steamer and Marcel projection models:

Goldy .867 (46 points above 2019)
Carpenter .798 (+72 v. 2019)
DeJong .787 (+25)
Edman .785 (-65)
Jose M. .774 (+23)
Wong .762 (-22)
Fowler .736 (-18)
Bader .732 (+52)
Yadi .724 (+13)

So we see that Jose and Dexter Fowler are expected to hit like middle infielders, while Goldschmidt, Bader, and Carpenter are all predicted to have big bounceback seasons, and Tommy E. will decline significantly but still be a terrific bench player who could start for at least 15-20 teams.

(Tangent Alert!)

Taking just the presumptive Opening Day seven starters, there’s a total OPS improvement of 168 points. Since 50-60 points of OPS for a fulltime batter equals approximately 10 runs or 1 win, those 168 represent an improvement of roughly three games in the standings. In other words, those within and without the Cardinal organization who are banking on a substantial collective improvement from returning Redbird batters are strongly supported by some objectively-generated data.

Lastly, regarding Jose Martinez and playing time distribution. Just for kicks I checked the Clay Davenport 50th percentile 2020 WAR forecasts for ALL of the possible Cardinal outfielders. I prorated everyone to 600 plate appearances, and here are the results in inverse order:

Adolis Garcia 1.2 WAR
Justin Williams 1.7
Jose Martinez 1.7
Tyler O’Neill 1.8
Dexter Fowler 2.0
Rangel Ravelo 2.1
Tommy Edman 2.2
Dylan Carlson 2.3
Marcell Ozuna 2.5
Lane Thomas 3.1
Randy Arozarena 3.1
Harry Bader 4.1

My immediate expectations aren’t quite that high for Arozarena, and certainly not for Lane Thomas, who was barely an average bat in AAA last year, before 40 or 50 terrific and terrifically meaningless MLB trips to the dish. (Don’t get sore, Lane. I swear I really DO appreciate your contribution to the division title. I just mean “meaningless” as a predictor of future MLB performance. Also, Merry Christmas young man.)

Anyway, if the above numbers are even remotely close to prescient, there’s no reason to retain Ozuna at literally any price. Not for a buck a year. Because if you keep him, even for cheaper than dirt, you lose a draft pick. And the draft pick has real value, especially to a team that excels at Draft & Devel. Cleanup hitters or not, there certainly appear to be numerous other Cardinals who can match or very nearly match Ozuna’s total contribution to the team. Or maybe even exceed it.

And just like 12 months ago, Jose Martinez should be traded to an A.L. team for whatever the Birds can get. In part because there are many others much younger with more upside both short and long term, and in part because his manager will overuse him if given any opportunity.

[Bob Reed]

Where do you rank a guy, when he’s in his 30’s already and you’re only guaranteed to have him for two years? Pretty tricky. Well, one good thing is that the Korean Baseball Organization is equivalent to the American upper minors — like Triple-A, but a lowish Triple-A — so he’s effectively been effective in lowish Triple-A ball for more than a decade. (For those who don’t know, he was MVP of the league way back when he was just 20 years old.) Thus, there’s a huge body of work that should make his MLB projections more reliable.

Naturally I’ve been looking at Kim’s forecast per the ZiPS projection model, the only one available for Kim so far. And I have to say I’m pretty darn impressed.

ZiPS pegs him for 157 innings in 2020, with a 3.89 ERA and 106 ERA+. How good is a 106 ERA+ for a starting pitcher? At Fangraphs they are currently rolling out ZiPS projections one organization at a time, and have covered six teams so far (Mets, White Sox, and the entire N.L. West, save for Frisco). Here’s a list of all the starting pitchers projected to have an ERA+ between 102 and 110:

Robbie Ray, Dustin May, Ross Stripling, Marcus Stroman, Chris Paddack, Kenta Maeda, and young phenom Luis Patino. Conveniently, those seven pitchers actually average a 106, same as Kim. That’s a peer group and a half, really very very nice. (For instance, Marcus Stroman is the Mets’ clear #3 starter, and they’re supposed to have one of the top 4 or 5 rotations in the sport.) And moreover, KK is forecast to be almost exactly as good in 2021 as well.

I would rank him 4th in the system behind just Nolan Gorman, Dylan Carlson, and Ivan Herrera. He likely won’t give you as many wins above replacement in two years as I expect (or at least hope) to get from Knizner or Rondon or Arozarena in six years of team control — but given his recent consistent excellence, Kim has more certainty I think than any of them and could perhaps provide more wins above average in two years than they do in five or six seasons.

[Bob Reed]

“If you steal money from a bank it’s still stealing whether you do it at gunpoint or embezzle it.”

And the man who steals $1,000 from a bank at gunpoint will very likely get a rougher sentence than the man who steals $1,000,000 via embezzling. It is understood by one and all that those two activities are not morally or ethically or legally equivalent.

Laws are what they are, and the Astros obviously knew exactly what they were doing, and moreover were warned loudly & clearly. They not only violated explicit MLB rules, but gave the commissioner the middle finger while doing so.

[Bob Reed]

I hear you, Minuteman. We’re trespassers in the postmodern age. Sometimes I feel like I’m Fred Flintstone transplanted to The Jetsons.

But yeah, Apple Watches. Go figure.

[Bob Reed]

Here’s the thing about the Astros.

Late in the 2017 season the Red Sox were busted for using Apple brand watches to steal signs.
Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/sports/baseball/boston-red-sox-stealing-signs-yankees.html

So in mid-September of 2017, the Commissioner fined the Red Sox an undisclosed amount and issued a strong and quite explicit warning to all 30 clubs. This warning included the following:

“…all 30 clubs have been notified that future violations of this type will be subject to more serious sanctions, including the possible loss of draft picks.”

Full statement here: https://www.mlb.com/press-release/commissioner-s-statement-regarding-red-sox-yankees-violations-254435818

So the Astros, in the 2017 postseason, used illegal means to steal signs less than three weeks after being quite expressly warned by Rob Manfred in the strongest terms NOT to do so.

Who do they think they are, Bill Belichick?

(Apologies to all, if these observations/links just rehash earlier statements in the thread.)

[Bob Reed]

I like it a lot.

Yes, Keuchel & Ryu will both probably be better going forward. But there’s no telling how high you’d have to bid for those two, and more importantly whether they even want to pitch under the Arch. (For instance, we know now that Madison Bumgarner was practically pre-ordained to wind up with Arizona, if they wanted him. And of course they did, making less than half the dough per year of Strasburg and Cole.) And to bid and wait and lose out on those guys, those Scott Boras clients, could leave the Cards scrambling as February rolls around.

Better to get someone now — and on a modest Classic Cardinal Deal that leaves the Redbird manager with the flexibility to use the Korean southpaw strictly according to how he performs rather than be unduly influenced by how massive the $$ commitment.

————————–

And heck, maybe the Birds got a diamond in the rough. Recall that just 24 months ago the top two MLB free agents per MLB.com were Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Not the top pitchers, or top righty pitchers, but the top free agents, period. And Miles Mikolas was a nobody, a low-hanging MLB reject trying to reclaim an MLB career, the #50 free agent at MLB Trade Rumors that offseason. And what’s happened in the two seasons since?

Darvish 219 IP and a 4.16 ERA
Arrieta 308 IP and a 4.26 ERA
Mikolas 385 IP and a 3.46 ERA

In case anyone’s curious, two years ago the other top free agent starting pitchers, per MLBTR, in descending order, were Masahiro Tanaka (335 IP, 4.14), Lance Lynn (358, 4.20), Alex Cobb (165, 5.36), and Mike Minor — the one guy who’s been roughly the Lizard King’s equal, with a 3.84 ERA over 365 innings.

If the Birds are very fortunate, and everyone is healthy & effective in Spring Training, and Carlos Martinez is ready and rarin’ to return to the rotation, then Kim can be a sort of lefty Poncedeleon, a security blanket swingman from the left side. That’d be okay. But something tells me they’ll get quite a bit more than that from him.

[Bob Reed]

I like the idea, guys. The one thing the Cards have gotten really right in free agency over the past few years is their evaluations of Far East talent.

Over the past two seasons, you know how many MLB starters have thrown as many innings as Lizard King Miles Mikolas, with as low an ERA? Here’s the entire list:

Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Jacob DeGrom, Zack Greinke, Aaron Nola, Patrick Corbin, and Trevor Bauer. Since arriving in St. Louis, Mikolas has thrown more innings, and posted a lower ERA, than Strasburg, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Bumgarner, and Hamels. Nice group to be better than.

And for the two years that Final Boss Seunghwan Oh pitched out of the Redbird bullpen, here’s the list of all MLB relievers who posted a lower ERA with as many innings pitched: Brad Brach, Addison Reed, Chris Devenski, Brad Hand, and Hector Neris. That’s it. Five relievers across all of baseball.

Over those same two seasons, here are some bullpenners who threw fewer innings than Final Boss, with a worse ERA: Dellin Betances, Roberto Osuna, Edwin Diaz, Ken Giles, Jeremy Jeffress, and Kelvin Herrera.

————————–

If the Cardinals like Kim, then I like Kim. Only thing I don’t like? He lacks a cool nickname.

[Bob Reed]

Cool Arenado stats:
career bases empty .827 OPS
career men on base .983
career with RISP 1.024

Over the past decade, MLB-wide (a sample size of well over a million trips to the plate) batterb as a whole have hit slightly better with men on base than with the bases empty. About 35 points of OPS better, but that’s all. Arenado appears to be the rare “RBI guy” who actually exists.

Uncool Arenado stats:
career home .995 OPS
career road .799

And Busch Stadium III is not kind to righty power hitters — Goldschmidt and Ozuna being recent glaring examples, along with Paul DeJong and Harry Bader, who have combined to homer 69 times on the road and just 32 times at home.

But it’s all moot anyway, since Cardinal brass signed Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt both to multi-year extensions before the 2019 season. Ahh, if only no Carpenter extension. Then they could just trade Dylan Carlson plus a sweetener or two, and Nolan Arenado could hold down third base for the next half a decade. And likely be as disappointing as Goldy and Ozuna turned out to be.

As it stands now, the trade would need to be Dylan Carlson plus Nolan Gorman plus Matt Carpenter. And I don’t think I’d do that if I were the Birds. Maybe, but I don’t think so. Perhaps if the Cards also included the salary and questionable shoulder of Carlos Martinez, and received Jon Gray. Man that would be some blockbuster, yes?

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