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Ascanio’s initial chances at Triple-A are not ideal, just because of the bodies ahead of him. But things can and do change during the season.
“I don’t understand how one team can have depth in one category and be weak in another.”
Here’s one for you, muddy. Theo Epstein is closing in on two decades as a GM, and he’s developed one starting pitcher from scratch, Clay Buccholz, who made his pro debut some 14 years ago.
And yet, Epstein will quite rightly waltz into the Hall Of Fame one day, because he’s discovered & developed position players as well as any GM of his era. Probably better than any others, in fact.
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Over the long-ish haul I don’t think there’s much luck involved in these matters at all. Dozens and dozens of individuals, thousands upon thousands of man hours every year. I think the luck largely if not entirely washes out over any three or four year period. I think the boring truth is that certain organizations are just better at some things than other things — but of course that’s still a somewhat fluid situation, as the scouts and analysts employed by each organization is ever-shifting.
It’s a darn good thing that Theo’s minions didn’t get better at developing pitchers when they moved from Boston to Chicago with him. That was my big concern, when the Cubs hired him. But his Red Sox record has proved true, and thus he’s in the same boat now that he was near the very end of his Carmines tenure. Numerous bloated contracts, and nary a pitcher in the pipeline. The Fat Lady is warming up.
Cardinals Middle-infield draftees in the top 5 rounds:
2016 – Perez 21yo (low-A PEO) SS – 1st round
2017 – Robertson 25 (AA SPG) SS – 4th round
…..- Kirtley 23 2B(AA SPG) – 5th round
2018 – Gil 19 SS(ROOK) JC – 3rd round
…..- Dunn 23 2B(adv-A) – 5th round
2019 – none>>>>>>>>>Redmond 2B was the first Mid-IF taken… in Card’s 28th round.Gil is still a work in progress. The others have a lot more to prove to reach STL. It could happen.
BA has updated their organizational rankings at mid-season, post-draft. The Cardinals did not change as no. 13.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-mlb-organization-talent-rankings/
A new top 10.
1. Carlson
2. Liberatore
3. Gorman
4. Herrera
5. Thompson
6. Walker
7. Kim
8. Knizner
9. Thomas
10. OviedoSeems odd to include Kwang-hyun Kim as a prospect. Also, I thought Lane Thomas had graduated, with them taking up two spots. Perhaps as a result, only Walker from the 2020 draft class is ranked.
Those who are BA members can participate in a 2 pm ET chat today with the author of these rankings, JJ Cooper.
The @Cardinals have consistently had one of the top systems in the NL Central.
Let's meet their 2021 prospects.
Brand new Top 10 dropped today, including a fresh scouting report on Dylan Carlson, one of baseball's best prospects.
Full list: https://t.co/tItw5NshdA pic.twitter.com/cHxyEyFE83
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) December 18, 2020
Some interesting stuff there, especially the projected 2024 lineup. Having a new 1b would be intriguing, and it would still be a young lineup with only two players over 30 (meaning 31+).
I didn’t include this initially but since Goold threw it out there…
Interesting choices here for #stlcards 2024 lineup, as selected by @jjcoop36 and @BaseballAmerica… https://t.co/EJ9Zqh6OXr pic.twitter.com/JrN1eVQaFm
— Derrick S. Goold (@dgoold) December 18, 2020
I’d be willing to bet a whole pile of money that won’t be the starting OF in 2024.
Candidates –
FA addition
Addition thru trade
Thomas
Williams
Montero
Torres
Nunez
Fletcher
Burleson
Romeri
Jones IVNo Carlson, bccran? Seems like an oversight. Don’t forget that Mo just called Bader a defensive anchor of the OF. If he can produce offensively like he did this year (113 wRC+), he will have a spot somewhere.
Carlson is a given, 25. The other two spots are up for grabs after Fowler leaves. Those are the candidates I listed.
I know what Mo said about Bader, but there are other guys coming up who cover a lot of territory too. Fletcher for one.
IMO we need 3 solid bats in the OF. They don’t have to be All Star caliber. Just good solid all around players. With some 20+ home run power at the corners without a high K rate.
Here’s an interesting question. Looking up and down the system, who’s in the queue at 2B (who wouldn’t be moved over from SS)? A pure second baseman.
IMO we need 3 solid bats in the OF. They don’t have to be All Star caliber. Just good solid all around players. With some 20+ home run power at the corners without a high K rate.
I think we are in need of an extra All Star caliber player or two to be a real contender. That’s what we hope that Gorman and Carlson can be and maybe Winn or Fletcher or Torres a few years down the road. Still, there will be those types on the market this coming year and the Cards will have a chance to buy them with just money and not money + prospects like the Goldy or Ozuna deals. It sounds good to me. How many teams win championships with one or two All Stars on the roster? I’d think most have 3, 4 or more.
That 2024 payroll would be tiny. Goldy, FLaherty, DeJong plus a bunch or arbitration or league minimum players.
That 2024 payroll would be tiny. Goldy, FLaherty, DeJong plus a bunch or arbitration or league minimum players.
We’d have to sign Flaherty to make it happen so maybe he’d demand a respectfull salary of $100M per year.
I would read zero into that projected 2024 roster. BA always assumes no new players from the outside, which on one hand, is understandable. On the other, it makes the result borderline useless in terms of having any predictive value.
I actually think we have the possibility of having 3-4 All Star players fairly soon with Goldy, PDJ, Carlson, and Gorman.
In Baseball America's new national top 100 prospect rankings for 2021, #STLCards OF Dylan Carlson is no. 9, LHP Matthew Liberatore in no. 46 and 3B Nolan Gorman is no. 54.
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 18, 2021
I wonder what it’ll take for Ivan Herrera to break into the rankings this year? He’s not been in any top 10s for his position yet, despite being very young with very solid numbers at all his stops. Not that it matters a ton as what he eventually becomes is what matters, but I think he should be top 100 already and primed for more with a big 2021.
Not all that surprising to me that there is not a lot of movement since almost no one played last year. Plus there were probably more 2020 draft picks coming on than guys graduating to MLB.
I suppose it’s more of a gripe with the way that Cardinals players often seem to get undervalued. Herrera only put up a 155 and 160 wRC+ in his first taste of pro ball. Then, playing half of his first stint at Peoria at age 18 (turned 19 in June), he had a 136 wRC+ there. Advancing to Palm Beach, he was able to hold his own (102 wRC+). He played well in a short stint in the Arizona Fall League with an .821 OPS. It’s said he had a max exit velocity over 109 mph on one of his swings. He did this while playing the toughest position in the game. Just seems like if a prospect for the Yankees or Rays or Padres did that, they’d be well inside the top 50. Herrera is 101st in Fangraphs and that’s as high as I can find him.
No Cardinals in BA’s 101 to 110 group…
You didn’t hear much about Elehuris Montero during the 2019 season because of his injury, and then there wasn’t much said about him, or any other prospects, during the 2020 season. But at the beginning of this thread (i.e January, 2019) there are some enticing posts about Elehuris Montero. Here they are:
Here is BA’s new Cardinals top 10. (for 2019)
1. Reyes
2. O’Neill
3. Hudson
4. Gorman
5. Montero
6. Cabrera (some of you folks are sleeping on him!)
7. Thomas
8. Knizner
9. Nunez
10. CarlsonBest Infield Arm: Elehuris Monttero (per Baseball America)
Low-A Peoria, which made a surprise run to the Midwest League Championship, featured two star-studded hitting prospects.
The first is Midwest League Most Valuable Player Elehuris Montero (No. 9 prospect), who became the first Chief to be named MWL MVP since Albert Pujols in 2000. The Dominican stood out with his “special” hand-eye coordination, showing plus raw power with the potential to develop into an all-fields power hitter down the road. He has a chance to be a plus hitter with plus power, but he may have to slide over to first base as he is a fringe defender at the hot corner.
Just below Memphis, the Cardinals Springfield and Palm Beach affiliates had no representation at Double-A and High-A, respectively.
Although Low-A Peoria, which made a surprise run to the Midwest League Championship, featured one name who carried the club until his promotion to Palm Beach on August 7.
Elehuris Montero was selected by BA as the top third baseman at Low-A this season. The now 20-year old won the MWL batting title (.322 average) and finished with highest OPS (.910) among qualified hitters. He also collected 46 extra-base hits and drove in 69 runs, becoming the first Chief to be named the MWL MVP since Albert Pujols in 2000.
MLB Pipeline
@MLBPipeline
19-year-old #STLCards prospect Elehuris Montero, the 2018 Midwest League MVP, ranked 3rd among all top prospects last year with 29.8% of his line drives and fly balls going for hits. @GoldenSombrero looks at the Top 10: https://atmlb.com/2QjWe2z\BA ranks the #stlcards as the no. 12 farm system. This is their seventh consecutive year ranked between no. 10 and no. 15. In other words, always in the top half, but not the top third. https://t.co/jpmPRcRbv7
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 10, 2021
I have read that the Cards are consistently near the top of the rankings in WAR by under 25 y.o. players. It would seem to jive with the assertion that prospect gurus underrate Cardinals prospects. Or perhaps the Cards really are that good at developing averageish MLB players that inflate their stats in those categories, while missing on the big stars that the gurus seem to dream on.
I will say that I like the way the system is shaped now. There are some safe bets who still have a ceiling to dream on (Carlson, Libby), some toolsy guys with a high ceiling (Gorman, Thompson, Walker), all around talents who stand a good shot to make MLB in some way (Herrera, Oviedo) and some high end talents who could be superstars if things work out (Winn, Fletcher, Torres). Then you throw in the usual Cardinals averageish guys like Rondon, Whitley, Fernandez, etc and I think there is a lot to like. All that’s missing is the nearly ready MI/CF type talent that prospect raters go gaga for. If Winn and Fletcher shine this year we could see them be those guys and the system really skyrocket.
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