Fangraphs Cardinals Top 34 Prospects

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  • #119700
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    1 Dylan Carlson
    2 Nolan Gorman
    3 Matthew Liberatore
    4 Ivan Herrera
    5 Zach Thompson
    6 Andrew Knizner
    7 Genesis Cabrera
    8 Lane Thomas
    9 Jhon Torres
    10 Trejyn Fletcher
    11 Junior Fernandez
    12 Johan Oviedo
    13 Edmundo Sosa
    14 Elehuris Montero
    15 Kodi Whitley
    16 Tony Locey
    17 Luken Baker
    18 Jake Woodford
    19 Juan Yeez
    20 Ramon Urias
    21 Mateo Gil
    22 Roel Ramirez
    23 Malcom Nunez
    24 Seth Elledge
    25 Patrick Romeri
    26 Andre Pallante
    27 Andanson Cruz
    28 Steven Gingery
    29 Jesus Cruz
    30 Justin Williams
    31 Griffin Roberts
    32 Connor Jones
    33 Edgardo Rodriguez
    34 Rodard Avelino

    They included notes on others who didn’t make the Top 34. Everything can be read here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-34-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/

    #119703
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    I like Fangraphs and it’s a quality website with any knowledgeable writers, but these rankings once you get out of the Top 10 are all over the place.

    Julio Rodriguez, Angel Rondon, Alvaro Seijas aren’t even in the Top 34 when us at TCN included them. Heck the voters at CardsTalk also included them as did ProspectsLive. There are some oddities as well.

    #119704
    Avatarbccran
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    Justin Williams #30?

    #119705
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I like Fangraphs and it’s a quality website with any knowledgeable writers, but these rankings once you get out of the Top 10 are all over the place.

    You’re not kidding. Throw in that they supposedly were gonna make Diowill Burgos our #11…

    #119708
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    They have certainly jumped off of the Montero band wagon.

    #119709
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Three interesting tidbits from the article, for me.

    On Dylan Carlson:

    The TrackMan data we sourced also indicates that his 2019 line is a bit of a caricature. His average exit velo (about 88 mph) and rate of balls in play at 95 mph or higher (about 34%) are both right around the big league average, rather than exceptional.

    On Ivan Herrera:

    When we began sourcing data on the Cardinals system, we weren’t aware of a max exit velocity for a teenager in excess of 109 mph (Kristian Robinson, Marco Luciano, Luis Toribio) — until we learned of Herrera’s.

    On Steven Gingery:

    Gingery had Tommy John in March of 2018 before he was drafted, and finally took a pro mound in late-July of last year. He was 87-91, up to 92 in his lone outing before he blew out again and required a second TJ.

    Was it known that Gingery had a second TJ?

    #119710
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    Not a well edited list if nothing else. They have a couple of guys with 2019 ETA’s who didnt play in the majors last year. They list Gingrey with a 2020 ETA even though he has only pitched a couple of minor league innings in his career and they say he had a second TJ. I would also question the 2023 ETA of Herrera as being overly pessimistic.

    #119711
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    They have certainly jumped off of the Montero band wagon.

    Which is weird, cause the write-up is mostly positive about how we should ignore his lost 2020 and they were impressed with his AFL body and expect him to stay at 3rd.

    #119713
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    I would guess a broken hamate bone really cut into Montero’s exit velo. In fact, being league avg should be seen as encouraging.

    #119714
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    I was surprised to see Edgardo Rodriguez ranked. MO said in his Sunday morning interview that Edgardo Rodriguez is a player they wanted for his offense.

    #119715
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    Edgardo Rodriguez is a guy who I will be surprised if he sticks at catcher. I’ve seen video of him and he’s a really really big boy.

    As for Gingery I don’t recall seeing anything about a second TJ surgery until the Fangrapsh article. With a second TJ surgery Gingery probably won’t pitch again until 2021, which means he would have pitched only 3 innings in four years.

    #119716
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    Several things don’t jive with me on the reports.

    1) Seijas hitting 97 mph? I watched him 2 or 3 times, and he was 90-91, maybe 93 a time or 2.

    2) Rondon being an arm strength guy only? He seems more of a pitcher than a thrower, and is my top starting prospect because he misses so many bats, and impressed at Springfield;\

    3) Yepez, Gil, and Ramirez seem ranked too high, and Williams too low among others.

    #119718
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    Which is weird, cause the write-up is mostly positive about how we should ignore his lost 2020 and they were impressed with his AFL body and expect him to stay at 3rd.

    They docked him for being too swing happy. Only averaged 2.5 pitches per plate appearance.

    #119721
    AvatarBob Reed
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    Longenhagen publicly admitted a couple of years ago that he had fewer contacts within the St. Louis organization than any other team in the majors. And it shows.

    There is so much awfulness of logic and outright misinformation within their Redbird rankings as to render them more or less useless. (The Diowill Burgos at #11 has to be a gag, though. Something to try and get under the skin of Cardinal fans — for whom Longenhagen has expressed his contempt in the past.)

    McDaniel and Longenhagen are terrible. But hey, don’t take my word. Just go back and check their lists from the past couple of years and the weak inaccurate grades they gave DeJong & Bader & Flaherty & Hudson & Hicks & Edman & Carson Kelly & Zac Gallen & Sandy Alcantara & Luke Weaver & on and on. They’ve broken new ground with Angel Rondon, though. It’s as if they literally do not know who he is, his age, or where and how well he’s pitched over his career.

    #122210
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    So Fangraphs released their Top 100 prospects today and I have no idea how they configure their rankings. It makes zero sense to me (and even more so they were still going to name Diowil Burgos our #11 prospect). Anyways, here are the Cardinals on the list:

    3B Nolan Gorman (No. 38)
    OF Dylan Carlson (No. 39)
    LHP Matthew Liberatore (No. 94)

    C Ivan Herrera slots in at No. 105

    The same guy who compiles the Top 100 also compiles each teams’ list. So how does he put Carlson as the Cards #1 prospect but then names Gorman higher in the Top 100? What am I missing?

    #122216
    AvatarBob Reed
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    I can’t solve that riddle, Black Hills.
    But here’s a neat fact: according to Fangraphs the player who one month ago was the 14th-best prospect for the Cardinals, is now the #107 prospect in all the minors! Here’s the link where Randy Arozarena is the #14 for StL: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-stats?pos=&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32,33&stats=bat&qual=0&type=0&team=&season=2018&seasonEnd=2019&draft=2019updated&players=&boardView=0&q=&org=stl&filter=&sort=5,-1

    And here he is, just today, at #107: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/

    So, with Liberatore replacing Arozarena in the Redbird farm system, the Cards still have 14 of the top 107 prospects. Well, only 13, since Ramon Urias is now a Baltimore Oriole. But still, 13 of the top 107 prospects! Must be a record.

    #122221
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    Holy cow, Bob, I didn’t see that when I looked at it.

    #122243
    AvatarChristopher Jeske
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    I’m not here to defend the fangraphs rankings but I do think there is a little confusion here.

    BlackHillsCard said: The same guy who compiles the Top 100 also compiles each teams’ list. So how does he put Carlson as the Cards #1 prospect but then names Gorman higher in the Top 100? What am I missing?

    Fangraphs/Longenhagen has consistently ranked Gorman higher than Carlson including on the list that was released January 15th: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-34-prospects-st-louis-cardinals/

    Bob Reed said: But here’s a neat fact: according to Fangraphs the player who one month ago was the 14th-best prospect for the Cardinals, is now the #107 prospect in all the minors!

    The link you provided to THE BOARD is for their 2019 update, which I believe was last updated before the MiLB season concluded last year. (It was not “updated” as of a month ago). I vaguely remember shortly after the trade they posted on twitter that Arozarena would receive either a 55 or 50 FV this year.

    However, your point still remains and I definitely agree. It is a massive jump to go from a late season update #14 in the system to a top 100 overall the following year. For comparison, Ivan Herrera was #32 STL pre 2019 season, #6 STL updated 2019 season, and #4 STL / #105 overall pre 2020 season. It makes more sense to me for the big jump to be reflected in the in season update list if he is playing well.

    Case in point: I don’t understand why Herrera got a big in season ranking boost last year and Arozarena didn’t (#19 to #14). Maybe it is because Herrera made the big jump from GCL to Midwest League. Or maybe it has something to do with Fangraphs incorporating average and max exit velos as part of their 2020 evaluation? (I don’t think they used exit velos in last year’s rankings). Arozarena’s average exit velo was 90 mph and max was 109 mph.

    #122245
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    After the first 10 or 12, it looks like they drew names out of a hat. Easily the worst, or least scouted.

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