Nolan Arenado trade thread

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  • #119344
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    gscottar said:

    I see nothing wrong with letting fans have some fun once in awhile and ponder what could be. Not all fans like talking prospects 24/7/365 like we do here.

    Of course. That should be obvious. Folks are always welcome to post. I just don’t always see the situation the same way, but I almost always try to share my logic vs. one sentence rebuttals. Smart, but civil disagreement goes with the territory, too.

    #119345
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Mo & his staff play everything very close to the vest, my point in that is that if anything big is going to happen, it will likely be something that we first get wind of by it popping up on our phone or on here after it’s already happened.

    We had all speculated on moving outfielders for something (especially JMart to the AL), but I don’t remember TB ever being mentioned on here or anywhere as a rumor?

    Other than Arenado, Lindor or Betts, are there any other major upgrades out there? Trey Mancini on the Orioles would be an upgrade, but why wouldn’t they just sign Castellanos or Ozuna vs giving up prospects?

    #119347
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    I like the direction the FO has gone so far this offseason. By moving Jose M. we have jettisoned our worst defender. We also have the opportunity to walk away from Ozuna, the wall climber. Unfortunately, the time to sell high on Carpenter has passed and we even compounded that situation with an extension. But, two of three of the worst defenders can be gone (please!). That could be a huge accomplishment for our pitching staff.

    “Are there any other upgrades out there?”

    Starling Marte in LF improves the D in LF big time. He could also bat cleanup. His 2/24mil remaining is very reasonable and we retain Ozuna’s pick if he signs before the draft. That pick can be subtracted from the Marte trade package cost, by letting Ozuna walk, and it’s just a 2yr commitment.

    Marte is not Arenado, Lindor or Betts; but he’s an upgrade over Castellanos or Ozuna, for me.

    #119349
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    I’m with you on Marte, and I originally completely left him out of my comment due to the NL Central issue, but I doubt the Pirates see that as a big issue and don’t plan to be in the hunt. If the Cards were sending good young talent to Pittsburg, that would be rough watching someone have a breakout over the 6 years of control they would have.

    What kind of package would Marte cost? FWIW, I don’t see them adding an OF unless Fowler can be moved…

    #119351
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Agree the Bucs just want the best return and are headed for the cellar. Stl would have to endure the players they sent to Pit until they got expensive, and then they too get traded away. I have suggested to start with a O’Neill / Gant offer and let the GM’s equal it out. 6yrs of O’neill would be 4yrs facing him if he blossomed out to a star, then he gets dealt ($). Gant has 3yrs club control remaining.

    #119354
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    That’s a good start, and I’m all for moving Gant, but I’d have to believe they would want more.

    #119380
    Avatargscottar
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    Marte is a good suggestion but I suspect the Pirates would try to gouge us since it is intra-division. Castellanos and Ozuna just cost money.

    #119389
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Not to be overbearing, but this thread is about Arenado. Let’s use the Trade Ideas thread for other ideas for other players. That is exactly why we have that thread. Thanks.

    #119401
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    The fact D Goold had to issue a rebuttal about Marp’s contract status today should tell us a lot about the speculative reports that have been coming out about the Cardinals trading for Arenado.

    #119403
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    BHC, please explain what this rebuttal is. Thanks. (I don’t have the time and energy to fight the popup ads and go through 10 pages of chat at the P-D.)

    #119421
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    Well he also tweeted about it but there were articles (specifically the Jon Morosi article) that said Matt Carpenter’s NTC didn’t take effect until Opening Day. *LOL*

    #119422
    AvatarBob Reed
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    I hadn’t given this much thought before, but the Cards could be a natural fit with the Rockies, because Colorado’s starting catcher Tony Wolters (a 27-year-old with 2.3 career WAR) slugged .329 in 2019, his backup was 36 years old, and their farm system is utterly backstop-bereft.

    So Knizner to Colorado makes perfect sense as part of a swap. Yadi signs his one or two-year extension and Ivan Herrera becomes the next “catcher of the future.” Knizner plus an outfielder not named Bader, plus Matt Carpenter with a little salary relief included (say $3-5M per year), plus a modest but not inconsequential sweetener from the minor league pitching ranks like Kodi Whitley or Genesis Cabrera or Johan Oviedo, et Voila!

    #119424
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    BHC, thank you for sharing that. To be honest, I did not know there was still confusion about Carpenter’s no-trade protection. Goold explained it as I understood it. (I did not see Morosi’s note to the contrary.)

    Contracts end at the end of the season. That is when players become free agents. What I had been told is that Carpenter’s old contract ended at the end of last season and his new one took over at that time.

    I am surprised Morosi did not know that – or maybe he thinks Carpenter’s contract had special terms or something. But logically, if anything, the NTC would start SOONER, not later, if they were negotiating anything special…

    Consider the alternative – Mo to Carpenter’s agent last spring.

    Mo: “OK, we will give you no-trade, but you give us some extra time – until next spring – for it to take effect so we have more time to try to trade him next winter.”

    I should add that I have no inside info, but this is another time where common sense leads to the right answer.

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    #119425
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    Brian, I’m confused with your mentioning of Passan. Did Passan write a report that contradicted Derrick’s? I know Morosi’s article did and I actually found his article to be nothing more than clickbait trash.

    I too didn’t know there was confusion about Marp’s contract. The extension clearly went into effect at the end of the season. And you’d have a terrible agent to negotiate a NTC that only started on opening day. What’s the point of having the NTC if there’s a gap when it takes effect?

    #119426
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    My mistake. Mixed up Passan and Morosi. I will correct my post.

    Twitter comes up with some interesting stuff.

    #119429
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    If the Cards were interested in adding a true “star player”, especially at 3B, why were they not once connected to Rendon? The money is basically even, so….

    Is Arenado > Rendon + package to Colorado – pick for signing Rendon? Was Rendon 100% against being a Cardinal?
    Is Donaldson 100% against the Cards? Why have they not once been mentioned as a potential suitor?
    Is Carp interested in going to COL? The whole thing just doesn’t seem to add up in my lil brain….

    #119431
    AvatarBob Reed
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    I suspect that the answer, ChiTown, is that if the Cards went after a free agent, even if they got him, then they’d be over a barrel with a serious surplus of extremely expensive corner infielders. No leverage whatsoever, while trying to trade away Carpenter (or Goldy, theoretically).

    What did you think of my trade idea?

    Knizner plus an outfielder not named Bader, plus Matt Carpenter with a little salary relief included (say $3-5M per year), plus a modest but not inconsequential sweetener from the minor league pitching ranks like Kodi Whitley or Genesis Cabrera or Johan Oviedo.

    #119432
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Bob, you will not like this, but Bader would be perfect at Coors…. they likely know that too. We would still see him almost every night on Sports Center Top 10.

    If I could tweak it a bit for Carpenter, Bader, Woodford, Oviedo and Gant, that would probably gain their undivided attention. Cards can’t do it without Carpenter going, and Rockies might pull the trigger for Bader being included.

    The opt out could end up being the biggest hurdle though, it’s a lose lose for the acquiring team. If he does great, then he’s gone, he gets hurt or declines, he stays for $35M a year…..

    #119434
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    To the leverage lost point… Adding another third baseman wouldn’t help, unless it was needed in a game of chicken to get Carpenter to waive his NTC. But, honestly I question whether the Cardinals would have much of any leverage trying to move Carpenter no matter what else might be happening with the roster around him. His potential value to Team B, whoever that is, is what it is, and is far more based on expectation of what he would deliver in results to Team B.

    I will repeat what I have asked before. Why do we think the Rockies would want Carpenter (or Fowler, if you please)? (I get why it is good for the Cardinals, so no need to explain that.) In the vernacular of this discussion, the Rockies have all the leverage.

    #119438
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Brian, I don’t think they would have any interest in Carp or Fowler, which is why I originally assumed the whole narrative was fabricated and just a click chaser. Then came Mo’s 90-95% comments, which to me means “its been discussed”.

    I haven’t read or seen it mentioned anywhere, but the two teams might match up a lot better on another one of their players…. a LHH OFer perhaps, one with a healthy beard.

    #119440
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    I think it will take more than what had been thrown out as possibilities to get Arenado. The Rod need a top prospect. I am sure Carlson’s name had been bantered around. They would likely take Cabrera, and maybe take on Carpenter with salary relief. Minimum compensation would seem to be O’Neill or Bader, Carp plus salary, Woodford and Cabrera as I am sure St Louis won’t part ways with Carlson.

    I am attending a Rockies fan fest in a couple of weeks, so maybe I can get some inside scoop if nothing is settled by then. 😀

    #119441
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    “Rox” that is – iPhone spell check.

    #119444
    AvatarLoganAlpha30X7
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    I just hope that whichever way it goes that it doesn’t get drawn out and take weeks to be resolved, though the opt out thing in his contract has me worried about even trading for him, now if that could be done away with…

    #119445
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    CFICT said:

    Then came Mo’s 90-95% comments, which to me means “its been discussed”.

    OK, but what is “its”?

    A trade? Sure. A trade that includes Carpenter and/or Fowler? I bet the Cards brought it up, but if I am the Rockies, I would quickly move the discussion to other players.

    #119454
    AvatarBob Reed
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    “I will repeat what I have asked before. Why do we think the Rockies would want Carpenter (or Fowler, if you please)? (I get why it is good for the Cardinals, so no need to explain that.) In the vernacular of this discussion, the Rockies have all the leverage.”

    Just spitballing here. If the Rockies believe Carpenter will bounce back to a roughly 3 WAR player in 2020 and 2-2.5 WAR in 2021, and the Cards are willing to eat some of his contract, then there would be some appeal there. Trading Arenado straight up for prospects means the Rockies have an immediate dropoff of 5-6 wins from the hot corner. With Carpenter in the deal the dropoff might be far less precipitous.

    As for leverage, I can’t speak to how motivated the Rockies are. But if Colorado wants very much to divorce itself from a nearly quarter billion dollar commitment, while making their team stronger beginning in 2021 or 2022 than they would be by simply hanging on to Arenado and doing nothing, then Arenado for Carp + Knizner + O’Neill + a pitching prospect might very well get the job done. And it works for the Cards, as they continue to trade from depth — in this case both outfield and catcher.

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