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I have no idea why the Rox signed Arenado only to trade him before the contract kicks in.
I would have to guess that it has something to do with the fact they went 91-72 in 2018 and 71-91 in 2019…Then Arenado came out and said it feels like they are a rebuilding club.
To me this is when the whole ballgame started. When Arenado made those comments bells and alarms went off in every front office across the league and the sharks started smelling blood. This is why I don’t think the Rockies have ALL of the leverage. True, they don’t HAVE to trade him but it is now known by everyone that Arenado is not thrilled with what is going on there therefore the chances of him opting to stay in Colorado after 2021 are much lower than they were when he signed the deal. The Rockies are probably thinking it is wise to see what kind of package they can get now, although they could also wait until the July deadline.
“This is something nobody expected,” Arenado told Nick Groke of The Athletic. “We didn’t expect it to be like this. But it is. There’s no running away from it. It is what it is.”
Arenado went on to say, “It feels like a rebuild.”
Article from 9-9-19
One dissatisfied player, especially a star, can harpoon an entire team for years. The size of the contract for Arenado reduces their leverage by a ton. Of course they could get a better deal by having other teams bid, they probably aren’t going to get a huge haul for him.
So if names have been discussed does that mean that Mo’s 90-95% comment just meant that people had the names wrong? It doesn’t mean that discussions haven’t been ongoing.
I believe teams tend to have better records when they have eight 2 WAR guys than one 8 WAR guy, a couple of 2 WAR guys and a couple of people with zero to negative WAR. Just compare the Angels to the Cardinals…
When you go after a 6-8 WAR guy is when you have a team filled with 2 WAR players and you are looking for an upgrade. And when you trade tha 6-8 WAR guy is when you have numerous holes to fill and you are budget constrained.
We’d have the same lineup, just subbing Arenado for Carpenter. Losing Hudson would sting, but you have to give up something to get something, and you’d have a hard time making a case that Hudson is more valuable than Arenado.
As for factoring in the salary, I’d rather spend that money on Arenado now instead of leaving Mo to his own devices to give it to the next Fowler and Carpenter.
As for factoring in the salary, I’d rather spend that money on Arenado now instead of leaving Mo to his own devices to give it to the next Fowler and Carpenter.
hahahaha Good point!
Maybe it’s Hudson, Gorman, and MCarp/Fowler? That seems like a pretty good deal for us if they get rid of the opt out clause.
Jeff Passan is having himself the best winter of any national or local baseball writter:
Quick Nolan Arenado update in yes-and-no form, per sources:
– Yes, the Rockies and Cardinals are talking.
– No, the talks haven't gone anywhere.
– No, the exchange of names has not been productive.
– Yes, it's still considered a long shot that Arenado is dealt in the short-term.— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 14, 2020
Sounds a lot higher than 5-10% to me…. sounds like they are both trying to draw their lines in the sand…and someone is going to have to give up more than what they want
I think the Cardinals have shown they want Arenado pretty clearly…and the Rox are trying to act like they dont HAVE to move him…which given how much they owe him and his unhappiness is not really accurate
Id guess the Cards are trying to include Fowler or Carp or to get money off he deal if the Rox are so interested in top prospects…
Still I think this gets done…Hudson backing out of the Winter caravan thing (says it’s a baby thing), Austin Dean acquired and on 40 man, i think could read as things are moving…
Hudson + Fowler (1/2 money) + Thompson + Knizner
for
Arenado and Wolters (i like Wolters)Sounds like a 5-10% chance that something happens.
Is that a reference to Mo’s 90-95% comment? If so, I think Mo said that 90-95% of the internet rumors were false. That could be interpreted many different ways.
90-95% chance that nothing is going on?
90-95% chance that yes something is going on but the names mentioned were wrong?
90-95% chance that yes something is going on but it doesn’t get across the finish line?He was appropriately vague enough.
Is that a reference to Mo’s 90-95% comment? If so, I think Mo said that 90-95% of the internet rumors were false. That could be interpreted many different ways.
90-95% chance that nothing is going on?
90-95% chance that yes something is going on but the names mentioned were wrong?
90-95% chance that yes something is going on but it doesn’t get across the finish line?He was appropriately vague enough.
Sure was, and I agree. None of us really know the exact reason that talks for these type of things break down. In the end, there’s a shot that the deal gets done but I wouldn’t call it a great one even with the bizarre Dean deal.
“Bob, I think you are close but it will take a little more than that.
I would say Carp+$8M/yr, O’Neill, Knizner, Oviedo and Cabrera.”I’d do that one, gscott. Provided Arenado is waiving the opt-out. I don’t like a 7-year commitment, but I strongly prefer it to just 2 years. Then pray he’ll age like Brooks Robinson or Adrian Beltre, not David Wright or Eric Chavez.
What I would not do, is include Dakota Hudson under any circumstances. Not if Colorado took Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler’s full contracts in the deal and shipped half the Rocky Mountains to St. Louis. Nada, no way. Hudson has had four straight years of elite pitching performance and laudable health. Jack & Dak should be a 1-2 rotation punch for the next half decade.
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As for the comparisons to the Stanton trade, well I don’t see the situations as equivalent. Similar, of course. But different, too. The Marlins were clearly desperate to separate themselves from that massive Stanton contract. The situation was a public organizational embarrassment, as the fish sought to gut their talent base — and of course Ozuna and Yelich were soon to follow. And Miami had very limited trade latitude, with Stanton dictating his destination of course.
This does not have quite the same vibe. Arenado does not have to be moved, and it does not have to be one of 3 or 4 teams. But maybe most importantly, Miami was in my opinion an even more directionless organization than Colorado. (Or plain dumber if you prefer. Look what little they got for Yelich. Ugh.)
The Stanton/Arenado cases are similar only in the most general way. The particulars feel substantially different to me. And again, we cannot expect to fleece the Rockies like the Yanks did the Marlins — assuming obviously that Stanton returns to being a star.
I would expect Carlos Martinez and salary to be involved. He doesn’t have a NTC, I suspect he’s wearing thin on Stl management and Colo’s rotation needs probably two established arms.
If we have to give up an established starter I would prefer it be CMart instead of Hudson, if for no other reason than salary relief. I agree with Bob in that Hudson should be off the table.
Hudson is a guy that would be missed if he left St Louis, but probably won’t care that well if he ends up in Colorado, IMO. If that makes sense.
It will be interesting to see if Atlanta gets involved in Arenado trade discussions now that Donaldson signed with Minnesota.
Not sure why we are talking about 6-8 WAR players. Arenado is 2 years removed from that level in bwar and getting older and he has never reached that level of fwar.
I am.not sure the Rox haven’t backed themselves into a corner where they almost have to trade Arenado. You sure dont want him back as a malcontent.
Arenado is not the malcontent type. He is a great guy and a warrior. He may come off a little rough because he is extremely competitive, plus he wants to play on a consistent winner.
But he won’t let that stop his joy in playing the game. If the two teams do pull off a deal and Carpenter goes to Denver and plays third base for them for a year or two, Rockies fans will think they are watching the local junior high team seeing Carpenter make one of those lollipop throws after watching the 95 MPH bullets Arenado unleashes.
I think this trade will happen because I believe the Rockies want to dump his salary ASAP. MO can put together a package that is reasonable without including Hudson, Carlson, or Liberatore. If the Rockies don’t like the package, I think we should go with what we have.
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