Baseball America Cardinals prospect rankings

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  • #119206
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Only one Cardinal is in BA’s top 20 prospects from the DSL. 2B Albert Inoa is no. 20, though in the write-up the author says that Diowill Burgos has more upside.

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-dominican-summer-league-top-20-prospects/

    #120399
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    New BA national top 100

    10. Carlson
    42. Liberatore
    55. Gorman

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-top-100-prospects/

    #120487
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #120490
    AvatarGameCard
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    MLB.com
    24. Carlson
    38. Gorman
    41. Liberatore

    #120498
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    GC, that is the old MLB Pipeline ranking. I will bump the MLB Pipeline thread with additional information.

    #120500
    AvatarGameCard
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    That is what their current web site says.

    #120504
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Yes, it does. What you may not understand is that the national rankers re-do their top 100s only a couple of times per year. The BA info above is brand new for 2020.

    The MLB Pipeline list you are looking at clearly says “2019”. Their new 2020 list is not out yet.

    #120734
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Among catching prospects, BA has Herrera #16 and Knizner #19. Only the top nine catchers are in their top 100 overall, so neither Cardinal is very close to the top 100.

    Not losing sight that the Cards have two among the national top 20 catchers.

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2020-mlb-prospect-position-rankings-catchers/

    #120834
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #121403
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Sooner, thank you for sharing the Handbook info. Will you please copy it from your new BA thread into this existing one? I can then delete the new thread. Always better to keep related info together for later reference. Thank you!

    (I just learned the forum software has a new bug which is keeping me from merging threads. So I have a new work item.)

    #122259
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #122268
    Avatarmudville
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    The Rays and the Dodgers are always well represented on these lists. the Cardinals are not.

    #122269
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    I guess it depends on how you define “always”. This is the first time the Dodgers are in BA’s top five systems in the last three years. Before that, they often were.

    On the other hand, the Rays have been in the top five in each of the last three years, but not before that in recent years. Then again, what good does ranking well in prospects do if you can’t translate it into MLB success eventually?

    The Cards haven’t been among BA’s top five systems since 2013.

    #122273
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    #13? With no pitching prospects, no infield prospects, and mediocre outfield prospects. Amazing!

    #122277
    AvatarBob Reed
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    “On the other hand, the Rays have been in the top five in each of the last three years, but not before that in recent years. Then again, what good does ranking well in prospects do if you can’t translate it into MLB success eventually? The Cards haven’t been among BA’s top five systems since 2013.”

    Well said, Brian. It’s all about the majors and how those prospects perform there.
    And considering the Cardinals haven’t been in the BA top 5 since 2013, I’d say their “non-elite” farmhand collections have acquitted themselves rather marvelously at the MLB level. Certainly during their rookie campaigns, at least.

    Here are MLB’s top organizations in rookie WAR over the past five years:
    1) Dodgers 40.2 WAR (That’s Fangraphs WAR.)
    2) Cardinals 36.1
    3) Devil Rays 31.5
    4) Yankees 28.3
    5) Phillies 24.4

    Breaking it down further, the Birds were 2nd in position player WAR behind only LA, and 3rd in pitching behind just Tampa and (surprise!) Milwaukee — the Cards were the only franchise to rank in the top 4 in both bats and arms. Moreover, they would likely have ranked 1st in pitcher WAR had I used Baseball-Reference values instead, as they easily topped MLB rookies in ERA over the last half decade.

    1) Cards 3.55 ERA (Versus a 4.01 FIP.)
    2) Dodgers 3.86
    3T) Indians 4.01
    3T) Tampa 4.01

    ——————————–

    Anyway, following the Arozarena/Liberatore upgrade, 13th is roughly 4-6 spots too low, depending on how much hitter/pitcher balance one prefers in a farm system. If one seeks some sort of Platonic ideal balance, the Cards should be about 9th. Largely indifferent to balance? Then 7th or so.

    But 13th isn’t so radically inaccurate that it’s worth starting a fight over. It’s a below average job of evaluating, but certainly not awful. Not the classic BA BS to which we became accustomed over the past 15-20 years. Without Callis or Manuel, the nonsense quotient there has markedly diminished.

    #122299
    Avatargscottar
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    The Rays have won at least 90 games 7 out of the last 12 years with one World Series appearance.
    The Dodgers have won at least 90 games 8 out of the last 12 years with two World Series appearances.

    It appears to me that both organizations are successful at the MLB level and milb level simultaneously. It should also be noted that both front offices were heavily influenced by Andrew Friedman. That is no coincidence.

    As for the Cards we have won at least 90 games 6 out of the last 12 years with two World Series appearances and one World Series win. Not bad but we still have a ways to go to get our farm system to the level of the two mentioned above.

    • This reply was modified 3 days, 17 hours ago by Avatargscottar.
    #122304
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Or, you could note that the Rays have been in the playoffs just once in the last six years and have only won any playoff series in one year, and it was a long time ago, 2008. If I was the Cardinals I wouldn’t trade franchises then or now.

    P.S. Don’t get me wrong. The Rays do very well with what they have and where they are. Building a strong farm system is a good strategy for them as they cannot afford top free agents.

    #122308
    Avatargscottar
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    The Rays play in a very tough division. Missing the playoffs is not a huge crime. (Although it will be if the new MLB playoff system is implemented). Consistently winning 90 games on their budget while having a good farm system is amazing.

    I didn’t say I would rather be the Rays than the Cardinals. I was just pointing out that they are good at both the MLB and milb levels.

    • This reply was modified 3 days, 16 hours ago by Avatargscottar.
    #122319
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    BA has a follow-on article in which they highlight each system’s strengths and weaknesses. Because it is for subscribers, I will only share the high level summary. They like the Cards’ catching depth and call out middle infield as a weakness, while noting that because of Wong, DeJong and Edman, it is not a long-term concern. Pretty much the same discussion we had here the other day, in fact.

    #122327
    Avatarmudville
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    I don’t understand how one team can have depth in one category and be weak in another. The Cubs, Indians, Rays, Blue Jays, and Dodgers are loaded with middle infielders/shortstops while the Cardinals have next to nothing presently in their system. Do scouts in one organization get somehow ‘tuned in’ to middle infielders and ‘tuned out’ to outfielders and catchers, while scouts in another organization gets tuned in to outfielders and catchers, and tuned out to middle infielders? I don’t get it. Maybe some organizations have a scouting director that’s good with certain positions, and not good with other positions? It seems like there should be balance, but there isn’t. The Cardinals couldn’t draft a shortstop for years and years until they hit on Paul Dejong in the 4th Round of the 2015 draft, and they haven’t found another one since.

    #122336
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Mud, I think more than the “narrow” or one track mind of the scouts and front office, it has more to do with guys working out. If Delvin Perez would have worked out, and was producing in AA already, that would have made a huge difference.

    On the flip side, if the Cards wouldn’t have lucked into drafting Knizner and Herrera hadn’t taken the Cards offer and gone for more money elsewhere, that catching depth would be scarce to say the least.

    #122338
    Avatarmudville
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    So they’re lucky drafting catchers, but unlucky drafting middle infielders.

    #122342
    Avatargscottar
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    Sometimes teams just draft the best player available instead of drafting for position.

    #122354
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    It would be great if every team knew which draftees were going to work out and which will not, but that is not realistic.

    For more than a decade after Molina came up, the Cards had very few catching prospects to speak of. Bryan Anderson was about it, but with Molina in place, it was not a high need. It doesn’t mean they stopped trying. Steve Bean was one big spend guy who did not pan out. There were others. Then they moved Kelly from third and he took to catching and got a few guys after that who look good, but are still unproven. Anderson was once a top prospect, too.

    Middle infield is in a down cycle right now, mostly because Perez has been a bust. But they can address it before it becomes an issue for St. Louis.

    #122356
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    I’m very interested in how Rayder Ascanio does in 2020.

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