Woodford

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  • #187990
    1982 willie
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    Mo is an idiot. That game he talked about manager not using helsley two innings. Got to have long view. Like I’ve always said, a loss now counts the same as a loss later in the season. we got blown out the next game and I don’t believe they used helsley the third game we lost. Helsley would have been just fine. Just stupid.

    #187993
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

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    This has come up now and then and there is really no sound baseball answer. You have to figure Hicks got the vacated rotation spot because his stuff is impressive, whereas Woodford does not light up the gun or look particularly imposing.

    Recent Cardinal teams seem to have certain guys that need to do more to earn a chance. Several years ago it took an almost historically bad run by Brandon Moss for Tommy Pham to get a chance, and even then he did not play over Moss.

    DeJong got a ton of opportunities. As others have theorized, there is something going on that is non-field related that has gotten Jake in management’s doghouse. Whenever decisions are made based on non-productive measures, the risk of making a bad decision increases. It seems we are seeing that now.

    #187994
    mudville
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    I don’t understand why Marmol, and possibly the front office, or the coaches at Memphis, are holding Woodford back. He has gotten better and better since drafted. He deserves some innings. Maybe they’re shopping him, or maybe one or more of his coaches simply believe he’s not ready. Maybe Marmol gives the starts to Liberatore and Thompson so the front office can see what they’ve got with those two. Just guessing, just trying to figure it out like everybody else.

    #188043
    gscottar
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    I have no idea if their is some kind of personal beef between Woodford and Marmol. I suppose it is possible but what I feel more comfortable in stating is that Mo expects his managers to do what the organization feels is best and not the other way around. I suspect Mr. Shildt would concur with that.

    Regardless of the reason I think most of us agree that Jake should be in St. Louis right now instead of the plethora of low hanging fruit vets we have sporting an ERA north of 5.00.

    #188055
    Lee
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    I have followed the Cards for years and never, never has a player been so disrespected as Woodford has.
    The FO needs to make a move, a professional move not a personal one; If your not going to give him a chance then trade, release or DFA the guy. He is way too good to be rotting in Memphis. There are several teams out there that could really use him; heck, the Cards could use him, if they just would.

    #188060
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

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    There was a guy I felt the Cardinals treated similar to Woodford, and that was Anthony Reyes about 15-16 years ago or so. Reyes was a top prospect and would come up when the club needed a spot starter, pitch a gem, then go back down.

    He got pressed into starting game one of the 2006 World Series and again did his usual stellar job. But for whatever reason it seemed Dave Duncan did not like him.

    Finally he got a shot at the rotation, although the club had acquired Kip Wells who they liked better. Reyes did struggle when finally pitching in rotation, and ended up going to Cleveland. But by then he had arm problems and never developed into a top pitcher.

    Adam Ottovino also never got much of a shot. Weird how that happens. Woodford is the latest in that lineage.

    With the way the team is playing it is sort of like complaining about the mole on Marilyn Monroe’s face. But still, it is odd how Woody has been left out.

    #188160
    Lee
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    Cards FO. If your not going to use his talents, do the right thing and let him play for another team…maybe the Marlins or Rays.!

    #188177
    Lee
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    This is really, really sad. Such an unprofessional display of management. Jake is a very easy going type guy and certainly hasn’t mouthed off to anyone; this is simply a fact that the FO and/or Mgr. are in denial on his pitching ability, which is much better than several guys on the current staff.

    #188181
    stlcard25
    Participant

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    I appreciate the takes and Woodford is better than I had given him credit for (I had him as a short term #8 starter/mop up guy) but he’s still a #5/6 who’s likely to be exposed if he pitches as much as everyone seems to want him to. I think he’s a better option than Packy Naughton, to be sure. We are still talking about a guy with the following career #s in the minors: 32-35, 3.91 ERA, 1.394 WHIP, a below average 6.7 K/9 and a subpar 3.6 BB/9. If you take out the extreme pitching environments in Peoria and Palm Beach where he made most of his hay, he has a 4.27 ERA, 1.381 WHIP and 7.3 K against 4.1 BB per 9 at Memphis and 5.22 ERA, 1.593 WHIP and 6.2 K against 3.9 BB per 9 at Springfield. Compare that to the common whipping boy of so many Cards fans I see elsewhere, Dakota Hudson, who ran through the minors at 26-9, 2.59 ERA, 1.279 WHIP and 6.4 K against 3.1 BB. We’ve seen Dakota beat the peripherals, but is it fair to expect Woodford to do it long term, too? Especially when the results weren’t there in the minors.

    Sorry to burst all the bubbles as the Cards have been pretty successful this year despite the naysayers (including myself at times), but the “mismanagement” of Woodford isn’t in the top 3 Cards blunders this year and wouldn’t make my top 10, maybe not top 25 of most bungled situations in the last five years. He’s a guy who probably won’t kill you if you have to start him for a few months, but he’s a poor man’s John Gant, or a righty Tyler Lyons IMO. That type.

    #188185
    bccran
    Participant

    No one has said he would be a top half of the rotation pitcher. And he’s not a strikeout guy – just a control pitcher who tries to make you hit his pitch. A #4-#5 guy. But he did very well last season down the stretch against major league hitters, and has a sub 4.00 ERA at Memphis right now.
    My guess is that he would out perform Wittgren, McFarland, Naughton, and VerHagen out of the bullpen if given the chance.

    #188190
    stlcard25
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    I think several have indicated that Marmol/Mo/the Cards’ treatment of Woodford is just shy of criminal, or at least savagely incompetent. To me, that doesn’t mean he’s a back end starter who’s just not getting his due. I get the sense that the concensus here is that he’s a surefire starter (which to me is at least a #4) or one of our better relievers.

    I simply don’t agree with that assessment. As a starter, I’d project an ERA in the upper 4s somewhere. In relief you could maybe project around 4. Our starters have a collective 3.73 ERA, and relief 3.86 ERA. So to me he’s a below average starter (a #5/6) or a middle inning relief guy/multi inning BP saver. This early in the season, can we absolutely say that’s better than what we have? I can’t.

    That’s not to say that Mo’s off-season moves have planned out, fwiw. They’ve been unquestionably awful. That said, I’d take everyone but Oviedo (meaning Liberatore, Thompson, Rondon and Thomas) in the regular Memphis rotation over Woodford, either in the starter or relief role.

    #188199
    Lee
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    It’s hard to say Woodford wouldn’t do well as a starter since he has had zero chances this year. Plus all his starts last year had been good ones. Plus whenever he pitched this year he’s done well.

    #188206
    Bob Reed
    Participant

    Free

    We’re still getting a lot a good comments, thoughtful opinions. Well done, fellow Birdfans. Now I’ll get tedious and respond to a few of those thoughts.

    “We’ve seen Dakota beat the peripherals, but is it fair to expect Woodford to do it long term, too? Especially when the results weren’t there in the minors.”

    Interesting question. Let’s take a look at Woodford’s complete track record.
    In his pro career, Woodford has 11 pitching samples in the minors and majors, ranging in volume from 11.2 to 151.2 innings. In all 11 of those samples, Jake Woodford’s ERA beat his FIP. So beating his peripherals is in fact the only thing Woodford has ever done, at any level, regardless of sample size.

    “There was a guy I felt the Cardinals treated similar to Woodford, and that was Anthony Reyes about 15-16 years ago or so. Reyes was a top prospect and would come up when the club needed a spot starter, pitch a gem, then go back down. He got pressed into starting game one of the 2006 World Series and again did his usual stellar job. But for whatever reason it seemed Dave Duncan did not like him.”

    I’m working strictly off memory here, but I seem to recall that Reyes was terrific in the minors, with a dynamic 94-97 heater, but then was allowed to throw 125+ pitches in a shutout or no-no, and was never the same after that. His velocity soon dipped down to 89-92 and Dave Duncan hated the fact that Reyes was still pitching at the top of the strike zone with that diminished velocity. Duncan was convinced (maybe rightly, maybe not) that anyone with that middling fastball should be a groundball pitcher — or at least not try and live at the top of the zone, as Reyes was.

    “Adam Ottovino also never got much of a shot. Weird how that happens. Woodford is the latest in that lineage.”

    Maybe someone else can confirm this, but unless I mis-remember I think Otto at the MLB level was basically a failed starter who refused a move to the bullpen when the Cards strongly suggested it. Loggerheads ensued, and he was eventually discarded. Whereupon he wised up, switched to relief, and had a pretty great run of 6-8 years.

    “I think several have indicated that Marmol/Mo/the Cards’ treatment of Woodford is just shy of criminal, or at least savagely incompetent. To me, that doesn’t mean he’s a back end starter who’s just not getting his due. I get the sense that the consensus here is that he’s a surefire starter (which to me is at least a #4) or one of our better relievers.”

    I like that. “Savagely incompetent.” Wish I’d thought of it, 25. Speaking just for myself, I think Jake W. is a #4/5 starter if given the opportunity. Or maybe a high-leverage swingman/long man, if his team already has a quiver full of high-quality starters. (Over the winter, I was not upset at all that Steven Matz was signed, rather than the 5th starter role handed to Woodford. I figured Woodford would be a great guy to have as a starter-in-waiting, working 40-70 pitch outings in the bullpen.)

    My blood-boiling level of upset re Woodford isn’t because I think he’s really, really good. It’s because I think he’s much, much better than the role Marmol immediately & inexplicably put him in, which was back-of-the-pitching-staff garbageman. And due to the particular circumstances of this year’s team (pitching injuries, doubleheaders both scheduled and unscheduled), that bizarre misusage of Woodford has in my opinion been considerably more damaging than it might have during a different season.

    As mentioned previously, rather than give Woodford (2.51 ERA last September in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance) a rotation shot for even one game, Marmol has given numerous starts this year to pitchers who have never even succeeded as starters at the AAA level, much less the majors. Instead of giving his team the best chance to win, Marmol has prioritized NOT given a legit MLB hurler an opportunity to show what he can do. And that really ticks me off.

    #188212
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I’ll make the same comment I’ve said before. I do not believe these decisions are made by one man.

    #188215
    1982 willie
    Participant

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    They probably aren’t made by one man. And that is a big problem. If it was just one person, they can be easily replaced. The fact that we have more than one inept person, makes it harder to see us doing better. But even if the Cardinals win the world series this year, it in no way justifies what they are doing with Woodford. Success doesn’t wash away the sin.

    #188221
    Lee
    Participant

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    Reed and Willie, I am like many other fans very much in agreement with you. Lets only hope management gets there head out of their a–, and get Woodford back up where he belongs..!

    #188226
    stlcard25
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    Interesting question. Let’s take a look at Woodford’s complete track record.
    In his pro career, Woodford has 11 pitching samples in the minors and majors, ranging in volume from 11.2 to 151.2 innings. In all 11 of those samples, Jake Woodford’s ERA beat his FIP. So beating his peripherals is in fact the only thing Woodford has ever done, at any level, regardless of sample size.

    Bob, I have a tremendous amount of respect for your passion and knowledge of our teams’ prospects. Yet, I feel the need to push back a little on this one. Here are Woodford’s ERA/FIP by level:

    R 2.39/3.23
    A- 3.31/3.99
    A+ 3.10/4.08
    AA 5.22/5.75
    AAA 4.50/4.81
    AAA 4.15/5.54
    MLB 5.57/6.74
    AAA 4.50/4.54
    MLB 3.99/4.50
    AAA 3.86/4.14
    MLB 3.32/3.77

    So while I agree that it’s clear he can and may well beat his FIP, it’s not like most of them are high bars to clear at any level. Again, I think you’ll notice that besides the cup of tea appearances in MLB, he has not been very successful anywhere above the extreme pitcher parks of single A.

    Now, do I think there is a case to be made that the Cards should go with the hot hand and ride it til it blows up? Sure. I simply don’t think that Woodford is a quality MLB starter in the larger sort of samples needed to make qualified statements on such things. I suspect he’s a 4.50-4.75 ERA, 5 FIP pitcher and while there’s a use for that, I don’t really blame MoGirsch for not overplaying their hand there.

    Again, I know I’m the only one holding this opinion, but I’ll continue to stand by it and hope that Woodford proves me long, long term.

    #188227
    Lee
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    STLcard, appreciate your input, but you have to agree almost every year he has gotten better. Then he has a very good 2021, and very good 2022 spring, and has pitched well when given a chance. So why the !?? would he not at least be getting an opportunity to pitch now, when he has clearly done better than 5-6 of the current pitchers on the roster..??

    #188231
    gscottar
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    I’ll make the same comment I’ve said before. I do not believe these decisions are made by one man.

    I have been saying this over and over also. There is no way the Cardinals are allowing a 35 year old rookie manager to make a lot of personnel decisions. Since TLR left we have had three managers, all with zero MLB level managing experience. I do not think that is a coincidence. The front office likes a top down management style with minimal pushback.

    #188235
    sjeff70
    Participant

    Free

    stlcard,

    Make that two. I went against the grain on page one of this thread.

    #188238
    bccran
    Participant

    Yes, sjeff. You said he fizzled out at the end of last season and the facts proved otherwise.

    #188240
    sjeff70
    Participant

    Free

    “I remember last year as a starter he fizzled at the end. He had no control of his secondary pitches and in one game he threw nothing but fastballs. I think he pitched one more game after that and couldn’t get through the first couple innings. Didn’t see him after that in 2021.

    This year I think he pitched a few innings in relief but I didn’t watch him pitch. Era isn’t entirely accurate for relievers since they get bailed out if they get in trouble. Stats don’t tell the whole story.”

    Yes, bccran. I’m in agreement with everyone else. Keep listening to your facts. LOL!

    #188241
    sjeff70
    Participant

    Free

    Don’t forget this one:

    “I don’t see him like you all do but I’m willing to give him a chance, which I think is all you guys are asking.”

    #188244
    bccran
    Participant

    sjeff – I’m not being confrontational, but look up his stats for September of last season. He had 6 appearances, of which 5 were starts. In 28 2/3 innings he gave up only 23 hits and 8 walks. His ERA was 2.51 and his WHIP was 1.081. That a long way fizzling.

    #188245
    stlcard25
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    stlcard,

    Make that two. I went against the grain on page one of this thread.

    I apologize, I missed your comments! You and I can be the two members of the Woodford Doubter Club. Hopefully we will be proven wrong, but time will tell. I just don’t think he’s good enough to be up in arms over. I’d much rather bring Libby up and let him learn on the go. At least it’ll pay dividends in the future.

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