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Its hard to call 20 PAs a chance.
Agreed. But Nogowski was never a slugging 1B. I think shipping him off was more about clearing playing time for Juan Yepez.
I don’t see how LJ Jones is in the discussion with Carlson, Gorman and Walker at all.
He was a college player. The other three were all drafted out of high school. He is in Low A with a .250/.293/.371 slash line. Walker jost got promoted after posting a .374/.475/.687 slash line.
2017 – None of them look like foundational pieces. Robertson is probably a backup IF, Whitley a mediocre reliever. Mendoza is struggling in AAA.
2018 – Roberts appears to be a bust, Baker has not done much of anything in his pro career, Gil was traded
2019 – Thompson is really struggling in AAA. Fletcher is at the complex. Locey is traded. There are some that are doing better at the lower levels (Pallante, Connor Thomas, Todd Lott). The 2019 class seems like the one most impacted by the lost year.The club was recognized as having one of the best, if nit the best, Analytics group in the business.
I don’t know when that was ever considered to be the case outside of Cardinals fans
Not taking anything away, but those pitches to Bader were way out of the zone.
Yes, you were going out of your way to say something negative about Bader’s homerun.
Does anyone else think that would be a smart move for us to try and acquire a pick in the thirties to grab an extra player we like? Maybe we could give up some ifa pool bonus money and a minor league player we don’t have a spot for, like an Evan Mendoza?
If the opportunity presents itself, then yeah, we should try to acquire a comp pick. But, most teams realize the value of their draft picks, and are hesitant to give them up, unless it’s part of a larger deal for an impact player.
As for giving up IFA bonus pool money for a comp pick – my guess is you have to give up substantially more IFA bonus pool money than the draft pick slot allocation. The Cardinals have decided they would rather spread their IFA money to multiple players than go after one big signing on the IFA market, so this seems counter to their current organizational philosophy.
.208 now, willie.
What’s Carlson’s BA, willie?
Just because something can be measured, does not make it a good statistic. For close to two decades now, it has been realized that on base percentage is a better metric than batting average.
I’ll give an example. Years ago I was evaluating KPIs for a Fortune 500 company. One of the metrics they had was Average Wait Time for an Answer – how long it took someone to pick up the call. It’s easy to measure, and if they pick up within two rings, that’s obviously better than 8-10 rings, right? The problem is, they manipulated the metric by installing that auto-prompt for a call back. The phone is answered, tells you there is a 30 minute wait time, and you can enter your number and they will call you back. Metric looks great! But it does nothing to improve the customer experience from a perception standpoint.
What matters to customers calling in is first call resolution, which they were not measuring at all.
If a Fortune 500 company can understand that First Call Resolution is a superior metric to Average Wait Time, maybe we should all realize On Base Percentage is a better metric than Batting Average.
As I recall, the talk as to Bader out was that his return would stabilize the outfield defense even with the weak bat. But while he was out the outfield defense stabilized itself pretty much as Carlson settled in to CF. Still, Bader may up the OF defense, but enough to justify sitting the better bat?
Statcast Outs Above Average in CF the last two years:
Bader: +7, 91% success rate vs 87% estimated success rate (+4%)
Carlson: -1, 88% success rate vs 89% estimated success rate (-1%)Statcast does not incorporate missed cutoff men. Carlson is terrible at hitting his cutoff man, which allows baserunners to advance.
Statcast Outs Above Average in RF the last two years:
Edman: +2, 86% success rate vs 84% expected success rate (+2%)
Carlson: +1, 92% success rate vs 90% expected success rate (+2%)Note: While the difference in success rate vs expected success rate is equal, the defense notably improves with Carlson in RF.
Statcast Outs Above Average at 2B the last two years:
Edman: +7, 84% success rate vs 81% expected success rate (+3%)
Carpenter: -3, 71% success rate vs 76% expected success rate (-5%)Based on the data, having Bader back in CF, Carlson in RF and Edman at 2B dramatically improves the defensive outlook.
Sorry UConn. Didn’t know another way to refer to an under-performer who is turning himself into looking like a girl.
So, you are told to clean it up, and this is what you come back with? You apologize in one sentence and double down in the second sentence.
The Cardinals drafting philosophy over the years has been to draft pitching, pitching, and more pitching.
The feeling is that you never have enough pitching, and also that you can trade pitching for position players as needed to fill in.
Yes, except they traded away all their pitching for impact bats that have had little impact.
With a sprinkling of high ceiling high school position players thrown in…..Plummer, Denton, Tilson, Kelly, D. Perez, etc.
To me, Plummer was never a high ceiling pick. His one tool was his ability to draw a walk. Perez, yes, high ceiling/low floor.
He was asked directly whether the Rays would have taken another outfielder besides Arozarena in the trade package.
Okay, but would we have gotten Liberatore back?
At the time, everybody was thinking the Cardinals got a steal because we gave up Jose Martinez and Arazorena for Liberatore and Rodriguez. It turns out, Liberatore and Arazorena were ranked pretty equally after the trade.
This is not the trade I would argue the Cardinals lost.
What if the other player the Rays would have accepted for Liberatore was TON?
What if they would have accepted Thomas, but we would not have gotten Liberatore, but rather some pitcher we’ve never heard of?
Well, this is a recent phenomenon. Prior to the Ozuna trade, the last big trade the Cardinals did of multiple prospects for a star was Matt Holiday, which we 9-10 years prior to the Ozuna trade.
And these trades were made in search of a middle-of-the-order bat, which for years, the Cardinals could not produce in-house.
I agree, the flaw in the Cardinals development process is they don’t nurture players when they make the leap from AAA to MLB. Grichuk had too many strikeouts. Voit was “blocked” by Carpenter. TON was blocked by Ozuna, etc. They need to get better at how they transition players from AAA to MLB.
Is there something uniquely bad about his Tommy John compared to the hundreds who recovered just fine?
There is roughly a 20% chance of a pitcher not recovering TJS affects on MLB Pitchers
I like that potential rotation of Flaherty, Hudson, Reyes Liberatore and a Mr X at five, perhaps Waino.
Reyes needs to stay in the bullpen.
Bring in an outside starter like: 1) Scherzer 2) Lynn 3) Stroman
If you figure the salaries of Carpenter + Folwer = Arenado
Then, CMart + Miller = Scherzer?
It is an absolute mystery why Thompson isn’t in Springfield.
Because you need to bring somebody up from Springfield to replace him. And nobody from Sprinfield is answering the call.
I really think Mikolas is done.
Agreed
Peeing in a cup at work for us is much different than an athlete peeing in a cup when there’s megamillions at stake.
No, it’s not. There are megamillions at stake when a truck driver kills a family. There are megamillions (and more) at stake when somebody with TSI clearance steals national security materials.
There was a comment made by a reporter in The Athletic recently that said nobody watches players ‘pee in a cup’ when being tested for PED’s thereby questioning the whole process of testing for steroids, and thereby questioning the claim that MLB is steroids free.
Nobody watches you pee in a cup when you get drug tested for a job, either. They wait right outside the bathroom.
What exactly did Edman say?
I don’t think we’ve necessarily done the greatest job of making a game plan for how guys are going to throw us day-by-day and working on things pre-game that are specifically tailored to prepare ourselves for that. So I think we’re going to kind of start to implement a few more of those things into our pre-game routines and hopefully that helps us out.”
Jimenez went 5 strong( 8 K’s ) in Palm Beach’s 5-4 win tonight.
He also walked the bases loaded at least once
We have to hope that Andrew Miller can pitch lights out up until the trade deadline, and that there is a market for Kim.
Those are the only two that would figure to be tradeable.
