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Hey Everyone,
Since the big league club is not doing so hot, I thought it might be time to look for reasons to be optimistic. I’ve been curious about this particular questions for a little bit, basically since Mozeliak famously said that Carlson was out best hitting prospect since Taveras (he may have actually said since Pujols if I remember correctly). Basically, over the last couple years we have developed three hitting prospects who fit the label of stud prospect in Carlson, Gorman, and Walker. They are all high school draftees, though they have some strengths in common and others that they don’t all share. What I wanted to look at is how they performed at similar ages/stages of development to get an idea of who might be the best of the bunch or if they are similarly talented.
Here are the numbers for A ball and their ages at the time:
Carlson: 101 wrc+ as an 18 year old, 126 wrc+ as a 19 year old before getting promoted
Gorman: 97 wrc+ as an 18 year old, 128 wrc+ as a 19 year old before getting promoted
Walker: 202 wrc+ !!!, spent time as both an 18 year old and has been 19 for a month, still at that level but will be promoted soon I would think. It should be noted that Walker is playing against maybe diluted competition since there is no rookie ball anymore, but he is also playing in a power-supressing park that both Carlson and Gorman didn’t have to deal with until high-a.Carlson at high-a: 112 wrc+ as a 19 year old.
Gorman at high-a: 117 wrc+ as a 19-year old.Carlson at double-a: 142 wrc+ as a 20 year old.
Gorman at double-a: currently a 130 wrc+ but he is in the middle of a cold stretch. Has been as high a the 160s, I suspect he will get his wrc+ up to about the 140’s again before he is promoted to triple-a. Gorman started double a as a 20 year old but is now 21.My thoughts are that Gorman and Carlson appear to be similarly effective hitters, though Gorman has more power and less plate discipline, the advanced metrics say they are probably similar as far as how good of prospects they are. The exciting thing is that Walker appears to be in a class of his own if you just look at how they performed at similar ages. Obviously, Walker still has a ways to go in his development, but he could be truly special and is probably in a different class of prospect compared to Gorman and Carlson.
What are everyone elses thoughts on how these three compare?
We are about to see how Gorman does in AAA and Jordan in A+. Moving up fast. Hopefully neither hits a wall like Thompson. And hopefully Jordan doesn’t get his head exploded being compared to Pujols by the PBO.
Of particular interest will be what happens on the D side of their game, being 3rd basemen at this point. Garcia and now Nogoski prove it doesn’t matter if you absolutely rake at AAA when a money guy is sitting in your spot in STL. Take a quick look at those two guys batting line in Memphis. It gives you the idea what isn’t good enough in the Cardinals organization when you are blocked by a contract guy.
I think you have to move Gorman to the outfield. Maybe Walker ends up moving across to first base, ala Pujols. And finally, I expect we go to a universal DH next year, so an extra bat will be needed.
Good hitters will force their way into a lineup. Over time things will work out.
On another thread I talked about the problem with comparing Walker, Pujols and Taveras at similar age or level. The issue being they arrived at that station by 3 radically different paths. Walker a year removed from high school ball. Pujols coming from Junior College, and some uncertainty before that. Taveras coming in as a 17 yr old in the Dominican program and having a couple years pro experience by the same age.
On one hand Walker might be considered more impressive, but on the other hand he was a high school player a year ago, so there is not much to go on.
How he does and how the organizations handles him will be intriguing.
With Walker and Gorman both we need to remember all our young 3B prospects being gushed about over the last 10 years. None of which amounted to anything, at least not for us.
I am not into Jones at all. Corner OF singles hitter. If he develops some power without turning into Dave Kingman I will get interested.
Of course, he could be a good enough center fielder but it will be another organization that finds that out. I do not understand why they would not put a promising OF prospect there in A level until he proves he is not going to be able to do it going forward. Unless they think they have the next Willie Mays there already, move him aside and find out what we’ve got. In the old days, a promising prospect had to work his way down to what he could do, not start out there. For crying out loud.
Bicycle mike, apparently Gorman told the front office he preferred to stay in the infield. I think Walker will end up in the outfield as I read he has a good 60 meter time and moves really well once he gets going.
Suggest you read a few of the scouting reports on L.J. Jones,
Blingboy. No one has labeled him a singles hitter but you.I don’t see how LJ Jones is in the discussion with Carlson, Gorman and Walker at all.
He was a college player. The other three were all drafted out of high school. He is in Low A with a .250/.293/.371 slash line. Walker jost got promoted after posting a .374/.475/.687 slash line.
Suggest you read a few of the scouting reports on L.J. Jones,
Blingboy. No one has labeled him a singles hitter but you.Looking at the state of the system, I think we should all sent the scouting reports aside. I just looked at his stats from college and MiLB. The reality is he is a singles hitter. In scouting analytics wonky la la land he might be Babe Ruth.
Jones is a fine athlete. He was also on a football scholarship at college. Listen to what his coach says about his power. He lost his sophomore year to injury and his junior year to the pandemic. So are you going with his freshman year as far as power? Again, look at where he’s hitting in the Palm Beach lineup. And please don’t quote me 2021 stats when he’s only played in 31 games, after most of last 2 seasons off.
And please don’t quote me 2021 stats when he’s only played in 31 games, after most of last 2 seasons off.
Well, its between his stats and what his coach thinks based presumably on what he’s seen in 2021. Maybe he is the babe in bating practice. His record shows 6 HRs and a .406 SLG in 4 years. (.364 SLG in pro ball). If he is not a singles hitter when is he going to do something besides hit singles.
Look more closely, blingboy. After very little playing the last 2 seasons, he was put up at Palm Beach in the #3 slot. In only 31 games he has 6 doubles, 3 homers, and 16 RBI. That seasonalizes to 30 doubles, 15 home runs, and 80 RBI. Far from just a “singles hitter”.
Suggest you read a few of the scouting reports on L.J. Jones,
Blingboy.Listen to what his coach says about his power.
And please don’t quote me 2021 stats when he’s only played in 31 games, after most of last 2 seasons off.
Look more closely, blingboy.
Are you always this condescending? Is this how you engage in conversations with your friends, family or co-workers?
You are the only one that believes a college hitter that hasn’t produced in Low A is equivalent to high school hitters that have.
Reiterating your stance over and over isn’t going to change that. Being condescending isn’t going to change that.
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