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Cardinals aren’t waiting on Bregman
“The Cardinals believed they had an agreeable trade in place with Houston, but Arenado vetoed the move,” St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold wrote Monday. “Since, the market has slowed as free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman has yet to make a decision on where he’ll sign. Several of the teams that have interest in Bregman also have interest in Arenado, and there are at least two teams that would re-engage if the Cardinals prove willing to pick up more of Arenado’s salary.”
So, according to Cardinals PR Man Derrick Goold, the Cardinals aren’t actually waiting on Bregman to sign elsewhere to trade Arenado.
They are waiting on the Cardinals to realize they have to pay down more of Arenado’s salary to move a player who declined from 7.7 WAR to 2.5 WAR in two years. The team that fleeced the Colorado Rockies for $51 million for an in-his-prime Arenado, refuses to budge from their $15-20 million line for a rapidly declining player.
So much for moving Arenado being priorities one, two and three.
Mo also said today that trading Arenado is their current priority 1, 2 and 3.
It’s such a priority that Mo is waiting patiently by the phone for teams to call him after Bregman signs somewhere.
No, they could talk to one another every day and it wouldn’t matter one iota. What is needed is for one of them to find a team acceptable to Arenado that will take him at a price acceptable to the Cardinals.
Actually, it matters a great deal.
The Cardinals haven’t heard any interest from any clubs since Arenado voided the deal to Houston. Prior to that, the Yankees, Houston, Kansas City and at least one other mid-market team had expressed interest in Arenado.
The Yankees proposal was so bad, that the Cardinals let it be known to the whole world they didn’t even take it to Arenado, even though it would have reduced their overall financial commitment by at least 42% and put them in a much stronger place to achieve their goal of unloading as much salary as possible. And, if you look at Stroman’s performance away from Yankee stadium, you see a very strong case as to why he is much better than his numbers suggest.
Kansas City Royals, when they checked in, the Cardinals also did not approach Arenado, because they did not “think” he would accept a trade to them. Upgrade their 3B and add an outfielder with some thump (say Grichuk), they start to look like a really good squad…
Houston – why were the Cardinals engaged deep into trade discussions with them without consulting Arenado first? They weren’t on his six-team wish list, which was public by that point. Yet the Cardinals did not think it prudent to check in with Arenado to see if he would accept a trade? So, they get all the way to the finish line and Arenado has to void the deal. Arenado is pointed to as the guy who blew up a perfectly good deal, instead of the Cardinals being the ones who didn’t even talk to the guy with a full NTC about whether he would accept a trade.
And the Cardinals are left wondering why nobody will inquire about a trade for Arenado…
As relayed by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Helsley indicated that he was actually under the impression he’d be getting traded this winter when the offseason began. The righty added that when his camp heard from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about six weeks after the season ended and was told the Cardinals plan to hold onto him this winter, he initially believed the call was to inform him of a trade.
How disfunctional is the Cardinals front office?
Part of Helsley’s belief that he was ticketed for a trade this winter is based on the fact that there’s “never been any talk about extensions” between his camp and the Cardinals, he indicated. As noted by Jones, Helsley made clear that he would love to stay in St. Louis beyond the end of his time under team control but called negotiations a “two-way street” before adding that “if only one side wants [an extension], it’s not going to work out.”
The only reason the Cardinals should even entertain keeping Helsley is if they are going to try to extend him.
I hope DeWitt sees how bad the Cardinals look in all of this and just cans Mo.
Mozeliak said he hadn’t yet spoken with Arenado or his camp about possibly expanding the third baseman’s list of preferred trade destinations. In fact, Mozeliak said he hadn’t directly spoken with Arenado for close to a month, as the two last had contact before the holidays.
And this is why the Cardinals efforts to trade Arenado are failing. They aren’t even talking!!!
Mozeliak provided some explanation for not moving Fedde or Matz today, noting that the Cards “don’t really love [the] idea” of potentially leaving the team short-handed on the pitching front. “We really feel like we have some depth in our rotation right now, so I really don’t want to start preparing tearing away from that, in terms of thinking about moving a position player to achieve some financial goals,” Mozeliak said. “That would be something we could consider as well, but we really don’t want to.”
There you go, jnevel. Mo says he doesn’t want to trade Matz and Fedde because he wants depth in the rotation in a year where the Cardinals have said they are not going to compete.
The failures of this offseason are 100% on Mo.
I don’t think the reset will be fully over until Arenado, Gray, and Contreras are ALL off of the books.
Agreed. The one-year “reset” was their marketing spin.
LA, Bill has been a seller since Middleton signed, and he still is. I will guess his priority today is how do i get to 116mil (+/-) on opening day, and trade returns are secondary.
He is well aware 45mil of our FA’s-to-be walk away ten months from now, that’s the finish line for him. Why would he pay 138mil to get there, when dumping Arenado or a mix of players can start the season around 116mil?
Convoluted way of asking things jj, but let me try to answer.
The Cardinals had a press conference where they announced they were going to do a “reset”, not a traditional rebuild. They said they expect to compete in 2026.
It since came out that they attempted to do a total rebuild, but were blocked by their last two FA signings.
It also came out their primary motivation in moving Arenado is dumping salary, not getting prospects back.
Now, a traditional rebuild has three phases – the salary clearing phase where you get out of all the high-money contracts you can and trade players that are not going to be part of your next window of contention for prospects.
Then you have the awful performance phase where you are playing minor leaguers at the major league level and hoping they get better.
Then, hopefully, you have the rebuild phase where the minor leaguers that were playing at the major-league level get better and start winning games. As you win more games, more fans come back. As you get closer to a winning team, you start investing in free agents to complement the team.
The Cardinals said they are going to do all this in one year (which was absurd on its face). It’s going to take them three years to get out of all their high-priced contracts. They have players in the final years of their deals that they could trade for prospects that will help them in 2026 and beyond, but are not yet doing so.
Bill does not have a desire to have a payroll at $116 million. He wanted it much, much lower.
If the Cardinals want to compete in 2026, they need to upgrade their 20th-ranked farm system and get some prospects who can contribute in 2026 & beyond. Indications they are unwilling to do that.
Now they are talking about how they want to compete in 2025, but they can’t do anything until they move Arenado.
Their indecisiveness is absurd.
I just don’t like to judge them prematurely. There may be a much better offer in March than what was there in December and if that is the case, then I’m glad they waited.
All the reporting is they aren’t even listening to offers.
Do you think it is better to listen to offers when 25 teams are trying to upgrade their rosters, or in training camp, when most teams have their rosters already set?
I would rather have 25 teams trying to outdo each other.
My point is that I’m sure the Cardinals are still listening to other teams’ inquiries and are still likely willing to trade if they think the offer is good.
If the Cardinals were listening to offers, we would be hearing how astronomically high their asking prices are.
Instead we are hearing how they have given other team the impression that are not trading Helsley at all and have told other teams they are planning on holding Fedde until closer to the trade deadline.
I think it’s possible Gorman starts the year in Memphis.
People seem to forget he put up an .806 OPS in 2023…
I am curious why people think Saggesse will make the opening day roster over Gorman.
And when did the Cardinals announce Donovan will be the opening day 2B?
Maybe Mo could sign a vet like DeJong on the cheap, but why?
Because Saggesse only had a .751 OPS in AAA and a .556 OPS in MLB last year.
Maybe the Cardinals should start making sure guys can hit at the AAA level before putting them on the big league roster.
There is no reason to trade away assets before their value is highest unless an overwhelming offer comes along. Do we know that the Cardinals are just passing up overwhelming offers and just ignoring them?
What we know is the Cardinals have been telling other teams they are planning to keep Helsley and not trade Fedde until closer to the deadline.
The Cardinals don’t even know what offers they are passing up, because they are just shutting down talks before they start.
It’s a laghably bad way to seek the best deals.
All of the Fedde points made above apply here — and then some. Helsley is a dominant closer earning an affordable $8.2MM salary — the type of player every single contender would love to get its hands on. The Cardinals, a team that won 83 games last year and has not meaningfully added to the roster, could fetch a sizable return for him. Trading him prior to the season gives his new club the chance to make a qualifying offer at season’s end, thus increasing his trade value. (Ditto Fedde, for that matter.) Yet all reports out of St. Louis have suggested the Cards plan to hold onto Helsley and Fedde. If the Cardinals want to back their way into Wild Card contention, they should be trying to add to the roster. If they want to retool, they should be shopping short-term assets. Holding Helsley until the deadline lowers his trade value and creates the risk of an injury or downturn in performance. Relievers are baseball’s most fickle asset. The Cardinals seem caught in the middle. It’s perplexing.
There’s that phrase again – caught in the middle. And yes, it is perplexing that the Cardinals don’t seem to understand they need to be adding prospects if they plan to compete in 2026 and beyond.
Fedde should be higher on this list. Heck, he should’ve already been traded. The Cardinals announced to begin the offseason that they were going to step back and focus on player development. They’ve been trying to trade Arenado for months, to no avail. Their payroll isn’t down as low as ownership would like, it would seem. Beyond that, the step toward a youth movement seems to strongly eliminate the chances of the Cards contending. Fedde is being paid a bargain $7.5MM and is a free agent at season’s end. If the Cardinals are trying to contend, they should add around players like this. If they’re trying to step back and focus on development, Fedde should be shopped for prospect help since he’ll be gone next winter and isn’t a guarantee to remain healthy/productive until the deadline. As Anthony Franco recently wrote, the St. Louis offseason has been a half measure, and not a very productive one at that.
MLBTR roasting the Cardinals front office for having no clue…
A couple of thing’s about Stroman’s 2024 performance:
In Yankee Stadium:
5.31 ERA / 15 HR allowedOn the Road:
3.09 ERA / 4 HR allowedThe left porch in Yankee stadium is notoriously HR-friendly, Busch Stadium III is pitcher-friendly
There are 3 years/$64 million remaining on Arenado’s contract.
There is one year/$18.5 remaining on Stroman’s contract, which can turn into two years/$37 million if he pitches more than 140 innings this year.
Q1. Is it easier to get out of 3 years/$64 million or 2 years $37 million?
Q2. What is the difference in maximum contract values between the two? Is that significant?As for salary. Arenado makes $27 million this year. And let’s say BikeMike is correct that Arenado is deferring $6 million. So, the cash outlay is $21 million.
Stroman makes $18.5 million this year.
In absolute dollars, that is a savings 0f $8.5 million. From a cash flow perspective for 2025, that is a savings of a paltry $2.5 million.
However, now you have seven starters for five rotation spots.
And one of the things you are supposed to do in a rebuild is acquire prospects that can improve your next window of contention.
So, with the pitching surplus, they could now trade Erick Fedde and his $7.5 million and acquire prospects that help us in 2026 & beyond (which they should be seeking to do anyway).
Alternatively, the could pay down Stromany’s contract and seek to flip him for salary relief. They are willing to pay down $15-20 million to get rid of Arenado, but not finding any teams interested.
Q3. Why wouldn’t they also be willing to pay down $10-20 million of Stroman’s contract to move him off the books, if it gets them to the same place?
Q4. Do you think nobody is going to take Stroman is the Cardinals pay down $10 million in the first year and a (contingent) $5 million in the second year?As for trading straight up, when the Yankees initially proposed the swap, I would have immediately asked for Spencer Jones or George Lombard, Jr as part of the deal. The Yankees would have likely said absolutely not, but they probably would have been willing to give up other prospects as part of the deal.
Instead, the Cardinals went public with how preposterous they thought the deal was, and now that deal is probably gone for good.
New York Mets – haven’t really heard anything indicating they are interested
New York Yankees – want the Cardinals to eat a significant portion of Arenado’s salary or take Stroman back (which is probably the best move for the Cardinals at this point)
Los Angeles Angels – while they are ready to replace Rendon at 3B, I don’t see them tying up $65 million at 3B for two aging veterans
Not only that, but the guy they lost money for, they were talking about trying to trade already…
Well, they wanted to trade him because now the bill comes due. He played for $10 million last year, it will be $25 million this year…
The Cardinals evidently thought that when he signed here because he wanted to play closer to home, he was just saying that as part of their marketing strategy.
According to MLB.com, about 20 of the Top 50 haven’t singed yet. Dodgers have already lost three of their commitments so far…
Terrible year to be short on bonus pool money.
If the numbers I researched are correct, Arenado “only” costs the club $21 million in 2025.
Arenado costs $27 million this year (after the Rockies pay $5 million). Yes, there are deferrals built into the last few years of his contact, but I don’t think we know how those are broken out.
Who knows, GameCard might be on to something. Maybe he comes back strong this year and we compete, resulting in higher ticket revenue than budgeted?
The Cardinals have had him for four years and won 0 playoff games. They are forecasting a substantial decline in ticket revenue, based on what we saw in the stands last year and offseason ticket sales.
Fans are going to ask the team to “show me”, and at this point, the club appears unwilling to show anything.
Well jj, you may get your wish.
Samad Taylor was just DFA’d from the Mariners.
Maybe this will get the two sides talking about an Arenado trade…
Here we thought you were working on a scoop of all the prospects coming back in trades the Cardinals had lined up!!! 🙂
