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I know historically we have done well with first early round college pitchers, but has that remained true under Randy Flores?
Under Flores, the Cardinals have taken two college pitchers and four high school hitters in the first round.
As for Thompson, he was one whose results never matched his stuff in college, and it does not appear the Cardinals have fixed that issue.
Some guys that look intriguing based on either system needs or Randy Flores’ history that I’m hoping the Cardinals can grab with their first round pick are:
Pitchers
Hoglund – he fits the mold of a guy who might fall into our laps who if healthy wouldn’t be there. Excellent stuff and I read a report saying he has elite command. There is some percentage chance he stuff may deteriorate due to getting tommy John, so that is a risk to be sure.Bachman – elite sinker and slider, inconsistent change up. Command really improved this year which vaulted him up draft boards.
Wicks – lefty with the best change up in the draft and a good fastball. Can hit 97, so considerably more velocity than Marco Gonzalez had to work with.
McGreevy – mid 90s fastball, throws four pitches and has good command. Was a late bloomer as a prospect so there could be a lot of untapped potential as he was a converted middle infielder.
Hitters
Zavala – fits the combo of good hit tool, power, and advanced plate discipline that Flores seems to fall in love with. If we took him at 18, might be able to sign him under slot like we did with Walker last year.Ford – fits the hit tool plus power mold, is a great athlete, currently a catcher but could play elsewhere. Is a high schooler but Flores isn’t afraid of that.
Chandler – technically a two way player, have seen him mocked in our range. He is a two sport athlete with a football scholarship to Clemson, but he could really take off if he starts focusing on one sport.
If you believe the first round is for choosing who might be potential future superstars, the two I would slot as top options are:
1) Peyton Stovall – high school shortstop that most say will be a 2B. Bats left, throws right. Batted .512/.669/1.047 (yes, it’s high school) with an absurd 29.8% walk rate and 4.8% K rate (attributes the Cardinals love). Had 7 doubles, 1 triple, 12 HRs in 33 games. The homeruns were hit in the first two-thirds of the season, and the walk rate is in large part due to teams just completely not pitching to him the last one-third of the season. 60 Grade hit tool according to MLB pipeline.
2) Andrew Painter – high school pitcher. RHP. 60 grade fastball, sits 93-95. 55 grade curveball and changeup. 50 grade slider. 55 Control. Already has four pitches with command. The prototype of want you want in a first round pitcher.
Lacardfan, those seem like two good picks. I’m not up on draft stuff cause I just don’t really have that time but glad to see someone is. Usually though guys with that potential, come with a higher price tag. The Cardinals seem to try to not go that route. To me this is the most important draft we have had in a while. I think getting depth is more important than one possible wow player. But at same time, we have need of some serious talent.
LACardfan, interestingly enough there is a chance we might be in position to draft both those guys if fangraphs rankings are anything to go by. We have pick 18 and pick 70, and at fangraphs Painter is 21 overall and Stovall is around 60.
I think getting depth is more important than one possible wow player.
To me, depth is in the later rounds. First round is, “who is most likely to be a star?”
Traditionally, the cardinals draft 50% pitchers, 50% position players. I can see them going a lot heavier on the pitching this year.
The 2021 draft may be a very unpredictable draft. Gunnar Hoglund (RHP; great control, solid FB, SL, CU) because of TJ surgery may fall into the Cardinals range (18th overall). Jordan Wicks (LHP), Sam Bachman (RHP), Andrew Painter (RHP) each would be a nice first round selection for the Cardinals IF AVAILABLE.
As for a position player, Benny Montgomery (OF) with his athleticism, his physical projectability and tools (run, field, arm, and power) would be a welcome addition at 18th overall.
54th overall: Andrew Abbott (LHP) undersized with 13.5K/9, 2.8BB/9
70th overall: Doug Nikhazy (LHP) if available; if Nikhazy is unavailable, Pierce Coppola (LHP, prep with lots of physical projectability [6′ 8″; 230 lbs.])
90th overall: Eric Hammond (RHP, prep with lots of physical projectability [6′ 4″; 175 lbs.]Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com projects Bubba Chandler to the Cardinals with Gunnar Hoglund as a possibility. https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-june-30-2021?t=mlb-draft-coverage
I know in baseball there are rules against trading draft picks like what happens in other sports where teams trade to move up in draft position, but I read compensation picks can actually be traded or bought. Does anyone else think that would be a smart move for us to try and acquire a pick in the thirties to grab an extra player we like? Maybe we could give up some ifa pool bonus money and a minor league player we don’t have a spot for, like an Evan Mendoza?
Does anyone else think that would be a smart move for us to try and acquire a pick in the thirties to grab an extra player we like? Maybe we could give up some ifa pool bonus money and a minor league player we don’t have a spot for, like an Evan Mendoza?
If the opportunity presents itself, then yeah, we should try to acquire a comp pick. But, most teams realize the value of their draft picks, and are hesitant to give them up, unless it’s part of a larger deal for an impact player.
As for giving up IFA bonus pool money for a comp pick – my guess is you have to give up substantially more IFA bonus pool money than the draft pick slot allocation. The Cardinals have decided they would rather spread their IFA money to multiple players than go after one big signing on the IFA market, so this seems counter to their current organizational philosophy.
Yeah, you are probably right about it going against the organizational philosophy. We’ve traded bonus pool money in the past for prospects like Lane Thomas. But I don’t think we’ve ever done it in a trade for a comp pick.
The reason why I suggested trading ifa bonus pool money is that I suspect our current strategy of spreading the money around to a lot of players who are rated lower probably isn’t paying off. We have struck gold every once in awhile, most notably Oscar Taveras. But the strategy as a whole I wonder about as a lot of the star prospects that were ifa were at least ranked in the top 30 the year they were eligible.
Because of trades, the Cards needs are more immediate now. Look for guys who can be fast tracked through the system.
My draft preference would be that with your first pick you should take who you think will be the best player regardless of how long it might take them to get to the big leagues. Basically, don’t pass on a Jack Flaherty (high school guy) to pick a Dakota Hudson (college guy) solely because a college guy should get here faster.
That said, I think they should prioritize pitching in the first ten rounds at least. If a bat falls that they really like, by all means grab it. But pitching should be the focus.
Thanks for the link, GameCard! I will say that Bubba Chandler does seem to fit the characteristics of a Flores type pick. He’s high upside, a superb athlete with tools you can dream on, a high schooler so potentially more growth potential, seems to have excellent makeup. He seems kind of like the pitcher version of Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker. I know he’s a two way player but he has apparently indicated in interviews he feels his future is on the mound. He will probably be a tough sign since he has a scholarship to play quarterback at Clemson, but he seems to love baseball, so maybe our intel is that he would sign. I’ve seen it reported in a few places that our higher ups have been seen scouting him in person which is why he’s starting to get mocked to us. I imagine we would have to go over slot to sign him.
Maybe look for high school pitchers who can consistently throw strikes at 90 and at 70. If they are college, then strikes at 92 and 72. Start with that and see what pops out at the far end of the pipe.
dac, I really can’t argue with your logic on going after the best player available in the first round but it needs to be a slam dunk because that is where most of your draft money is going. I like college players because not only will they get to the majors faster they also have much more of a sample size, thus decreasing the risk in theory. Some of the elite college programs are basically playing at an AA level. High school players are not facing that kind of competition.
Having said that we have been burned by college pitchers like Gingery and Roberts so that plan doesn’t always work. Have to go with the percentages though. Lynn, Wacha, and Hudson all came out of college.
Some interesting names put out there by VEB. I have to agree with the fist player they mention. I saw Kevin Kopps pitch numerous times in person this year. He was nearly unhittable and was the best pitcher in the nation. I would love for the Cards to get him.
2021 Draft Preview No. 10: Persons of Interest One https://t.co/Cjzj8RMGPb
— viva el birdos (@vivaelbirdos) July 2, 2021
I am curious as to how many Cardinals first round picks are on our active roster right now.
Edit, Flaherty, Carlson and Woodford.
Carlson looks like a keeper, but whether he will be somebody the org wants to keep once they have to pay him is question mark. ie Wong, Lynn (1st rounders somewhere else).
Flaherty was blossoming this year before he went on the IL. We will see what happens when he returns. He was 23-22 before he reeled off the win streak. He may well not be a long term Cardinal anyway.
Woodford has been an OK role player so far. Future as a rotation regular uncertain.
If we are happy with that, lets keep doing what we have been doing.
dac, I really can’t argue with your logic on going after the best player available in the first round but it needs to be a slam dunk because that is where most of your draft money is going. I like college players because not only will they get to the majors faster they also have much more of a sample size, thus decreasing the risk in theory. Some of the elite college programs are basically playing at an AA level. High school players are not facing that kind of competition.
Having said that we have been burned by college pitchers like Gingery and Roberts so that plan doesn’t always work. Have to go with the percentages though. Lynn, Wacha, and Hudson all came out of college.
Gscottar, for most teams I think you are right that preferring a college player with your first round picks is the safer, smarter move historically. There are a lot of stats that back this up as it is common knowledge the bust rate for high schoolers is much higher, particularly for pitchers.
But if there is a difference in talent, I would err on taking who you think is the more talented player as the priority. The Cardinals under Flores have been going for high ceilings who fell in the draft with their first rounders, which for the most part has worked out well. Flores seems to care more about tools and upside than experience. That has served us well with Carlson, Gorman, and Walker. Hudson of course worked out well, but there is reason to be worried about Thompson. I like Flores approach of trying to swing big with our first round picks even if that means taking a high school player because we need young stars to populate our aging roster. I also think the elite high school talents have access to much more sophisticated development than they did in years past, so that bust rate difference may shrink with time.
Unlike the NFL and the NBA drafts – in Baseball the draft is for 3-4 years down the road which does exactly nothing for 2022 and 2023 and not much for 2024 UNLESS you grab a player with idea of trading him for some immediate help.
Any chance the Cardinal’s will think that way?
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