Is it time for a complete rebuild?

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  • #164350
    ZTR
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    So, in looking at the Cardinal’s roster, it appears that there is going to be a whole lot of turnover by next year.

    Flaherty could very well be the only starter back from this year’s ‘rotation’.

    I don’t know that it is reasonably possible to replace 1/3 of the roster with enough talent to compete.

    Are we finally at the point where it is such a mess that it isn’t fixable and we really do need a complete rebuild?

    Goldschmidt is too old for a 3 year rebuild and Arenado may not be interested. It would waste what should be the best 3 years of Flaherty’s career.

    How long would it really take if the Cards offload their aging talent? Rebuilding through the minor league system and draft might be more of a 5 year project?

    #164351
    LACardFan
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    Complete rebuilds are actually not smart. The Cubs and Astros each won one world series (and the Astros had to cheat).

    The Cardinals get a substantial portion of their revenue from fan attendance. If you look at the impact of tear downs on fan attendance, its devastating. It is hard to win back fan trust.

    The Cardinals have a lot of money coming off the books after this year. They can invest that money in pitchers (Scherzer & Lynn, for example). Add a Yimi Garcia and the just released Kyle Barraclaugh for bullpen options, and now you have much more pitching depth. Plus, Oviedo and Woodford should be much better next year.

    If Arenado opts out, you have Gorman waitiing in the wings. Plus, that frees up another $35 million for free agents.

    #164352
    bicyclemike
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    Not a complete rebuild, but it is looking like some realistic changes could be made.

    Carlos was a solid starter early in his career, but is erratic now. I think he is a prime candidate for a “seller” transaction in July. I would also shop DeJong, but his poor production combined with a contract commitment will make it hard to move him.

    Carpenter will possibly make it to the end of the season, but won’t be back. Nor will any of the others whose contracts expire this year. It will be a tough call on the two franchise staples, Molina and Wainwright, but it is probably time to move on.

    It’s going to be tough to make drastic changes until the new CBA is hammered out.

    I think for the rest of this season you put Oviedo and Woodford in the rotation and let them pitch the rest of the season. Go with Wainwright, and hopefully Flaherty as two others in the second half, with Kim, Gant and Martinez making occasional starts, possibly mixed with relief appearances.

    You work towards a 2022 rotation of Flaherty, Hudson, and the kids Liberatore and Thompson. Then in Spring Oviedo and Woodford battle it out, although if one has pitched will this year they would have inside tracks to a ‘22 spot.

    But then of course the club could turn things around and make all that I said nonsense. It’s happened before. That is one of the great things about baseball, you just never know.

    #164353
    LACardFan
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    I think he is a prime candidate for a “seller” transaction in July.

    I’m not sure who would buy on Martinez at this point

    #164355
    gscottar
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    I am going to agree with LA and Mike that this team does not need a complete rebuild. A retool maybe, and we definitely need some reinforcements to the depth. Carp, CMart, Miller, and Kim probably won’t be back next year along with Fowler’s money. Arenado’s salary will hit the books but we will still have enough flexibility to add one premium player, a couple of above average contributors, and some much needed depth pieces. It is the back end of the roster that needs to be rebuilt not the top end.

    I would also invest more money into our strength and conditioning and try to figure out why we get hammered with injuries every year. Without the long term injuries we are in first place right now.

    #164361
    1982 willie
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    No I don’t think we need a total rebuild. I do think our constant need by the front office to stay in contention year after year without being big spenders on free agency has hurt us from an organizational level. Me personally I like the 80s model where we might have a down year or two but then have a really good team for a couple years or so. I don’t believe in tanking and I don’t believe in decade long rebuilds. The 80s teams didn’t set out to not be a winner for one season but they knew when to try to make moves and when not to. Sure I know ownership wants to keep those 3 million fans coming in and sure a real bad losing year could result in slightly less fans but a poorly run organization could result in a lot less fans. So far far as reacting to the season, they have done well. As this team is due to lots of factors, we can’t compete day to day with good teams, so we can’t go crazy and call up guys well before their time or go out do a crazy trade and lose some minor league talent. We need to get our minors built back up and be a little smarter going forward after that. If they do this, a real fan will stick with this team through a potentially tough season, possibly another but know that good things lie over the horizon.

    #164363
    gscottar
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    That is a good analysis willie. I agree with everything you said there.

    #164364
    TexasCard
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    The Cardinals are 17-1 against Arizona, Colorado, Pittsburg, and Florida. The one loss was to Arizona. Those are without question the worst teams in MLB.

    They are 18-34 against the rest of the schedule. Which with or without injuries is very poor and noncompetitive. This is more to do with how this team has been constructed not just this season but for several now.

    You can blame drafting but I don’t. This has been a front office failure that has been developing for several seasons and it didn’t just show up this year. Many, myself included, said they were making a mistake after the Arenado and Fowler deals, when they didn’t continue to fillout the roster and replenish the AAA roster. Bottomline, this has been mismanagement and it’s time to change course. Those that created this mess cannot be trusted to fix it.

    #164368
    PugsleyAddams
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    I bet nobody here has seen the 80’s movie “Lost In America”, starring Albert Brooks and Julie Hagerty. The absolute sleeper movie of all time…..in a good sense. It should go down as a true American classic. Anyway, one learns from that movie that under no circumstances do you ever ever touch the core of the nest egg. Same principal here with our Cardinals…..keep the core of the nest egg intact.

    #164369
    jj-cf-stl
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    ZTR, I expect all FA’s-to-be (5), to be allowed to walk and test the market; Wainwright, Molina, Miller, KK and LeBlanc. I said the same thing last winter and it wasn’t a popular opinion, but it did happen.

    I expect Carp and Cmart to be bought out. There are 7 roster spots right there which can be refilled however by the FO.

    There is also another group who may have some goners off the 40man; Ponce, Williams, Whitley, Moroff, Hurst, Jose Rondon, Quesada, Flores, Thomas, Dean, Nogowski, Waddell and Elledge.

    Regardless of the turnover amount, no-one in our FO will be using the term “complete rebuild”, or they will be looking for a starting 3Bman too.

    #164371
    dac8b9
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    I’m not someone who would be opposed to a full rebuild where we are really bad for a few years. That said, tanking doesn’t work as well with more teams doing it every year and Dewitt would never allow it anyway. The reason I’d be for it though is that it would play into our organizational strengths of drafting and scouting, and would give us access to acquire better young talent than we are normally able to acquire. It would also give us time to reset the roster and get younger and more talented. But it’s a pipe dream with Dewitt and our current tv deal, we rely too much on attendance for revenue.

    #164375
    stlcard25
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    I don’t think there is a need for a full rebuild. I don’t think the talent is the issue right now anyway…with the full roster this team was leading the Central. Sure, it happened on the backs of some weak opponents, but that’s what all good teams do. Once the injuries mounted to the point that there was no ability to plug the holes, that’s when the big downturn happened. We are currently missing the guy who’d be our ace (Flaherty), our expected #2 (Hudson), #3 (Mikolas) and two of the #4-5 guys have missed time (Carlos and KK). Only Waino has been healthy and performed decently. No offense to John Gant, but when he’s your best healthy starter, your rotation is in trouble.

    In the past, the Cards had great minor league depth to help fill in when starters went down, particularly in the rotation and outfield. Now, you can see the result of the hole in the system (due to trades and attrition) and it’s really taking a toll.

    Next year we should have Hudson back, Flaherty healthy and perhaps Mikolas too. Maybe Waino runs it back again, I dunno. But finding a quality starter (hello, Scherzer) will be key and having some development from Oviedo and Liberatore to where they are viable long term candidates would help. I’d imagine they may consider signing a depth arm or two on the market.

    Likewise, the lineup’s susceptibility to right handed pitching will need to be addressed. Gorman is coming, probably next year, which should help (if he has a place to play). I think a lefty slugger would be at the top of the wish list for the team, and someone like Conforto fits even if he’s having a down 2021.

    The good news? The team will have a lot of money to spend. Carlos isn’t coming back except on a low $$ deal. Carp is definitely gone. Waino may not be back, and Yadi may not either. The team’s budget will likely have $50-70M to address holes, and if used wisely could yield a World Series contender right away.

    The point of tearing down is to save money usually, regardless of what teams say…and the Cards are already doing that, so I don’t see the reason for it. Use 2021 to get healthy and see if you can sneak into the playoffs and then 2022-23 for the big run before contracts run out.

    #164384
    Brian Walton
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    There are six first place teams in MLB (obviously). 17 of the remaining 24 MLB teams are farther out of first place currently than the Cardinals (four games).

    Seasons have ebbs and flows. This is clearly a down time. But some seem to think it will continue. IMO, the real Cardinals are somewhere between how they have played this month and the club that had one of the best records in MLB as recently as last month.

    #164399
    1982 willie
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    That is true Brian. But however we were in first place by a good margin so it seems like we are further out than we are. Also it just seems like things are spiraling here. I guess it’s possible we are going to flip a switch and our pitching is going to somehow right itself but I’m not optimistic right now. It isn’t like we are losing close games to good to great teams, we are getting smoked. Also we are losing games to our division rivals so that’s not a good thing. I mean it’s nice to be optimistic so I guess we can wait to analyze but by then it could be so bad, it’s not worth analyzing.

    #164401
    ZTR
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    Again, for starting pitching for next year I would count on Flaherty and maybe one of what we have now Hudson is probably the best bet but who knows how or if he will recover.

    So that’s 3 starting pitchers to find or promote and hope they are good and can stay healthy.

    The line up isn’t clicking, I’d bet on 3-4 new faces there to figure out.

    There are simply too many question marks. I think it’ll take a couple of seasons to sort this out assuming good moves and decisions are made.

    Too many ‘ifs’.

    #164404
    jj-cf-stl
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    If Flaherty, Hudson, Reyes and Gant are all part of next seasons rotation I won’t be disappointed.

    #164406
    kscardfan
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    Shakeup in Management first so that the new Team can evaluate the roster. Then some serious tweaking. Have a bit to work with, but not a lot. I keep Arenado, Edman, Goldy, O’neill, Carlson, Flaherty, Reyes,Hudson, and Hicks. The rest are expendable. Most need to go. Perhaps a more diverse roster if you get my drift.

    #164423
    gscottar
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    #164465
    mspaid
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    There could be some posturing but most of all it is Mo saying what I said before the season started. It’s a throw away year. No moves at the deadline, see what we have in the minors and start again in 22. 2021 is not likely to be a year to remember…get over it and move forward.

    #164479
    bccran
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    If the pitching and defense are good, the offense can be so so. But if not, the offense will need to carry you in some games. Right now the Cards rank 27th in batting average in MLB, and are only one of 4 teams in MLB with an OBP below .300.

    #164486
    blingboy
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    Nobody is going to come right out and say the pipeline went into the toilet on my watch. 2020 provides plenty of smoke.

    #164553
    bccran
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    The 2017 draft and several trades have diluted the upper tiers of the system.

    #164593
    858booyah
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    The trades have hurt more than the 2017 draft but I get where you’re coming from.

    Right now there’s just no mlb ready talent like in years past. Maybe in a year but right now our AAA talent is lacking IMO.

    #164600
    bccran
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    The demise of DeJong and Carp, along with an untested outfield hasn’t helped. We’ll see what kind of move Mo makes near the deadline.

    #164601
    stlcard25
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    Maybe Gorman will play 2B and Edman SS, with Dejong on the move or as an expensive super sub.

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