Home › The Cardinal Nation Forums › Open Forum › 2021 Cardinals MLB Game 82 thread – Thursday, July 1 at Colorado
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July 1, 2021 at 11:14 pm #165301bccranParticipant
.208 now, willie.
July 1, 2021 at 11:27 pm #1653021982 willieParticipantSo what bccran, what are you hitting,0. What did your boy Carlson do tonight, I believe 0.
July 1, 2021 at 11:29 pm #1653031982 willieParticipantWell we walk two batters to give up a walk off homer. At least waino after pitching very well didn’t get the loss.
July 1, 2021 at 11:40 pm #165304Ugh. That’s brutal…
July 1, 2021 at 11:41 pm #165305Ditto that ZTR!
July 1, 2021 at 11:47 pm #1653069 games out now.
Flying into the danger zone now….
July 2, 2021 at 4:44 am #1653092 runs doesn’t win many in Denver.
July 2, 2021 at 5:17 am #165310Between Bader, DeJong and Sosa, two will play and one will sit. So the question is, which way are we better off? Sosa does have the better batting line by a good margin, and given our lack of offense, how do we justify choosing him to sit?
As I recall, the talk as to Bader out was that his return would stabilize the outfield defense even with the weak bat. But while he was out the outfield defense stabilized itself pretty much as Carlson settled in to CF. Still, Bader may up the OF defense, but enough to justify sitting the better bat?
What is the argument for playing DeJong? He does have 6 errors against Sosa’s 0.
My thinking is that since we owe DeJong around $17 Million through 2023 he is not going to be the sitter any time soon. Never mind his offense has been declining steadily since 2017. Bader is an arb guy making around $2 million this year, so it is between him and Sosa. Which gives us the better chance?
July 2, 2021 at 7:29 am #165315bccranParticipantWhat’s Carlson’s BA, willie?
July 2, 2021 at 8:56 am #165323Cranny,
St Louis doesn’t have any players named “Harriett” so pls stick to their given names.General comment to all –
No one likes how the Cardinals are playing. No one. This is the time to channel your inner Jack Buck/Stan Musial and treat other posters with respect.Much appreciated.
July 2, 2021 at 9:24 am #165324bccranParticipantSorry UConn. Didn’t know another way to refer to an under-performer who is turning himself into looking like a girl. It was in poor taste and it won’t happen again. I know better than that.
July 2, 2021 at 9:28 am #165325Thank you.
July 2, 2021 at 9:55 am #165332Sorry UConn. Didn’t know another way to refer to an under-performer who is turning himself into looking like a girl.
So, you are told to clean it up, and this is what you come back with? You apologize in one sentence and double down in the second sentence.
July 2, 2021 at 9:55 am #165333And yet, UConn, he laughs in your face with his response, knowing it will irk some posters in here.
July 2, 2021 at 9:59 am #165334bccranParticipantI’m not laughing in anyone’s face.
I did something inappropriate and apologized for it. To UConn, whom I respect a great deal.July 2, 2021 at 10:07 am #165336As I recall, the talk as to Bader out was that his return would stabilize the outfield defense even with the weak bat. But while he was out the outfield defense stabilized itself pretty much as Carlson settled in to CF. Still, Bader may up the OF defense, but enough to justify sitting the better bat?
Statcast Outs Above Average in CF the last two years:
Bader: +7, 91% success rate vs 87% estimated success rate (+4%)
Carlson: -1, 88% success rate vs 89% estimated success rate (-1%)Statcast does not incorporate missed cutoff men. Carlson is terrible at hitting his cutoff man, which allows baserunners to advance.
Statcast Outs Above Average in RF the last two years:
Edman: +2, 86% success rate vs 84% expected success rate (+2%)
Carlson: +1, 92% success rate vs 90% expected success rate (+2%)Note: While the difference in success rate vs expected success rate is equal, the defense notably improves with Carlson in RF.
Statcast Outs Above Average at 2B the last two years:
Edman: +7, 84% success rate vs 81% expected success rate (+3%)
Carpenter: -3, 71% success rate vs 76% expected success rate (-5%)Based on the data, having Bader back in CF, Carlson in RF and Edman at 2B dramatically improves the defensive outlook.
July 2, 2021 at 10:10 am #165337One way to look at this year is: if this is as bad as it gets .500 +/- we are pretty lucky.
The future looks murky and uncertain though for sure.
I assumed 2021 was going to be a ‘figure out what we have’ year and a fare well tour for Wainwright, Molina, and Carpenter.
The problem now is that it looks as if most of the answers are negative regarding the talent level of the question mark players, the injuries are very concerning, the minor league teams don’t appear to be brimming with talent to look forward to next year, and the general feeling is that we are stocked with overpriced mediocrity everywhere you look.
I’d love to see a 2 year roadmap for the organization with clearly defined goals for each position on the big club….
July 2, 2021 at 10:19 am #165339This team reminds me of our teams in the early 90’s. A few good players capable of keeping us around .500 but never really good enough to accomplish much. Kind of blaise and frustrating.
July 2, 2021 at 10:25 am #165340.208 now, willie.
What’s Carlson’s BA, willie?
Just because something can be measured, does not make it a good statistic. For close to two decades now, it has been realized that on base percentage is a better metric than batting average.
I’ll give an example. Years ago I was evaluating KPIs for a Fortune 500 company. One of the metrics they had was Average Wait Time for an Answer – how long it took someone to pick up the call. It’s easy to measure, and if they pick up within two rings, that’s obviously better than 8-10 rings, right? The problem is, they manipulated the metric by installing that auto-prompt for a call back. The phone is answered, tells you there is a 30 minute wait time, and you can enter your number and they will call you back. Metric looks great! But it does nothing to improve the customer experience from a perception standpoint.
What matters to customers calling in is first call resolution, which they were not measuring at all.
If a Fortune 500 company can understand that First Call Resolution is a superior metric to Average Wait Time, maybe we should all realize On Base Percentage is a better metric than Batting Average.
July 2, 2021 at 10:30 am #1653421982 willieParticipantThere are lots of issues here. The offense is mostly inconsistent and our big name players in particular aren’t producing. In the end that is the real issue. Most teams have some weak links offensively but have their big guys consistently hit enough that it’s fine. Very few teams ever have 8 or 9 guys hitting great at one time. One game back and you got people pointing finger at bader when we haven’t been hitting for quite a while now. What that tells me is some don’t have the slightest clue about the game of baseball. Our big guys are going to have to hit, that’s the bottom line. If that don’t happen, nothing is going to improve offensively. You can put in this guy, that guy, doesn’t matter. Your big guys have to perform.
July 2, 2021 at 10:41 am #165344Based on the data, having Bader back in CF, Carlson in RF and Edman at 2B dramatically improves the defensive outlook.
My point was more to look at pluses and minuses, defense and offense, rather than one side of it. Which will have the greater impact on Ws and Ls, an improved defensive outlook or the defense we have been seeing along with having our best offensive lineup? Will it make enough difference to justify a .210 bat instead of a .260 bat? A .290 OBP instead of a .340 OBP? That needs to be looked at in terms of what has been the bigger factors in the losses, our defense or our offense?
July 2, 2021 at 10:53 am #165345bccranParticipantThe strange thing about this team is that the performance isn’t living up to what
it looks like on paper. DeJong has hit much better. What’s happened? No logical explanation. Edman has hit much better. What’s happened? Not adjusting after the pitchers have adjusted to him? Goldy has hit much better. What’s happened? I don’t buy that age is creeping up on him yet. Carlson is pretty much on track in his development. O’Neill too, now. Bottom line is this team should be doing much better offensively.July 2, 2021 at 10:56 am #1653461982 willieParticipantIf you got somebody hitting very well then you can justify putting him in eve if it weakens the defense a little but it has to be a marked improvement not just a little bit. We don’t have that. I’m the end we have lost as many games this year due to shoddy defensive play as lack of offense. The Cardinals have always been built on pitching and defense and doing small things like base running and situational hitting, that’s what we need to get back to. This year may not be our year sometimes thats just the way it is.
July 2, 2021 at 10:58 am #165347Is it our analytics? Is it our staff not providing the information correctly? Is it our players not utilizing the analytics?
July 2, 2021 at 11:03 am #165349bccranParticipantwillie – I agree that OBP is very important. But there are limitations. How do you compare a walk – to a single – to a bases clearing double. A guy may walk a whole bunch and have a high OBP, but if he’s hitting .220 is that okay? I don’t go to advanced metrics, but I can tell a lot about a guy looking at BA, OBP, Slg.%, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, Ks, runs, RBI, and SB.
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