Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Carpenter and Ozuna both strike out against Edwards on pitches outside the right part of the plate (right side when looking from behind home plate).
Carpenter looked especially bad.
Carpenter tried hitting third last year and it didn’t work. Why did they think it would work this year? I don’t understand their reasoning.
The reasoning is, logically there is no reason a guy should hit better in one spot over another, all else being equal. You could make a case that a guy will see better pitches to hit if he is in front of a super-star caliber hitter. Ralph Houk did that in 1961 when early in the year he flipped Mantle with Maris, and had Rog hit in the 3 slot.
With Matt, it mostly seems like he was primarily used at the top spot when younger and healthier, and after a slow start last year moving him there corresponded with his progression towards his career norm.
But again, since his OBP is his primary value, it makes sense to put him there again and see if he starts to hit more as well as walk.
Doubt I would go that high for Donaldson, but it would depend on what he does this year. If he continues to play in the 5-7 WAR range in ’18, it would be tempting to get him. But you would hope to go only 3 or 4 years on a contract.
In the early seasons of Matt’s career he was a 5 WAR player, and one would think he would have kept up that production for a few more years. In 2016 and ’17 he has settled in to more of a 3 WAR guy.
His primary value is getting on base. However, he negates some of that by being a bad base-runner. And of course he would be much more valuable if he was not a negative defender.
As others have said, it’s too early to throw him out. While I think the “can only hit leadoff” thing is bunk as far as any real ability, it makes sense to hit him there. When you have a guy whose biggest offensive weapon is the walk, which is really a passive “skill”, then it makes sense to hit that guy leadoff. You need a more aggressive hitter in the production slots, one who drives in runs and the walks are more due to being pitched around than really working for them. Ironically another place that would work for him is 8th. There would be many situations where he would draw a walk, and give an opportunity to use the pitcher to move him over.
I still like Wong as the every day second baseman. Wong was about as valuable as Carpenter last year in terms of WAR, when you take in to account Carpenter played half-again as much as him. Plus Kolten gives you speed on the bases.
But Carpenter has earned a lot of good will, and deserves the chance get it going. If he really is hurting, no matter where he bats he will struggle. It might be that if he continues to struggle for the next month, he will need some down time on the DL. Fortunately we have some “deep depth” if that happens.
These exciting finishes from the bullpen bring back memories of Izzy.
Or Rosenthal, when he could not find the strike zone.
On Pugs comments about submitting posts, but not having them stick, I have seen that on occasion as well. I have put in a few comments that for some reason do not get posted. Not enough to “choke a horse”, but some here and there.
Carpenter – He definitely is not the hitter he was a couple of years ago. He seems to take the approach that he prefers to walk if at all possible, and he swings only if he has to. And his swing is a little odd – sort of a long, looping swing. Usually you like those short, compact swings like Pham has.
It seems our team, and this may be true around baseball, but it seems we never swing at the first pitch. There have been ABs, one in particular was when DeJong was up with runners on base, where the first pitch is right there and he let it go. It looked like a pitch to mash, but he let it go and was immediately down in the count. I know it’s good to work the count and all, but now and then you need to go up there ready to jump on that first one as a pitcher quite often will want to get ahead in the count.
Carp Fowler and Wong all out today. I don’t get putting Pham 1st.
Yeah, I don’t like that batting order. I would have gone this way with that group:
Bader
Garcia
Pham
Ozuna
Martinez
Molina
DeJong
MunozI was surprised they let Cozart walk. They were not a strong enough team to let one of their better players go like that.
Good to see Munoz whack it. Would be good for him to platoon with Wong until Wong gets it together. He has been pretty worthless so far.
I almost think he should get some playing time and sit Carpenter. I want Wong in there for defense. Carpenter’s game is offense, and when he’s not doing that he is not worth much. He did seem to be on the ball better last night, so maybe he can come out of it and start hitting line drives.
When Gyorko returns, I would like to see Munoz play everyday at Memphis. But then Memphis has a nice infield now, so he would knock out probably Mejia or Wisdom from playing as much. Maybe you give Wisdom some work at first base. Nice problem to have though.
It’s amazing how far the Reds have fallen. Growing up in the ’60s and ’70s, I still think of the Reds as a strong team as during those years they were usually a contender. Even up through the early ’90s they were usually a tough team to beat.
Right now, they are the worst team in baseball. I thought when Walt went over there he would get them back on track, and they did make a little run when they won the division in 2010 I believe. But they have lost their way. It’s too bad as Cincinnati is a great baseball town, and they have a strong history. Their 1975-76 teams are considered one of the greatest of all time. In those days, you felt lucky to get away with one win in a series against those guys.
Not sure what Ozuna was seeing. Flails away at two pitches just off the dirt to K with the sacks jammed.
No Holland in a save situation. Norris is on.
The way Weaver was going you hoped you could leave the bullpen with 6 outs at most. With our ‘pen in hitters park, this could be dicey. But then we might put a few more up as well.
Wong comes back with a solid sngle to right in the 6th. Good to at least clear Weaver this inning and start the 7th with the top of the order.
Bats come alive! Molina off to a nice start. The guy is aging well, which you don’t say too often about catchers.
Bases loaded no outs, and St. Louis does not score. Wong with a terrible AB – looked over anxious swinging at two pitches out of the zone. He could have been sitting 3-0, but popped up a 1-1 pitch. Weaver than hits into a DP.
Missed opportunities will come back to haunt you, especially when your bullpen is not so good. But so far Weaver is good.
I love how Carp said he’s not a .240 hitter and would change his approach. I guess he meant .240 was too high for him as he still has twice as many K’s as Hits.
That reminds me of when Leo Durocher took over as Cubs manager after the 1965 season and said “This is not an 8th place ball club”. He proved prophetic, guiding the North-Siders to a 10th place finish in 1966.
But I do wonder about Carpenter. He had that great 2013, then noticeably tailed off in ’14. He came back with solid years in ’15 and ’16, but his batting average and slugging has fallen off since. His slow start this year makes you wonder how much his back problems have impacted his production.
Once Gyorko returns, our best lineup might include Jedd, Wong and Martinez at the positions Carpenter is used. Carp might be a guy you use to pinch hit, and spot play now and then. Of course I do not think Matheny would do that unless Carpenter is legitimately injured.
Pujols seemed like a latter-day incarnation of Jimmie Foxx to me when he was a Cardinal. He still is similar in some ways, as Foxx came up with the Philadelphia Athletics and had his best years there, then later played with the Red Sox. He had some good years in Boston as well and his numbers did not drop off much, but he played roughly 40-45% more as an Athletic than Red Sox. Yet his HOF plaque has him in a Red Sox hat.
Unlike Foxx, Albert has fallen way off in production for his second team, but as time goes on it could very well be that his St. Louis days will be more of a dim memory by the time he is Hall eligible, and he will go in as an Angel. What I think will really tip the scales is if the Angels get into a World Series and Albert has a good post season during that run.
Checked on Albert’s start this year, and it is pretty much the same old story. He is hitting .274 with a couple of homers; OPS is .716. He is what the modern baseball stat gurus call a “replacement player”.
Gotta do something about the anemic offense.
Some of that is the early season cold weather. We came to life in Milwaukee, which is a more offense-oriented park with a roof.
I am not worried about the bats, other than maybe Carpenter. He is showing a downward trend in his career, to where his primary value has become drawing a walk. You need more than a “walk guy” in the 3 spot.
That was a weird injury. You always hate seeing anything like that happen around the Achilles tendon area. Hopefully it is a minor annoyance to Martinez, and he is available to pinch-hit for a couple of days, and get back out and play after that.
Wish Gyorko was on the active roster. It would be good to get him in there for a few days of regular work. Plus Munoz really needs to play every day in Memphis.
I was a bit surprised to see Holland come in for the 9th. It was a tough game to make your debut after a short spring training – tie game, cold weather. But then he must have looked good in his tune-up games at class A.
Still, a weak bullpen is one reason I felt our club would struggle. There is a good chance the ‘pen will get better as the season progresses. If Gregorson and Holland pitch like their career norms, and Norris, Tui and Lyons can be serviceable, we could have a strong bullpen by say June.
But then there is always the Matheny overuse/misuse factor at play. Right now it’s tough to be too harsh about that as there are really no strong options. Norris is about it. I really like Tui. He’s got a good fastball and that breaking pitch is awesome, but he needs to get better command of it. Once (if?) he does, he could be a standout closer.
Agree with comments here about needing to stretch the starters out whenever we can. You really want to get at least six innings from the starters, which gives some nice options over the last three innings. Trying to get more than 12 outs from a bullpen is a challenge, and doing it right now with our bullpen is almost a guarantee of additional runs.
The offense is not doing it’s part either. The top three hitters are all under-performing. Carpenter seems to have lost a lot over the last couple of years. Maybe all of the moving around on defense gets to him.
I would like to see a five man bench with one guy able to provide some punch on occasion. If the bullpen strengthens and we have four guys you can always count on, then maybe we can cut back to 12 pitchers and add a good bat to the bench.
Shades of Dizzy Dean? Lets hope Sherriff does not suffer the same fate as Diz after his broken toe – altering his delivery and hurting his arm.
Carpenter is a liability on defense where ever he goes, so that is a given. Martinez is the same, but has been carrying a hot bat and at least at first base he should be able to glove many somewhat errant throws.
Best if we can have Gyorko at third and Wong at second, but then you have the issue of where to put Carpenter and/or Martinez. We are pretty much committed to DeJong and Carpenter playing every day, which will cost us on defense.
Shaky bullpen, shaky infield defense – tough to see this as much more than a .500 team at this point. Although we have only played 9 games, this is about what you would expect from our club as it is currently constructed.
My personal nickname for Walker is “On”, as in Taijuan “On” Walker. Hopefully the Redbirds tie on his first loss of the 2018 campaign.
Some Sunday notes….
Might be a good time to give Pena a start behind the plate.
It’s looking like Jose Martinez has a lock on the first base job, making Carpenter sort of a high class utility man. Gyorko would be in the same place as Carpenter once he returns. Wong could end up being the odd man out, and I have always thought he could be a real good player at some point. Then you have Garcia and Munoz, although I think Munoz will eventually be in Memphis for every day duty this year. Who knows how it all will play out.
Norris could evolve as a real good set up guy, once Holland is on the club and in a groove. Or maybe they go the other way around, depending on how Holland does once he starts getting opportunities.
You wonder how long the club will put up with Brett Cecil. Once he is back on the roster, I think he has to produce, or he will either be dealt away around the trade deadline, if there are any takers, or DFA’d sometime during the season. A lot of moving parts to that though, including how other pitchers are performing. Cecil would need to keep pitching incredibly bad to cut him loose, but so far he has not shown any reason why you could use him other than in blowouts.
Can the Pirates keep it going? They lost yesterday, but they have a good group of young hitters in Frazier, Polanco and Bell. Add in holdovers Harrison, Marte and Mercer, with Cervelli a pretty good catcher and that is a nice core. Like our team, it will all come down to pitching with them.
Piscotty and Grichuk struggling early in the other league. Grichuk is not a surprise. What-you-see-is-what-you-get with him. He’ll run in to a few pitches and turn some heads, then strike out the next three times. I expect Piscotty to get it going and have a good year though.
The most amazing performance of Warren Spahn’s career might be the 16 inning marathon he and Juan Marichal hooked up in when Spahn was over 40. The 1963 game saw both future Hall of Famers throw shutout ball for 15 innings, with the game ending in the bottom of the 16th on a home run by Willie Mays.
Spahn was something else. One of my favorite all-time pitcher seasons is 1965 Don Drysdale. It was his fourth consecutive year of over 300 innings pitched. He went 23-12 with a 2.77 ERA. He also lead the team in OPS, and hit 7 homers in only 138 plate appearances. The team leader only hit 12 that year (two guys tied with 12, Jim Lefebvre and Sweet Lou Johnson).
He was sort of an Ohtani before it has become such a big deal this year.
The ’65 Dodgers almost had a 3-man rotation, with Koufax, Drysdale and Osteen all starting at least 40 games.