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Good comment, LB. I did not realize that, and obviously management was not concerned with the drop off when they gave him the deal. Reminds me a little of how Mark Mulder faltered in the second half of 2004, but we made the big deal for him anyway, which turned out to be a bad one.
Hopefully Piscotty proves to be a player, but it was tough watching him this year as he was just plain bad most of the time, offensively, defensively, and on the bases. He did have that game real early where he got hit in the head three times I believe. Maybe that sort of set the tone, along with his off field stress. Watching on TV (albeit not a great way to really get the feel of the game or team), he seemed to just not be into it – going through the motions in other words.
Martinez was terrible in the outfield, but I thought he handled first base pretty well. The key to playing first is developing good foot work, and he seemed to pick that up pretty well, especially for a guy that looked awkward in the outfield. For Martinez to have a decent major league career, I think he has to either play first base or be a DH. His value greatly diminishes when he is in the outfield.
Giving Martinez a shot to win the first base job is not the worst choice to be made. There may be better options come next Spring, but that is definitely something for management to keep in mind.
Management is obviously changing Matheny’s direct reports, to see if that helps the club break out of the mediocrity. If the trend line continues to be flat or downward, Mike will be gone sometime in 2018.
I expect Mabry will be let go as well. Tough business, although field personnel are highly compensated and work under a contract, which usually is covered if early termination occurs. That is a better gig than most of corporate America.
Saying the Cardinals first base WAR was 5.9 is a little misleading when talking about Matt Carpenter. Carpenter had a 2.9 WAR for the season. He finished just ahead of the 2.8 posted by Lance Lynn on the Cardinals. Tommy Pham lead the club at 6.3 (all of this is per baseball-reference). Rizzo was at 4.3 for comparison, and all-world Joey Votto was at 7.5.
Carpenter is still a decent player, but the Cardinals needed a difference maker in the middle of their lineup in 2017 and Carpenter did not bring that. He would be fine as our first baseman and lead off hitter if we got production that is often traditionally provided by a first baseman, from another source. Pham held his own primarily as the left fielder. Gyorko was at 3.9 at third, and that was in only 481 plate appearances (Carpenter had over 600).
So when you look at the traditional power positions, corner outfield and corner infield, at least for 2017 first and right field is where we were weakest.
On a side note, I think Gyorko is better than many here feel he is. People seem to prefer him as a “super-sub”, but he is pretty darn good and might fill the need at first base should we somehow acquire a guy like Machado.
I am sure the Cardinals will try to make some changes, as they most likely think that tweaking and banking on some under-achievers to come back next year sends a bad message to the fan base. Time to try something different.
As for Adams, he was little bit like Pham. He was always a pretty good hitter with some pop, but had a lot of injury issues. I was never as high on him as Pham, because I like the athletic all-around player better than the more burly-type player, but Adams can hit when healthy.
I am okay with Fowler. He can be a good fit for this team, and provide leadership as long as there is enough around him to compete. He should probably play left field, but can still play center if needed. The issue with him in center though is you have two older, declining players at key defensive spots (catcher and centerfield). Most winning teams have strong core players in those spots, and the middle infield.
The Yahoo guy puts Matheny at 50/50. Despite the decline, and the fact that Matheny is roundly criticized around baseball insiders as one the weaker strategists among the manager fraternity, I figure him a solid 80% chance of staying. I think management sticks with him another year, and will asses things after the 2018 season.
However, maybe there is more to this clubhouse discord stuff than we out here in the bleacher know.
Not sure where management is on frustrations about this past season, but my biggest gripes were these:
1. The whole “can only bat leadoff” stigma on Carpenter. Matheny played into that as well.
2. Piscotty’s major decline after inking a nice deal. My last straw with him was the abysmal strike-em-out-throw-em-out nonsense he pulled in the final week, letting a fat 3-2 pitch go for strike three. Heck, you learn in little league, or at least by high school to protect that runner, so you should be looking to swing even at pitches out of zone. That just showed his head was not in the game, and it was that way all year with him.
3. Diaz losing the ability to hit the ball where it’s pitched. It got so bad he would try to pull pitches that were in the left-hand batter’s box.
4. Tacking on to the Piscotty comment, a general lack of an intelligent hitting approach. It seemed that far too often, guys would take pitches that they had a good chance to square up, and swing at pitches where you would be unlikely to put good wood onto it. Did Mabry ever address this?
5. CMartinez not stepping up and being consistent enough to be a true ace.
6. Management’s disinterest in working on a deal to retain Lynn. They look at him “blocking” someone who they think will be better, rather than building the strongest and deepest pitching staff they can.
7. Cecil and Oh both faltering.The Cardinals traded for Fowler to be a catalyst at the top of the lineup, like he had been with the Cubs. Carpenter was asked to be an effective #3 hitter. The fact that he failed in that role was as big of a problem as anything else this season. The front office is not happy about that.
This has been my gripe all season, and is one of the big reasons the Cardinals stagnated on offense. Carpenter and Piscotty equally share most of the blame for the less-than-planned offensive “production”.Now most likely had Matheny stuck with Carpenter at the 3 spot, his numbers would have been about the same as they were for 2017. He did have fair power in terms of doubles and home runs, but you want a guy who hits consistently better than the lower half of the .200s. At #3. Walks are okay, but they are not going to get a guy in from second base and at 3 that’s what you are looking for. Walks to the #3 hitter should be the result of a more passive strategy – in other words they come from the pitcher working around the hitter because he is a threat to cause more damage with the bat (ala Joey Votto).
Now it could be that both Carpenter (shoulder) and Piscotty (injuries, off-field stress) rebound in ’18 due to the issues they had this season. Sometimes you find your solution within the organization, after a calendar year change.
I have always been high on Pham. You could see he always had the speed, power and athleticism. Plus he is a high character guy. His main issue was staying healthy, and getting the chance to play every day.
DeJong is a better glove than Diaz, although he looks like Grichuk at times at the plate. You hope he gets better, but less Ks and more BBs would have given me more confidence.
Weaver looks like he will be a difference maker for a few years, but also looks like a future TJ surgery guy.
A fitting end to our hopes. A 2-1 extra inning loss where an error put the winning run on second base. Matheny trotted out pitcher after pitcher despite each guy going well. Maddon stuck with his guy who was doing the job, which is probably the better approach in an extra inning game. Sort of a microcosm of the season, although we got good bullpen work tonight. Even Cecil had a great inning.
And that might put an end to the season. We’ll see if St. Louis can respond with at least one to keep their dim hopes still aglow.
Don’t like Matheny burning all these pitchers with 1 inning stints. This is a must win gsme. You don’t want to get caught short. There are a lot of guys available, but these guys have been real efficient and could have easily gone more than 1.
Man, what were Martinez and DeJong looking for? Two pitches they could have put a good swing on, and each takes for called strike three.
Strange bringing in Nicasio in the 8th. TV guys speculating, or at least discussing that sometimes other guys cannot go so a managers choices are limited.
What ever happened to those Cub road hats with the red bill? They only wore those a few seasons. I’ve never cared for the blue jerseys. The all-gray is a better look.
Nice game for Lynn. Would have liked to see him go a little longer. He has been a real good Cardinal, and will help somebody next year with his durability and stuff.
Ugh, Piscotty. Pitch was right there and he takes it on a 3-2 count with the runner going. Strike ’em out throw ’em out. Ridiculous.
Most any team that is close, but not quite there could benefit by making a big move. It is easier said than done though. Still maybe it is time to be aggressive. But the cost could be high, with names like Weaver, Reyes, Kelly, Flaherty, Hudson, Bader and others being thrown around as going the other way.
I normally favor trades the other way. Like dealing say Carpenter for a couple of good prospects. We could look to do both – deal an established veteran or two for prospects, then make a splash with prospects for a key veteran.
That sounds like a sideways approach, but depending on the personnel it might be the way to go.
I am guessing you were being sarcastic in your comment about attitude Cranny, as a defeatist attitude would tend to originate from management. Generally attitude, or what we might call corporate culture, is set by management from both actions and example.
That would run counter to your thoughts on Matheny as our field manager, thus I am thinking you threw that out there in a tongue-in-cheek manner.
Fact is though, as I pointed out, the Cubs are a better club than us right now.
Great post J Patrick. My thoughts exactly. Baseball is a game of failure. Not hitting is just how it goes sometimes – most times. Gutless would be failure to hustle, maybe losing your cool and blaming circumstances, stuff like that.
Probably not. But then if we have some key guys have good years, and they have some key guys have off years, then maybe we can stay even or even a bit better.
Not sure that a big move is realistic. People want Stanton, but can that be done without taking a big hit elsewhere? And then can you justify that contract?
Middle management positions tend to do a lot of hands-on people directing, as well as research and analysis. In most traditional business organizations, middle managers are extremely busy – I know having been one. But they do not have highly visible jobs, so the perception might be that they don’t do much. However, reality is different than perception in this area of a business.
The offense and the bullpen certainly were the weak spots in ’17, although both got better in the second half. Bullpens are a bit tricky, as relief pitchers sometimes have bad years followed by good years. So it can be a case of chasing a moving target when building a ‘pen.
On offense, we definitely need to find more production from right field. Maybe Bader can be the guy. Our best outfield next year, assuming we do not bring anyone from outside the organization, might be Fowler, Bader, Pham left to right. We could also use more of a run producer at first base, moreso than an on-base guy that is. Put Carpenter’s numbers on a good defensive middle infielder or center fielder, and you have a nice player. On a first baseman, and you have a passable player when others are providing the run production. Unfortunately we did not have enough run production elsewhere.
I think third base, the other traditional run producing infield spot, is acceptable with Gyorko. You might look to upgrade there, but it would depend on how much you can improve compared to the cost.
It will be interesting to see if DeJong can be as good next year, or better, or if he slips back ala Diaz. We also will need Wong to stay healthy in ’18.
Bottom line, I can see us being better next year without making a lot of moves. But that depends on some younger guys continuing to improve. As a GM, I would be open to dealing Carpenter and Piscotty for a legitimate run producing first baseman, although I do not who that guy might be.
And heck, Carp might be better next year if his right shoulder is 100%. But you still have that “can only bat leadoff” stigma with him.
The difference is not mental, as the Cubs are clearly the better team. Their infield is much better than ours, and they are probably even with us at catcher. Left field might be the only place you could say we are clearly better.
Their rotation is as good as ours, their bullpen better, and they have some nice depth. They simply have it going on right now, whereas we have slipped back into a period of mediocrity. But a year can make a big difference, so who knows what might happen in 2018.