bicyclemike

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  • in reply to: Scott and Saggese provide solid insurance this season #245150
    bicyclemike
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    Yeah, I think you keep Victor down the order for now. Let him get his feet wet.

    Saw he chose number 11, so his jersey will read “Scott 11”, kind of like “Scott II”.

    in reply to: Goldschmidt & Arenado Numbers 2024 #245131
    bicyclemike
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    Good stuff. In general, just thinking out loud and not putting value to salary numbers, I think most reasonable Cardinal fans would say the club has been better with the Goldschmidt and Arenado acquisitions, than they would have been had they not made those deals. Yeah, they make the big bucks. But you need a few of those guys if you are going to compete.

    That value peaked in 2022, with the subsequent quick departure from the post season a huge disappointment. And neither guy did much in their brief appearances to get us deeper into the tourney – Goldy 0 for 7 with 4 strikeouts, Nolie 1 for 8 with 2 strikeouts. Neither guy received a base on balls.

    Our top player in that series? None other than Juan Yepez, 2 for 5 with a homer and no Ks. I think Yepez particularly benefitted from Pujols being on the club. He seemed to regress a lot last year, but that discussion is for another day.

    in reply to: Former Cardinals in the News #245127
    bicyclemike
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    Looks like Boras really mis-read the market for Monty. A one, possibly two year deal for $25M per. Man, we should have been all over that and brought him back.

    But this is really a risky deal for Montgomery, as he only signs for one, possibly two years. He likely won’t increase his value that much in a year, but could easily end up on the DL or just not have a real impressive season. Who knows what kind of offers he got, but this is looking similar to when Lance Lynn turned down the $17.5M he could have gotten when he left us, and signed for quite a bit less with the Minneapolis-St. Paul Twins.

    The D-Backs now have two ex-Cardinals in their rotation, their ace Zac Gallen and now Montgomery. Goldy might be saying, “Heck, if I would have thought my old team would be better than my current team, I would have stayed in the desert.” 🙂

    in reply to: Carlson to IL, Scott promoted #245060
    bicyclemike
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    Coleman came up in May ‘85 I believe. If I recall correctly I believe Lonnie Smith opened the season as our left fielder, but by the end of the year he was playing against us in the World Series as a Kansas City Royal.

    in reply to: Goldschmidt & Arenado Numbers 2024 #245047
    bicyclemike
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    With gscottar’s numbers neither would be a bargain. Goldy at $26M and Nolie at $35M is a lot to pay a couple of vets past their prime. But at 33, Arenado should still be pretty good. He was not horrible last year with 26 homers and 93 RBI. I hope he picks it at third more like he has done in his career. He seemed to lose a step last year when playing defense.

    Goldy at 36, 37 in September, is getting up there. But he has a lot of professional pride and might just surprise us. Also, he shares a birthday with Roger Maris, which has nothing to do with anything but is kind of a cool trivia stat.

    in reply to: Burleson is going to be a fine hitter, however #245041
    bicyclemike
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    If Herrera is in the game as a DH and Contreras gets injured, can Herrera then switch to catcher during the game?”

    I believe he can, but you then have to use your pitcher as a hitter like in the “old days”.

    in reply to: Carlson to IL, Scott promoted #245038
    bicyclemike
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    Man, tough for Carlson. Hopefully McGee has made it clear on outfield communication and how important that is.

    Hate seeing Scott forced like this, but sometimes that ends up being a good thing. Maybe he will show he can compete with the best.

    in reply to: Goldschmidt & Arenado Numbers 2024 #244979
    bicyclemike
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    Agree that I see Arenado as the guy more likely to have a big season than Goldy.

    Goldy has been lost this Spring. But everything starts over on Thursday. I will put them this way as far as batting average, homers and RBI:

    Arenado: .277, 31, 96
    Goldschmidt: .233, 20, 66 (relatively low RBI total assumes he bats second, which seems to be Marmol’s preferred slot for him. But if he does hit .233 he may end up hitting seventh at some point).

    in reply to: Former Cardinals in the News #244977
    bicyclemike
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    I never liked the way the Cardinals handled Hicks. I am not liking them looking at Liberatore as a bullpen guy either. Both of those guys should have always been groomed as starters IMHO. But hey, we will see how all this works out.

    On Palacios, I would have been less concerned had they dealt Burleson. Palacios may not end up being anything special, but as everyone knows I favor athletic guys. That and watching the ball jump off his bat a few times late last season made him a guy that I am following some as it looks like something is there.

    in reply to: 2024 Spring Training game thread #244946
    bicyclemike
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    Perused the box and saw Goldy’s anemic .109 Spring mark. Man, that is certainly a concern. You hope it is not an indicator of a major decline, however you cannot help but wonder.

    Still don’t like him in the 2 spot – but if this carries over to the regular season he will be lucky to be in the lineup at all.

    bicyclemike
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    Tacking on the BR’s post, Mo then deals Winn to Texas for Max Scherzer, and Scott to Houston for Justin Verlander.

    Ollie then makes a statement about “with four future Hall-of-Famers next year, we will win the pennant.”

    1TD then points out how this is yet another silly comment from the skipper, and he just needs to not talk. Especially after he followed up 2023’s “this will help us in September” comment with the phrase at the All-Star break in 2024 when the club was 13 1/2 back, “We feel the struggles to date have put the pieces in place to make a second half surge.”

    in reply to: 2024 Spring Training game thread #244938
    bicyclemike
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    Hope Carlson answers the bell on Thursday. Thinking we should have kept Palacios, but of course hindsight is always easy.

    in reply to: Former Cardinals in the News #244909
    bicyclemike
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    I wonder if we had kept Richie Palacios if he would have won the left or center field jobs. He looked good at the end of last year and has had a great Spring for Tampa.

    I cringed a little when I saw we dealt him for a bullpen pitcher, and an older one at that. Seemed risky given how he came on strong at Memphis and St. Louis last year, and we do not have a lot of athleticism on our roster.

    in reply to: Former Cardinals in the News #244898
    bicyclemike
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    Jack is a political guy. Some organizations may not care one way or the other about that, and others might be more leery.

    Jack should be able to work on his craft while also participating in the MLBPA. But he has not exactly turned any heads the last few years with his mound skills, which does open up the question of what he values more, social issues or his profession.

    in reply to: 2024 NLC Predictions #244862
    bicyclemike
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    Well it starts for real on Thursday people, with seven road games out of the gate. We will start to see what this club is made of.

    The consensus here is mostly a mediocre ball club. My sense is if they are to compete or if there is any excitement this season, it will come from someone who joins the team mid-season; maybe a call-up from the minors or an acquisition. Like maybe a “ ‘64 Brock” or “ ‘85 Coleman” type of player who seems to bring that spark and things gel. Not saying that will happen – but for it to be fun to go out the ballpark it might take something like that.

    As is we seem boring. Mostly slow, old guys and one-dimensional young guys. Pitchers who do not shut the opposition down and some unproven guys.

    in reply to: Ohtani & Gambling #244794
    bicyclemike
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    Yeah, big time sports are walking a fine line embracing gambling. We now have two professional teams in Las Vegas, with perhaps a third one on the way soon.

    Sounds like this story is Ohtani’s interpreter who has the problem, and not Ohtani. And the interpreter has been fired by the Dodgers, so we will see where it goes from here.

    in reply to: 2024 NLC Predictions #244792
    bicyclemike
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    i see Chicago the clear favorite, with the other four all unknowns. They all have younger guys who if they get a couple of them to really mature could be the surprise team. For now I will go this way, without putting numbers on them:

    1. Chicago – came along well last year and look better
    2. Pittsburgh – most are picking them last in the division, but they played well at times and will have Cruz back.
    3. Cincinnati – like Pittsburgh, a young club that had its ups and downs in 2023, but should keep improving.
    4. St. Louis – can’t seem to commit to a youth movement, and are relying a lot on guys who are on the downside of their careers. Have either age or youth, with not enough players in their prime.
    5. Milwaukee – loss of Burnes and Woodruff is a big blow. Also a new manager. A long season in Brew land but a great crop of youngsters on the farm will keep them from being down too long.

    bicyclemike
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    This is always one of my favorite threads of the year. Because I usually expect our club to be pretty good, my bold predictions are normally “the wheels have fallen off” type. Since I expect us to be not much more than .500 this year, if that, I will go wildly optimistic this time around. Here we go:

    – Sonny Gray’s early absence puts the burden of “ace” on veteran Miles Mikolas. “The Miler” answers the bell to the tune of a 17-7 season to go with a glittering 2.92 ERA, and some hardware in the Cy Young award.

    – A bad April spawns rumors of dealing Paul Goldschmidt while we can. A brief benching in favor of Alec Burleson sees Burly go down with an injury after a week, and Goldy is given the job back.He responds with a rousing final four months ending the season with a 133 OPS+, 28 home runs, 87 RBI and a .313 batting average. He’s given a 3 year extension in September with an AAV of $30M, causing many in The Cardinal Nation to think this will be “Matt Carpenter” all over again.

    – And speaking of Carpenter, he becomes the primary left handed DH and responds with a respectable season, .273 batting mark, 18 homers and a .797 OPS.

    – JoJo Romero becomes the closer in June and ends up with 28 saves and a glittering 1.85 ERA. He develops a cult-like following with the stadium sound system playing the Beatles “Get Back” when he enters a game, and after he records the final out fans shout in unison, “Get back Jo Jo!!”

    – The Cardinals final record is second best in the National League, but unfortunately the best record belongs to division rival Chicago. No matter, the Redbirds sweep through the post season with relative ease, losing only two games to cap their 24th pennant (I think that is the right number if you included the 1880s teams).

    in reply to: Burleson is going to be a fine hitter, however #244632
    bicyclemike
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    None of us are 100% sure on this, but it seems the front office has a lot of input into who the manager has at his disposal. I think a part of why Shildt was not retained was that Mike pushed back some on who he wanted on the active roster, and the front office said, “Look bud, we know who should be on the roster – you stick to making game decisions.”

    in reply to: Burleson is going to be a fine hitter, however #244611
    bicyclemike
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    “Strikeouts were/are never an issue, the issue is hitting or his lack thereof with RISP and Runners on base.”

    Over time and with more at bats that will tend to even out. Guys usually end up with similar numbers in the various base situations once they accumulate a representative sample of plate appearances. Whether Burly earns some regular time to get those at bats or not is still to be seen.

    bicyclemike
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    Edman and Donovan are similar in their ability to play good defense at multiple positions, plus provide adequate offense and good speed.

    Brendan has an advantage of being a little younger, while Tommy has an advantage of being a swith-hitter (even though he sometimes bat right against a righty).

    At some point trading one of those guys might be needed. Right now with both dealing with injuries and recovery, we would be selling low.

    in reply to: Burleson is going to be a fine hitter, however #244562
    bicyclemike
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    Let’s stick to the topic, gents.

    I like Burly as an offensive player. And sometimes you just gotta play a guy knowing that you are giving up one faucet of the game for another. Remember Chris Duncan? He would get hot and we played him, but every ball hit to him was an adventure.

    Love those guys that play both sides of the ball, but the part of the joy of the game is “do I put this guy out there hoping he can at least hold his own in the filed and we get a lead, or do I go with my glove guy most of the time?”

    in reply to: Cards v cubs farm systems #244541
    bicyclemike
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    Well said Bob and jnevel. It is good to see that at least compared to the Cubs, the Cardinals are a bit heavier on the prospect pitching side since we have graduated far more offensive youngsters in the last 2-3 years than hurlers. Now we need to get some good, young arms their diplomas, or the next half-decade could be rough for the boys in red – especially if the Northsiders are competitive.

    And it looks promising for those guys with a solid system and a manager who is in all likelihood better than the guy we have guiding the ship.

    in reply to: Blake Snell To The Giants #244540
    bicyclemike
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    A two year deal limits the risk, and the Giants are well financed and will be able to handle whatever happens with Snell. Boras is likely disappointed he signed for only 2 years, but the pitchers are just too risky to go long-term, especially older ones.

    I am still hopefully we can grab Monty on a no-more-than 3 year deal, maybe similar to Gray’s contract. But realistically I doubt management will do that. And heck, maybe Thompson or Libby turns out better over the next three years anyway, although Monty has been there-done that and those guys have not.

    in reply to: Oli Extension #244446
    bicyclemike
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    One metric I look at in a manager is whether his teams tend to run over or under their pythagorean record. Still too early in Ollie’s career with only two seasons, but he ran even last year and was two games under in 2022.

    Long term managers will have seasons going both ways, but my admittedly non-compiled information indicates some guys have quite a few more seasons of being over the pythag number than under.

    Looking at two Cardinal mangers using only their full seasons as manager, Mike Matheny went 2-4; that is two seasons his teams exceeded their “expected” record based on runs scored versus runs allowed, and four seasons they fell under their expected record.

    Whitey Herzog’s tenure was spectacular, 7-0-1. His teams beat their expected record in seven of his eight full seasons, and matched the expectation once. And I did not count the 1981 split season, but that club beat expectations as well.

    Whitey relied on speed, defense and bullpens, maximizing his home park’s characteristics. He employed the squeeze play now and then. Makes sense his teams would win their share of close ones.

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