[thejager]

I’m not saying they WILL, SHOULD, NEED, or HAVE to do anything

I mostly did it to show that IMO we are already a better team than we were last year

the last couple lines on what we COULD do to make us better is only icing…and what if’s…and any ONE of those upgrades would make an already better team than 2017 better

IMO the Front Office has already made us better than last year…is it “enough” to get the division back and compete for a World Series,…can’t say… but the team we put out there last year didnt miss the playoffs by much and competed with the Cubs way better than they did the year before

IMO I believe we have the money and prospects to get the team to be better without sacrificing the future as much as people think…

money spent on Hosmer may be too much and for too long but he would fortify the lineup…same goes for adding Darvish…trading for Archer and Colome or Realmuto and colome would be expensive in prospects…but it wouldn’t gut us to the point of not recovering AND the guys we’d get for them would mitigate the immediate need for them anyways.

if i was in the FO i would feel my job was on the line this year…playoffs are a must or big changes will happen…so i’d be bold…go big and maybe if the moves were big enough but the outcomes wasnt great i’d get to keep my job even if it falls apart due to injuries or poor play or some amazing other team doing amazing things…now would i go stupid? like Machado or Donaldson for the farm no…but controllable assets and good contracts…heck yeah…maybe one big use of money OR a nice combination of moves….

as this all goes back to Arrieta…to me i dont trust him at his age…i liek Darvish better…i might even prefer to take Lynn for big money over Darvish and Arrieta…he is a known quantity after all

trade for Realmuto + Ziegler
– Kelly centerpiece…add in Gomber and Mayers or Gant
(they get their new young starting catcher and a pitching prospect and save a lot of money)
(we get a better backup for aging Yadi who can start at 1b who hits well and defends well and is cheap and allow us a 4man bench, Ziegler even helps with the pen adding to our closer experience guys and longer pen)

trade for Archer
– Flaherty + Helsley + ADGarcia + Derian or Seijas
(pushes Waino to pen or someone else who gets hurt in ST)
(we may have to offer more…perhaps Hudson instead of Helsley)
(they get young high end prospects, we get an amazing pitchiner and contract)
(we lose high end pitching prospects, but not Reyes)

sign Reed
(is de facto closer, while still having Reyes and Hicks if needed to help)

blah blah blah…im babbling again…i should probably stop here and move to the trades thread…

sorry…

to get it back to the topic though

Arrieta (or any other addition to rotation) means a subtraction… moving Wacha might work, Waino to the pen is iffy but not totally ridiculous as it may first seem, Mikolas being a ? is areal thing and his conversion to the pen while not what they said might be an option shoudl he scuffle in his return to MLB, Weaver is no absolute and could start in AAA)

The team IMO is already better than last year…but perhaps not enough seeing as i think the Cubs are going to still add a big time starter…and will probably add some big time talent to their team next offseason (ahem Harper or Machado)…so while we are better lots of other teams we are competing with are better too…OZuna went a long way…Mikolas is a smart move but far from easing our mind and Gregerson’s last year is hard to find solace in when seeing the signing… at least ONE more move seems necessary…2-3 more might make start us off with optimism instead of just “hope” …

Arrieta isa mistake IMO…Darvish seems safer to me…as an upgrade over Wacha Weaver Mikolas or Waino… but for the money i’d rather spend on a known quantity in Lynn or trade prospects for a younger high end guy like ARcher…and spend the money elsewhere…

[thejager]

2018 vs 2017 (as of now)…in my totally off the top of my head forecasting and evaluation!

Lineup: +5.5
-c__Yadi -.5 Yadi
(amazing offense and defense year and no injury.. age/luck probably catches him a little)
-1b__Carp +1 Carp
(he went into the year injured, if not injured he has to be a bit better at least)
-2b__Wong +1 Wong
(doesn’t get much better but stays on the field a bit more)
-3b__Gyorko +.5 Peralta/Gyorko
(hard to see him keep it all going like he did and he tailed off last year, but Peralta stole time)
-ss__DeJong +1 DeJong
(more games means more chances to grow, but we said the same thing about Diaz)
-lf__Fowler -.5 Pham/Grich/Adams (Pham didnt get the full time job right away, healthy Fowler is productive, but matching Pham last year might be impossible)
-cf__Pham +1.5 Fowler
(regression for Pham seems inevitable, but Fowler was injured a lot but still produced)
-rf__Ozuna +3 Piscotty/Grich
(obvious, but even with a little regression it should be a big improvement over Piscotty last year)

Rotation: -1
-sp__CMart +.5 CMart
(maturing Cmart will be a bit better)
-sp__Wacha +.0 Wacha
(good year for Wacha, but ailments are still concern and worry)
-sp__Weaver +.5 Leake
(we Leake wasnt great for us and Weaver hasnt shown a whole year yet…the upside Weaver showed makes me hopeful he gets better)
-sp__Mikolas ??? -1 ??? Lynn
(big loss here as Lynn was a rock, hard to know what we are getting with Mikolas)
-sp__Waino/Flaherty/Reyes -1 Waino
(Waino got bad latem but gave some great performances when we needed him last year…but injuries hit him hard it seems…i’d have gone for a bigger drop off, but the depth of Reyes and Flaherty make the fall off that MAY happen more manageable than last year IMO)

bullpen: +2
-cl__Gregerson +.5 Oh/Rosy
(even if Gregerson is our closer right now he’d be better than what we got out of Oh IMO, but Luke wasnt great last year..he should uptick a little)
-rp__Lyons +1 Siegrest/Rosy
(Siegrest was bad but Rosy was pretty good, and Lyons was pretty great and has been for a while)
-rp__Brebbia +1 Broxton
(Broxton was very poor last year, Brebbia was very good, but a slump shodul be expected)
-rp__Cecil +.5 Cecil
(Cecil wasn’t as bad as everyone thinks last year, but when he was bad he was bad…IMO he is better)
-rp__Bowman +.0 Bowman
(Bowman will be about the same maybe a touch better if we dont use him as much)
-rp__Tuivalala +.5 Socolovich
(Soco was a bust after a good year, but Tuivalala is in the same position make it or don’t, but Tuivalal took some good steps last year)
-rp__Gant -1.5 Lyons
(Lyons was a beast last year in the long man role and more eventually, I havent seen Gant do anything close to what Lyons has done to make me think he can step up liek that)

bench: +1.5
-b-c__Kelly +1 Fryer
(obvious but backup catchers can only help so much)
-b-of__Grichuk/Bader +.5 Grichuk/Pham
(about the same but i think in a pure defined role for Bader or Grichuk they will be a bit better)
-b-mi__Garcia +.0 Garcia
(Greg Garcia is who he is, he isn’t old enough to get worse, if he played SS better i’d feel better)
-b-ci/mi__Valera/Meija/Yairo -.5 Gyorko/DeJong/Diaz
(tough to not see our super sub spot being worse than the good options we had last year)
-b-1b/of__JMart +1 Adams
(JMart is much more capable as a pinch hitter IMO and more versatile and seems to be coming on strong)

TOTAL: +8

Hard not to see this year as being better than last year overall…add in a way to shuttle Gant back to the minors for an upgrade in the pen…and see if you can push Carp or Gyorko back to the super sub spot on the bench and you have a pretty BIG upgrade….if you added in a way to push Waino to the pen or a safety net for Mikolas we get EVEN better

at the end of the day it spells out what we want to get better at and what we all seem to see
-a good bat that moves Gyorko or Carp back to the bench makes us better in the lineup and the bench…doesnt have to be Donaldson or Machado or a world beater, just a solid hitter that can help protect Ozuna or anyone else a little…i’d prefer a high average guy that hits doubles..like a late career Rolen
-a quality closer pushes the bullpen to having more stability and doesnt force Brebbia, Tuivalala, Lyons from being amazing)
-a starting pitcher of good quality (2 or up IMO), takes stress off everyone from Cmart down

sign Hosmer and trade for Archer and Colome
or
trade for Colome, trade for Realmuto, and sign Darvish

it’s never that easy of course

[thejager]

That’s the thing though…we could offer more for realmuto…and also taking on Ziegler’s contract is far from nothing…even if it is only one year…i’m quite sure they’d love to pocket an extra 10mil

I agree the fit is out of the ordinary with Realmuto, he doesn’t scream “the answer” at 1b but he is solid and young and would fill the role for a more steadier bat in the lineup to pair with Ozuna

the fact that he is cheap, provides flex on bench and pen, allows for Kelly to be moved, safeguards us much better at impact level catcher depth than Kelly, provides GG level defense and actually has good running ability is pretty great extras, and costs just about the same as Kelly

is he really that much worse than Hosmer offensively? I get that his defense at 1b is hard to ascertain with his limited time there, but all indications seem to be he is legit there

I used what i wrote as a quick and dirty example of a trade for him
they had interest in Wacha in the Stanton deal i believe…he steps in day one in the rotation
same goes for JMart but i didnt include him…so instead i put Voit because i liek JMart but take him out
i added a good replacement catcher that still rates high for the long term in Jeremy
i threw a lottery ticket in …btu the name doesnt matter…but take it out…or leave it…mayeb make it bigger Seferina or Sosa?

add Gomber in along with Gant or Mayers

Realmuto + Ziegler and his contract
for
Wacha, Gomber, Seferina, Jeremy, Gant

they could probably add Wacha, Gant to the rotation immediately and maybe even Gomber
Seferina and JEremy are longer term but quality

The Marlins rotation is in shambles…after Straily and Urena..i think every guy is a question mark
Wacha is their #2 immediately IMO, and Gant and Gomber challenge Conle and Despaigne for the 4 and 5

If the Marlins want to get through the season they need more pitchers….we can give them that without killing us… (as long as we then turn Kelly and more into Archer and Colome that is)

Kelly is going to sit on our bench all year and play 3 times in two weeks…i like him a lot…but it’s a waste IMO…swapping Kelly and Realmuto (by way of other upgrades) makes a lot of sense IMO…Realmuto can play 1b now and has already proven he can be a good hitter in MLB… Kelly has kind of proven he can play as a backup catcher in the bigs…but has yet to prove he can hit or play every day (not necessarily his fault)…i’d rather my backup to Yadi (in a year where we are trying to win) to be someone we can depend more on…and if we coudl also have that guy be a guy good enough to be playing 1b every day for us too that is a bonus in many ways

I get that Realmuto isnt very sexy but i dont get why the concept of him as a target for 1b is so universally panned…he is a good player and woudl probably be better defensively at 1b than Carp and perhaps his equal offensively outside of taking walks

[thejager]

Id be fine with a trade of Stroman and Osuna…. or a trade for Osuna and a trade for Archer separately

[thejager]

i guess they arent as bullish on the rotation as has been stated

I wouldnt mind Arrieta but again…i am worried about paying too much for past success of an older player (which in all honesty is only really a few good years of success)

I’d rather trade prospects for Archer and Colome and spend money next offseason with the savings…

i am a fan of snagging a good #1 or #2 for this rotation though…Arrieta at a steal of price would be fine with me…but if he is going to take a lower amount id bet he goes with the Cubs

[thejager]

Brian…

Realmuto can play 1b…he can start there…and he is probably at this poitn an equal of Yadi at catcher as his backup…

-Realmuto provides the ability to get a good hitter (3.6 WAR, 109 OPS+, 240TBs, .280+ + 15 HRs + decent footspeed on bases)
– he provides GG level defense at catcher and a MLB ready fill in for Yadi as he ages, and good defense at 1b (when he has played it he has played it well) defensive WAR just under 1 (for a total of around 5 WAR…Hosmer’s total WAR was less than Realmuto’s…Hosmer was better offensively and much worse defensively -1.6 dWAR for Hosmer…even if at different positions…Realmuto’s 3.6 WAR vs Hosmer’s 4.8 and -1.6dWAr makes the discussion about worth valid IMO)
– also he is 27 and cost controlled and not a FA until 2021….he is in his prime and we dont have to keep him after his prime if we don’t want
– ha also allows for the trade of Carson Kelly when his value may be highest…and our needs may be highest
– it also frees up a bench spot without using a reliever spot
– the money savings lets us still be in play fora big FA next year

compared to Hosmer he isn’t as great offensively, but he also won’t cost 8 years and 160million….the difference in output vs money invested easily outweighs the difference

instead of signing Hosmer for huge money and signing Arrieta and Holland for huge money..we may be able to trade for effective replacements without gutting the system entirely…and what we do lose we gain back in cost controlled young players. The loss of prospects is dear but is mitigated by the level of players we get back and the contracts and/or control they have

IMO Realmuto IS a legitimate target for 1b

[thejager]

Happy New Years folks!

i posted this earlier but I am very interested in Realmuto

frees us up to trade Kelly and provides better depth at catcher….
he can play 1b legitimately
woudl move Carp to 3b to platoon with Gyorko which might be a decent idea as lefty righty
frees us to have 8 in the pen and 4 on the bench without a wasted spot for backup catcher
he is a good bat

he would require a decent prospect or two to get… but in the money savings by not investing in Hosmer or Moose we could add on Ziegler and his contract…it’s only a year and woudl bring the Realmuto price down a bit…maybe a deal of JEremy Martinez in that deal woudl make it work for them to replace Realmuto long term….

then trade Kelly and others for Archer and Colome

so maybe:

Realmuto + Ziegler
for
Wacha + Jeremy + Voit + Lottery ticket? Yepez etc.?

Archer + Colome
for
Kelly + Flaherty + Grichuk + Woodford + Derian G. + lottery ticket..Plummer?

go with:
-Archer, CMart, Weaver, Mikolas, Waino (Reyes, Hudson, Gant waiting) (swapping Waino and Reyes for 2019)
-Carp/Fowler, Pham, DeJong, Ozuna, Realmuto, Fowler/Gyorko, Yadi, Wong
-Colome, Gregerson, Lyons, Cecil, Ziegler, Brebbia, Bowman, Tuivalala
-GGarcia, Bader, JMart, Gyorko/Carp

and we still would have plenty of money to play with for 2019

[thejager]

Realmuto is pretty interesting to me…ive described it before… but if we can snag him that would be a pretty snazzy move…especially if we could move Kelly as a centerpiece in a deal for Colome and Archer

-Realmuto can legitimately play 1b and catcher (GG level catcher at that)
-while also being our backup catcher (or timeshare catcher)
-he provides an even better backup to Yadi if Yadi goes down
-He is cheap and young
-hits well with decent power and average
-woudl slot in nicely in the middle of the lineup
-having the backup for catcher be a starter at another position is very strategic and valuable for a team with concerns about having enough bench and relievers…we could go 8 and 4 in the pen and bench with all 4 bench players being real hitters….and it maximizes the use of the 25 man…not having any players that “cant” be played

I love Yelich but i think our OF is set…and has plenty of depth…Realmuto might be a legitimate STEAL for value….he wouldnt be called on to be THE hitter and his nice all around game woudl play well in the lineup and also give it more flexibility

[thejager]

Holland at 2 years would be great…but it wont happen…

Colome still seems the smarter route…we have other youngsters who might turn into big late inning types…so if colome struggles or would need demotion or just gets too expensive we could have help

I dont want Holland becoming another Broxton

I hate when we sign guys a year or two late…

we did it with Mark Ellis….Broxton was a bad buy too…I am worried about Gregerson as well…paying for past performance is part of the game… but as guys get older to me that part of the equation should go way down…and instead look to very recent behavior….and to me… Holland’s second half was not a good sign…his good first half made up for it..but i dont like that trend…especially with an older guy…

[thejager]

i guess i am the guy… wins are a terrible indicator of a good player…especially one on a team that is in the AL East…. TOR, BAL, BOSOX, NYY all have been and are pretty intimidating,,, veen when TB had a few good years Archer still held his own

200 innings nad over 200 K’s in the AL east… AND has an amazing contract…and the guy isnt that old…

Archer plus Colome mega deal..to shore up pitching for not just this year

then spend some cash on a hitter taking advantage of the low salary cost of Archer and Colome
Hosmer works… though his price range and years is getting a bit troubling…though SD and KC arent exactly primed for long term success.. StL has that ability…

[thejager]

I disagree. And I think across the league he is considered an Ace

And his performance to contract value makes him worth even more.

[thejager]

1 WAR is worth approximately 8mil per year.

Fowler was about 3 WAR in an injury laden year

Fowler’s salary is 16.5 last year

That would be 24 million value

Seems a bargain with his performance

Also his defense may not be great but if you think it wasn’t hampered by his foot unity then you are being bias.

[thejager]

Ok

So I’m signed up for 3 more months then?

[thejager]

Thanks for the quick response

So I don’t need to do anything?

[thejager]

Yes Archer is an Ace. And a move to NL would only make him better. He’s rip through the NL central

Having to deal with tha AL and specifically the AL eat for your entire career will always move those numbers higher.

Over 200 Ks pretty consistently while being on a mediocre team with mediocre offensive support is pretty good

Yes he is an ace. And for the cost he should absolutely be a priority

Giving up Reyes and Hudson and Kelly with a few others would not set us back 2 yrs let alone 5

If we trade Kelly we have Knizner long term and we’d sign a veteran FA catcher undoubtedly.

Also everyone is so concern d about having this amazing catcher backup but no one gets upset about not having a legit backup SS

Reyes Hudson replaced by Archer and Flaherty and Weaver

2018
2019
2020

CMart Archer Wacha weaver Mikolas Waino
CMart archer Wacha weaver Mikolas flaherty
CMart archer Wacha weaver Flaherty

We’d have 2yrs to develop the next rotation candidate and even then it’d only be for the 6th starter

[thejager]

Brian. I got an email saying my payment for cardinal nation was canceled. Can you explain? What do I need to do to make sure it all Ian taken care of?

[thejager]

I disagree about Darvish..i dont see where we have shown any interest in him…and i dont think they want to cozy up that close to the luxury tax threshhold

Archer Colome and Hosmer would be plenty…then you bank on one of your remaining young starters (after the Archer Colome deal) to pan out long term

I think CMart Archer is a good 1 2 punch…then Weaver Wacha Mikolas fight it out for being our number 3 with the loser being just fine as a #4… having 2 legit high end at worst #2s and 3 #3’s is a fine strategy for putting together a rotation…doesnt depend on any one player ruining the staff with an injury or down year

[thejager]

agreed… and with the recent news about the O’s probably pulling him out of a trade and the owner not approving one anyways it seems relatively dead…

though i did just read that the Cubs in their discussion about MAchado had talked about Russell, Almora and Montgomery…not necessarily as a package but those names were talked about…

for us what would the equivalent names be? Wacha? DeJong? BAder?Grichuk?

and they said they wanted 2 young controllable pitchers anyways…seems a non starter…

if they’d take Gomober and Helsley or Fernandez I’d consider it…

[thejager]

Donaldson probably has 2-3 more good years…i dont see the fascination with trying to get him…had it been last year before the trade deadline I would have been happy to deal for him (he woudl have gotten us into the playoffs with his second half)…i’d have been fine (and i was an advocate) with a move invovling propsects for him…but for one year and a compensation pick and HOPES of re-signing him i dont see it…especially when 5yrs is what it will take to keep him i’d think…and at 32 that is crazy IMO

[thejager]

If your satisfaction with the team and it’s goals and accomplishments rests in moving Fowler i think you might be in for some disappointment

it won’t happen, there has been zero indication of it happening outside someone hypothesizing a trade to the Jays and the very early offseason mumblings saying no one is safe outside Molina…

and before you an type “Well what about Leake?” well what about him? we had to eat money just to move him…and whether you like him or not…take off 5 million per year of the contract or whatever it will take to move him and you start have a bargain player even with his injured foot and “poor” defense… moving him is a bad business move considering his effectiveness last year even with the poor play… giving that bargain level production to another team not only helps THAT team more than ours but because of that you are hurting our team by putting production into the hands of opponents

I dont like the length of the contract I dont like the money on it either… but making ultimatums about the teams future based on the movement of one player seems pretty pigeon holed

there is ZERO way to prove the team would be better without him

[thejager]

We arent getting Darvish…. i have heard ZERO talk about him even considering us nor our interest in him… he has had several meetings with teams and i have heard zero about him meeting with StL…nor StL wanting a meeting

at least we heard SOME rumblings of Arrieta…

trade for Archer and Colome and sign Hosmer and a FA backup catcher…

Hosmer doesnt have to be the answer to the offense as Ozuna is here…and both mitigate either from feeling pressure

Archer is cheap and VERY VERY good and still young enough to not be in decline at the end of his reasonable contract (11mill)..he will outperform his money easily…ARcher’s ERA and low win total is a reflection of poor offenses and being in a crazy offense division

Colome is young and cheap and has shown he can do the job when called on

Hosmer at 20mil…seems high but will be what is required…even at 6yrs he still ends his career at 34 and only barely touching normal decline age….WAR is worth about 9million so he only needs to be a 2 WAR type guy to be worth his 20million

Archer and Colome are worth top end prospects…ability, age, control, and performance are all top notch…the Cardinals prospects we’d lose MAY be good enough to carry the team in a few years…but this team is trying to fix itself right NOw…not in 3 yrs…. the plan seems to fix this NOW… the prospects are nice but they are hopes… Reyes + Kelly + Grichuk + Hudson + Gomber + Tuivalala
I’d prefer Kelly, Hudson, Wacha, Grichuk, Fernandez, etc….. but i dont see how we get them without including Weaver or Reyes… the deal would be giving up a lot of good talent…more than most would feel comfortable with…but that would the cost of getting such good players that have almost zero downsides to them and proven performance… suck it up and move on…

we are dealing to win now…we have plenty to do that and still have good prospects that will be left…the cupboard would be far from bare

[thejager]

With taking on Longoria’s reasonable contract no longer a possibility of making a deal with the Rays easier in theory… are we now done with the Rays?

I hope not…i still want Colome and Archer and we have the guys to get them
then sign Hosmer once his price comes down a bit (seems already happening) and call it an offseason

team would be revamped and ready for a good two year push while letting a new crop of prospects mature to replace the ones we have lost

[thejager]

I think Carp could be fine out there if pressed into need… but his arm is not suited for it

if people thought Jon Jay’s arm was bad for the outfield they’d be praying for him over Carp IMO

[thejager]

yikes… Longoria’s contract wasnt that bad….i kind of wish we would have talked to the Giants about a Gyorko Arroyo swap

[thejager]

Darivsh had a “Very good” meeting with the Cubs….i think that deal is about to go down

Darvish, Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Chatwood is pretty darned good… especially with Montgomery,Smyly,Butler behind them

If we can add Archer…i think we could deal with it…but without a big SP or one of our kids growing up REALLY fast i dont see how we compete

CMart = Quintana
Mikolas = Chatwood (push there for now as the Cubs wanted him so bad and instead went with Chatwood)
Weaver < Henricks (but maybe not by a ton)
Waino <<< Lester (and i think that is being very kind to Waino after the end of his year…but hey they are both older SPs…maybe this is the year LEster declines)
Wacha <<< Darvish (VERY nice to Wacha here)
and for giggles…Reyes (in July)<< Darvish

At best we are pretty unequal…but adding ARcher evens it up a bit…then you hope for big steps forward from Weaver…and Mikolas is inspired…then it starts to even out much more

I figured they’d add one…i just didnt think they’d take Darvish or ARrieta…instead going with Lynn or a next rung down guy and “develop” Montgomery or Butler…

ugh…now i want Archer more than ever… mayeb even more than i wanted Stanton

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