Jake Arrieta free agent thread + Darvish to Cubs

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum Jake Arrieta free agent thread + Darvish to Cubs

This topic contains 176 replies, has 24 voices, and was last updated by bicyclemike bicyclemike 1 year, 3 months ago.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 177 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #41083
    Avatar
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I started this thread because buried in this article is this paragraph:

    Looking ahead, the Cubs have a renewed interest in bringing back Arrieta, sources said. Arrieta, who turns 32 in March, had a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 30 starts in 2017. The two clubs showing the most interest in Arrieta are the Cubs and Cardinals, according to one industry source.

    http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2018/01/02/cubs-2018-needs-additions-arrieta-darvish-cobb-yelich/

    #41098
    Avatar
    thejager
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    i guess they arent as bullish on the rotation as has been stated

    I wouldnt mind Arrieta but again…i am worried about paying too much for past success of an older player (which in all honesty is only really a few good years of success)

    I’d rather trade prospects for Archer and Colome and spend money next offseason with the savings…

    i am a fan of snagging a good #1 or #2 for this rotation though…Arrieta at a steal of price would be fine with me…but if he is going to take a lower amount id bet he goes with the Cubs

    #41118
    Ratsbuddy
    Ratsbuddy
    Participant

    Free

    He’s trending downward after his amazing 2015 season. If he wants 2-3 years at a fair price i’d be okay with that. Anything more and its very risky. Arent we pretty much set with our rotation, especially once Alex Reyes is back and able to go 6-7 innings on a consistent basis?

    r/Rat

    #41133
    Avatar
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Archer makes no sense for the Cards. Why tie up a rotation spot for the amount of years he wants? With Reyes and Flaherty in the wings we’d be looking to trade him next year. Plus he ain’t that great anyway.

    #41135
    Avatar
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Arrieta is intriguing but who would he replace to start the season, Mikolas? We just flew the guy in from Japan. I think getting another OFer to replace Fowler is more important. We have the guys that we’ve been waiting for right now, Bader and O’Neill. Bring the younger guys in so this team won’t be as boring as it was in ’17.

    #41137
    Avatar
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I’m not saying we should sign Arrieta. But Wainwright is a long shot and Weaver is far from proven.

    #41152
    Avatar
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    CMart: solid
    Wacha: injury history and can’t go past 5 innings
    Weaver: promising but unproven
    Waino: anything left in the tank?
    Mikolas: pretty much an unknown
    Reyes: won’t start season until May and then probably will go to the pen
    Flaherty: not quite ready yet

    Yes, I think we could use a rotation piece.

    #41162
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    It never fails to amaze me how narratives start and after being repeated, they become assumed. Here is fact, not opinion.

    Average innings per start, Michael Wacha, 2017: 5.52 over 30 starts.

    That means on the average, he pitched midway through the sixth inning. For every game he did not get past the fifth, he pitched into the seventh in another start.

    Other returning starters for 2018 to have made 30 starts in 2017: Carlos Martinez.

    Those who want to trade away Wacha because of his perceived limitations need to look at the rest of the rotation and reconsider. He isn’t going to win the Cy Young Award, but he seems healthy now, is not overpaid and is a good guy to have to send out there every fifth day.

    #41163
    Avatar
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Arrieta would be the worst possible addition imo. Every single stat of his has trended worse over the last three years. K’s, innings, HR%, velocity, GB%, Hard Hit %, ERA, FIP, xFIP…..you also would lose a draft pick. In four of his five seasons with the Cubs, his infielders saved at least 20 runs over the course of the full season according to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

    You might as well set $100M+ (+!!!!) on fire.

    Darvish is worth twice as much as Arrieta.

    #41171
    Avatar
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Pads. Nice post.

    #41189
    Avatar
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    What I mean with Wacha is he rarely pitches past the fifth inning effectively.

    From Bernie:

    Michael Wacha: He’s a fine starting pitcher as long as he’s fresh. But because of the shoulder-blade fatigue that will always be part of Wacha’s annual challenge the stamina doesn’t hold. Wacha has averaged 150 innings over the last two seasons; that relatively low count puts a burden on the bullpen. And Wacha fades during games. Over the last two seasons, when Wacha goes against the other team’s lineup for the third time during a start, hitters have punished him for a .310 average, .375 onbase percentage, and .524 slug. That .899 OPS (third-time through) is the third-worst against a qualifying MLB starting pitcher since the start of 2016.

    #41193
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    It feels a bit misleading to me. Wacha increased his innings from 2016 when injured from 138 to 165 2/3 in 2017. He also pitched slightly better in SLG and OPS the third time through the order in 2017 vs. 2016.

    How does anyone with a keyboard know Wacha cannot further improve his stamina? The data shows that is what he did from 2016 to 2017. (He also knocked a run off his ERA, in case that matters.)

    The implication being made is that 2016 and 2017 combined is the best Wacha can ever be. I am not making that assumption. Perhaps after he gains more experience with his new shoulder routines, he can get back closer to where he was in 2015.

    He also isn’t getting help from his manager. Remember the Sept. 27 game against the Cubs when Wacha had a 1-0 shutout going into the 7th? Matheny had no relievers ready, so by the time he could get Wacha out, the Cubs scored five times.

    #41196
    Avatar
    wagee12
    Participant

    Yes it has been very amusing to see some, one in particular, try to trade Wacha on this board for weeks and weeks now. He is still a relatively young pitcher and he has a bright future ahead. Would not surprise me at all if he became a top of the rotation starter.

    #41199
    bicyclemike
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    I think the offense is going to be pretty good, and like seeing that the club is looking to strengthen the rotation. Lots of question marks there. Plus Lynn was pretty darn good last year, and that is a lot of starts and innings that need to be filled with a quality pitcher. Arrieta would be nice to have, especially as a take-away from the Cubs. But then he is an older guy who is trending downward. One positive note though, is that the guy is a workout machine and knows his mechanics and works to keep them fine tuned. I think the guy is a decent risk to reverse the trend. He won’t be the 2015 all-world version, but it would not surprise me to see him better in ’18.

    #41203
    Avatar
    858booyah
    Participant

    Free

    He didn’t even average 6 innings a start. I know the trend is going towards 6 man rotation and multiple inning relievers and he did pitch a lot the last 2 seasons but his numbers are running downward.

    Almost like We should revisit Lynn.

    #41204
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t know how to say this politely, but some of you are clearly out of touch with today’s game, not to mention lacking facts to support your contentions.

    Average innings pitched per start, 2017
    5.51 MLB
    5.52 National League
    5.50 American League

    Average innings pitched per start, Cardinals, 2017
    6.40 Martinez
    5.92 Leake
    5.65 Lynn
    5.52 Wacha
    5.28 Wainwright

    For those who are not into math, the exact difference between good Lynn and bad Wacha was 0.13 innings per start. In other words, Lynn got an average of one more out than Wacha every three starts.

    Further, Wacha’s innings per start is EXACTLY THE SAME as the National League average.

    Wacha’s numbers are “running downward”, you say.

    Wacha innings per start/ERA as starter
    2016: 5.51 innings/4.62 ERA
    2017: 5.52 innings/4.13 ERA

    How is that, again?

    #41206
    Avatar
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I thought booyay was referring to Arrieta.

    #41207
    Avatar
    PadsFS
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Arrieta shouldn’t get paid like an ace when he’s just merely average at this point.

    #41211
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Couldn’t tell since he never mentioned a name. Is this thread about Arrieta? 😉

    #41220
    Avatar
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The entire industry is shifting towards the idea of not letting your starter face the opposing lineup a third time. Wacha is the poster boy for that argument since he gets crushed the third time through.

    #41222
    Avatar
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Wacha should be penciled in as our #2 starter. There is no valid reason to doubt that.The other options right now are Mikolas, Weaver or Wainwright. If Wacha returns to his 2015 days as BW mentioned it would make a huge difference in our W-L season total.

    Why would anyone suggest trading our #2 starter.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 6 months ago by Avatar 14NyquisT.
    #41227
    Avatar
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t think its so much a strategy that managers don’t want their pitchers to face a lineup a third time, as it is that the pitchers aren’t hungry enough to want to pitch more than 5-6 innings. Its possible that their agents are encouraging them to pitch less to save their arms. But its also possible that they just don’t see any reason to put in the extra effort that it takes to pitch 8-9 innings. After all, wins don’t matter anymore, and won/lost records for a pitcher are irrelevant, so why should they bother themselves. But I’ll say this, also. If pitchers only want to do 60-70% of the work that they did 5 or 6 years ago, then they should get paid 60-70% of what they got paid then. And since the ball clubs are not paying them to win anymore, but only to perform for 5-6 innings, then take some more off for that lack of effort, also.

    #41245
    Avatar
    nbr1hawkeye
    Participant

    I think the anti-Arrieta folks can relax. Jake will not be a Cardinal. JMO…

    #41269
    Avatar
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    If Wacha is our second best starter then we have a big problem.

    #41278
    Avatar
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    If one would wanted to avoid a big problem… who would they say is our second best starter?
    A. Wainwright
    B. Mikolas
    C. Weaver
    See what I mean.

Viewing 25 posts - 1 through 25 (of 177 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and their minor league system for 20 years