Jake Arrieta free agent thread + Darvish to Cubs

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    Just about every team is short a starter for their rotation. We are much better off than almost every other club because of our depth. I agree that Flaherty is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. I wouldn’t include him in a trade for Donaldson unless we could extend Donaldson first. Even then, I may not want to do it. IMO, Flaherty is a No. 1 or No. 2 that is just starting to come into his own. After this season he will be untouchable.



    So when will expect Reyes ST throwing to begin? March 15th???


    Yep, the untested rooks will be the ones that will unseat the Cubs…. in ’19. There will be a new true ace and maybe a new #2/#3 and probably one more, but one year away they should have another year of MLB under their belts or at least some MLB experience.

    This is what we’ve been waiting for for three years. The strong arms from the organization will get the MLB experience to become successful MLB starters. Weaver has already proven his worth and is “projected” to be the team leader in wins for ’18. Reyes would have been the other starter if not for the bum wing, but he’ll be ready to go full time by mid-season. I’m a strong Flaherty backer because all he’s done so far has been consistently good and most of the time dominant. I believe he carries that into the MLB. Both Reyes and Flaherty will be studs in ’19.

    Hudson, Helsley, Hicks Gomber will be competing for the sixth man by the end of ’18. Wainwright and Mikolas will be gone (unless they totally step up in ’18). That will leave the younger guys to finally take over along with Martinez, Weaver and Wacha. This sounds like the plan that’s on the wall in the FO.

    Going into 2018, the team as it is, honestly, is not going to win much of anything. Don’t be surprised or upset, be patient… much better days are ahead in ’19.



    Sorry that sounds like Cub BS, just wait till next year it will be better…that is a cop out and nothing more, if the Cards miss post season again this year MM and the front office need to be looking for new jobs end of story!

    Brian WaltonBrian Walton

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    Onyx, my response is the same every time you say that. Realistically, if the Cards miss the playoffs again, Matheny will probably take the hit, not the front office. That would take at least another year of misery.



    Going into 2018, the team as it is, honestly, is not going to win much of anything. Don’t be surprised or upset, be patient… much better days are ahead in ’19.

    That is awesome that the Cardinals front office has fans so conditioned to “being prudent” that we are expected to be content while it is clear they are not really trying…



    14Nyquist is right. The Front Office is placing the future on the young pitchers turning into stars. They seem to have high ceilings. I hope they turn out to be everything that the Front Office hopes they are.


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    14Nyquist, if our secret plan is just wait until 2019 then I don’t think that is going to fly with our fan base nor does it correspond with the “reported” sense of urgency that our front office has been working under this winter. We have been mentioned with nearly every free agent and potential trade candidate on the market. Some of those may have been smokescreens but I doubt all of them are. I still see a big move coming within the next month.


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    This team is already much better going in to ST than last year’s team was.


    The future is now, not in ’19. Go for it Cardinals. And frankly it gets tedious with these guesses, projections and estimates for seasons two or three years down the road. Thanks for your post.


    Much better? How?


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    No Peralta. No Broxton. Ozuna in right field. This, is enough to say the team is much improved, IMO. But, also, the bullpen looks much better with Rosenthal off to recover his health (wish him the best), and Siegrist in a better place. I think Wong has settled down and, if so, that’s an improvement over last year. Shortstop appears to be more settled than it has been for years. Leake and his sore head cost us some games during the second half, and he’s gone. Fowler should able to contribute more if his foot is healed. Pham is an improvement for center field. Plus, we have a bevy of pitching talent that should be ready to contribute this season including Reyes.




    It’s not even a secret. I don’t think any of these so-called pursuits of big time talent are real. There may be a big deal coming but I doubt it. They drew 3.4 million people last year with a mediocre team. Cardinal fans are sheep. If they stopped right now and went to ST and opened the season with the roster they have right now, they would still draw 3.4. So, why should they do anything. What you’re hearing now from the Front Office is Cardinal Speak. They’re trying to sign everyone then later, well, we couldn’t find a partner, can’t block the youngsters, can’t mortgage the future…the usual crap. Then Mo will emerge from his lair and drop the magic solution on everyone…Bullpen by Committee. I hope they do something but I’m not optimistic. I never believe anything they say…only what they do.


    Mo is working the closer angle hard. But he would rather pay a higher AAV for a shorter term contract than a lower AAV for a longer term contract. Doesn’t want tie up capital and possibly get burned with injury or severe underperformance.



    It’s not even a secret. I don’t think any of these so-called pursuits of big time talent are real. There may be a big deal coming but I doubt it.
    They’re trying to sign everyone then later, well, we couldn’t find a partner, can’t block the youngsters, can’t mortgage the future…the usual crap.
    I hope they do something but I’m not optimistic. I never believe anything they say…only what they do.

    What do you call adding a guy that’s in his prime that hit .312/.376/.548/.924 with 37 HRs and played gold glove defense last year? They traded 2 top-10 prospects to get him as well. We also finalized a trade for his counter-part in Miami in Stanton only to be turned down by the player.

    Your typical rant doesn’t exactly fit anymore, does it?

    I’m sure you’ll ignore this.

    Brian WaltonBrian Walton

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    That was LAST month. What have they done lately? 😉



    He’s done one thing he got a bat we needed, well we still need another, and our pen still is not good….if we go into the season as it is right now we are looking at 3 straight years no post season…


    I think they are better but not “much” better.


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    I think we are marginally better right now but we are not yet ready to overthrow the Cubs. If we are finished for the winter then our plan must be to try to sneak in as a wild card and hope for the best.

    By the way Mud, Ozuna will in be LF.


    It’s all about pitching. Several years ago our staff had the lowest
    overall ERA in MLB. At this point it’s a work in process with Waino’s health and possible continued regression, Wacha’s health history, an unknown in Mikolas,
    and Weaver in his 1st full season.
    Not to mention the lack of a proven closer.


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    2018 vs 2017 (as of now)…in my totally off the top of my head forecasting and evaluation!

    Lineup: +5.5
    -c__Yadi -.5 Yadi
    (amazing offense and defense year and no injury.. age/luck probably catches him a little)
    -1b__Carp +1 Carp
    (he went into the year injured, if not injured he has to be a bit better at least)
    -2b__Wong +1 Wong
    (doesn’t get much better but stays on the field a bit more)
    -3b__Gyorko +.5 Peralta/Gyorko
    (hard to see him keep it all going like he did and he tailed off last year, but Peralta stole time)
    -ss__DeJong +1 DeJong
    (more games means more chances to grow, but we said the same thing about Diaz)
    -lf__Fowler -.5 Pham/Grich/Adams (Pham didnt get the full time job right away, healthy Fowler is productive, but matching Pham last year might be impossible)
    -cf__Pham +1.5 Fowler
    (regression for Pham seems inevitable, but Fowler was injured a lot but still produced)
    -rf__Ozuna +3 Piscotty/Grich
    (obvious, but even with a little regression it should be a big improvement over Piscotty last year)

    Rotation: -1
    -sp__CMart +.5 CMart
    (maturing Cmart will be a bit better)
    -sp__Wacha +.0 Wacha
    (good year for Wacha, but ailments are still concern and worry)
    -sp__Weaver +.5 Leake
    (we Leake wasnt great for us and Weaver hasnt shown a whole year yet…the upside Weaver showed makes me hopeful he gets better)
    -sp__Mikolas ??? -1 ??? Lynn
    (big loss here as Lynn was a rock, hard to know what we are getting with Mikolas)
    -sp__Waino/Flaherty/Reyes -1 Waino
    (Waino got bad latem but gave some great performances when we needed him last year…but injuries hit him hard it seems…i’d have gone for a bigger drop off, but the depth of Reyes and Flaherty make the fall off that MAY happen more manageable than last year IMO)

    bullpen: +2
    -cl__Gregerson +.5 Oh/Rosy
    (even if Gregerson is our closer right now he’d be better than what we got out of Oh IMO, but Luke wasnt great last year..he should uptick a little)
    -rp__Lyons +1 Siegrest/Rosy
    (Siegrest was bad but Rosy was pretty good, and Lyons was pretty great and has been for a while)
    -rp__Brebbia +1 Broxton
    (Broxton was very poor last year, Brebbia was very good, but a slump shodul be expected)
    -rp__Cecil +.5 Cecil
    (Cecil wasn’t as bad as everyone thinks last year, but when he was bad he was bad…IMO he is better)
    -rp__Bowman +.0 Bowman
    (Bowman will be about the same maybe a touch better if we dont use him as much)
    -rp__Tuivalala +.5 Socolovich
    (Soco was a bust after a good year, but Tuivalala is in the same position make it or don’t, but Tuivalal took some good steps last year)
    -rp__Gant -1.5 Lyons
    (Lyons was a beast last year in the long man role and more eventually, I havent seen Gant do anything close to what Lyons has done to make me think he can step up liek that)

    bench: +1.5
    -b-c__Kelly +1 Fryer
    (obvious but backup catchers can only help so much)
    -b-of__Grichuk/Bader +.5 Grichuk/Pham
    (about the same but i think in a pure defined role for Bader or Grichuk they will be a bit better)
    -b-mi__Garcia +.0 Garcia
    (Greg Garcia is who he is, he isn’t old enough to get worse, if he played SS better i’d feel better)
    -b-ci/mi__Valera/Meija/Yairo -.5 Gyorko/DeJong/Diaz
    (tough to not see our super sub spot being worse than the good options we had last year)
    -b-1b/of__JMart +1 Adams
    (JMart is much more capable as a pinch hitter IMO and more versatile and seems to be coming on strong)

    TOTAL: +8

    Hard not to see this year as being better than last year overall…add in a way to shuttle Gant back to the minors for an upgrade in the pen…and see if you can push Carp or Gyorko back to the super sub spot on the bench and you have a pretty BIG upgrade….if you added in a way to push Waino to the pen or a safety net for Mikolas we get EVEN better

    at the end of the day it spells out what we want to get better at and what we all seem to see
    -a good bat that moves Gyorko or Carp back to the bench makes us better in the lineup and the bench…doesnt have to be Donaldson or Machado or a world beater, just a solid hitter that can help protect Ozuna or anyone else a little…i’d prefer a high average guy that hits doubles..like a late career Rolen
    -a quality closer pushes the bullpen to having more stability and doesnt force Brebbia, Tuivalala, Lyons from being amazing)
    -a starting pitcher of good quality (2 or up IMO), takes stress off everyone from Cmart down

    sign Hosmer and trade for Archer and Colome
    trade for Colome, trade for Realmuto, and sign Darvish

    it’s never that easy of course




    Your analysis is interesting as always. And your suggested acquisitions are sound and would certainly make the team better. The problem is you suggest acquiring those players as if the Cardinals are actually going to do something. The past would suggest they are more than likely done, save a reliever but not a top notch closer.


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    I’m not saying they WILL, SHOULD, NEED, or HAVE to do anything

    I mostly did it to show that IMO we are already a better team than we were last year

    the last couple lines on what we COULD do to make us better is only icing…and what if’s…and any ONE of those upgrades would make an already better team than 2017 better

    IMO the Front Office has already made us better than last year…is it “enough” to get the division back and compete for a World Series,…can’t say… but the team we put out there last year didnt miss the playoffs by much and competed with the Cubs way better than they did the year before

    IMO I believe we have the money and prospects to get the team to be better without sacrificing the future as much as people think…

    money spent on Hosmer may be too much and for too long but he would fortify the lineup…same goes for adding Darvish…trading for Archer and Colome or Realmuto and colome would be expensive in prospects…but it wouldn’t gut us to the point of not recovering AND the guys we’d get for them would mitigate the immediate need for them anyways.

    if i was in the FO i would feel my job was on the line this year…playoffs are a must or big changes will happen…so i’d be bold…go big and maybe if the moves were big enough but the outcomes wasnt great i’d get to keep my job even if it falls apart due to injuries or poor play or some amazing other team doing amazing things…now would i go stupid? like Machado or Donaldson for the farm no…but controllable assets and good contracts…heck yeah…maybe one big use of money OR a nice combination of moves….

    as this all goes back to Arrieta…to me i dont trust him at his age…i liek Darvish better…i might even prefer to take Lynn for big money over Darvish and Arrieta…he is a known quantity after all

    trade for Realmuto + Ziegler
    – Kelly centerpiece…add in Gomber and Mayers or Gant
    (they get their new young starting catcher and a pitching prospect and save a lot of money)
    (we get a better backup for aging Yadi who can start at 1b who hits well and defends well and is cheap and allow us a 4man bench, Ziegler even helps with the pen adding to our closer experience guys and longer pen)

    trade for Archer
    – Flaherty + Helsley + ADGarcia + Derian or Seijas
    (pushes Waino to pen or someone else who gets hurt in ST)
    (we may have to offer more…perhaps Hudson instead of Helsley)
    (they get young high end prospects, we get an amazing pitchiner and contract)
    (we lose high end pitching prospects, but not Reyes)

    sign Reed
    (is de facto closer, while still having Reyes and Hicks if needed to help)

    blah blah blah…im babbling again…i should probably stop here and move to the trades thread…


    to get it back to the topic though

    Arrieta (or any other addition to rotation) means a subtraction… moving Wacha might work, Waino to the pen is iffy but not totally ridiculous as it may first seem, Mikolas being a ? is areal thing and his conversion to the pen while not what they said might be an option shoudl he scuffle in his return to MLB, Weaver is no absolute and could start in AAA)

    The team IMO is already better than last year…but perhaps not enough seeing as i think the Cubs are going to still add a big time starter…and will probably add some big time talent to their team next offseason (ahem Harper or Machado)…so while we are better lots of other teams we are competing with are better too…OZuna went a long way…Mikolas is a smart move but far from easing our mind and Gregerson’s last year is hard to find solace in when seeing the signing… at least ONE more move seems necessary…2-3 more might make start us off with optimism instead of just “hope” …

    Arrieta isa mistake IMO…Darvish seems safer to me…as an upgrade over Wacha Weaver Mikolas or Waino… but for the money i’d rather spend on a known quantity in Lynn or trade prospects for a younger high end guy like ARcher…and spend the money elsewhere…


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    Just to reiterate I’m pretty sure Ozuna will be the starting LEFT FIELDER.


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    I know Ozuna won a Gold Glove for left field. But he never got a chance to play right field because that was Stanton’s position. I have heard talk on the radio and read comments that Ozuna might be starting in right field with Fowler in left, and Pham in center. Obviously, if Ozuna turns out to be a better right fielder than Fowler, he ought to be playing right field. Either way, the outfield should be much better at the start of the season than it was last year.

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