2023 Pitching staff

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Viewing 25 posts - 176 through 200 (of 203 total)
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  • #209590
    Bob Reed
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    You’re very gracious, jj. Right back at you.

    #209613
    CardsFan552
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    Hudson…?? better than woodford..not even close.
    // 2022 stats.
    Hudson era – 4.45, whip – 1.45, avg vs. – .273
    Woody ear – 2.23, whip – 1.12, avg vs. – .249
    I take Woodford well before I take Dakota, I think its obvious.

    #209614
    Lee
    Participant

    It doesn’t matter if Woodford was in aaa. The fact that he was in aaa in the first place was a big mistake.! He should have been up all season, providing the option for the various starts we needed. It is certain that he would have provided the team a better chance of success.

    #209615
    Lee
    Participant

    Cardsfan. you are correct.
    That is an obvious choice!

    #209616
    stlcard25
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    Paid - Annual

    Hudson…?? better than woodford..not even close.
    // 2022 stats.
    Hudson era – 4.45, whip – 1.45, avg vs. – .273
    Woody ear – 2.23, whip – 1.12, avg vs. – .249
    I take Woodford well before I take Dakota, I think its obvious.

    Hudson coming back from TJ and Woodford being managed into pillow soft situations. The comparison fails. Hudson has been better than Woodford at every minors stop and in his first two years of MLB ball before the injury. Woody’s incredible HR/FB luck during his “good” stretch of starts in 2021 (he gave up 0 HR despite allowing plenty of hard contact and fly balls) and pretty much all of 2022 (1/43 HR/FB ratio when the average pitcher would have given up 6 HR) make him look like a better pitcher than he was.

    I feel it’s likely that Woodford will always win the backup QB beauty contest, because there will always be better options. He’ll put up good mop up numbers, and fans will always justify that to say he should be given more starts, higher leverage, etc. If Woodford starts 25+ games, he will have an ERA in the high 4s. Write it down and make me eat crow if he outperforms it, but I’m pretty confident that we’re missing on nothing by not having Woodford take the ball every 5 days.

    Again, none of this is to say that he’s not a useful member of the staff…he can be solid in that swing man role. He’s certainly not someone you plan around, though.

    #209621
    Lee
    Participant

    Bottom line, regardless of your thoughts he is under utilized and I actually hope he goes to another team that will give him the chance he has earned.

    #209628
    stlcard25
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    Woodford is not underutilized. I don’t get why people think he was jerked around last year. The Cards had other options they needed to explore…several didn’t pan out and some did. If they’d given up on guys that went elsewhere and had success, fans would be frying them for it. As is, Woodford had options and was used like he had them…like hundreds of other MLB players over the years.

    #209632
    gscottar
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    Paid - Annual

    So who gets credit for the team winning 93 games last year?

    Front Office?
    Manager?
    Players?
    Fans?
    Owner?
    Blind Luck?

    #209641
    CardsFan552
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    Free

    ok stlcard25. you are right, as always. no wonder your not a mlb manager…

    #209642
    CardsFan552
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    Free

    or should I say, right in your own mind.. not most people who are posting here.

    #209643
    Lee
    Participant

    Have to agree with 552. he was certainly mis-managed this year. no, he’s not a savior by any means, but he is certainly better than many of the guys who got several starts last season. But, 2023 will bring a whole new wave of minor league guys, so ST will sort it all out.
    Until then, all have a Happy Holiday.

    #209646
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    If Woody got, say 8-10 starts, we don’t know what would happen. But if, as an organization, you don’t reward results, you are not doing yourself a favor. That applies up and down the system.

    #209659
    Bob Reed
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    “Woody’s incredible HR/FB luck during his “good” stretch of starts in 2021 (he gave up 0 HR despite allowing plenty of hard contact and fly balls) and pretty much all of 2022 (1/43 HR/FB ratio when the average pitcher would have given up 6 HR) make him look like a better pitcher than he was.”

    I didn’t look into 2021, but in 2022 Woodford gave up just the one home run, which indeed almost certainly involved a chunk of luck. By taking all batted ball locations against Woodford, we can see that with average good fortune he should have given up a little less than 2 homers. Here’s the math:

    In 14 parks he would’ve given up just the one homer.
    In 9 MLB parks it would’ve been 2 homers.
    In 5 parks, 3 homers.
    And in 2 parks, he would’ve coughed up 4 homers.

    So (1×14) plus (2×9) plus (3×5) plus (4×2) equals 55 homers across all 30 MLB parks. Divide the 55 homers by those 30 total ballparks, and you get 1.83 homers. So based on how well/poorly the batters hit the ball against him, JW “should’ve” allowed 1.83 homers in 2022. Lucky, yes. But not a lot of lucky. He pitched to the edges of the zone, and got a lot of mediocre contact.

    Woodford will never post another 2.23 ERA again, just like Goldy will never have another 190 OPS+. But both deserve credit for their 2022 achievements even if they are not going to be repeated. (Not that their achievements are remotely comparable in their profundity, of course.)

    #209671
    stlcard25
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    Paid - Annual

    That’s all fine and good, if you think beating the HR/FB odds is sustainable. I happen to think it’s not. Average HR/FB rates are 12-14%. Incidentally, Woodford’s upper minors HR/FB rates are around 11% (11.29%). So…be nice and say he maintains that in the bigs and he’s at 4.73 HR allowed last year. In his September 2021 starts he allowed 0 HR over 51 fly ball events. That’s 1 HR allowed over 94 fly balls…which is completely unsustainable. I went back to 2000 and no starter was under 6% over their career. Of long time starters, only a few are under 8%.

    Woodford’s xERA last year was 4.00, and that was with a lot going right. Having a 4.50+ ERA guy available in time of extreme need is helpful, for sure. Yet…it’s unhelpful to make him into something he’s not in order to make any sort of point about the team’s treatment of him. I’ll trust the pros to make the right call, and I’m sure we will see him succeed to the best of his ability in whatever role he finds himself in.

    #209673
    Euro Dandy
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    Free

    Hudson and Woodford are similar in so many ways. Hudson was a challenging watch back when he was “good.” He and Woodford both have very unremarkable stuff. The difference thus far is Hudson has shown he consistently has command issues with his unremarkable stuff, while Woodford has shown the he probably (given his limited stage time) has pretty good command of his. Pitchers really need that, especially the unremarkable stuff types who want to stick around for several years.

    #210284
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    This is part of Blake Newberry’s ’23 predictions.

    The Cardinals will trade for pitching at the deadline

    Much like they did last year, the Cardinals are probably going to be in the pitching market when the trade deadline rolls around. Barring any key injuries, if the Cardinals have a hole to fill it will be the same one they didn’t fill this winter: the top of the rotation.

    I guess the major question is why not now. The FO may be waiting to see what the younger players have to offer in Spring training. That would be my guess.

    #210291
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I mentioned elsewhere the problem with trying to make sure you have enough pitching at midseason by hiring pitchers now. Simply put, pitchers get injured at an alarming rate, and just because you hire one now doesn’t mean you are addressing the need you set out to address. If you wait until midseason and hire somebody who is still healthy then, there you go. Mission accomplished. It would not surprise me one bit if Mo has been thinking that exact thing.

    #210662
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Michael Polishuk MLB Trade Rumors:

    Flaherty might be heading into his final year in St. Louis regardless of how well he pitches. Either another injury-plagued year leads the Cardinals to move on, or Flaherty might himself depart for a big free agent contract on the heels of a successful bounce-back campaign.

    I think we all know that this goes without saying. Its good to keep in mind looking ahead to ’24 and beyond. Somewhere, somehow the Cards will need to find a pitcher that can at least be considered a #1. At this point the FO should start addressing this without hoping to find a top-tier P from within the organization. This situation is becoming a yearly event ever since the Flaherty woes began.

    #210665
    stlcard25
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    My great hope is that the Phillies fall out of contention and decide to move on from Nola at the deadline. Of all the upcoming FAs, he’s the one I think is the best fit for us going forward. I’m hoping that the FO ponies up, and if we hit on one of Graceffo or Hence, that they become the #2. Add in Liberatore as a 3/4, perhaps McGreevy and Matz as the rest of the rotation…and I would feel solid about that. A lot of protection there, to the point that I expect them to extend Mikolas at some point.

    #210668
    gscottar
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    Pretty much what stl25 said. I also feel that Mikolas will be extended. Montgomery might be a possibility but considering his age he will probably want to give free agency a try. I do not expect Flaherty to be here in 2024. Matz will be around. Hudson might be around. Some combo of Liberatore, Thompson, Graceffo, and McGreevy could crack the ’24 rotation. As for a number one the top potential free agents in ’24 will be Ohtani, Nola, Scherzer (opt out), and Urias. Then there is always a trade candidate like Bieber. I also like Lopez of Miami but he is probably a number 2.

    #210673
    PadsFS
    Participant

    I really hope they extend Montgomery. He’s been very good the last two years and getting him extended, would be buying out his age 30-33 seasons. That is better than getting Mikolas at age 35 or whatever. Flaherty would be the ideal extension though, assuming he pitches great in 2023.

    #210674
    stlcard25
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    The issue with Monty is that he’s a lefty. If he’s extended you have to assume Matz or Liberatore to the pen or not starting somehow. I like Jordan and hope he stays, but the logistics are funny. I’d personally go big for Nola next year at $30M+ vs Monty at $20M.

    #210681
    PadsFS
    Participant

    stlcard25

    The issue with Monty is that he’s a lefty. If he’s extended you have to assume Matz or Liberatore to the pen or not starting somehow. I like Jordan and hope he stays, but the logistics are funny. I’d personally go big for Nola next year at $30M+ vs Monty at $20M.

    One would not preclude the other imo. If you got Montgomery locked up, I’d be inclined to trade Liberatore. I’m sure the Angels could use him. Nola would be hard to fit in, but they’d be about $25M under so they could part with Hudson as well to get to your $30M. I see Montgomery getting a Eduardo Rodriguez contract too, more like $15-16M a year for 5 years, which would be another way to stay under the proverbial cap that they live at.

    #210683
    jj-cf-stl
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    I like Blings point of the FO acquiring pitchers at the deadline, who have stayed healthy for 65% of the current season. Said pitchers have also already earned 65% of their salary, but this approach does have risk.

    The amount of starters available will be less than during the offseason, and while they are at a 65% off discount, it also takes traded players from us that the FA’s wouldn’t have. Deadline asking prices can be sky high.

    It seems to be the FO preferred approach with starters but there are very good relievers still available in free agency. C-H-A-F-I-N !!!!

    #210684
    GameCard
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    Free

    One of Montgomery’s advantages is that he is a lefty.

Viewing 25 posts - 176 through 200 (of 203 total)
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