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Yeah, but Wong was a bad mistake. They should have said “bye-bye” to him in Oct. of ’13 immediately following game #4…Haha!
DeJong’s best offensive year was year one (2017). He had an MLB average offensive year three (99 OPS+, 101 wRC+). The only reason he had higher WAR in year three (2019) was a crazy defensive rating THAT YEAR ONLY. It was three times higher than his best season in the field either prior or since. That is an unexplainable anomaly to me that skews the perception of his 2019.
I’m going with ’19 as DeJong’s best year simply based on 30 HR’s, 78 RBI’s and 97 runs scored. All 3 of those offensive categories are career highs.
There’s a category on BR called “Marcel’s projections,” whatever that means. In any event, this category for DeJong’s ’23 season has him projected to collect 359 PA’s next season. If that indeed happens, I “project” myself to be saying a lot of bad words at the TV next year.
I just looked it up and Marcel’s projections is supposed to be short for “The Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System”…Haha! However, here’s the proverbial kicker…According to the MLB website, “Marcel has frustrated many a predicter because, despite the simplicity of it’s methods, it typically performs on par with other more complex systems.” Where do they get these guys?
Dejong could hit 359 PAs if Edman gets hurt and Winn isn’t ready yet. The SS depth isn’t exactly there at this point. If we could even get 90 wRC+ from Paul, he’d be a palatable backup SS with his solid glove.
I didn’t take Eddie hurting himself into account, stlcard. I’ll bet that’s what that little Marcel Monkey was thinking of. He’s pretty smart after all…Haha!
BW, I need to mention PDJ’s innings in the field during 2019 were his career high, allowing more opportunity to accumulate a higher defensive runs amount (if you’re playing well).
He had 1372 innings in 19′ and 1410 innings in 21′ & 22′ combined, so there’s some of the spike in his D numbers by opportunity alone.
We can also normalize each season to 1,000 innings just like we do for batters with war/600.
19′ is 17.5 per 1000 innings
21′ is 6.9 / 1000
22′ is 9.3 / 1000There is still a spike, but to a lesser degree. We see this a lot, with different players, and I attribute it to fielders having career years also, as well as down years. Maybe that’s arguable too, but I think career D seasons exist.
I’d point at his 2019 PA’s too, helping his oWAR as his career best. It’s an individual choice, rate stats like ops+, or accumulative stats like owar and total war.
What I can’t agree with is PDJ has been falling like a rock since his debut season. Not from you, but occasionally that scenario makes an appearance here.
As I mentioned earlier, on this or another thread, PDJ showed that he has the physical capacity to hit when he did so at an OPS 1.000+ clip for a month or so this year. Maybe the new coaching regime will help him keep his head on straight. If he can, then there are 9 million reasons why 359 PAs would not require anyone else to get hurt.
I can genuinely envision a scenario in which DeJong hits like King Kong during make believe games in ST and the Cardinals claim that the new coaching regime has miraculously found the precise answer to the proverbial puzzle. Resurrected from hitting death, he’s placed back into the starting SS role at the start of the regular season and promptly goes on a 4 for 40 binge in games that count before he’s placed on the IL with a mysterious ailment. Not at all an unlikely scenario and one that we’ve witnessed twice in the past.
If PDJ gets his confidence back he could be a force. The last several seasons he was beaten before he got to the plate.
The pessimistic side of me says that DeJong will never be a hitter in the MLB. He has not done much in the last 3 years that indicate he can do anything with the bat. The optimistic side of me looks at this article on Redbird Rants and thinks MAYBE he could turn things around. He has a .277 career minor league BA and hit .285 in his rookie year so he has some hitting ability. I hope he can turn things around but I don’t expect him to.
PDJ is a very smart guy, maybe to his own detriment. Some guys like that over-analyze things. That’s great for prep and training but not gameday performance where you need to trust the skills produced by all that prep and training in the form of muscle memory and athletic rhythm. Doubt can ruin that. He doesn’t hide it very well in his body language.
He needs to be more like those short-memory NFL cornerbacks who can give up a few long TD passes, yet still think they will make a great play on the next pass their way. Short memory they call it. PDJ has to be smart enough to figure out a way to trick his mind into not being so “smart” on gameday. I don’t think it’ll happen either because he’s been around long enough to show us who he is, but never say never. He seems like a really good guy so it would be a nice story if he could turn it around.
First JJ asked, “Name your price, GameCard. What should Edman’s contract extension look like?
Yrs / $”GameCard enthused, “Incorrect on Eddie IMO. Sign him long-term NOW.”
And finally, 25 went into some useful details: “I would not sign Edman long term unless very favorable terms (something like Whit Merrifield’s deal with a low base and club options). Merrifield is an excellent comp for Edman and he’s basically replacement level by now. Little guys whose game is predicated on speed and defense tend to decline early, and Edman fits that bill to a T. We want him here til about 30ish, and then move on.”
I agree with 25 that Merrifield is an excellent comp, as a player. (Merrifield, it should be noted, was worth a little over 3 WAR per 150 games during his age 31 & 32 seasons, by the way. Not peak Merrifield, but solidly productive.) I haven’t looked at the Merrifield contract, but I did glance at Cot’s Contracts, where Tommy Edman is projected to get just over $4MM in his first arbitration year this season. Which means that if, going forward, Tommy stays exactly as healthy and productive as he has in the past, he’ll likely make around $7MM in 2024 and $10MM in 2025. For a total of $21MM prior to free agency, which he would reach at age 30.
Therefore, I’d offer Tommy a contract that gives him more than that over the next three years, but with relatively cheap years beyond that, including a club option/buyout. Let’s say 6-8-10-12-12 for the next five years, with an option at 12 (and a 2 buyout). All told it’s a 5/50 or 6/60 contract.
And this way, Tommy is inked through age 32, with the option for an additional season. A deal like this feels mutually beneficial. Tommy is “set for life” even if he gets hurt or suffers a Mysterious DeJong DeCline. And the Cards get a bargain if Tommy ages as gracefully as Merrifield has. (Or Mark Ellis, if you want an even more optimistic comp for Tommy. With his value largely driven by defense and baserunning, second baseman Ellis was a 3+ WAR player right up until he arrived in St. Louis at age 37. After which he stunk, of course, as I’m sure you all recall.)
“They didn’t keep Wong, they won’t keep Edman.”
Well, with all due respect to Kolten Wong, Tommy Edman is a little bit better in every way. (Like how Paul Goldschmidt is a bit better than Freddie Freeman in every way, despite what the clowns at MLB Network asserted with vehement unanimity 12 months ago. But I digress.) Wong, career OPS+ of 99 — and it was just 95 as a Redbird. Edman, 103. Baserunning? Kolten is excellent, worth 4 runs above average per 150 games in his career per Fangraphs. Tommy however is historic, at 7 runs per 150 games. (Vince Coleman and the Two Billy Hamiltons might be the only guys to average 8 runs or better per 150, over a meaningful career.) And Edman is just a bit better in the field than Wong, as evidenced by Tommy’s ability to play shortstop if necessary.
And finally, Tommy is more durable than Kolten as well. So we add it all up, and the club should feel more motivated to retain Tommy than they did with Kolten — solid though Wong certainly was.
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I just looked it up and Marcel’s projections is supposed to be short for “The Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System.”…Haha! However, here’s the proverbial kicker…According to the MLB website, “Marcel has frustrated many a predicter because, despite the simplicity of its methods, it typically performs on par with other more complex systems.” Where do they get these guys?
I think I can give you the straight dope on this, Andujar. Marcel is just a silly name given to the projection system in honor of a TV monkey of the same name. There was a pet monkey named Marcel on a sitcom a didn’t watch.
The forecasting model was designed years ago by the highly respected baseball analyst Tom Tango — which I believe is his real name — and he named it after a monkey because of its simplicity. When projecting future performance, I’m 99% sure that Tango discards a player’s history from anything more than three years ago. Then he weights the past seasons as 3X the most recent season, 2X the year before, and 1x the year before that.
And that’s the whole thing in a nutshell, I believe. At least that’s what I recall reading several years ago. Maybe Tango has modified it, but I doubt it. Because part of the point of it, is that ballplayers are so tricky to predict, that even a very, very, very basic projection model can perform as well as the most sophisticated algorithms.
They didn’t keep Wong, they won’t keep Edman.
The Cardinals would have probably kept Wong a little longer but they were desperate to purge salary because of the covid related lack of revenue. It was not a good time for your club option to come up.
GameCard
I wish the Cardinals would sign Andrew Chafin and Luis Perdomo.
These lists just show how obvious Chafin is:
#6 in ERA, #3 in SO%, #1 in SO/BB ratio, #9 in GB%, #4 in FIP, and #8 in Innings.
Pads I read the piece about the free agents available and also some of the many recent comments. One guy put together a staff of FAs.
bwmiller17 hours ago
Could have a nice pitching staff with the players available in FA:SP1 – Eovaldi
SP2 – Kluber
SP3 – Wacha
SP4 – Cueto
SP5 – GreinkeMIRP – Hamels
MIRP – Appel
MIRP – Hill
LHRP – Chafin
RHRP – Weaver
7th – O’Day
8th – Moore
9th – Chapman
Got three starters in the bullpen, probably go with a six-man rotation, Hamels and Hill will battle it out for the 6th spot. Appel could have a good year if he gets a contract.*********************************************************************************
There are some other good comments but none linking Chafin to STL.Well lets look at the pen today. You know the five starting pitchers. That leaves eight spots IF all are healthy!!! Might as well look for 10 !
1) Gallegos 4.75mil
2) VerHagen 3.0mil
3) Stratton 2.8mil
4) Helsley 2.0mil (estimate)
5) Hicks 1.8mil (est.)
6) Hudson 1.75mil (est)
7) Cabrera 1.1mil (est) LHPSeven of the eight spots are making over the minimum and WILL get every opportunity to show their worth whether we like it or not. Happens every ST.
8) Woodford
God help me if I don’t list him eighth 😋
But, don’t forget, we have a rule 5 guy too.
8) Wilken Rodriguez (active roster or return to sender)And now the near minimum guys with options.
Thompson
Pallante
Romero
Naughton
Walsh, Naile, Pacheco, Zuniga
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I’ve been banging the drum for Chafin for two offseasons now. He ain’t coming.
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