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The draft is a week a way.
Here is the state of the Cardinals pitching pipeline. Biggest improvement since last update was Quinn Mathews. Mautz, Molina and Fajardo continue to perform.
#2 – Liam Doyle – 22 years old, AA, 14 starts in 2026, 56.0 IP (average 4.0 innings per start), 5.46 ERA; 1.61 WHIP; has improved innings per outing and ERA since last update, WHIP has regressed.
#5 – Quinn Mathews – 25 years old, AAA, 16 starts in 2026, 72.0 IP (average of 4.5 innings per start), 3.88 ERA, 1.26 WHIP; has reduced ERA by nearly 1.4, increased innings per start by 0.6, and lowered WHIP by 0.35 since last update.
#6 – Tanner Franklin – 22 years old, A+, 15 starts in 2026, 53.0 IP (average of 3.5 innings per start), 5.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP; marginal increase of 0.1 innings per start, ERA has increased by 1.16, WHIP has increased by 0.08.
#8 – Cooper Hjerpe – 25 years old, flew up the rankings from #11 to #8, simply because he is pitching for the first time in two years. 5 starts. 8.2 IP. (average of 1.6 innings per start). 4.15 ERA, 0.69 WHIP. Was sent down to FCL after three starts at Peoria.
#9 – Jurrangelo Cijntje – 23 years old, AA, 15 starts, 68.1 IP (average of 4.5 innings per start), 5.66 ERA, 1.43 WHIP; has had a mild decrease in innings per start of 0.1. ERA has increased by 0.48. WHIP mildly decreased by 0.01.
#10 – Brandon Clarke – 23 years old, AA, hasn’t pitched in 2026, Kyle reported that he is throwing 100 mph in rehab.
#11 – Tekoah Roby – 24 years old, AAA, hasn’t pitched in 2026.
#12 – Ixan Henderson – 24 years old, hasn’t pitched in 2026.
#13 – Braden Davis – 23 years old, AA, 64.2 IP, 15 starts (average 4.3 innings per game), 5.07 ERA, 1.55 WHIP; Flew up the rankings from #20 to #13. Mild increase of 0.2 innings per start, ERA decreased by 1.07, WHIP essentially held steady, increasing by 0.01.
#15 – Mason Molina – 22 years old, AA, 69.0 IP, 14 starts (4.9 innings per game), 2.87 ERA, 1.10 WHIP; Increased in rankings from 18 to 15. Recently promoted to AAA. Will make his AAA debut tonight. Increased innings per start by 0.5. Decreased ERA by 0.31. Decreased WHIP by 0.16.
#17 – Yhoiker Fajardo – 19 years old, A+, 60.1 IP, 14 games pitched – 12 starts (average of 4.3 IP per game), 3.73 ERA, 1.41 WHIP; Fell in rankings from 14 to 17. Increased innings per game by 0.2. ERA increased by 0.35. WHIP increased by 0.04.
#18 – Brycen Mautz – 24 years old, AAA (made MLB debut this week), 63.2 IP, 14 starts (average of 4.5 innings per game), 2.83 ERA at AAA, 1.46 WHIP at AAA; Fell in rankings from 15 to 18. Made his MLB debut for a cup of coffee. Innings per start held constant. ERA at AAA fell by 0.07. WHIP at AAA increased by 0.10.
#19 – Jacob Odle – 22 years old, A, 33.0 IP, 9 games – 7 starts (average 3.7 innings per start), 1.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP; flew up the rankings from 30 to 19. Promoted to Peoria after last update. Peoria numbers: 22.0 IP, 5 starts (average of 4.4 innings per start); 4.09 ERA; 1.41 WHIP.
#21 – Chen Wei-Lin – 24 years old, AA, 61.0 IP, 15 games pitched – 12 starts (average 4.1 innings per game), 4.28 ERA, 1.44 WHIP; Fell from 17 to 21 in rankings. Increased innings pitched by 0.2. ERA fell by 0.3. WHIP fell by 0.06.
#26 – Luis Gastelum – 24 years old, AAA, 42.2 IP, 35 games, 0 starts, 2.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP; fell from 23 to 26. Lowered ERA by 1.44. WHIP decreased by a marginal 0.01.
#27 – Xavier Cruz – 20 years old, promoted to A ball, 7 games across 2 levels with 2 starts, 21.0 IP (average of 3.0 innings per game); 3.86 ERA; 1.19 WHIP.
#30 – Tink Hence – 23 years old, AAA, 16.0 IP, 15 games, 3 starts 6.14 ERA, 1.75 WHIP; fell in rankings from 29 to 30. Lowered his ERA by 2.45!!! Lowered his WHIP by 0.53!!!
Two touchdowns and a field goal. Not bad for a team lacking a true quarterback!
Always good to beat the ScRubs. Even better to humiliate them.
The Cardinals to me are snail pace on challenging pitchers and promoting them.
They promoted Mathews three times in a year, until he stalled out at AAA.
I think the Cardinals got overly ambitious with Doyle. He should have started the season at Peoria.
Agreed. 70% of the pitches he threw in college were fastballs. They should have known it was going to take extra time to develop his secondaries.
Of course, there were people proclaiming the Cardinals would rush him to the big leagues in a year…
Some people argue you never draft HS pitchers, period.
Some argue you never draft right-handed HS pitchers.
A lot of the write-ups last year were that Hernandez was the best pitcher in the draft, and best HS pitcher in a long time.
If you believe it was a mistake passing on Hernandez, do you believe the Cardinals should draft Rojas at #13 if he is still on the board in this year’s draft?
Curious why you don’t like Flukey? He was looking like a top 5ish pick before the injury, which doesn’t seem like an arm thing.
He rode the helium from the 2025 CWS to the top of the draft boards. Other than a couple of weeks in 2025, he hasn’t been particularly effective.
You are correct, the injury was a rib fracture, not an arm injury.
For whatever reason, he hasn’t fallen in publicly available scouting sites, but they are generally slower to react when downgrading players.
I probably have about 10 other pitchers higher than Flukey. Now, if he falls to the second round, then maybe he is the best on the board. But at 13? I’d rather go in other directions.
I’m not sure I feel confident enough in the pitching in the system to pass up a guy like Flukey or Peterson if they are still available at our pick (and many mock drafts now have them sliding past 13).
I am not as high on the Cardinals pitching situation as others. I look at how many of the top prospects are injured or struggling to ERA’s over 5, and am just not impressed. I am not high on Flukey or Peterson, which means one of them will probably be the Cardinals choice.
I put the statistics about college versus high schoolers because on a recent podcast, Carlos Calazo casually mentioned something about how they inherently rank high schoolers above college players, which drives me nuts.
Statistically, if you want the best odds of developing a winning team, take the players that give you the best odds of contributing.
The only reason to ever draft a high schooler is if you truly believe he is going to be a superstar. Yet, how many times do we see teams drafting high schoolers and nothing about them screams “superstar”?
Does Molinas promotion mean Fajardo may be on his way to Springfield?
That is another promotion that should happen.
Happy to see the promotion. I was probably second highest on this board on Molina after gscottar. I was hoping they would draft him out of college, but getting him in a trade for a reliever is almost better.
My acute baseball intuition tells me that Johnny was forcibly nudged out of the picture
It definitely looks as though Mo was forced out.
I wonder if this will be Flo’s last year leading the draft. If I am Mo, I’d give him a long look as a GM candidate to revitalize the Angels.
It seems many are drawing that conclusion:
MLBTR – Mo doesn’t know Moreno, may draw Flores
Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group suggests that Cardinals assistant GM Randy Flores could be a candidate for the Angels job, as Flores is a known quantity to Mozeliak and has local ties as a SoCal native.
My use of stats tends toward brutalism, I admit, but with starters I like to pull up their game log on BRef and scan down the game score column, mostly to judge consistency, or lack thereof.
I’ll go a little further with stats – Molina is one year younger, has far superior ERA, BAA, WHIP and strikeouts.
Davis’ fastball can top out 1.1 mph higher, but the results say Molina is a better pitcher.
Was that a Minasian effort or one driven more by Moreno?
Given that only one GM of the Angels has pursued such a strategy during Moreno’s tenure, it seems that the rush-them-to-the-majors strategy was on Minasian.
McGreevy with a great game, but the Marlins pitcher is at 66 pitches through 6 innings. At some point, the batters need to make a decision not to swing at the first pitch they see.
I was surprised Minasian lasted as long as he did with his awful rush the draftees to the majors strategy.
Even more surprised Mozeliak “came out of retirement.”
Mozeliak is interim GM of Angels
Mo found a new job.
The problem for the last five years was trying to compete and rebuild at the same time. I hope they have learned something.
Gutting your player development and analytics staffs while throwing money at mediocre free agents isn’t trying to compete.
It’s paying lip service to the notion of trying to compete.
I am indifferent as to whether they hold May & Romero or sell them. I just don’t think it changes the direction of the club at all.
I understand what you’re saying, but can they get through Braves, Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies and make the World Series? I don’t think holding on, or even adding a piece or 2 does it. So stick to building for 2028.
They aren’t going to be World Series contenders for a long time. But holding on to May and Romero and lining DeWitt’s pockets with a little more money doesn’t set the rebuild back at all. Have any of the prospects acquired in 2023 paid off for the Cardinals?
So the Cardinals will abandon the rebuild in order to try to have two playoff games, with no guarantee that either one of them would be at home? That seems like the exact opposite of what Bloom has been talking about since last October.
It doesn’t abandon the rebuild at all, unless they start trading a bunch of prospects for rentals, which I don’t see them doing.
If they are up 2.5 games on the wild card at the trade deadline, I would expect them to hold on to May and Romero and see how far the current group can go.
If they are in the last wild card spot or worse, I would expect them to sell.
As far as Spangler, he would probably be at the top of my list as far as HS SS available to the Cardinals, but I don’t know if he is best player available at 13, I don’t like an injury history in HS players, and if there was ever a year to use a draft strategy to maximize talent drafted, this is probably it.
The one HS SS BA has linked to the Cardinals several times is Luke Williams. I would probably prefer Ethan Bass or Trey Ebel.
As far as college shortstops, I would go after Carson Kerse, with the idea his bat can probably carry him through the minors quickly and he can join Winn & Wetherholt as a 3B in 2-3 years. For SS, I would like Jake Schaffner.
