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A is Dattalo and B is Gurevitch.
Actually, you have them in reverse order.
Dattalo is a corner infield only guy and his path to the majors in my opinion is much less likely if he can’t tap into more game power.
I think it is easier for bat control guys to develop power than high strikeout guys to learn plate discipline. We have seen an organizational change in how players like Cho & Richardson are now being asked to go after more power at the expense of strikeouts, because their contact-oriented approach wasn’t working. So far for Dattalo, the contact-oriented approach is working.
I really feel like there is a drop off in talent after the first 6 or 7 picks. I really don’t know what I would do at this point but I do know some players like Helfrick I am fully out on.
I am guessing you listen to the BA podcasts on Youtube…they don’t see a lot of difference between guys 8-28, and Carlos Calazzo said a few weeks ago he would prefer multiple picks at the top of the draft (like the Cardinals) than choosing #8.
I think this would be a good year to strike a pre-draft underslot deal with a draft-eligible sophomore like Cade Townsend or Tegan Kuhns and then extend how deep you go in the draft taking Top 100 players. If you can save $500k – $1 million at 13, and use the full 5% bonus pool overage, that gives you a lot of ammunition later in the draft.
I’m going to highlight two players’ offensive seasons at Palm Beach this year.
Player A:
128 PA’s – .274/.398/.538/.936 – 20 BB/39 K – 6 HRPlayer B:
125 PA’s – .396/.480/.509/.989 – 15 BB/13 K – 1 HRI don’t think the Cardinals will spend any more than they have to until they are more competitive….
But if it was my money to spend, when the time is right, I’d look at locking up core members of the team for the future before paying expensive veterans on big multi-year contracts.
Agree on both statements.
I could imagine that when they were drawing 40K, 70% of seats would be sold before the season, but when attendance is much lower (mid-20K), there would be fewer seats sold before the season and more “hey, they’re better than expected, and kinda fun” seats sold, reducing the percentage sold before the season began to a considerable degree.
I actually think it’s the opposite. As attendance was falling, the walk-up 30% shrank to about zero.
This year, the Cardinals are averaging roughly 600 more fans per game than last year. That is about a 2% increase in overall attendance from last year. Most of that is probably fans willing to spend because the Cardinals are actually more competitive this year – i.e., the walk-up fans.
They tried a right-handed hitting-heavy lineup.
And in the process, showed they have learned nothing from their struggles the past few years.
People inherently think high schoolers are better than college players, but here is the reality:
75 percent of domestic Major League players were developed through college baseball, 88 percent of whom were not ranked in high school.
since 2023, 82 college players have reached the big leagues within two years of being drafted, more than 2016-2022 combined.
According to MLB, 75 percent of high school signees do not make the Majors, and those players have used only 12 percent of the Continuing Education funds in their Minor League contracts.
I like when we pride ourselves on good defense first.
It is amazing how quickly the Cardinals abandon the defensive side of the ball, year-after-year.
Worth a read – has some nuggets of success of players by academic level, too
To further what Brian was saying, about two years ago, DeWitt III said the Cardinals sell about 70% of their tickets before the season starts. So, they have rather good projections about where their next year’s revenues will be in terms of ticket & concession sales.
Factor in that they spent all last season unloading contracts with any value on them, May is the highest paid player on the Cardinals this year at $12 million, and yeah, it looks to be a few years before they will willingly spend money.
DeWitt has to make up for all his losses the last five years…
If Wetherholt wins ROY and May pitches well enough that the Cardinals are confident he will turn down a QO, that would be a phenomenal development.
Two extra picks in the draft next year (assuming they don’t take those away in the new CBA, which they might, because MLB likes to treat the Cardinals differently than other small market teams).
While the Cardinals may still cling to a wild card spot at the deadline Bloom has given every indication that he sticking to the long range plan.
I don’t think the Cardinals were expecting to be in contention at all this year. The fact that they are 2.5 games up in the wild card standings may change their minds. It is an easy way to generate an extra couple hundred grand in profits without additional investment.
Dattalo is about due for promotion, he has roughly the same number of PA’s at Palm Beach as Gurevitch did when he was promoted. After tonight, he is carrying a .398 batting average and .990 OPS.
Problem is, Peoria has more hitters than they know what to do with…
I was a bit surprised at a few people that Kyle & Karim liked in the draft, and here is why:
Data says you see about a 10% decrease between P4 college baseball and the MLB. 64% contact rates isn’t serviceable. But on the opposite side, a 14.6% chase rate is elite.
Helfrick is Luke Stevenson light from a data perspective, but produced better statistically. There are contact concerns at 75.6%, but that came with a 20% chase and a 92.1 mph average exit velocity.
Gracia has been a “data darling” for 3 years, but that stats have never aligned. Combining an 83.4% contact rate with a 21% chase is impressive bat to ball/plate discipline, but the 89.5 average exit velocity, which has not progressed in 3 college seasons, is worrisome.
I wrote about Lebron, and there is an infatuation with the athlete. A 73.7% contact rate and 23.8% chase is still a red flag, but if he develops the athleticism and tools screams 30/30.
Two of these guys have terrible contact rates, one has a bad average EV.
It does look like the new player development org is much more tolerant of strikeouts than the previous leadership. Power production is up, but so our strikeouts. It looks to be part of the new organizational philosophy.
I would expect them to stand pat at the deadline. Relief options come from Memphis.
I don’t think they are going to be sellers when DeWitt can make a few hundred grand extra by making the playoffs.
I agree. They need to release Stanek and Bruihl and bring up Rajcic and another reliever (I was thinking Mautz as a piggyback for Leahy).
Just received information that the 3 successful overturned calls that we had in the top of the 1st inning did set a record for one half inning of play.
I believe three batters have overturned three calls in one plate appearance.
The first was Matt McLain
The other two were Miguel Rojas and Salvador Perez.
In the case of batting Ohtani first, he has a career .377 OBP, and this year it is .421.
If that is the highest on the team, by all means, bat him first. Because only 26% of his hits are homeruns. You are increasing the chances of the team scoring the other 74% of the time he gets on base, and he gets to bat significantly more times than the number four hitter over the course of the year…
In terms of the metric that Brian brought up yesterday, my biggest qualm with it is that it subtracts homeruns from the numerator, so it penalizes a hitter for driving themselves in with a home run.
I would fashion the statistic more similar to the run expectancy table, where the chances of scoring a runner are based on what base the runner is on and how many outs there are. I would make it a counting statistic, like RBIs.
It would have to be based on the inverse of the probabilities. In the table I linked to, you have a .481 chance of scoring if you are the leadoff batter in an inning. Let’s say that was the probability of hitting a homerun (it is not, because it is heavily influenced by your ability to get on base, your teammates ability to advance you, and somebody’s ability to knock you in), you would be awarded (1-.481) for hitting that solo shot to start the inning. Because you are using the inverse, and the probability of scoring a runner decreases dramatically with two outs, you would get more points for two-out RBIs.
The one thing I would take out of the numerator are sacrifice flies, sacrifice bunts, and ground-out RBIs. They count against you in all situations except when there is a runner on third? They should still count against you.
the reason the top RBI guys have more opportunities is because they are run producers, and thus are put in the lineup to maximize their ability to drive in runs.
You are completely ignoring the fact they have to have people on base in front of them to drive in those runs.
