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November 24, 2023 at 5:56 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #238086
In terms of a backup SS, I think the Cardinals should sign Jose Iglesias. He played last year at $5 million, the year before at $3.5 million.
November 24, 2023 at 5:52 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #238084I’m not excited about Cease, I’d much rather have Glasnow.
Santos is good, but Detroit has three better relievers, the Red Sox have one and the Nationals have one.
If we could work a trade for Robert that doesn’t include Donovan or Gorman, I’d be for it.
From 2010-2014, the Cardinals drafted:
Round 1: 13 players, 64 WAR, 17 2 WAR seasons, 8 2 WAR seasons with the Cardinals
Round 2: 6 players, 4.5 WAR, 2 2 WAR seasons, 0 2 WAR seasons with the Cardinals
Rounds 3-6: 20 players, 5.9 WAR, 0 2 WAR seasonsFrom 2015-2019, the Cardinals drafted:
Round 1: 8 players, 14.6 WAR, 3 2 WAR seasons, 3 2 WAR seasons with the Cardinals
Round 2: 4 players, -0.4 WAR, 0 2 WAR seasons
Round 3: 5 players, 30.6 WAR, 7 2 WAR seasons, 3 2 WAR seasons with the Cardinals
Round 4: 5 players, 14.2 WAR, 3 3 WAR seasons, 3 3 WAR seasons with the Cardinals
Round 5: 5 players, 4.1 WAR, 1 2 WAR season, 1 2 WAR season with the Cardinals
Round 6: 5 players, 17.1 WAR, 4 2 WAR seasons, 4 2 WAR seasons with the CardinalsThey also drafted Donovan in the 7th round and Nootbaar in the 8th round, both of whom have a career 6.1 WAR and both of whom have two 2 WAR seasons.
It appears the Cardinals are figuring out how to draft in the middle rounds, but still stink at the first two rounds.
The org also has him 18th on their Top 30 list,
Is that the org, or is that MLB.com writers?
Crooks’s lukewarm 4th round pedigree is trumped by the org’s need to pump a rare glimmer of hope coming out of the pathetic international program.
I don’t think being drafted in a middle round hurts you as much as being drafted in rounds 1 & 2 helps you.
I haven’t researched it yet, but I think the Cardinals are better at drafting in rounds 4-6 than they are in rounds 1 & 2.
November 23, 2023 at 4:55 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #238039If the CWS want to shed Cease salary, BillyMo needs the flexibility to absorb more salary.
They are not trading to shed salary. They are trading because they finished 40 games under .500 in the weakest division in baseball and they have no illusions they should have been in first.
They are trading to maximize the prospects going back.
November 23, 2023 at 4:52 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #238038Jim Bowden on Acquiring Dylan Cease
“At the very least, the White Sox would get two top-10 prospects and one top-15 to top-25 prospect too. It would take a strong package from a good farm system.”
Now, the Cardinals aren’t a good farm system. So, the asking price would probably be more – like Hence, Graceffo & Roby.
I have Bernal a couple slots lower, but I admit I have sketchy info to work with.
Looking at his offense, he repeated in rookie ball at PB and his OPS dropped about 30 points from his first year at that level. Which is moving the wrong way. So that is why I am pumping the brakes on him a little bit.
2023 Palm Beach
Leonardo Bernal: Age 19 – .265/.381/.362/.743
Chase Davis: Age 21 – .212/.366/.269/.635Part of the reason Bernal repeated was because all the catchers were blocked by the Contreras signing. Herrera repeated AAA, Pages repeated AA. Crooks did advance, but he is a college bat that was promoted out of Palm Beach.
Two things to note about Bernal’s performance, his OBP dramatically increased, and his power sagged. But his ground out to fly ball ratio dramatically decreased, and the ballpark where he plays is known to suppress power. It rains every single day.
So nobody that pitched in Montgomery’s spot won a game after he left, I doubt that.
To your point, in 12 games, Dakota Hudson went 6-3 with a 4.98 ERA and was DFAd.
In 21 games with the Cardinals, Montgomery went 6-9 with a 3.42 ERA.
In 11 games with the Rangers, he went 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA.Do you blame all those losses with the Cardinals on Montgomery, or the team around him?
Did his pitching improve after going to the Rangers, or did he just have a better defense behind him?
Is Hudson the better pitcher because he had a better winning percentage with the Cardinals, or is Montgomery a better pitcher because he had a better ERA, better peripherals and could go longer into games?
9. Bernal
10. RajcicRajcic’s 1.01 WHIP was the lowest amongst the pitchers I profiled. What he excels at is avoiding the free pass. His 1.97 BB/9 was by far the lowest in the system. Even though his K/9 was a disappointing 8.99 (only beating Graceffo & McGreevy), he had the second best K:BB ratio thanks to his frugality with the free pass. His 2.48 ERA was the third best of the top pitchers, trailing only Ian Bedell, who is two years older and finished at the same level, and Zack Showalter, who only pitched 31.1 innings. Rajcic pitched the fourth most innings.
November 22, 2023 at 6:10 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #237972Sign two of: Ryu, Lugo, Clevinger
Then start working on trades. Negotiate from a position of strength, not need.
Oh, and if the bullpen can cut down on blown saves by 25%, that’s an extra 7 wins
Well, a full season of Montgomery gives you an extra four wins over 2/3 of a season of Montgomery.
So, let’s say they pick up 3 wins by having Gibson + Lynn instead of Flaherty + Wainwright.
Now you add 4 wins for a full season of Montgomery.
Let’s say the analytics department figures out that our left-handed hitters hit left-handed pitchers better than their right-handed replacements do. That’s another 5 wins.
Let’s say you use Jordan Walker exclusively at DH. That’s an extra 2 wins.
Let’s say you use Tommy Edman instead of Masyn Winn at SS – that’s an extra 2 wins.
We’ve just improved by 16 wins, minimum.
Yeah, the only two aces they should be in on are Yamamoto and Montgomery.
JJ – you have Thompson both in the rotation and in the bullpen. I get that he is a swingman, but…
They replaced $23 million in salary for Wainwright + Flaherty with $23 million in salary for Lynn + Gibson…If Lynn doesn’t fall off a cliff, that should net us an extra 2-3 wins this year. Only 17 more to go!!!
I am hoping their plan is to sign a #1 and a #2, and bump Matz & Thompson to the bullpen (or trade Matz).
Part of their innings crunch would be solved if they piggy-backed future starters with current starters.
Rotation:
SP1: TBD + bullpen
SP2: TBD + bullpen
SP3: Mikolas (1-5) + Thompson (6-9)
SP4: Gibson (1-5) + Matz (6-9)
SP5: Lynn (1-5) + Liberatore (6-9)This allows future starters to be stretched out and on a development path to take over starting roles next year. Saves the bullpen, which can still be used to put out fires.
November 22, 2023 at 3:51 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #237958Don’t worry, Bling. Goldschmidt will be traded at the deadline this year.
I don’t think the Cardinals front office is capable of thinking outside the box.
But they could sign Ryu and Lugo for roughly $25 million per year. Have Lugo be the opener and throw 5 innings per game, have Ryu come in and throw four innings per game. Combined, you have an ace that gives the bullpen one day off per week and absorbs 280 innings per year. You also have insurance if another starter goes down. You also have trade assets for the trade deadline.
Except if they are traded at the deadline, they are going to contenders…
I don’t think he pivoted after hearing numbers, he pivoted several weeks ago when he said payroll would be in line with last year’s projection and they needed starting pitchers to absorb innings.
It could just as easily be worry about falling revenues when Bally Sports implodes.
When Bally’s does implode, DeWitt and his investors can buy the remaining % for 30 cents on the dollar.
Another thing is that by not spending big money for free agent pitchers, they should have plenty of cash available to extend Goldschmidt after the 2024 season. Personally, I’d like to see Goldy retire wearing a Cardinal uniform.
I think Goldy is all but guaranteed to be traded at the deadline, unless they do something drastic to improve the roster.
November 21, 2023 at 4:59 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021-2023 #237881Paul Goldschmidt is now the top-rated player to be moved at the trade deadline.
Would any of lasts year’s bullpen arms benefitted from the third and fourth starters throwing 380 innings. Would that have lowered the staff era? Could adding two innings eaters sharpen the pen to the point that the staff era goes down?
The bullpen had a lower ERA than the starters last year.
Which is better, a guy coming off Tommy John who will likely give you 120-150 innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball (Ryu), or a guy who pitched 180 innings of 5.73 ERA ball?
Goldy & Arenado have to be thrilled
I had a scout from Houston tell me three years ago that their metrics said five number three starters get you in the playoffs every time compared to a traditional one through five.
Yeah, but we have three #4’s and a #5
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