- This topic has 48 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 1 week ago by
.
-
Posts
-
That is reality. If a pitcher can pitch in a way his body will tolerate so that he can stay on the mound, then the next bar is he has to figure out how to pitch effectively whilst still pitching in a way his body tolerates.
That’s a good Blingism.
Bling, I’m curious who your top 5 Cards pitching prospects are? I generally know who you don’t like and the only pitcher I recall you liking is Cornwell. I thought you liked Hansen as well but you made a comment recently his one injured once for a brief period and you included him in the injured group.
My top five pitchers right now is Doyle, Franklin, Mautz, Cjintje, Lin. 6 and 7 are Yhoiker and Mason Molina. Hjerpe, Henderson and Clark are at the bottom of my top 10 due to injury uncertainty, but not out of it because a return to previous form does not seem implausible based on what we know. I had considered Cornwell a prospect because he could stay on the mound and reached AA in 2024 holding his own, albeit barely. I had him ranked above guys who couldn’t stay on the mound no matter how much better their stuff was, because it didn’t matter how good their stuff was. Obviously, he hasn’t worked out, and I don’t even know what his current status is.
Hansen is a different kind of issue. I dropped him off my top list not long ago because IMO he will never succeed if he stays in the Cardinals organization. Why? He is not a fastball pitcher, and as far as I can tell all development efforts have been trying to make his fastball better, which at this point is not going to happen. When somebody at his level has an 89 MPH fastball and he is throwing it 45% of the time, that is not going to work going forward. Its too bad. He has great control and can stay on the mound so there is much to work with. Maybe its not too late and the new staff will help him use what he’s got instead of trying to stuff him in a hole he doesn’t fit in. In my mind, Mautz is kind of similar. His FB is also unexciting but he can throw it at 93 instead of 89, so he can get by a little better throwing it 45% of the time, but the problem, as with Hansen, is that he’s throwing what isn’t a great pitch 45% of the time. The org just needs to be smarter and better at developing the pitchers who can stay on the mound.
ATM, I looked through my notes and don’t have anything about injury concern with Hansen. I am not sure what my comment was or what I was thinking at the time, so I cannot respond to that part of your comment. He is doing ok, but like I said, I am frustrated he is still throwing the FB almost half the time.
Bling, I very much agree with the sentiment of a pitcher needing to be able to actually pitch in order to be highly ranked. I have never understood the rationale of ranking guys in the top 10 who can’t even get through 10 innings on the mound before breaking. Potential and “stuff” doesn’t mean anything while you are sitting on the IL. Every pitcher will get hurt occassionally but when it becomes chronic it has to be a factor to consider if you are living in the real world.
During last year’s rankings I had people falling out of their chairs because I had Hansen in my top 15. I still like him although I know that best case scenario he is a number 4 or 5 starter and most likely he is a reliever if he makes it to the big leagues but he answers the bell and gets outs. I could care less how hard he throws.
I was also high on Mason Molina in last year’s discussions because I had seem him pitch several times in person while he was in college and I thought he was flying under the radar in the draft. He has had a solid season at Springfield this year and is probably on more people’s radar now. I know I will have him ranked higher than our annual IL warriors.
Molina was under my radar until he got to AA, but that is not unusual because I have a strong proximity bias. With lower level players, and most especially low A and complex league, my feeling is if you get lathered up over enough of them you’ll hit now and then, which accomplishes nothing other than proving the law of averages works. So let them filter up a bit where ranking can be tethered to something less illusory than how whippy their 19 year old arm is. Even with a decently pedigreed and successful guy like Franklin I wonder if more advanced hitters will just wait him out. Force him to come over the plate more. Then what? I don’t know. We will begin to get an idea when he gets to Springfield.
Prospects are prospects for a reason. You’re only making a best guess as to how things will play out in the long run. Some value outright talent and some value results, and some like a mix. The Cards have been pretty good at building up average type players over the last 15 years, but not stars. Hopefully the Bloom regime will be able to turn some of that higher end talent into major league star power, like other teams manage to do regularly.
Bling thanks for sharing your list as it helps me what you do value. You’re still in on the top pitchers and the one that surprises me is Franklin at least for you. I think mine is Doyle, Franklin, Fajardo, Cjintje, Mathews at this point. I’m stubborn on Mathews probably but hope he can make some tweaks to throw strikes again.
the one that surprises me is Franklin at least for you
I kind of surprise myself there too, but there hasn’t been too many real good pitching prospects once I exclude the sore arm guys. I do also have Fajardo, who is still down in A ball like Franklin, but he looks like he has real good control. He is not a FB pitcher and my fear is they will try making him one and he will blow out his arm trying to get the velo necessary for that. If necessary, turn him into a reliver at some point, just don’t blow out his freakin arm trying to throw 98 mph. There are quite a few pitchers at Springfield right now that I am starting to look at more seriously, both starters and relievers. I will probably do a major shakeup of my list in a month or so, assuming I have time to do the work.
I am going to throw out a few observations/thoughts from my earlier post.
Hjerpe is 25, hasn’t pitched in two years, and is realistically going to be at least 27 before he tastes the big leagues…
Mathews is also 25, is in his third season at AAA, and has an ERA 2.3 runs higher than Mautz, who is a year younger and in his first season at AAA…
Similarly, Fajardo is 19 and in A+, as is Tanner Franklin. He has a comparable ERA and WHIP to Franklin, is three years younger, and pitches an average of 2/3 of an inning longer in games. Franklin may have better “stuff”, but based on age, level and results, I’d probably have to give the edge to Fajardo for now.
I like Fajardo well enough but my info on A level guys is limited. I can’t say whether he is a better prospect than some AA guys that have recently popped onto my radar. In looking at the AA guys i think we need to factor in that there is a clear path to the show for a high performing reliever, so not to penalize that without careful consideration.
I also really like Fajardo and had him in my top 10 overall at the start of this season. I continue to be super impressed with him each outing.
I’m also still a Matthews fan. He can turn things on and off at will. That’s going to come in handy soon. He should get himself right by July or August and when that happens, he’ll look like the best pitcher in the system.
I’m not sure what to think of Doyle or Franklin yet. They are both obviously very talented, but whether or not they can last at least 5-6 innings per game is a big question mark and one that probably won’t be answered this season. Still, they have to be considered top 5.
I’ll put Hjerpe at 5. Still high hopes. We should see him soon. He could potentially be in the big leagues this season in relief if the Cardinals are still competitive in September. By next season, he should be starting again. He completely flummoxes hitters. I’m just not sure he stays a starter either.
Molina, Davis, Holiday, Graham, Mautz, Henderson, and Roby are all very interesting. Lin is a bit of a crapshoot. I wouldn’t bet on him. Also some other very young arms and a reclamation project in Dutkanych and Ethan Young that could each play out positively. Lots to be excited about. Odle could be interesting, but I think he goes to relief. Hence and Clarke are too broken to count on.
There’s a fair chance that the top 10 pitchers in the minors now includes guys who will be relievers only. If I had to give my top 10 right now I’d say:
1. Doyle
2. FranklinThese guys are the no brainers, to me. We are hoping that one of them is our ace in training. The results so far have been decent. Oddly, I think the reliever risk is higher for Doyle than Franklin, right now. But both are deservedly top 100 prospects IMO.
3. Cijntje
4. FajardoThese two are the next clear tier. Cijntje is a little less polished than I thought he’d be coming in. Fajardo just reminds me of Gordon Graceffo, but hopefully the Cards can turn him into a starter.
5. Mathews
6. Lin
7. Mautz
8. Davis
9. Van Dyke
10. HendersonThis is a bit of a crap shoot. Most of these guys (the ones that are pitching at least) have been streaky, but all (again, assuming health) have shown enough that you could see them helping the big league club in the next few years. Hjerpe I would like to put into the top 10 but he’s in the witness protection program still, it seems.
Its been a year since Mathews came back from his shut down, so thinking he will be right in a couple months seems dubious, but we can hope. I don’t think he can turn things on and off at will, rather, he cannot perform consistently.
We don’tknow how/if Hjerpe’s unconventional mechanics will affect his recovery timeline. I agree he should start pitching sometime this summer. Given 90 pro innings, 15 above A ball, and a two year layoff, a debut this year seems impossibly remote. I could see a lengthy rehab stint in the low levels working out of the complex in Jupiter. Maybe some late season work at AAA once everything else is done for the year.
I do agree that Hjerpe still has a lot of ifs but I don’t think the idea of him pitching out of the ML bullpen by September is quite as far fetched as you believe. I’m almost certain he could have done it and been effective before he got hurt. However, the goal was to make him a starter. I’m only saying it could happen and I wouldn’t be that surprised if it did.
As for Matthews, if I were a gambler, I’d bet heavily on him being on the big league roster this season. He’s going to get his pitches under better control. Right now he’s just tinkering around to figure out what works and what doesn’t.
I forgot to add Cijntje to my others who are interesting group. I actually have never watched him pitch yet. Not sure why I keep missing him but I do. I’ve only seen highlights. He’s certainly interesting.
If you don't subscribe to The Cardinal Nation to read our #stlcards Top 50 prospect commentary, but just want the rankings, here they are. (But we hope you will subscribe, too!) https://t.co/1WyRcf4Egf https://t.co/IGkJTulIA1
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) June 19, 2026
I’m going to highlight two players’ offensive seasons at Palm Beach this year.
Player A:
128 PA’s – .274/.398/.538/.936 – 20 BB/39 K – 6 HRPlayer B:
125 PA’s – .396/.480/.509/.989 – 15 BB/13 K – 1 HRA is Dattalo and B is Gurevitch. Both have impressive stat lines but also it is a small sample and both have very high BABIPs although especially Datallo.
But prospect rankings are much more than just a 125 PA sample of stats. Datallo has impressed and his underlying data shows 70 grade plate discipline and 60 grade bat control with 45 raw power. Gurevitch is much more power focused with 70 raw power but less hit with 40 grade bat control and 45 grade swing decisions.
If you want more contact, Dattalo is your guy. But in terms of pure upside Gurevitch has a chance to be an impact bat which he does need to play what will likely be 1B. Dattalo is a corner infield only guy and his path to the majors in my opinion is much less likely if he can’t tap into more game power.
A is Dattalo and B is Gurevitch.
Actually, you have them in reverse order.
Dattalo is a corner infield only guy and his path to the majors in my opinion is much less likely if he can’t tap into more game power.
I think it is easier for bat control guys to develop power than high strikeout guys to learn plate discipline. We have seen an organizational change in how players like Cho & Richardson are now being asked to go after more power at the expense of strikeouts, because their contact-oriented approach wasn’t working. So far for Dattalo, the contact-oriented approach is working.
Sorry yes I had the correct labeling in my head but didn’t post them with the correct label.
I think it is easier for bat control guys to develop power than high strikeout guys to learn plate discipline.
It isn’t like Gurevitch has bad plate discipline. His K% isn’t ideal but his chase rates are about league average. Kyle has stated in the podcasts that he sees signs in Gurevitch is improving and adjusting to pro ball and he expects his K rate to drop as he adjusts more.
Datallo at least has good EVs showing he does have power so I have more hope for him than most bat control guys as does have untapped game power. As far as what is working, what Gurevitch and Dattalo are both working at least for minor league stats. Gurevitch is hitting almost .300 so I’m unsure how stats wise he wouldn’t be a success so far. But realistically the surface level stats don’t matter as much. I want to see them making strides in development, but at the end of the day as well it doesn’t matter what stats they put up in A ball but what progress they have developmentally.
One thing to remember about A level 3B-1B types is that hardly any of them will be able to play 3B at the ML level. It is a matter which is never sorted until the end, but in this case may have to be addressed sooner unless Datallo is to be kept a level below Gurevitch. Whist Gurevitch’s superior draft/college pedigree suggests that is appropriate, Datallo’s numbers are compelling. It is a minor thing, but how it is sorted will be interesting.
unless Datallo is to be kept a level below Gurevitch
Well they are both at Peoria now. We will have to see how the 3B playing time is sorted out.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.