- This topic has 1,001 replies, 48 voices, and was last updated 2 hours, 9 minutes ago by
.
-
Posts
-
. @kyler416 and I probe the real origin of “Tarps Off” and move into the #stlcards catching, current and future. The new BA top 30 is noted, including focus on Xavier Cruz. Also discussed are FCL players to watch, promotions of Van Dyke and Graham, the Peoria rotation, 2026 draft… pic.twitter.com/l6XYZBooJ6
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 20, 2026
Apologies to some Spotify users. This week's podcast is not showing up on the Show page with the other episodes. However, it is available. Here is the direct link while I try to resolve the problem. https://t.co/riJCfuz3Zs pic.twitter.com/WGDA0lxouP
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 20, 2026
I enjoyed this week’s episode, as always. As the high voter on Won Bin Cho, there’s still some time to go before that pick is validated, but he’s on a nice hot streak lately.
. @kyler416 and I discuss his trip to Cincinnati and missing Brycen Mautz’ debut. Bryan Torres’ rise to MLB is celebrated. Injury updates for Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe and Tekoah Roby, promotions of Jacob Odle and Brian Holiday, and league Pitchers of the Week Braden Davis and… pic.twitter.com/R8jKpktEnX
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) May 27, 2026
I really appreciated the update on Hence and Hjerpe. Is there any digging that you and Kyle can do on Padilla and Deniel Ortiz? Both are 2 of the more exciting position players prospects and no idea what is going on with them.
I never noticed you guys do talk a lot more about pitchers until you said something about a fan commenting that. The Cards system does probably have more interesting pitching prospects than hitters though.
The Cards system does probably have more interesting pitching prospects than hitters though.
I don’t know about that. Our ranked pitchers, if they are on the field, aren’t doing very well (except four of them). None of them is throwing 5.0 innings per start. Maybe that is organizational philosophy. But I don’t know how they are going to throw 5.0 innings at the major league level if they can’t do it in the minors.
Nice to see Hunter Dobbins take it to the Cubs last Sunday. He was right on the corners when he really needed it. It will be interesting to see if he can do it with some consistency. Nice to hear you guys mentioning Ixan Henderson. I’ve had high hopes for him since the Cardinals drafted him. I don’t know why he’s not ranked higher in TCN rankings. Finally, this is the first time I’ve heard of Jacob Odel. You guys spoke high enough of him to make me pay attention. I did my own search for Jacob Odel and couldn’t find anything worth mentioning.
Looking forward to tomorrows WWW.
. @kyler416 and I discuss #stlcards recent roster moves and future possibilities Blaze Jordan and Joshua Baez. TCN’s Player of the Month winner Won-Bin Cho and finalists were covered as were recent standouts Luis Gastelum. Braden Davis and Ryan Mitchell. Minor league transactions… pic.twitter.com/AvizIGinPJ
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) June 3, 2026
. @kyler416 and I cover recent #stlcards roster moves including Dobbins, Church and Scott and what we might expect at the trade deadline. Activations include Hence, Hjerpe, Ortiz and Dutkanych. Exploding offense at Peoria, including Jesus Baez, Kross and McGee, was discussed.… pic.twitter.com/BkxqPDEbM6
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) June 10, 2026
I enjoyed the discussion as usual. One thing I want to comment on is that I don’t think Church has reached the peak of his development yet. It’s still wait and see with him. I think he plays hungrier than Scott was playing. IMHO, Scott would rather let the ball hit the bottom of the w outfield wall and bounce back to him rather than risk running up to the wall for the catch. Same goes for some of the fly balls hit his way. It seemed like he was giving up on catching the ball and satisfied with just letting it hit the ground in front of him rather than going all out to catch it.
Don't miss this week's pod! @kyler416 and I are joined by @KareemSSN. We discuss moves including Dos Santos and Richardson and the return of Padilla. The #stlcards strategy for their early 2026 draft picks was a major focus, including HS vs. college, hitters vs. pitchers, budget… pic.twitter.com/UvF9tqLCyE
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) June 17, 2026
I was a bit surprised at a few people that Kyle & Karim liked in the draft, and here is why:
Data says you see about a 10% decrease between P4 college baseball and the MLB. 64% contact rates isn’t serviceable. But on the opposite side, a 14.6% chase rate is elite.
Helfrick is Luke Stevenson light from a data perspective, but produced better statistically. There are contact concerns at 75.6%, but that came with a 20% chase and a 92.1 mph average exit velocity.
Gracia has been a “data darling” for 3 years, but that stats have never aligned. Combining an 83.4% contact rate with a 21% chase is impressive bat to ball/plate discipline, but the 89.5 average exit velocity, which has not progressed in 3 college seasons, is worrisome.
I wrote about Lebron, and there is an infatuation with the athlete. A 73.7% contact rate and 23.8% chase is still a red flag, but if he develops the athleticism and tools screams 30/30.
Two of these guys have terrible contact rates, one has a bad average EV.
I definitely am not in on Helfrick. His contact data is very concerning and I don’t think he is going at all. His college power numbers look fine on paper but I just don’t think he is going to have enough hit to reach any real power. You also have to look at how juiced college bats are at the moment so I don’t know how real his power numbers have been.
I really feel like there is a drop off in talent after the first 6 or 7 picks. I really don’t know what I would do at this point but I do know some players like Helfrick I am fully out on.
I did really enjoy the discussion this week going so in depth on the draft and the guest appearance of Kareem.
I’m curious on people’s thoughts of Tyler Spangler. I think he will be at the combine so we can finally see him soon. He looked like a hit / power guy who can play the left side of the infield last year. The problem has just been hin being out all year injured and a strong commitment to Stanford. Maybe in an ideal world they can underslot a college bat at 13 and then give a large overslot to Spangler in the comp selection.
Just a minor technical note, but audio wise Brian you are a good amount quieter than Kyle and Kareem. Kareem’s volume is quite high but maybe that is since I had the volume high on my drive to hear Brian.
I really feel like there is a drop off in talent after the first 6 or 7 picks. I really don’t know what I would do at this point but I do know some players like Helfrick I am fully out on.
I am guessing you listen to the BA podcasts on Youtube…they don’t see a lot of difference between guys 8-28, and Carlos Calazzo said a few weeks ago he would prefer multiple picks at the top of the draft (like the Cardinals) than choosing #8.
I think this would be a good year to strike a pre-draft underslot deal with a draft-eligible sophomore like Cade Townsend or Tegan Kuhns and then extend how deep you go in the draft taking Top 100 players. If you can save $500k – $1 million at 13, and use the full 5% bonus pool overage, that gives you a lot of ammunition later in the draft.
As far as Spangler, he would probably be at the top of my list as far as HS SS available to the Cardinals, but I don’t know if he is best player available at 13, I don’t like an injury history in HS players, and if there was ever a year to use a draft strategy to maximize talent drafted, this is probably it.
The one HS SS BA has linked to the Cardinals several times is Luke Williams. I would probably prefer Ethan Bass or Trey Ebel.
As far as college shortstops, I would go after Carson Kerse, with the idea his bat can probably carry him through the minors quickly and he can join Winn & Wetherholt as a 3B in 2-3 years. For SS, I would like Jake Schaffner.
This week, @kyler416 and I open with a discussion of recent promotions of Dattalo, Cho and Jesus Baez then discuss Lars Nootbaar and Joshua Baez. A review of key changes to The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 Prospect List for June follows. Standouts moving up include Hjerpe, Braden… pic.twitter.com/clc3R0BMyd
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) June 24, 2026
I have the advantage of watching after the news of Hjerpe having a set back, but even if he were fully healthy he still doesn’t even crack my top 5. I understand Kyle is biased there though.
The pitchers I feel I struggle to eval but I think as a whole they have disappointed this year. Davis at 13 is maybe around where he belongs but he hasn’t stood out.
Davis at 13 is maybe around where he belongs but he hasn’t stood out.
I would say hasn’t stood out amidst select company, that being the others in Springfield’s rotation. My use of stats tends toward brutalism, I admit, but with starters I like to pull up their game log on BRef and scan down the game score column, mostly to judge consistency, or lack thereof. I can compare, for example, Davis with Molina and the others in the AA rotation. Davis has logged two starts with a game score in the 70s, whereas Molina recently logged his first. But Davis has been all over, from 20s and 30s to 70s. Molina has gone all year without logging a game score below mid 40s. That consistency stands out. Davis’s inconsistency is typical of the others in the rotation.
My use of stats tends toward brutalism, I admit, but with starters I like to pull up their game log on BRef and scan down the game score column, mostly to judge consistency, or lack thereof.
I’ll go a little further with stats – Molina is one year younger, has far superior ERA, BAA, WHIP and strikeouts.
Davis’ fastball can top out 1.1 mph higher, but the results say Molina is a better pitcher.
I am huge a Mason Molina fan. I hope he continues to matriculate his way up the rankings.
Bling, I am impressed with your research and use of stats there. You almost sound wonky. Be careful or you going to get kicked out of the chomper club…LOL
In this week's pod, we open with hot Palm Beach hitters Brayden Smith and Noah Weingartner. New Memphis pitcher Mason Molina is next along with speculation about other deadline deals potentially coming. Leadership changes with the Cardinals and Angels, now and perhaps ahead, are… pic.twitter.com/zAP1y7tyAJ
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 1, 2026
. @kyler416 and I open with the All-Star Game, Futures Game and the odd draft schedule this coming weekend. Players covered include Gastelum, Mautz, Rodriguez, Doyle, Hjerpe, Molina, Rincon, Nuñez and Mathews plus hitters Peña and Cho. We close with a final preview of the… pic.twitter.com/m7jJlb6P0S
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) July 8, 2026
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.